Predicting the Eastern Conference Standings 2014/2015 Season

[J-Ves]

Marc Stein's first NBA Power Rankings:

http://espn.go.com/nba/powerrankings

He has the Wiz 9th overall and 3rd in the East.

I think the east is a little over represented in that ranking. 7 of the top 16 teams are in the east, which seems to indicate there is parity between the conferences, but thats unlikely. I think the Wizards are rated a little too high as well. Houston, Toronto, and Memphis should be above the Wizards, IMO.

[Dat2U]

I'm not too big on a team to make a big leap that hasn't gotten out of the first round of the playoffs.

Tell that to Boston the year they acquired Garnett, Allen & Pierce or to Miami when they acquired LeBron & Bosh.

You think it really makes a difference THIS SEASON that Cleveland didn't make it past the 1st round last year? No.

It's all about the talent, everything else is fan/media created dribble.

14-15 Cavs aren't in the same caliber as the 07-08 Celtics and 10-11 Heat.

Not every team is going to gel into successful team in one year.

Aren't in the same caliber??? Huh? LeBron, Love & Irving doesn't put them in the same caliber as previous LeBron led teams or the Pierce/Garnett/Allen Celtics?

The Cavs are a mortal lock for the Finals. Not the East Finals. The Finals. They match up quite well with those teams you've mentioned and unlike the Celtics & Heat, don't have any clear cut competition in the East. The only reason they don't get there is a catastrophic injury.

[mhd]

I think Toronto (if they played the Cavs in the playoffs) would be a handful for the Cavs. Derozen has a great summer, and Lowry is a pitbull. Ross needs to step up, and I like Amir Johnson, Jonas, and Patterson. Plus, they have the expirings (Hayes, Fields) to get someone if they needed to.

[Hidden Eye]

Tell that to Boston the year they acquired Garnett, Allen & Pierce or to Miami when they acquired LeBron & Bosh.

You think it really makes a difference THIS SEASON that Cleveland didn't make it past the 1st round last year? No.

It's all about the talent, everything else is fan/media created dribble.

14-15 Cavs aren't in the same caliber as the 07-08 Celtics and 10-11 Heat.

Not every team is going to gel into successful team in one year.

Aren't in the same caliber??? Huh? LeBron, Love & Irving doesn't put them in the same caliber as previous LeBron led teams or the Pierce/Garnett/Allen Celtics?

The Cavs are a mortal lock for the Finals. Not the East Finals. The Finals. They match up quite well with those teams you've mentioned and unlike the Celtics & Heat, don't have any clear cut competition in the East. The only reason they don't get there is a catastrophic injury.

14-15 Cavs are overrated and they aren't a guranteed lock for anything. Guranteed lock to play No Defense . Bunch of old players and young players who never done anything. They aren't a lock for anything.

[dckingsfan]

Hehehe... when was the last time Lebron wasn't in the finals. Sorry - saying they aren't a lock for anything is silly. Maybe if they have injuries - otherwise they are the clear favorites.

[Sluggerface]

Hehehe... when was the last time Lebron wasn't in the finals. Sorry - saying they aren't a lock for anything is silly. Maybe if they have injuries - otherwise they are the clear favorites.

They're not a lock for anything because if they go to the finals with the amount of playoff experience that they have divided among their starting five excluding Lebron, IN THEIR FIRST YEAR with a rookie head coach, it would be NBA history. This isn't like when Bron joined Wade and Bosh, both of those guys knew what it took, and Spo had proven himself to be a damn good coach. The playoffs is an entirely different animal. It is THE highest level of competitive basketball play in the world, and outside of Love, nobody on that team is an elite off-ball player. Lebron has spoiled people into thinking making the finals is easy. He would be the first person to tell you otherwise. The Cavs are going to have growing pains, and they still have glaring holes on that roster, just like the Heat did during their entire run.

[Illmatic12]

Even if the Cavs struggle early on, they're most certainly going to have it together by the playoffs.

Let's be real.. in the current Eastern conference, any team with three All-Stars (one being the #1 player in the game) is a lock for the Finals.

[hands11]

http://www.csnwashington.com/basketball ... vance-east

The prediction: Yes. The playoffs are all about matchups and a No. 3 seed is a reasonable expectation this season though hardly a lock. The Wizards will pose a challenge but the Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls, as long as Derrick Rose is back to his old self, are Nos. 1 and 2. Marcin Gortat thought the Wizards were a 50-win team last season, even when the Wizards were just .500.

This season, he’ll be spot on though the Toronto Raptors will have a lot to say about that. Given the experience the Wizards gained in advancing to the second round of the playoffs, the retooling of the bench and adding the likes of Paul Pierce, Kris Humphries and DeJuan Blair to strengthen the paint, anything less than 50 wins is a letdown. It's conceivable that the Wizards could stall in the second round again or make it to the conference finals. As long as they take a step forward this season, whatever that turns out to be, the Wizards could be in prime position to make an NBA Finals run in 2015-16 -– before the summer of free-agent-to-be Kevin Durant.

[dckingsfan]

According to the board - less than 48 wins would be a letdown

[Sluggerface]

This is how I want the standings to shake out.

1) Chicago Bulls 57-25
2) Cleveland Cavaliers 55-27
3) Toronto Raptors 52-30
4) Washington Wizards 50-32
5) Brooklyn Nets 46 - 36
6) Miami Heat 45 - 37
7) Charlotte Hornets 43-39
8) New York Knicks 41-41

Yes that's right. I have Atlanta missing the playoffs. They finish with the same record as New York but lose due to a tiebreaker. No way Carmelo misses the playoffs for a second straight year.

And this is how I want to playoffs to shake out, for maximum entertainment value.

First Round:

Chicago Vs. New York -

Can't ask for a better matchup 1-8 matchup in the east. The shadow government of Phil Jackson vs. the iron curtain of Thibs. The return of playoff Melo vs the return of playoff Rose. Two obscene markets going against each other. Unfortunately James Dolan pulls off another caper on his suffering fans by trotting out this roster instead of rebuilding. There's just not enough talent here for New York. Chicago in 5 games.

Cleveland Vs. Charlotte -

Because the world cannot get enough of Lance Stephenson vs. Lebron. Can you imagine how wild Stephenson would be going against this team? Cleveland walks through this series with a series of blowouts, but Charlotte takes some shots at some of Cleveland's weaknesses inside and reveals a chink in their armor. Cleveland in 6 games.

Toronto Vs. Miami -

The most northern team vs. the most southern team. It's a clash of cultures. A rabid fanbase vs. a fanbase that simply isn't there (who would blame them if you lived in palm beach.) Toronto is anxiously waiting to prove their worth as 3rd seed and an upper echelon team. They're eagerly waiting to finally get out of the first round, and a match up against another rag tag old team, one in a state of flux after losing the best player in the world, should be easy pickings. Right? Wrong. Wade turns back the clock to have a dominating series, Chris Bosh becomes unstoppable and lights up the raptors from all over the court, Spoelstra shows off his elite coaching chops and goes blow to blow with Casey. Heat in 7 and Casey gets fired a week afterwards.

Washington Vs. Brooklyn -

This series isn't about Wall. It's not about Beal. It's not about Lopez, or Williams, Jay Z, or anyone. Only one thing matters in this series. Pierce..... vs. Garnett... in. the. post. It's the match up of a lifetime. Two hall of famers on the razors edge of their careers. Former teammates. Former champions. You just can't write storybook endings like these. Unfortunately for Brooklyn, they just don't have the athleticism to keep up with the Wizards. Washington in 6.

Second Round:

Chicago vs Washington -

The only playoffs rematch in the eastern conference, and this ones a doozy. Bulls are looking to avenge their embarrassing loss last season. Wizards are trying to break through the ceiling. It will be physical. Every game will be close. We'll probably have 3 games go into overtime. Wall and Rose will have one of the greatest PG duels in recent memories, but Washington has the Bulls number. Beal ends the series in game 7 with an overtime game winning 3, because why the hell not.

Cleveland vs Miami -

This series needs to happen. This series HAS to happen. Stuff like this just doesn't happen in the NBA. Wade and Bosh turn in the performances of their lives yet again. Love and Irving come into their playoff selves, as the Cavs face their first real test. Both teams trade blows until Lebron delivers one of the greatest playoff performances of his life in a coup de grace in game 7 against his former team.

Eastern Conference Finals:

Cleveland vs Washington -

As if there could be any other series of this magnitude for Wizards fans. There they are, 4 games from climbing out of the doldrums of the NBA cellar - The Jan Veselys, The Steez's, The shaqtin a fool's, the lapdances, the Ima die for this's -from making NBA history. The only thing in the way, The perennial king of the eastern conference. The franchise that utterly destroyed one of the greatest teams Washington ever placed on the court. 3 times. Back to back to back. The series goes even going into game 5, with both teams take one from each court. Cleveland absolutely blows out the Wizards in game 5 in a soul crushing loss. John Wall responds the only way he knows how, by fighting back. He wills this team to a game 6 victory with an incredible performance, and hits a game winner over Lebron, with Gilbert Arenas sitting courtside, BECAUSE WHY THE HELL NOT. With all of the pressure back on Cleveland, Kyrie and Love buckle and fail the way all Lebron teams fail. John turns in another incredible performance and posts a triple double in a game 7 victory sending the Wizards to an absolutely improbable finals.

[Kanyewest]

I'm not too big on a team to make a big leap that hasn't gotten out of the first round of the playoffs.

The thing is the leap isn't that far for a team like Cleveland to make it because the two Eastern Conference finalists have taken major steps backwards in Miami and Indiana. 3 of the 4 teams Eastern Conference teams that made it to the 2nd round have regressed if you include Brooklyn since they lost Pierce and Livington and their head coach in Jason Kidd. Garnett isn't getting any younger and it remains to be seen if the Nets can even get to the playoffs. And here's hoping that the Pierce move is a good signing or Porter/Rice develops, otherwise Washington is taking a step back as well.

And the teams that got eliminated from the 1st round are adding major pieces
Atlanta - Al Horford, Adreian Payne (BTW- they took the Pacers to 7 games while the Wizards only took them to 6. Hibbert showing up may have had something to do with that)
Chicago- Derrick Rose, Doug McDermott, Pau Gasol, Mirotic
Charlotte Hornets- Noah Vonleh, Lance Stephenson

That being said, I'm also curious to see how Cleveland looks, whether Irving, Love, and Varejao can make it through a whole season without being injured. How does Cleveland stop a team with good bigs like Nene/Gortat, Noah/Gasol?

I'm also not willing to write off Miami who got Deng and McRoberts. And just maybe Dwayne Wade has something left in the tank and maybe Bosh can play better especially with more touches.

[Kanyewest]

I would probably go:

Tier 1 - all between 51-55 wins. Probably all within a win or two of each other in the standings.

1 - Toronto. Most continuity from last season's team in the EC. Good coach and FO. Best SG in the conference and second best PG. Quality from 1-10 or so. Almost all of their key players are in their primes or are young guys that you can expect improvement from. And an piece of crap division that they might go 15-1 or 16-0 against. No really elite teams means I think this is their year they sneak in a 1 seed.

2 - Cleveland. Best SF and PF in the conference and maybe the two best players overall. Though they're probably going to play both up a position at PF and C. Probably the third best PG in the conference. Don't think they're going to be a juggernaut this season though. I think they're still a year and another offseason away from being a super team. LeBron or no, it's going to take some time for them to go from being awful to learning how to win. Irving and Love have never made it through a whole season or made the playoffs and Irving is coming off a Team USA appearance. Tough division. Rookie coach. Shaky bench. And zero foundation for defense means they'll probably be one of the worst defensive teams in the league. They'll finish top three and have a shot at winning the East, but they're no lock like a lot of people think.

3 - Washington. Best roster top to bottom in the East. Best PG in the conference. Best front court rotation among the Tier 1 teams. Best rotation of wings. Best road team. Good bet to get improvement from Wall, Beal, and Porter. And should be a lot more clutch after adding Pierce. Probably the best playoff team in the conference because of those things. But during the regular season, the ceiling is limited by the pedestrian home performance. 55-60 win one seed territory necessitates being dominant at home. John isn't good enough to carry a one seed alone, and Beal in his age 21 season isn't going to be good enough consistently enough to be a true superstar running mate. Those two are still a year away.

Again, I think Toronto steals this year's one seed.

Tier 2 - 45-51 win territory. The tier of the good defensive teams that can't score.

4 - Chicago. This is the team that played over their heads in a weak conference last season. Lost in the narrative of misfortune about Derrick Rose's injury last season was the fact they got best case scenario seasons from just about everyone else. They played a 7 man rotation for months without anyone getting hurt. They're not getting 80 games and DPOY and 6MOY seasons from Gibson and Noah again. They got exposed in the playoffs. The team lacks scoring, and I don't think the shell of Derrick Rose makes up this deficiency. I'll be shocked if Rose plays 30 MPG and 60 games this year. I'll be shocked if he finishes with a PER above 16 or so. I can see McDermott being a big pick up long term, and I think he's even a dark horse ROTY candidate. But the much more likely outcome given Thibs's history with rookies is that he barely plays at all. And I'm thinking they'll be lucky to get Tiago Splitter-like production from Mirotic. Mirotic isn't as good a prospect as Splitter was. They're going to play great defense and overachieve during the regular season, but no offense means they'll be lucky to get 50 wins.

5 - Charlotte. Good defense and good coaching. Solid PG. Solid depth. Good center, but there is no way they're getting another year like last year from Al Jefferson. He's got Plantar Fasciitis and it's all downhill for him from here. They're going to be a tough team to beat because of the quality of their defense and coaching. And there is reason to hope they improve down the line between the Cody Zeller and Noah Vonleh projects. But those two are years away. And MKG looks like a bust and this roster lacks any semblance of top end offensive talent without Al Jefferson carrying their offense. Their willingness to max out Gordon Hayward demonstrated that. I think they improve depsite regression from Al Jefferson, but top out at about 47 wins.

6 - Indy. In a similar situation to Chicago the past two years after they lost Derrick Rose. They're not going to fall apart. Their coaching is good and their defense is outstanding and they are an absolute bear to beat in Indy. They still have a lot of good players, including a DPOY caliber center (like Chicago). They're still going to know how to win. But the offense is going to be awful and it limits their upside. I'm think 45-46 wins would be an excellent season for them at this point.

Tier 3 - 40-45 win territory

7 - Atlanta. Also lacking top end talent. Horford is as shaky an injury situation as Nene at this point. Jeff Teague and Paul Millsap are good, but decidedly lesser than the best players for the top five teams in the conference. Then outside of that, the rotation is pretty thin. Good coaching means they'll get the most out of what they have, but they lack talent and are going to need a fully healthy season from Horford to be truly competitive, and that's not likely.

8 - Miami. They've still got good players but almost every one of them is on the final lap of their career. They've still got their system in place and their guys have championship pedigree and still know how to win. But they're probably going to collectively miss more time due to injury than any other team in the league and they're not overly talented any more. They're future looks like a year or two of ~.500 finishes before DWade retires and they go into rebuild mode.

9 - Brooklyn. Took a talent hit, their cap and coaching situation is a complete mess, and that Frankenteam they built last offseason was obviously not going to work. They are a really messy team, but they do still have a bunch of good players and should be able to get to .500. I think they're competing with Atlanta and Miami for the 7 or 8 seed. I think Brooklyn can survive all injury hell breaking lose for them, and I'm not sure Atlanta or Miami can. So they're a decent bet to make the postseason.

10 - Detroit. They've got something here if they can figure out how to make their pieces work. SVG and Drummond is a potentially awesome foundation. And I think Drummond and Josh Smith can coexist as a quality front court--eventually. But Monroe doesn't fit any more and they really need to get something out of him. Jennings isn't a great option for an SVG PG. And the other perimeter players are lacking too. I don't see it coming together for them quite yet.

Tier 4. Not tanking, just bad.

11 - Boston. They'll get better eventually, but the Rondo situation makes the roster messy and Dat is right, the front court lacks an interior defensive presence. This team would be such a good fit for Larry Sanders at C alongside Jared Sullinger at PF. Rondo for Sanders might make a lot of sense for both teams. Sanders at C and Smart at PG and Bradley at SG is the foundation of an awesome defense. I think they've got a nice overall foundation in place between Stevens, Smart, and Sullinger. But they're a year or two away from being really competitive again.

12 - New York. A mess of a roster. A mess of an organization that is going to take Phil a long time to clean up. And a hilariously delusional fan base if you check out the Knicks board. They probably just wasted the two best years of Carmelo's career.

13 - Orlando. Lacking a central identity for the team. They might really have something special with Oladipo and Gordon and I think the Elfrid Peyton pick was solid. Best case scenario, Aaron Gordon becomes a defensive stud and they eventually become a Memphis-like team of good players with good athletes that play good defense and each do a couple things on offense really well. But that's not going to happen next year.

Tier 5. Tanking, structural organizational issues, in danger of becoming fixed at the bottom of the conference.

14 - Milwaukee. I think they could have something on their hands but a change in ownership and leadership means they're going to blow it and sell off a bunch of good players for peanuts and spend years in the lottery trying to bring in new talent around Jabari Parker.

15 - Philly. The veteran talent dump has been so drastic that they're now running an NBA pre-school. They're in danger of seeing all of these promising prospects they're stockpiling cycling in and out of Philly.

A really good read. I would have Cleveland first but I agree that Toronto has a good chance to take the conference in the regular season given that they were essentially a a 50+ win team after the Rudy Gay trade.

A couple of thoughts
- Is DeRozan really the best shooting guard in the East? Wade did a post a higher PER than him last season. Plus with all the BS that Wade gets away with with the refs- it is still his position to lose IMO. You are right that this could be the end of Dwayne Wade as we know it although maybe he proves the doubters wrong, kind of what Ginobli did last season. BTW, where would DeRozan rank in the West- is he even better than Ginobli?
- Al Horford COULD still be the top end talent the Hawks are looking for. He's a pretty good offensive player and a great defensive player- staying on the court is an issue.
- I think Indiana is out of the playoffs- without Paul George and Lance Stephenson. I could be wrong though- maybe Stuckey provides the scoring punch they need. It would have helped some if they could have convinced Marion to come.
- Detroit has a lot of interesting pieces- even if Brandon Jennings isn't that good- they did acquire DJ Augustine- I'd be interested to see if he can keep it up without Thibs.
- I think Boston gets bumped down a bit with Rondo missing the first month of the season (bet this was posted before then though!).

[dckingsfan]

Even if the Cavs struggle early on, they're most certainly going to have it together by the playoffs.

Let's be real.. in the current Eastern conference, any team with three All-Stars (one being the #1 player in the game) is a lock for the Finals.

Yep, kind of the Ace of Spades trump argument.

[Dat2U]

The Cavs are a 65-win team IMO. Folks see weaknesses, I see two of the three best offensive forwards in the game on the same team that can provide the sort of spacing to be an offensive juggernaut. Frankly it's a bit unfair but life is going to incredibly easy for Irving & Waiters with all the attention that Love & James will command.

As long as James & Love are healthy, a conference finals appearance is a stone cold lock. Varejao's health and/or if they address depth up front will determine if they fall short or win it all. Maybe, maybe Chicago pushes them if and only if Rose returns close to top but the Cavs are heavy heavy favorites. I seriously question the analysis that says they are somehow overrated.

[Hidden Eye]

I'm not too big on a team to make a big leap that hasn't gotten out of the first round of the playoffs.

The thing is the leap isn't that far for a team like Cleveland to make it because the two Eastern Conference finalists have taken major steps backwards in Miami and Indiana. 3 of the 4 teams Eastern Conference teams that made it to the 2nd round have regressed if you include Brooklyn since they lost Pierce and Livington and their head coach in Jason Kidd. Garnett isn't getting any younger and it remains to be seen if the Nets can even get to the playoffs. And here's hoping that the Pierce move is a good signing or Porter/Rice develops, otherwise Washington is taking a step back as well.

And the teams that got eliminated from the 1st round are adding major pieces
Atlanta - Al Horford, Adreian Payne (BTW- they took the Pacers to 7 games while the Wizards only took them to 6. Hibbert showing up may have had something to do with that)
Chicago- Derrick Rose, Doug McDermott, Pau Gasol, Mirotic
Charlotte Hornets- Noah Vonleh, Lance Stephenson

Unproven players

That being said, I'm also curious to see how Cleveland looks, whether Irving, Love, and Varejao can make it through a whole season without being injured. How does Cleveland stop a team with good bigs like Nene/Gortat, Noah/Gasol?

I'm also not willing to write off Miami who got Deng and McRoberts. And just maybe Dwayne Wade has something left in the tank and maybe Bosh can play better especially with more touches.

I wouldn't even put Cleveland near Miami(s) team until they can go through a full season and win 58+ games everybody predicts in one year. Their flaws don't outweigh their strengths. Good offensive team and so is everybody else in the Eastern Conference.

[stevemcqueen1]

The Cavs are a 65-win team IMO. Folks see weaknesses, I see two of the three best offensive forwards in the game on the same team that can provide the sort of spacing to be an offensive juggernaut. Frankly it's a bit unfair but life is going to incredibly easy for Irving & Waiters with all the attention that Love & James will command.

As long as James & Love are healthy, a conference finals appearance is a stone cold lock. Varejao's health and/or if they address depth up front will determine if they fall short or win it all. Maybe, maybe Chicago pushes them if and only if Rose returns close to top but the Cavs are heavy heavy favorites. I seriously question the analysis that says they are somehow overrated.

65 wins is a 32 win jump from last year. That's doubling their win total. Is there any combination of two players in the league that could account for a 32 win bump? I don't think so. If everything goes perfectly for them and they get fully healthy seasons from Love, Irving, and Varejao, and LeBron reverts to MVP form and Love experiences little drop off in individual production moving to a #2 or #3 option, then maybe you get to 60+ wins. But how likely is all of that to happen?

I think Cleveland can realistically get to 55, which in and of itself, is an ENORMOUS bump from last season. That'll put them in range for the one seed, but it won't make them a lock to get it.

Cleveland does have a legit weakness in that they're going to be a bad defensive team. That's probably going to limit their win ceiling this year, and it definitely will in the playoffs.

[Dat2U]

The Cavs are a 65-win team IMO. Folks see weaknesses, I see two of the three best offensive forwards in the game on the same team that can provide the sort of spacing to be an offensive juggernaut. Frankly it's a bit unfair but life is going to incredibly easy for Irving & Waiters with all the attention that Love & James will command.

As long as James & Love are healthy, a conference finals appearance is a stone cold lock. Varejao's health and/or if they address depth up front will determine if they fall short or win it all. Maybe, maybe Chicago pushes them if and only if Rose returns close to top but the Cavs are heavy heavy favorites. I seriously question the analysis that says they are somehow overrated.

65 wins is a 32 win jump from last year. That's doubling their win total. Is there any combination of two players in the league that could account for a 32 win bump? I don't think so. If everything goes perfectly for them and they get fully healthy seasons from Love, Irving, and Varejao, and LeBron reverts to MVP form and Love experiences little drop off in individual production moving to a #2 or #3 option, then maybe you get to 60+ wins. But how likely is all of that to happen?

I think Cleveland can realistically get to 55, which in and of itself, is an ENORMOUS bump from last season. That'll put them in range for the one seed, but it won't make them a lock to get it.

Cleveland does have a legit weakness in that they're going to be a bad defensive team. That's probably going to limit their win ceiling this year, and it definitely will in the playoffs.

I'm no LeBron fan but man I swear I don't understand the total underestimation of his impact. What does it matter that they only won 33 games last year? This is totally different team with a new coach! You got the best player in the world AND you add the best offensive big in the game on top of that you think a 32 game jump is unrealistic? As if LeBron & Love's presence won't have any impact on the other players on the roster?

[Dat2U]

Did the Pierce/Garnett/Allen core for the Celtics need a year to get it together or were they very very good off the bat?

Did the James/Wade/Bosh trio need a year before making a playoff push or did they figure it out after a few weeks into the season and make it all the way to the Finals?

The idea that you need to have some sort of seasoning as a team with playoff wins under your bet before competing for a title is nonsense. Talent is talent. The creme always rises to the top. It would be a shock to me if the trio of LeBron, Love & Irving with Varejao didn't make it to the NBA Finals.

[LyricalRico]

Dwyane Wade said Saturday sitting out 28 games last season is an approach he believes has to be reevaluated.

"Last year," he said after the first session of training camp at AmericanAirlines Arena, "we tried something and I wasn't comfortable with it, either."

<snip>

"My goal," he said, "is to be available every day for my teammates and see what that equals out to. Hopefully it equals out to success for myself, individually, but for our team."

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miam ... ?track=rss

Wade going to play every game? Will probably help them early, but alternatively could mean they take a nosedive after the ASG as he wears down.

[stevemcqueen1]

A really good read. I would have Cleveland first but I agree that Toronto has a good chance to take the conference in the regular season given that they were essentially a a 50+ win team after the Rudy Gay trade.

A couple of thoughts
- Is DeRozan really the best shooting guard in the East? Wade did a post a higher PER than him last season. Plus with all the BS that Wade gets away with with the refs- it is still his position to lose IMO. You are right that this could be the end of Dwayne Wade as we know it although maybe he proves the doubters wrong, kind of what Ginobli did last season. BTW, where would DeRozan rank in the West- is he even better than Ginobli?
- Al Horford COULD still be the top end talent the Hawks are looking for. He's a pretty good offensive player and a great defensive player- staying on the court is an issue.
- I think Indiana is out of the playoffs- without Paul George and Lance Stephenson. I could be wrong though- maybe Stuckey provides the scoring punch they need. It would have helped some if they could have convinced Marion to come.
- Detroit has a lot of interesting pieces- even if Brandon Jennings isn't that good- they did acquire DJ Augustine- I'd be interested to see if he can keep it up without Thibs.
- I think Boston gets bumped down a bit with Rondo missing the first month of the season (bet this was posted before then though!).

- I think DeRozan is the best SG in the conference. He's more reliable than Wade, who still fell off hard towards the end of the year and postseason despite taking so many games off. DeRozan is a reliable #1 option and capable volume scorer. He is very good at creating for himself. He has a slick mid range game and so much size and athleticism that he's probably the best inside finisher among any guard in the NBA. He's a good FT shooter and he gets himself to the line at high rate, so it compensates for the inefficiency that comes from relying on a mid range game where he takes a lot of difficult shots off the bounce.

His weaknesses are such that he's probably only keeping the "best SG in the East" seat warm for Beal for a season or two. He has no trail game. He can only shoot threes from the corners, and from there, he's merely competent. He has no range from the FT line extended and up. He's not a very good defensive player and, while he's got much better last year, he's not really a natural facilitator for teammates when he starts with the ball. Those are the main areas he needs to work on to improve enough to become a true blue superstar IMO.

But you are better off with him than Wade at this point. You can't rely on Wade, but you can be sure that DeMar is going to be there every night and give you 20 points whether you're running stuff to set things up for him or not. Wade is in a tougher situation than Ginobli. His team isn't really good any more, and he's going to have to be the #1 scoring option whereas Ginobli was a role player. Either Miami is going to use Wade sparingly and lose a ton of games, or they're going to rely on him. This season is going to take a big toll on him.

- Horford is an excellent all around player, and a great player to have as the back bone of a team build. But he's not a top flight talent even at his best. He doesn't have the individual offensive creativity to be. Without that offensive playmaker, their margin for error is small because everything needs to be going right execution wise if you don't have someone that can bail you out regularly. That lack for the Hawks keeps them from being on the same footing as us, Cleveland, and Toronto IMO. Or even Chicago and Charlotte with a healthy Jefferson/Rose. Though I'm skeptical that either of those two will be healthy again, which is why I'm starting to think about them being in the same boat as Atlanta.

- Yeah, the more time passes, the more I see Indy having a hangover season without Paul George. I still don't think they'll fall apart and end up in the tank race, but it's going to be a complete slog for them. 40 wins feels like a ceiling for them. I don't think Paul George is the same kind of engine for them that Wall is for us, but if he is, then 33 wins might be more realistic. They probably will miss the playoffs. Honestly, a tank year might be the best thing for them, to hopefully get another big time talent to pair with George.

- I think Detroit is in the playoff mix. They've got a top end talent in Drummond. I think you might see him jump up to that 18 PPG range. His shooting touch still blows, including the touch on those soft finishes in the post. But they're going to feed him more and play him more and he's still going to clean up everything around the basket. They need to deal Monroe and get something decent back in return and they need to add more three point shooters. But they'll compete for a late seed, especially if you have Indy dropping out of the picture. They're still at least a year away from being legit good. I think 15/16 is the season where Drummond takes the major step forward.

- Yeah Boston gets bumped down with the Rondo injury. Honestly, it doesn't feel like he's got a future with the team. They'll get to see the future is with Marcus Smart IMO. Take Rondo out of the picture and there is just no appealing veteran talent and leadership on the team. Stevens will have them playing competitively, but they're not built to truly compete night in and night out. I think they're going to end up in the tank race with Philly and Milwaukee.