Predict the Wizards Record '14-'15 season

dckingsfan · Post #461 » by **dckingsfan** » Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:32 pm

With 40 games in the book, the Wizards are 27&13, with a .675 winning percentage and on pace to win 55 games. leswizards and TheBlackCzar are leading the way.

Chocolate City Jordanaire · Post #462 » by **Chocolate City Jordanaire** » Sun Jan 18, 2015 9:40 am

28-13 halfway through the season.

56 win pace.

fishercob · Post #463 » by **fishercob** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:22 am

Over their last 70 regular season games, the Wizards are 47-23. .671 winning percentage and a 55 win pace. Pretty decent sized sample.

Good team. Not great, but I believe there's pretty significant upside on and off this roster.

Post #464 » by **montestewart** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:45 am

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:28-13 halfway through the season.

56 win pace.

Defending NBA champion Bullets were 28-13 at the halfway mark in 1979, finished with 54 wins, and made it to the Finals again, so…

Nivek · Post #465 » by **Nivek** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:50 pm

montestewart wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:28-13 halfway through the season.

56 win pace.

Defending NBA champion Bullets were 28-13 at the halfway mark in 1979, finished with 54 wins, and made it to the Finals again, so…

The Bullets that year had an SRS (combination of scoring margin and strength of schedule) of +4.75, which was good for 2nd best in the league. This year's team is +1.08, good for 14th best so far.

Post #466 » by **montestewart** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:26 pm

Nivek wrote:
montestewart wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:28-13 halfway through the season.

56 win pace.

Defending NBA champion Bullets were 28-13 at the halfway mark in 1979, finished with 54 wins, and made it to the Finals again, so…

The Bullets that year had an SRS (combination of scoring margin and strength of schedule) of +4.75, which was good for 2nd best in the league. This year's team is +1.08, good for 14th best so far.

I want heroic anthems and instead you play Satan rock. Can't you cook the books or something?

Nivek · Post #467 » by **Nivek** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:50 pm

montestewart wrote:
Nivek wrote:
montestewart wrote:Defending NBA champion Bullets were 28-13 at the halfway mark in 1979, finished with 54 wins, and made it to the Finals again, so…

The Bullets that year had an SRS (combination of scoring margin and strength of schedule) of +4.75, which was good for 2nd best in the league. This year's team is +1.08, good for 14th best so far.

I want heroic anthems and instead you play Satan rock. Can't you cook the books or something?

I can, but cooked books taste like ****.

Nivek · Post #468 » by **Nivek** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:33 pm

montestewart wrote:
Nivek wrote:
montestewart wrote:Defending NBA champion Bullets were 28-13 at the halfway mark in 1979, finished with 54 wins, and made it to the Finals again, so…

The Bullets that year had an SRS (combination of scoring margin and strength of schedule) of +4.75, which was good for 2nd best in the league. This year's team is +1.08, good for 14th best so far.

I want heroic anthems and instead you play Satan rock. Can't you cook the books or something?

Heroic anthems? How's this?

Based on their current SRS, Wizards have a 91% chance of winning today, and (before today's games) project to finish th season 51-31. That'd be the 5th best record in franchise history.

The Consiglieri · Post #469 » by **The Consiglieri** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:29 pm

10-10 against teams that are .500 or better. Basically were pounding mercilessly, the scrubs, and were playing even up with the above average to good teams. Sounds like a top 5 team in either conference probably, a top 2-3 in the East, and probably 50-54 wins at the end of the season and at least a trip to the semifinals if we are healthy.

Don't think this is a great team, but it's definitely become a good one.

dckingsfan · Post #470 » by **dckingsfan** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:19 am

Hollinger still has us winning 49:
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

hands11 · Post #471 » by **hands11** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 4:10 pm

hands11 wrote:OCT/NOV 10-5 ( 10-5 month ) - CHECK
DEC 22-9 12-4 (12-4 month) - CHECK: - Edited after DAL lose 12/30/14
Jan 29-19 ( 7-10 month )
Feb 36-24 ( 7-5 month )
Mar 45-29 ( 9-5 month )
Apr 52-30 ( 7-1 month )

Dec 29 @ HOU WIN
Dec 30 @ DAL Lose

Ok, we are right on schedule so far for OCT-DEC with 3 tough games coming up. I think they can win that NO game and go 1-2 over the next three.. If they can do that, that's a gravy game over my 52 win projection. Store nuts while you can.

Jan 2 @ OKC
Jan 3 @ SAS
Jan 5 @ NO - key game to win

My Jan 29-19 record is ( 7-10 month ) I hope this is wrong. I can see 8-9 or 9-8 in range but to get there, they need to win.

Jan 5 @ NO
Jan 9 CHI ESPN
Jan 13 SAS -
Jan 21 OKC ESPN and
Jan 28 @ PHX ESPN on a back to back after winning LAL in LA
Jan 31 TOR

Thats not going to be easy. Jan is a brutal schedule. Objectively, I will be happy to get out of it 7-10. it going to take beating some really good teams just to pull that off.

Jan 2 @ OKC - lose
Jan 3 @ SAS - lose but winnable
Jan 5 @ NO - win..this is the key game - put them
Jan 7 NYK - win
Jan 9 CHI ESPN- win.. statement game we need to win
Jan 11 @ ATL - lose
Jan 13 SAS - win..another statement game at home. Going to be real tough. Hopefully we win 1/3/14 instead.
Jan 14 @ CHI - lose ( surprise win)
Jan 16 BRK - win
Jan 17 @ BRK - lose ( split but in reverse order with previous game- same next result )
Jan 19 PHI - win
Jan 21 OKC ESPN - win.. revenge game
Jan 24 @ POR - lose
Jan 25 @ DEN - lose back to back
Jan 27 @ LAL - win
Jan 28 @ PHX ESPN - lose but this is a winnable back but its a back to back end of west coast trip. Tough game. Young team.
Jan 31 TOR - lose

That 8-9 with NO and PHX being two key game to change that up to 9-8. If we lose NO, we could go 7-10

So far they are doing well through this stretch. (7-3)

7-10 was my baseline projection. with a win @NO making 8-9 possible and they did that.
That 2nd win at CHI was pure gravy and makes 9-7 more possible and even 10-6 if they can win in DEN or PHX

But this next game against OKC is huge in those projections. If they win that, 9-7 is the new baseline and they have a chance to go 10-6 or even 11-5 which would be great over that stretch. Way better then my preseason projection for them for this January stretch.

OKC, DEN, LAL and PHX are the remaining more important winnable games in my view. They should be able to win 2 of those which gets them to 9-7. Doing that or better keeps them on a 54-55 win pace.

Another tough stretch of games.

Nivek · Post #472 » by **Nivek** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 4:42 pm

dckingsfan wrote:Hollinger still has us winning 49:
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

My prognosticator suggests 52. Low end: 49. High end: 54.

dckingsfan · Post #473 » by **dckingsfan** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:17 pm

Nivek wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Hollinger still has us winning 49:
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

My prognosticator suggests 52. Low end: 49. High end: 54.

Win last night and he has bumped it to 51... we have been extremely fortunate not to have had any injuries thus far. I had Nene playing in 55 games - he is on track for 70. I had pierce for 70 and he is on track for 80. And none of the role players have gone down. I also had Wall missing 4-5 games, looks like back-to-back 82 game seasons.

Could be that we end up in the mid-50s.

dckingsfan · Post #474 » by **dckingsfan** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:23 pm

And this is quite positive:
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/powerrankings

hands11 · Post #475 » by **hands11** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:36 am

dckingsfan wrote:
Nivek wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Hollinger still has us winning 49:
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

My prognosticator suggests 52. Low end: 49. High end: 54.

Win last night and he has bumped it to 51... we have been extremely fortunate not to have had any injuries thus far. I had Nene playing in 55 games - he is on track for 70. I had pierce for 70 and he is on track for 80. And none of the role players have gone down. I also had Wall missing 4-5 games, looks like back-to-back 82 game seasons.

Could be that we end up in the mid-50s.

We had injuries. Its just most of it was to start the year.

Good thing about resting players until they are fully healthy is, they tend to stay health afterward. And winning and being deep helps as well. More rest. Loved to see them rest Paul that one game a few games back.

Seems being healthy and winning breads more of the same as does being injured and losing.

Chocolate City Jordanaire · Post #476 » by **Chocolate City Jordanaire** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 3:13 am

Nivek wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Hollinger still has us winning 49:
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

My prognosticator suggests 52. Low end: 49. High end: 54.

They could win 57 or more if they simply trade Seraphin, Webster, and this year's first round pick for Larry Sanders and a couple Milwaukee second round picks.

Acquire rim protector? Check.

Add best rebounder for poor rebounder? Check.

Add young player to frontcourt? Check.

Get Porter back out on the court? Check.

Give Blair minutes and ease Sanders in by late March? Check.

Wall effect on finisher Sanders? Underestimated and significant. Expect Larry Sanders' PER to be over 20.

Buy cheap while the guy is dealing with drugs and depression. Save his life and buoy the Wizards.

Convinced that the Wizards could win the East playoffs with this one move.

hands11 · Post #477 » by **hands11** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 1:57 pm

OCT/NOV 10-5 ( 10-5 month ) - CHECK
DEC 22-9 12-4 (12-4 month) - CHECK
Jan 29-19 ( 7-10 month ) - 9-8 +2 better then I projected before the season but in line with before the month projections
Feb 36-24 ( 7-5 month ) - Projecting an adjustment up to 8-4
Mar 45-29 ( 9-5 month )
Apr 52-30 ( 7-1 month )

One track for 54-55 wins

So the good news. We are +2 from my projected 52 wins and they avoided a losing month. Jan. was a brutal month for them and while they still can't beat TOR and noone on seems to be able to beat ATL, they are still projecting to be ahead of where many though they would be this season. The mean voting was 48.5

Looking over the Feb games I have then going 8-4 adjusted up one game I had them losing to DET but now DET lost Jennings.

They might even do one better then that, if by some miracle Randy figures out how to play teams like TOR and ATL, we might pull out the next TOR game which is the last game before the ASB. But it won't matter that much, we already lost the series. Or they might be able to beat the new CLE team. They might actually stand a better change of that then TOR.

Feb 2 CHA - W
Feb 4 @ ATL - L
Feb 5 @ CHA - W
Feb 7 BRK - W
Feb 9 ORL - W
Feb 11 @ TOR - L but one can hope.
Feb 20 CLE ESPN - L We will see. If we win, we are up 2-1 in a 4 game series.
Feb 22 @ DET - W
Feb 24 GSW - L
Feb 25 @ MIN - W
Feb 27 @ PHI - W
Feb 28 DET - W

So they are still on schedule for a 54-55 win season, but losing to ATL, TOR and CLE won't have people feeling as good as they otherwise would. They really have to win at least one of those games and I suspect they will. Would be nice if we can split or win the CLE series. At least then we could match up well against CHI and CLE and we will need to avoid ATL and TOR. Much better odds of getting the right match ups through the playoffs.

Jan was our tough month. Now that is behind us and we can start ramping up for the push to the finish line. TOR is about to hit their tough mouth so lets see how that goes. CHI has an average mouth. They should go pretty well. CLE will keep rolling. They have an pretty easy month. I suspect the end of the month will have ATL, WAS, CLE and CHI as the top 4 teams

Looks like the projected winners are coming from this group...

55 - leswizards, TheBlackCzar
54 - Wizardspride, stevemcqueen1, tsvqt, Bigwig
53 - dangermouse, Hidden Eye, Zonkerbl

dckingsfan · Post #478 » by **dckingsfan** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 2:08 pm

Hollinger's machine now has us at 49

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

Post #479 » by **nate33** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 2:13 pm

From the "next 20 games" thread:

nate33 wrote:Here is the actual schedule starting the 29th. This looks like a lot of losses:

vs Boston Celtics - Sat Dec 27 2014 - 7:00p
@ Houston Rockets - Mon Dec 29 2014 - 8:00p
@ Dallas Mavericks - Tue Dec 30 2014 - 8:30p
@ Oklahoma City Thunder - Fri Jan 2 2015 - 8:00p
@ San Antonio Spurs - Sat Jan 3 2015 - 8:30p
@ New Orleans Pelicans - Mon Jan 5 2015 - 8:00p NBA TV
vs New York Knicks - Wed Jan 7 2015 - 7:00p
vs Chicago Bulls - Fri Jan 9 2015 - 8:00p ESPN
@ Atlanta Hawks - Sun Jan 11 2015 - 3:00p
vs San Antonio Spurs - Tue Jan 13 2015 - 7:00p
@ Chicago Bulls - Wed Jan 14 2015 - 8:00p
vs Brooklyn Nets - Fri Jan 16 2015 - 7:00p
@ Brooklyn Nets - Sat Jan 17 2015 - 8:00p
vs Philadelphia 76ers - Mon Jan 19 2015 - 2:00p
vs Oklahoma City Thunder - Wed Jan 21 2015 - 8:00p ESPN
@ Portland Trail Blazers - Sat Jan 24 2015 - 10:00p
@ Denver Nuggets - Sun Jan 25 2015 - 8:00p NBA TV
@ Los Angeles Lakers - Tue Jan 27 2015 - 10:30p
@ Phoenix Suns - Wed Jan 28 2015 - 10:30p ESPN
vs Toronto Raptors - Sat Jan 31 2015 - 7:00p

There are 8 home games and 12 away games. We should take Boston, New York, Brooklyn and Philly at home. We can probably win 2 out of the 4 home games against Chicago, San Antonio, OKC and Toronto. So that's 6 wins out of our 8 home games. Those road games look brutal. We can win at Brooklyn, at LA and at Denver, but will probably lose at least one of those 3 (Denver is a B2B). We are the clear underdog on the other 8 road games. We can probably steal 1 or 2. So, optimistically, I'd say we can win 10 out of 20 but my guess is we win 9.

Nice! We ended up going 11-9 over that 20-game stretch. Can't be too unhappy about that result.

February looks much kinder. There is one guaranteed loss (@Atlanta) and two other games where we are clear underdogs (@TOR and vs.GSW). Two more games are toss-ups (@DET and vs.CLE). We should be favored in the other 6.

Hopefully, EG can make a trade deadline deal to help bolster our bench. We really need a dynamic PG or a shot-creator on the wing.

hands11 · Post #480 » by **hands11** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 2:52 pm

dckingsfan wrote:Hollinger's machine now has us at 49

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds" target="_blank

That stupid thing is pretty much worthless for projections. Look what it says for CLE. 8.3% chance of winning the conference ?

Its like most tools. It probably decent at projecting established teams. Its not going to find teams on the rise and its not going to project well though tough mouths or knowing how teams are developing or not.

Would be nice to see what it had for ATL a month ago or even CLE or MIL.

I wouldn't mind that tool much except as a lagging indicator.

By the time we get through Feb, it will have up projected at 53 wins or higher.