Predict the Wizards Record '14-'15 season

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Posted July 27, 2014:

I think chemistry will take a hit. Washington has not improved its perimeter defense. They added two power forwards too many. The Wizards are slower. They did not add a rim protector. They needed to add some speed in the backcourt for times Wall is ineffective.

I think the Wizards will win 42 games. I think they will miss Ariza more than they think.

Hopefully, I'm wrong and they win 52 games. A successful season in my opinion is anything more than 47 wins, or advancing beyond round 2.

Looks like this prediction will end up pretty doggone close.

[dckingsfan]

Yep, I think it will be pretty close now... and yes, they sorely miss wings that can really get out and run with Wall and most of all a lock down defensive wing.

[tontoz]

Posted July 27, 2014:

I think chemistry will take a hit. Washington has not improved its perimeter defense. They added two power forwards too many. The Wizards are slower. They did not add a rim protector. They needed to add some speed in the backcourt for times Wall is ineffective.

I think the Wizards will win 42 games. I think they will miss Ariza more than they think.

Hopefully, I'm wrong and they win 52 games. A successful season in my opinion is anything more than 47 wins, or advancing beyond round 2.

Looks like this prediction will end up pretty doggone close.

Right there with you. Earlier in the season they won several tight games against weak teams that made people think they were better than they really are. It was just a mirage.

[hands11]

With them squarely in the path to do no better then last year and maybe even worse and with the aimless way they are playing, Ted has to be thinking about firing Randy during the season. Right ?

No way this record should be happening. Even 46-47 wins would be a huge fail in my book.

[dckingsfan]

hands, you are correct - he has to be thinking of getting rid of Checkers and Witless...

[TheSecretWeapon]

It would take a significant turnaround for them to get 46 or 47 wins. I think they have a shot at reaching 45. Analyzing what's left on the schedule, I think 41 or 42 is possible on the low end.

Coming up next week, they have seven straight against Western Conference teams -- Memphis, Sacramento and Portland at home, then on the road against Utah, the Clippers, Sacramento and Golden State. They could easily lose 5 or 6 of those, even if they actually start playing better. If they keep playing the way they've been...they could drop all seven.

[queridiculo]

My 43 win prediction doesn't look so bad now.

I'm not sure what's worse, a terrible start with a solid finish like last year, or a great start and the slow regression to the mean like this year.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I also predict Randy Wittman lasts one day after the first round loss...

Ernie's gotta go, too. I think he's finally going to get the pink slip.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

It would take a significant turnaround for them to get 46 or 47 wins. I think they have a shot at reaching 45. Analyzing what's left on the schedule, I think 41 or 42 is possible on the low end.

Coming up next week, they have seven straight against Western Conference teams -- Memphis, Sacramento and Portland at home, then on the road against Utah, the Clippers, Sacramento and Golden State. They could easily lose 5 or 6 of those, even if they actually start playing better. If they keep playing the way they've been...they could drop all seven.

Looking ahead to the game against the Kings. That one's going to be interesting.

Andre Miller played 20 minutes in the Kings' near 40-point win last night. The Professor didn't score but he still posted a good stat line.

(Kevin, I'll be taking ground transportation and the MARC/subway to the Arlington area this afternoon. My cousin's flying in from St. Louis, MO, to Reagan Airport. Want to see him but plans are still flexible. Text or call when you're free. I'm concerned a bit about the snow tomorrow)

[dckingsfan]

My 43 win prediction doesn't look so bad now.

I'm not sure what's worse, a terrible start with a solid finish like last year, or a great start and the slow regression to the mean like this year.

Definitely the latter - because then there is that hint of thinking that the roster is better than it actually is...

[closg00]

The low - 40's group is looking good.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[closg00]

FINAL

Note: If you share a win record, tie is determined by ECS

Wins

58 - payitforward
57 - deneem4
56 - jeffsays
55 - leswizards, TheBlackCzar
54 - Wizardspride, stevemcqueen1, tsvqt, Bigwig
53 - dangermouse, Hidden Eye, Zonkerbl
52 - CntOutSmrtCrazy, AFM, MOrgil, barelyawake, JWizmentality, MarcoPolo, DANNYLANDOVER
51 - FreeBalling, sfam, diaboliQ_Mo, Higga, bgroban, Bleacher Report, keynote, evolushunize, JudBuchler,Darko Miliminutes
50 - nuposse04, 2Mas, TheKingOfVa360, CobraCommander, DCZards, WallToWall, jivelikenice, Higga, Wall34, WallWithTheDime, hands11, gtownheat34
49 - thricethefun, gesa2, BarnabyJones, Jimmy Recard, blazinskillz, SuperBook, Severn Hoos, TheBabyMaker, JAR69, Donkey McDonkerton, The Consiglieri
48 - miller31time, KevinFCheng, jmrosenth, McFilthy, Illmatic12, Kanyewest, dandridge 10, GhostsOfGil, pineappleheadindc, cammac, Kanyewest, wizfan1984
47 - The Fax, Jay81, Nigel Tufnel, The Fax, ESPN, Chaos Revenant, ProBasketballTalk, Dark Faze, fishercob, Dat2U, jangles86, WizTom, dobrojim
46 - penbeast0, montestewart, DaRealHibachi, mohammed10, Induveca, noworriesinmd, wermolwermol777, willbcocks, dobrojim, Hypnotizer, DCKingsFan, LyricalRico, nate33
45 - Ruzious, Nivek, Earth2Ted, Rafael122, Benjammin
44 - MJG, verbal8, closg00, long suffrin' boulez fan, bulletproof_32
43 - Dat2U, queridiculo, TGW, J-Ves
42 - FAH1223, Chocolate City Jordanaire, tontoz
40 - BigA

ECS

1st - deneem
2nd - leswizards, stevemcqueen1, bgroban, MarcoPolo, tsvqt, evolushunize, Bigwig
3rd - miller31time, CntOutSmrtCrazy, 2Mas, FreeBalling, hands11, McFilthy, sfam, BarnabyJones, Illmatic12, JWizmentality, Bleacher Report, Severn Hoos, cammac, DANNYLANDOVER, keynote, Dark Faze, SuperBook, Higga, JudBuchler, gtownheat34, wizfan1984
4th - gesa2, DCZards, montestewart, The Fax, mohammed10, dandridge 10, nuposse04, nate33, ESPN, GhostsOfGil, Zonkerbl, pineappleheadindc, wermolwermol777, willbcocks, jangles86, penbeast0, dobrojim, TheBabyMaker, JAR69, LyricalRico, Kanyewest, dobrojim
5th - DCKingsFan, verbal8, Earth2Ted, noworriesinmd, Dat2U, queridiculo, closg00, J-Ves, WizTom, Benjammin, bulletproof_32, Nivek
6th - long suffrin' boulez fan, Rafael122
7th - Chocolate City Jordanaire, tontoz, FAH1223
8th - BigA
dckingsfanAnalystPosts: 3,690And1: 247Joined: May 28, 2010

*This post has the conference prediction as-well*

[dckingsfan]

Yep, 5th or 6th seed are looking like the winners right now...

[dckingsfan]

I think 44, 45 or 46 wins will be the magic number right now...

[DaRealHibachi]

Dat on 47 & 43.. What gives..??

[hands11]

OCT/NOV 10-5 ( 10-5 month ) - CHECK
DEC 22-9 12-4 (12-4 month) - CHECK
Jan 29-19 ( 7-10 month ) - 9-8 +2 better then I projected before the season but in line with before the month projections
Feb 36-24 ( 7-5 month ) - ( they crashed and burned instead 3-9) two CHA loses and back to back MIN and PHI
Mar 45-29 ( 9-5 month )
Apr 52-30 ( 7-1 month )

One track for 54-55 wins

So the good news. We are +2 from my projected 52 wins and they avoided a losing month. Jan. was a brutal month for them and while they still can't beat TOR and noone on seems to be able to beat ATL, they are still projecting to be ahead of where many though they would be this season. The mean voting was 48.5

Looking over the Feb games I have then going 8-4 adjusted up one game I had them losing to DET but now DET lost Jennings.

They might even do one better then that, if by some miracle Randy figures out how to play teams like TOR and ATL, we might pull out the next TOR game which is the last game before the ASB. But it won't matter that much, we already lost the series. Or they might be able to beat the new CLE team. They might actually stand a better change of that then TOR.

Feb 2 CHA - W
Feb 4 @ ATL - L
Feb 5 @ CHA - W
Feb 7 BRK - W
Feb 9 ORL - W
Feb 11 @ TOR - L but one can hope.
Feb 20 CLE ESPN - L We will see. If we win, we are up 2-1 in a 4 game series.
Feb 22 @ DET - W
Feb 24 GSW - L
Feb 25 @ MIN - W
Feb 27 @ PHI - W
Feb 28 DET - W

So they are still on schedule for a 54-55 win season, but losing to ATL, TOR and CLE won't have people feeling as good as they otherwise would. They really have to win at least one of those games and I suspect they will. Would be nice if we can split or win the CLE series. At least then we could match up well against CHI and CLE and we will need to avoid ATL and TOR. Much better odds of getting the right match ups through the playoffs.

Jan was our tough month. Now that is behind us and we can start ramping up for the push to the finish line. TOR is about to hit their tough mouth so lets see how that goes. CHI has an average mouth. They should go pretty well. CLE will keep rolling. They have an pretty easy month. I suspect the end of the month will have ATL, WAS, CLE and CHI as the top 4 teams

Looks like the projected winners are coming from this group...

55 - leswizards, TheBlackCzar
54 - Wizardspride, stevemcqueen1, tsvqt, Bigwig
53 - dangermouse, Hidden Eye, Zonkerbl

Everything was looking solid. Then #Randy caught up with them. I expected the loses before the ASB. But the ones after ? There is no excuse for that. Just terrible coaching.

Loses to CHA twice, MIN and PHI back to back

Thats the difference between a 7-5 and their reality... 3-9
Thats the difference between staying on course to 50 win and feeling good and projecting to mid 40 and feeling bad.

Plus they lost twice to TOR by a total of 6 pts. One in OT at home.

Success and failure can be a thin line in this league. Man, if they would only have tried harder they would be 2nd/3rd in the conference right now.

I just wish coaches were allowed to do more things like adjust strategy instead of only being allowed to do post game interviews throwing their players under the bus telling them to play harder.

Huge game coming up against CHA. If they can't get their acts together enough to beat them, sub 45 starts to look possible.

[BigA]

Huge game coming up against CHA. If they can't get their acts together enough to beat them, sub 45 starts to look possible.

Sub 45 starts to look possible? The Wizards need to go 10-9 the rest of the way to get to 45 wins. Look at the schedule and who they've lost to recently. It would represent a major turnaround for them to play above 500 the rest of the way.

A quick look at the schedule and I would predict 5-14. Taking Nate33's point about teams starting to tank into consideration, I might add a couple more wins, but teams like the Sixers and the Knicks don't really need to lose every night. They'll get lots of ping pong balls.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Huge game coming up against CHA. If they can't get their acts together enough to beat them, sub 45 starts to look possible.

Sub 45 starts to look possible? The Wizards need to go 10-9 the rest of the way to get to 45 wins. Look at the schedule and who they've lost to recently. It would represent a major turnaround for them to play above 500 the rest of the way.

A quick look at the schedule and I would predict 5-14. Taking Nate33's point about teams starting to tank into consideration, I might add a couple more wins, but teams like the Sixers and the Knicks don't really need to lose every night. They'll get lots of ping pong balls.

Fewer than 45 wins is definitely possible. A perfectly average team would project to go 10-9 the rest of the way, which would have them finish at 45. But, the Wizards now actually rate slightly below average in schedule-adjusted scoring differential. Finishing 42-40 is pretty realistic given the schedule.

My "who's gonna win?" machine, estimates the Wizards as "coin flip" underdogs in 4 of their remaining games. They're "coin flip" favorites in one. "Coin flip" meaning the estimated chance of winning is within 5% -- in other words between 45% and 55%. If the Wizards can go 2-2 in those coin flip underdog games, and just win the games they "should" win, they'll have 9 wins and finish with 44 for the season.

[tontoz]

Such a great time to be a Wizards fan....at least that is what some people were saying back in December.

Now i can't even be bothered to watch the games. I have watched parts of games but the GS game was the only one i watched in full since the AS break.

[BigA]

Fewer than 45 wins is definitely possible. A perfectly average team would project to go 10-9 the rest of the way, which would have them finish at 45. But, the Wizards now actually rate slightly below average in schedule-adjusted scoring differential. Finishing 42-40 is pretty realistic given the schedule.

My "who's gonna win?" machine, estimates the Wizards as "coin flip" underdogs in 4 of their remaining games. They're "coin flip" favorites in one. "Coin flip" meaning the estimated chance of winning is within 5% -- in other words between 45% and 55%. If the Wizards can go 2-2 in those coin flip underdog games, and just win the games they "should" win, they'll have 9 wins and finish with 44 for the season.

Does your "who's going to win" machine weight the whole season equally, or assign higher weight to more recent performances? If it's based on season average point differentials, then you are building in the expectation that there will be some reversion toward the mean, and 9-10 is reasonable. That's what will happen if there's a significant turnaround from how they've been playing lately.

This collapse has been so complete that I'm not sure there will be any reversion. What if the Wizards just continue to play as well as they have been since the week before the All Star game? Which games should be wins and which should be losses? That's where I'm coming up with 7-12 as maybe a best case and 5-14 as what I would put money on today.