Predict the Wizards Record '14-'15 season

[barelyawake]

Every single one of the players I listed had slow foot speed listed as their major weakness in their drafting reports (in some fashion -- ie unable to create his own shot or slow to rotate defensively).

Ariza prospered here elevating our defense because of his footspeed and hustle.

Neither of the above statements are controversial. And the ways to grow beyond limitations of food speed are as I posted. Unsure how one can debate those either.

[Ruzious]

Had no idea where to drop this, so decided to drop here.

Our problem is one of foot speed. GRJ, Porter, Gortat, Beal and Webster all have skills, but have the same Achilles heel (foot speed). For any of them to maximize their potential, they need to work on their foot speed and work on work-arounds for lack of foot speed (fakes, posting, misdirection, and above average hustle). These are the things Ariza brought us.

Put it this way; we're replacing one of the fastest and most athletic 3's in the game with arguably the slowest - that's why Pierce was much more effective at the 4 last season. We added Blair and Humphries - 2 thumpers not built for speed. We have the slowest PG in the NBA as our backup PG. Wall was able to pitch back for Ariza on fast breaks - who would run to the 3 point line. Now, it's a legit question - does Wall have to go back to being a 1 man fast break? Beal and Porter will have to step up, or the Wiz will be among the slowest teams in the NBA despite having Wall.

[pineappleheadindc]

48 wins. 4th.

[nate33]

Had no idea where to drop this, so decided to drop here.

Our problem is one of foot speed. GRJ, Porter, Gortat, Beal and Webster all have skills, but have the same Achilles heel (foot speed). For any of them to maximize their potential, they need to work on their foot speed and work on work-arounds for lack of foot speed (fakes, posting, misdirection, and above average hustle). These are the things Ariza brought us.

I definitely agree that swapping Ariza for Pierce hurts us on this front. But other than that, I wouldn't call us slow. Webster, Rice and Beal are plenty athletic. Wall is a freak. Gortat, Porter and Nene are fine. Our backup bigs are a bit slow but not egregiously so. It's not like they're going to get run to death.

I do wish we acquired a 3rd string PG with major speed though. I really think that's going to bite us in the long run. I'd sure like to have DJ Augustin signed for the same contract Detroit gave him (2 years, $6M)

[DANNYLANDOVER]

52 wins and 3rd in the East. I think the EC will be very competitive next season.

[dckingsfan]

Note: If you share a win record, tie is determined by ECS

Wins

57 - deneem4
56 - jeffsays
55 - leswizards, TheBabyMaker, TheBlackCzar
54 - Wizardspride, stevemcqueen1
53 - dangermouse, Hidden Eye, Zonkerbl
52 - CntOutSmrtCrazy, AFM, hands11, MOrgil, barelyawake, JWizmentality, MarcoPolo, DANNYLANDOVER
51 - FreeBalling, sfam, diaboliQ_Mo, Higga, bgroban, Bleacher Report
50 - nuposse04, 2Mas, TheKingOfVa360, CobraCommander, DCZards, WallToWall, jivelikenice, Higga, Wall34
49 - thricethefun, gesa2, BarnabyJones, Jimmy Recard, blazinskillz
48 - miller31time, KevinFCheng, jmrosenth, keynote, long suffrin' boulez fan, McFilthy, Illmatic12, Kanyewest, dandridge 10, nate33, GhostsOfGil, pineappleheadindc
47 - DCKingsFan, The Fax, Jay81, Nigel Tufnel, Severn Hoos, The Fax, ESPN
46 - penbeast0, montestewart, DaRealHibachi, mohammed10, Induveca, noworriesinmd
45 - Ruzious, Nivek, J-Ves, Earth2Ted
44 - MJG, verbal8
43 - Dat2U, queridiculo, TGW
42 - FAH1223, Chocolate City Jordanaire
40 - BigA

ECS

1st -
2nd - leswizards, deneem4, stevemcqueen1, bgroban, MarcoPolo
3rd - miller31time, CntOutSmrtCrazy, 2Mas, FreeBalling, hands11, McFilthy, sfam, BarnabyJones, Illmatic12, JWizmentality, Bleacher Report, Severn Hoos, cammac, DANNYLANDOVER
4th - gesa2, DCZards, J-Ves, montestewart, The Fax, mohammed10, dandridge 10, nuposse04, nate33, ESPN, GhostsOfGil, Zonkerbl, pineappleheadindc
5th - DCKingsFan, verbal8, long suffrin' boulez fan, Earth2Ted, noworriesinmd
6th - Nivek
7th
8th - BigA

[barelyawake]

Had no idea where to drop this, so decided to drop here.

Our problem is one of foot speed. GRJ, Porter, Gortat, Beal and Webster all have skills, but have the same Achilles heel (foot speed). For any of them to maximize their potential, they need to work on their foot speed and work on work-arounds for lack of foot speed (fakes, posting, misdirection, and above average hustle). These are the things Ariza brought us.

I definitely agree that swapping Ariza for Pierce hurts us on this front. But other than that, I wouldn't call us slow. Webster, Rice and Beal are plenty athletic. Wall is a freak. Gortat, Porter and Nene are fine. Our backup bigs are a bit slow but not egregiously so. It's not like they're going to get run to death.

I do wish we acquired a 3rd string PG with major speed though. I really think that's going to bite us in the long run. I'd sure like to have DJ Augustin signed for the same contract Detroit gave him (2 years, $6M)

Webster, Rice and Beal all have below average footspeed, especially first step. Why do you think each have had trouble creating one on one penetration for their entire careers? As I said, I'm echoing every draft and scouting report on these players.

And it's not about getting run to death, it's about defense and penetration in a half-court offense. Ariza was the guy who could create when nothing was flowing by roaming, poking loose steals, and generating fast breaks. He was also the player who could cheat and help others on defense. Do you think Porter has the foot speed to do that?

I agree with Ruz about us possibly being one of the slowest teams in the league, which isn't good for Gortat at all (and actually isn't good for any team without a star big who can draw, and handle, a double team). And certainly doesn't help a group who have trouble with one on one penetration.

Our trey shooting is going have to be even better (from Rice, Porter, Webster and Beal) to open things up. Otherwise, things could get rather muddy in the half court.

Pierce for Ariza doesn't just change one position. It alters the skillset of the entire starting unit.

[dandridge 10]

Maybe its just me, but I didn't think Ariza had much footspeed. Heck, that is one of the reasons why he was a better spot up shooter than a slasher. He could rarely get by his defender. Ariza was good defensively more because of his length and his ability to play angles than his footspeed.

[Zonkerbl]

Maybe its just me, but I didn't think Ariza had much footspeed. Heck, that is one of the reasons why he was a better spot up shooter than a slasher. He could rarely get by his defender. Ariza was good defensively more because of his length and his ability to play angles than his footspeed.

I agree, there are lots of truly gifted athletes in the NBA who are terrible defenders. Like John Wall - I'm not saying he's a terrible defender but he has the tools to be Gary Payton and he's clearly not. Yet.

A certain degree of athleticism is required and Ariza has it, plus amazing length. But I think what Ariza has, what the good NBA defenders have, is brain speed. As long as you recognize the need to get to a certain spot early enough you can make up for your lack of foot speed.

[jivelikenice]

I'm on the record as stating 50 wins. Still sticking with it unless we somehow land Ray Allen and I add to that total. Anyways I wrote up a couple pieces on what it would take for the Wiz to legitimately enter the Finals discussion. Maybe a little ambitous but the national media seems to think highly of this squad so I tried to delve into what it would require. Here are parts 1 & 2. Two more to come....

http://wizofawes.com/2014/08/29/washing ... n-offense/

http://wizofawes.com/2014/09/05/washing ... ome-court/

[keynote]

I'm already on record as predicting 48 wins; I'll also predict that we'll earn the 3rd seed.

[dckingsfan]

Maybe its just me, but I didn't think Ariza had much footspeed. Heck, that is one of the reasons why he was a better spot up shooter than a slasher. He could rarely get by his defender. Ariza was good defensively more because of his length and his ability to play angles than his footspeed.

I think it was both. He routinely beat his man down the court and to the corner. He could recover when he was beat off the dribble.

He also played the passing lanes well - and his height and wingspan made it hard on opposing players. He was also quick enough to stay in front of many PGs.

He would have been a terrific defensive back.

[Dat2U]

IQ & length are Porter's strengths. As he gets stronger I think he'll be a plus defender and likely better than Ariza simply because he'll be more disciplined than Ariza was and won't gamble for steals as much as Ariza did.

[DCZards]

Maybe its just me, but I didn't think Ariza had much footspeed. Heck, that is one of the reasons why he was a better spot up shooter than a slasher. He could rarely get by his defender. Ariza was good defensively more because of his length and his ability to play angles than his footspeed.

I agree with this. As I was reading these posts praising Ariza's speed and athleticism, I was wondering if they were talking about the same guy I've been watching play for the Zards the last two seasons. Trevor is a good athlete with decent end-to-end footspeed but he's nothing special in that regard. I think people are quick to give skills and attributes that didn't really exist to players (and girlfriends) that they'll miss having around.

I'm as a big a fan of Ariza as pretty much anyone on this board. (In fact, when most here wanted to see Webster start off last season as the starter, I was one of the few posters arguing that Ariza should start, primarily because of his stellar D.) But I think the stuff about how badly Ariza will be missed is being overblown. I think the Zards will do very well with the combo of Pierce and Porter--and occasionally Rice.

[dckingsfan]

IQ & length are Porter's strengths. As he gets stronger I think he'll be a plus defender and likely better than Ariza simply because he'll be more disciplined than Ariza was and won't gamble for steals as much as Ariza did.

That would be great... do you think it takes him 2 or 3 seasons to get to that level? He would then be a very good complementary piece to Wall/Beal.

[Silvie Lysandra]

47 wins if everyone just plays like last year.
54 wins if Wall, Beal and Porter make major leaps.
43 wins if Pierce and Nene decline.

[montestewart]

47 wins if everyone just plays like last year.
54 wins if Wall, Beal and Porter make major leaps.
43 wins if Pierce and Nene decline.

You'll need 4-5 more contingent predictions before you've arrived at a true handswer, then you too can write, "It's just like I predicted . . ."

[blazinskillz]

Ariza was that impressive as an athlete. Above average yes but not freak by any means. I've been following Ariza since I saw him play and get embarrassed by LeBron in HS. I was an advoc for the trade when 95% was against it and I was for him starting over Webster. He was never explosive. He's a smart athlete like if you combine Shane Battier with Danny Green. That's more in Ariza's realm. I have the Wizards winning 49 games and being better than their record. 3 seed to losing in a promising close 2nd round

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[Silvie Lysandra]

47 wins if everyone just plays like last year.
54 wins if Wall, Beal and Porter make major leaps.
43 wins if Pierce and Nene decline.

You'll need 4-5 more contingent predictions before you've arrived at a true handswer, then you too can write, "It's just like I predicted . . ."

I think if I had to pick a number, I'd say 47. But the number could literally be anything from 38 to 60.

60 could be achievable through the following combo of factors:

Wall making a huge statistical and efficiency leap into superstardom, let's say:

21.5 ppg/11.5 APG/5.5 RPG/2.5 SPG/1.0 BPG per 36 with .56%+ TS and a PER of 25+

Beal making the leap into at least All-Star level

22-25 ppg, 4.5 RPG 4.5 APG with 38% from 3fg and 55%+ TS% and a PER of 22+

Porter becoming a quality starter/glue guy in the Tayshaun Prince mold, 9/5/3.5 in about 25 minutes while providing plus defense and making heady plays.

Nene giving strong production in limited minutes

Gortat staying solid

Pierce giving all star level production per minute

Wittman progressing as a coach



Pierce providing

[Dark Faze]

47