Why Kevin Seraphin Could Have A Breakout Season

[nate33]

Seraphin with 6 boards in 15 minutes in LA. He shot poorly (2-6) but made 3 of 4 free throws. Also, he got stuck shooting one bail-out shot at the end of the 24 clock (an off-balance long 2) and he took a full court heave at the end of the 3rd. He was really more like 2-4 from the field.

Seraphin continues his upgraded play. Over the first 30 games, he was the same old terrible Seraphin we've seen for 4 years. Over the last 14 games, he's been a viable rotation player. I'm not saying he's a quality starter or anything, but he's not bad. Over the past 14 games, he's averaged the following on a per-36 basis:

Pts: 18.1
Reb: 8.6
Ast: 1.9
Blk: 2.0
TO: 2.9
PF: 5.2
TS% .612
ORtg 107
USG% 22.8

There's not enough rebounding, and he's a bit too foul-prone and turnover-prone. But none of those numbers are glaringly bad and they're offset by his solid scoring efficiency on a fairly heavy usage rate for a post player. If this is a new permanent plateau for Seraphin, then I've got no problems with him continuing to get the minutes as our 4th big.

[dckingsfan]

That's a fair assessment of KS's season and you'll get no argument from me regarding Seraphin's shortcomings--fouling, turnovers, lack of rebounding. But he continues to improve in at least one important aspect of the game--shooting. And, while he will be probably never be even an average rebounder, I think it's safe to hold out hope that KS will cut down on the fouls and turnovers as he gets more experience.

P.S.: Kevin has gotten a number of questionable fouls called against him, calls that probably wouldn't be made against more high-profile, established players.

Funny, watching the game I saw both... fouls that shouldn't have been called against him and fouls that should have but weren't. If he does have a rep with the refs, that isn't a good thing. There was the one block against Hickson, I was scratching my head. Then there was a rake against Arthur (I think), I was please he got away with that one.

Either way, he fouls at an alarming rate...

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_ ... n-seraphin

Numbers seem to be headed in the right direction.

Shooting Percentage
FT shooting percentage
Rebounds
AST
Blocks


As for the fouls. When you are playing in the post and playing only 16 mins a game. You can afford to foul at a higher rate. You aren't playing 30 minutes. He is out there to be aggressive right now. If that comes with an extra foul, then that ok for now.

Per 36... 5.8 fouls is kind of high. If he can eventually get that down closer to 4.5-4.7 at least he would be in Blairs range.

But with everything else he is improving at, the fouls being high isn't a huge deal just yet. Plus. Keep in mind. He get called on fouls when he is setting picks. And some of that is straight BS I have no idea what he get called for it when I see what other players do.

He is a big boy. I think the refs sometimes hold that against him. If he was a star, he would get called for a chunk of those plays.

Once things I don't see happening as much this year is Wall leaving his big out to hang but starting his drive before they are set. Sure it still happens some but not like in years past.

The Kev did have some nice monster rebounds tonight though and to me, thats what more important. He is being more aggressive rebounding. And his hands even seem to be improving some.

LAL -6
DEN -9
POR -10
OKC -2
PHI +19!!!!

[hands11]

Funny, watching the game I saw both... fouls that shouldn't have been called against him and fouls that should have but weren't. If he does have a rep with the refs, that isn't a good thing. There was the one block against Hickson, I was scratching my head. Then there was a rake against Arthur (I think), I was please he got away with that one.

Either way, he fouls at an alarming rate...

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_ ... n-seraphin

Numbers seem to be headed in the right direction.

Shooting Percentage
FT shooting percentage
Rebounds
AST
Blocks


As for the fouls. When you are playing in the post and playing only 16 mins a game. You can afford to foul at a higher rate. You aren't playing 30 minutes. He is out there to be aggressive right now. If that comes with an extra foul, then that ok for now.

Per 36... 5.8 fouls is kind of high. If he can eventually get that down closer to 4.5-4.7 at least he would be in Blairs range.

But with everything else he is improving at, the fouls being high isn't a huge deal just yet. Plus. Keep in mind. He get called on fouls when he is setting picks. And some of that is straight BS I have no idea what he get called for it when I see what other players do.

He is a big boy. I think the refs sometimes hold that against him. If he was a star, he would get called for a chunk of those plays.

Once things I don't see happening as much this year is Wall leaving his big out to hang but starting his drive before they are set. Sure it still happens some but not like in years past.

The Kev did have some nice monster rebounds tonight though and to me, thats what more important. He is being more aggressive rebounding. And his hands even seem to be improving some.

LAL -6
DEN -9
POR -10
OKC -2
PHI +19!!!!

Going to have to actually provide some analysis with that. Paul was -7 against DEN and he had a huge game.
The entire 2nd unit was negative in the POR game and Hump was -12
OKC Hump was -2 also with only 4 pts on 1-3. Kev was 4-9 in 11 min and 9pts. Miller was -7 Rasual added 9pts in 25 mins. Otto was plus 4 in 11 min with 1 pt. If not for Kev, a few more players would have had negative numbers. He pulled the averages up, not down.

The numbers you are provide require context even more so then most numbers. Lets see what cha got for us instead of just throwing out some pretty non contextual numbers.

You want to use that kind of number, you have to also show what that player produced, who else was out there and what they produced, who they played with, how many minutes, what were the other players +/- etc.

[veji1]

plus/minus is a garbage stat for all but the very best of players, because you it is so influenced by the 4 guys around you and the 5 guys you are facing... Guys like Keith Bogans on the 2010-2011 Bulls probably had great plus/minus while bringing diddly squat to the game.

[TheSecretWeapon]

plus/minus is a garbage stat for all but the very best of players, because you it is so influenced by the 4 guys around you and the 5 guys you are facing... Guys like Keith Bogans on the 2010-2011 Bulls probably had great plus/minus while bringing diddly squat to the game.

In general, not really -- plus/minus is worthwhile information.

In specific, wrong. The Bulls were 3.2 points per 100 possessions worse when Bogans was in the game that season. Not only that, but Bogans actually wasn't bad that season. In fact, it was the best season of his career.

[veji1]

plus/minus is a garbage stat for all but the very best of players, because you it is so influenced by the 4 guys around you and the 5 guys you are facing... Guys like Keith Bogans on the 2010-2011 Bulls probably had great plus/minus while bringing diddly squat to the game.

In general, not really -- plus/minus is worthwhile information.

In specific, wrong. The Bulls were 3.2 points per 100 possessions worse when Bogans was in the game that season. Not only that, but Bogans actually wasn't bad that season. In fact, it was the best season of his career.

Plus/minus helps separating good team from bad ones, and in those it helps evaluate units or groupings of players. but as an individual stat it is pretty poor.

[Kanyewest]

Seraphin with 6 boards in 15 minutes in LA. He shot poorly (2-6) but made 3 of 4 free throws. Also, he got stuck shooting one bail-out shot at the end of the 24 clock (an off-balance long 2) and he took a full court heave at the end of the 3rd. He was really more like 2-4 from the field.

Seraphin continues his upgraded play. Over the first 30 games, he was the same old terrible Seraphin we've seen for 4 years. Over the last 14 games, he's been a viable rotation player. I'm not saying he's a quality starter or anything, but he's not bad. Over the past 14 games, he's averaged the following on a per-36 basis:

Pts: 18.1
Reb: 8.6
Ast: 1.9
Blk: 2.0
TO: 2.9
PF: 5.2
TS% .612
ORtg 107
USG% 22.8

There's not enough rebounding, and he's a bit too foul-prone and turnover-prone. But none of those numbers are glaringly bad and they're offset by his solid scoring efficiency on a fairly heavy usage rate for a post player. If this is a new permanent plateau for Seraphin, then I've got no problems with him continuing to get the minutes as our 4th big.

Good breakdown. I thought Seraphim was more active on the boards than usual in last nights game.

[DCZards]

plus/minus is a garbage stat for all but the very best of players, because you it is so influenced by the 4 guys around you and the 5 guys you are facing... Guys like Keith Bogans on the 2010-2011 Bulls probably had great plus/minus while bringing diddly squat to the game.

Yeah, have to agree with you. Hump getting a "0" in the Denver game where he played like a beast convinced me that plus/minus is a terrible way to judge the contribution of an individual player.

[dckingsfan]

Not sure I would discount the +/- too much...

Seraphin's +/- is bad because of his defense (lack of defensive rebounds, fouling, and help defense). He has good from terrible to just very bad.

Don't be fooled with the ability to make shots on the offensive end. You need both offensive and defensive rebounding.

If I had ham, I could have a ham and cheese sandwich if I had cheese.

[hands11]

NBA 2K16 Shoot
https://twitter.com/MonumentalNtwrk/sta ... 52/photo/1

https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/B8d5pOPCYAEtW5z.mp4

He could still tone up some more and build up his chest, but at least he doesn't have baby man boobs anymore.

NBA 2K16 Shoot
http://www.monumentalnetwork.com/videos ... 2k16-shoot

[veji1]

Not sure I would discount the +/- too much...

Seraphin's +/- is bad because of his defense (lack of defensive rebounds, fouling, and help defense). He has good from terrible to just very bad.

Don't be fooled with the ability to make shots on the offensive end. You need both offensive and defensive rebounding.

If I had ham, I could have a ham and cheese sandwich if I had cheese.

No one is being fooled by his ability to make shots. His many many many deficiencies in defense, rebounding, turnovers, etc.. Do not explain his +/-. They explain why he isn't a very good player. But +/- isn't the right tool, because as said before it is a tool too dependent on others (who do you play with, how set is it, against starting fives or benches, etc...).

+/- would be a reliable indicator in a world where players' benching and subbing was completely random, so that over 82 games all the different combinations had been tested by each team. From that "neutral" base, then +/- might teach us something... But regarding Seraphin... it is not helpful,

Considerably more helpful are stats such as his personal rebounding stats (DRB%, TRB%, etc..) which are awful, and his rim protection stats (which are average). Other advanced stats would be good such as missed rotations, etc... TO% as well is a quality stat, etc..

Basically there are lots of relevant stats to show that Seraphin is a flawed player, with one good skill (inside scoring) but lots of issues.

But +/- doesn't bring much to the table in that regard.

[hands11]

http://www.popcornmachine.net/gf?date=2 ... ame=WASPHO

2nd unit got beat up the first time they came out when they had Miller with them. I Thomas got em good and Otto did very little.

When they came out the 2nd time, it was with Temple and they did much better.

Popcorn machine can help understand what's in those +/- game numbers by showing who was there on both teams and what those players contributed in stats.

But even that doesn't tell the complete story. Webster stats say 0-1 from 3 and 3-3 from the line in the 2nd stint. Well, the 3-3 was because he draw a foul on Drag for playing him to close on a curl and smartly got up a 3 attempt as he came around a screen. Its was a brilliant play and a very high impact play. For one, he got to the line and was 3-3 after PHX just made a 3. For two, the team needed more 3s to stretch the D and for three, he forces Drag to play softer or a smart player like Martell will make him pay with 3 FTAs. If other players did that as well, that would soften the D.

The team need more players doing what Martell did. Beal needs to do it. Paul does it.

So again, no numbers are perfect. They take context. +/- can be useful but use the popcorn machine version to get more details.

One of the Wizards biggest problems is what I just described regarding what Webster did. They don't have enough heady crafty players that will do that other then him and Paul. Mainly the problem is Wall, Beal. They need to draw fouls. They need to act a little more then they do. At least at a Paul Pierce level. When Beal comes around a screen and players are all over him, he needs to PP flop his off arm showing he got bumped or he needs to go up quick like Webster did and draw the shooting foul. Instead, he fights through it, gets fouled no called, get run off the 3 line for a long two or a turnover.

I respect the players for just trying to play a clean game but this is the NBA. You need to sell the foul or make the defender pay for putting their hands or body on you. I'm surprised Paul and Webster haven't been able to point this out to Wall and Beal.

[nate33]

Over the last 15 games, Seraphin has an ORtg of 110 on a USG% of 22.9. His USG% ranks 2nd highest on the team, ahead of everyone but Wall. Over the last 15 games, Seraphin has posted a TRB% of 14.8, which beats everyone on the team except Gortat and Humphries.

Put it this way. The Seraphin of the last 15 games is easily a better player than Bradley Beal.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Over the last 15 games, Seraphin has an ORtg of 110 on a USG% of 22.9. His USG% ranks 2nd highest on the team, ahead of everyone but Wall. Over the last 15 games, Seraphin has posted a TRB% of 14.8, which beats everyone on the team except Gortat and Humphries.

Put it this way. The Seraphin of the last 15 games is easily a better player than Bradley Beal.

True. But why leave off that first game in January? Add in that game (so, last 16 games) and his ortg drops to 106. Go back one more game and his ortg rises to 107. Add two more games before that and it drops to 102. Go back 20 games and it's 103. At 21 games it's 101. Arbitrary cutoffs for the win.

He's shooting a high percentage this month. He shot even better than this during March 2012. His shooting dipped the following month, and then he was the league's least productive center for two seasons. It's good to see him playing better this month. Plenty of guys have had a good stretch here and there and then slid back to previously established performance levels. Seraphin has done that himself. He's gotta sustain AND build. He still needs to foul less and cut down the turnovers. A guy shooting 57% from the floor oughta have an ortg better than average offensive efficiency.

[Dat2U]

plus/minus is a garbage stat for all but the very best of players, because you it is so influenced by the 4 guys around you and the 5 guys you are facing... Guys like Keith Bogans on the 2010-2011 Bulls probably had great plus/minus while bringing diddly squat to the game.

Yeah, have to agree with you. Hump getting a "0" in the Denver game where he played like a beast convinced me that plus/minus is a terrible way to judge the contribution of an individual player.

Which is why individual games isn't a good barometer for this +/- stuff. It's fun to bring up and discusss but with a sample size that small there's too much noise with the stat to get real insight.

I happen to think it's a very good stat in terms of taking a picture of a player's effectiveness over time.

But people won't like it for very silly reasons, like the results don't necessarily jibe with their own personal opinions.

[nate33]

Over the last 15 games, Seraphin has an ORtg of 110 on a USG% of 22.9. His USG% ranks 2nd highest on the team, ahead of everyone but Wall. Over the last 15 games, Seraphin has posted a TRB% of 14.8, which beats everyone on the team except Gortat and Humphries.

Put it this way. The Seraphin of the last 15 games is easily a better player than Bradley Beal.

True. But why leave off that first game in January? Add in that game (so, last 16 games) and his ortg drops to 106. Go back one more game and his ortg rises to 107. Add two more games before that and it drops to 102. Go back 20 games and it's 103. At 21 games it's 101. Arbitrary cutoffs for the win.

He's shooting a high percentage this month. He shot even better than this during March 2012. His shooting dipped the following month, and then he was the league's least productive center for two seasons. It's good to see him playing better this month. Plenty of guys have had a good stretch here and there and then slid back to previously established performance levels. Seraphin has done that himself. He's gotta sustain AND build. He still needs to foul less and cut down the turnovers. A guy shooting 57% from the floor oughta have an ortg better than average offensive efficiency.

All true. I'm not saying that this confirms that Seraphin has turned a corner or anything. I'm merely saying that Seraphin has been pretty good for a little while now.

[hands11]

Yeah. The team still needs to tweak things. They are not hitting on all cylinders yet. Either

- Tweaking offense
- Line ups
- player development
- adding a player

Its not all their yet. Some coaching. Some on players. Some on roster.

But it would be good to see some more Temple, given what they have. He made a case for that last night. Dude was hot to start the year then faded. Maybe he deserves another shot and found his mojo again.

[nate33]

I don't think Temple is any kind of real solution. However, it's possible that Miller is feeling a little dinged up and maybe he'll get some more spring in his step if he sits a couple of games out. I'd play Temple over Miller for a game or two if Miller is indeed ailing.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Was just looking at the "extra field points" (xfp) column on my spreadsheet and saw something interesting. How good is Seraphin's FG shooting this year? He's 29th in xfp100 (extra field points per 100 possessions). The Wizards get +2.0 points per 100 possessions due to Seraphin's shooting. Tops in the league is Kyle Korver (shocker) at +5.3. Number two is Durant at +5.0.

Here's all the Wizards this year through my last stat update, which was late last week (so, missing 2-3 games for the Wizards):

Code: Select all

PLAYER      XFP100
Rasual Butler   2.8
Kevin Seraphin   2.0
Andre Miller   1.8
DeJuan Blair   1.7
Marcin Gortat   1.7
Paul Pierce   1.3
Nene Hilario   0.7
Otto Porter   -0.2
Bradley Beal   -0.3
John Wall   -0.5
Garrett Temple   -0.9
Kris Humphries   -1.1
Drew Gooden   -2.1
Martell Webster   -6.5
Glen Rice   -9.5


XFP compares a player's actual points from field goals to "expected" points from their FGA. The formula is (points - free throws) / 2 x (FGA x league efg).

[tontoz]

And then when you take into account foul shots and turnovers it's ...