Why Kevin Seraphin Could Have A Breakout Season

[Ruzious]

Nate, remember Jim Jones served kool-aid, too.

Too soon?

[hands11]

Actually, I think he is the poster child for what they are doing. Developing him and getting him minutes on a team with enough mature players to mentor him until the game slows down, he addresses his areas of weakness, and it all comes together.

His body is ready this year. He slimmed down and kept his strength which gaining quickness and endurance.

What most plagued Kevin was NBA IQ. I.E. The game slowing down. Passing out of doubles. Passing in general. Him playing to fast because the game was so fast and he didn't understand all his options or have experience in dealing with the traps. And that forced him to the one thing he knows he can do as a way out...which is shoot/score. Totally understandable he would default back to something he knows best.

First time I saw him practicing he was putting in time on those hooks. left and right handed. Over and over and over. And I thought, now that nice to see. He wasn't shooting 3s like McGee might have been doing during practice.

The mid range last year was inconsistent because he would often fade backward when shooting it. He has mostly fixed that. Now he goes straight up and is balanced.

He also now has the ability to move and pass the ball around in the context of the offense which he hardly had at all last year. Last year he was just starting to learn how to pass out of the double.

And as of recently, seems he is finishing more often with dunks and I have seen some much better rebounding where he is moving to he ball better or just in the right position period for the ball to land in his hands.

Kevin is a classic example of a young skilled player who wasn't the most mature of people as a young player who needed to keep putting in the work and needed to gather floor time on a team of mature players so he could reach his potential. And he just needed to grow up in general. Bradley Beal he was not. He was closer to a McGee but a think more mentally grounded.

With Kevin, I see one elite skill. I don't think there is, or if there is there aren't many, better at left and right post move iso hook shots. Dude is elite at that. He also runs the floor really really well for his size. And now he can pass out of the post or just rebound and pass.

If he can learn from Nene how to be a elite team defender and if he can improve his rebounding, well now you have something.

And that's important to remember. Nene is his primary mentor and what I see in Kevin is someone who can replicate pretty much everything Nene does. I even noticed him recently doing the post Nene move where he holds the defender off and has the ball out palmed in one hand before initiating his move. Nene also has left and right hook moves. And a mid range. Kevin also has those things. And he has potential to be a much better FT shooter.

For Kevin, he just needs to keep putting in the work, improve in areas of weakness that he can actually do as he learns, and the game will continue to slow down for him. That's what happens once you can read what going on out there and you understand all your options better along with understanding and trusting your own skills.

What he most lacks, that Nene has, is experience and a warrior mature attitude. But I see that improving as well.

Kevin is a very lucky young man. This is pretty much the perfect team and situation for him this year. The winning. The minutes. The mentoring. The Nene, Gortat, Paul, A Miller, Gooden, Rasual vets. Some younger players to connect with as well in Wall, Beal, and Otto. A coach that can teach him the thing he most needed to improve which is team defense.

Short of him being on the SAS, not sure this was a better situation for him this year.

I know the advanced stats say that Seraphin stinks, but I can't help feeling hopeful for the guy. Hands11 is serving the kool-aid and I'm drinking it up.

We all are here to do what we are hear to do... The Matrix - The Oracle: wink:

I, like CCJ, think I have a somewhat unique skill and its seeing these small details in multiple areas, trends, placing them in context and not allowing group think and consensus thinking to overly influence what I see (impossible to illuminate completely. We are a subjected to our human limitations and one of them is our propensity to group think). Its in our nature and how our brains are wired as we are a clan species. Group thinking is important to our survival. It has it purpose and can help at times. It also have its limitations.

Anyway. Its only potential and how it can potentially play out. But he is in a good situation to bring it out and he has the material to do it.

The bigger challenge really is, then what ? That's where is get complicated.

This is one reason its so much better to bring these young players to a team like the Wizard are right now or like a SAS for KL. Imagine Kevin or Ves showing up as rookies to the team today vs the mess it was when they got here. I think their paths would have projected differently. Even McGee might have developed better. You want the answer to Kevin last year or the year before, not this year. Getting the answer this year makes planning a lot tougher.

Keep in mind where and who Wall was his first two years. They focused in on him and putting the right mature players around him and had a huge hand in Wall turning out the way he has. Seems they are also doing a really good job with Beal. And while we haven't seen it, I suspect Otto is on track turning the soil as well.

Tons of work goes into seeing the actually production on the court, then later in the numbers. By the time you see it, you are two years behind understanding what was taking place all alone. Much like how they got good last year as a team and made the 2nd round. That didn't just happen in a void. That all started years before. The Lewis for TA and Okafor. The Nene for McGee and Nick. Adding Webster. And all the while these things are happening, 1000 things can go wrong and it never materializes.

This team is still a work in progress. But they have come a long way.

Like I said Otto needs to step it up while he had an opening. I see Kevin needing to so the same. Like right now.

Now is the time to show signs of putting it all together. Because after the all star break, who get minutes and the decisions that go into that can change a lot.

[hands11]

I know the advanced stats say that Seraphin stinks, but I can't help feeling hopeful for the guy. Hands11 is serving the kool-aid and I'm drinking it up.

Remember that hands makes kook-aid, not kool-aid. Proceed with caution.

I was just in Colorado so now I'm even more dangerous.

[DCZards]

I know the advanced stats say that Seraphin stinks, but I can't help feeling hopeful for the guy. Hands11 is serving the kool-aid and I'm drinking it up.

Remember that hands makes kook-aid, not kool-aid. Proceed with caution.

To Hands' credit, he was serving pretty much the same kool-aid when the Zards were winning 20 games a season. Now, they're 29-14 and the second best team in the East so there's probably a LOT more Zards fans drinking Hands' kool-aid.

[nate33]

To be fair, Hands only serves kool-aid. He served kool-aid about Vesely, Pecherov and Blatche too. There is no prune juice at Hands11's home.

[tontoz]

To be fair, Hands only serves kool-aid. He served kool-aid about Vesely, Pecherov and Blatche too. There is no prune juice at Hands11's home.

and Crawford. Do they serve kool-aid in China?

[hands11]

To be fair, Hands only serves kool-aid. He served kool-aid about Vesely, Pecherov and Blatche too. There is no prune juice at Hands11's home.

No Kool-Aid for OP.
Ves could have worked out better. He landed in a bad situation for him. I was hopeful for him but presented his challenges.
Blatche was actually a good talent. Just on a messed up team and he had a messed up mind.
I was swimming upstream against Glen and placed very limited expectation on him this year when the board was drinking big time.
I was anti AJ starting and said he would be over priced in that 2nd contract. Don't do it. Bring him off the bench or let him walk.
I was anti EFJ in a big way. For years. I didn't buy into his weave and heave, max minutes, coatail riding, no defensive ways.
And my biggest swim up stream was telling people in the middle of them looking the best they had in over a decade..don't drink the

GILBERT KOOK-AID

I have been against plenty of things in a vocal way. It would be a vastly unfair representation to just brush off all the things I was Kool-Aid about and got right by suggesting like I am always that way. I'm not.

Can't just bend in the wind all the time Nate. You had the vision about the team and let the hoard wear you down.

[dckingsfan]

To be fair, Hands only serves kool-aid. He served kool-aid about Vesely, Pecherov and Blatche too. There is no prune juice at Hands11's home.

But eventually he will be right - and then the inevitable - told you so!

[hands11]

To be fair, Hands only serves kool-aid. He served kool-aid about Vesely, Pecherov and Blatche too. There is no prune juice at Hands11's home.

But eventually he will be right - and then the inevitable - told you so!

Right, cuz no one here ever does the I told you so.

How about this. Give me the list of people that haven't or just highlight every time someone does and comment about them doing it as much as you do about me.

Or just stop the strawman. Its not conducive to a fun board where we are talking about our team instead of talking down posters.

Nate's shot was legit. It was wrong but funny and legit. Yours isn't.

I will I told you so right along with everyone else. That's what we do here. We project what we think will happen. We project players, moves, games. And then people I told you so.

Your issue with me getting things right isn't my issue. lol

[closg00]

To be fair, Hands only serves kool-aid. He served kool-aid about Vesely, Pecherov and Blatche too. There is no prune juice at Hands11's home.

This is a HOF post, who's with me? No prune juice

[Dat2U]

It's already been noted but the disconnect b/w what the advanced stats say and what the media, coaches & fans are saying about Seraphin is astonishing, especially in the advanced stat age were in now.

I was just looking at a fairly recent article on Bullets forerver regarding whether Seraphin should be re-signed and it's damn near unanimous that he's significantly improved and should be re-signed based on all the comments.

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2015/1/22 ... eport-card

[keynote]

To be fair, Hands only serves kool-aid. He served kool-aid about Vesely, Pecherov and Blatche too. There is no prune juice at Hands11's home.

Counterpoint: Hands is one of the board's more regular posters.

[nate33]

Over Seraphin's last 13 games, his advanced stats are as follows:
TS% .627
ORtg 108
DRtg 104
TRB% 14.3
AST% 9.0
TO% 17.3
USG% 22.9

For comparison, Nene's advanced numbers on the entire season are:
TS% .547
ORtg 104
DRtg 101
TRB% 12.0
AST% 13.0
TO% 13.3
USG% 21.6

Seraphin is actually the better rebounder and the more efficient scorer on a higher usage rate. He turns the ball over a lot more than Nene, but makes up for it with his efficient shooting.

Seraphin has definitely been playing better lately. Over the last 9 games his numbers are similar except his TS% is .656, his ORtg is 111, and his USG% is 24.6.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Over Seraphin's last 13 games, his advanced stats are as follows:
TS% .627
ORtg 108
DRtg 104
TRB% 14.3
AST% 9.0
TO% 17.3
USG% 22.9

For comparison, Nene's advanced numbers on the entire season are:
TS% .547
ORtg 104
DRtg 101
TRB% 12.0
AST% 13.0
TO% 13.3
USG% 21.6

Seraphin is actually the better rebounder and the more efficient scorer on a higher usage rate. He turns the ball over a lot more than Nene, but makes up for it with his efficient shooting.

Seraphin has definitely been playing better lately. Over the last 9 games his numbers are similar except his TS% is .656, his ORtg is 111, and his USG% is 24.6.

When I looked at Seraphin's month, a MAJOR chunk of his production came in that one fantastic performance against San Antonio. The other big chunk was against Philly. Still nice to see those games, of course.

Also interesting to note that the team has been -8.4 per 48 minutes during his minutes this month.

[AFM]

Over Seraphin's last 13 games, his advanced stats are as follows:
TS% .627
ORtg 108
DRtg 104
TRB% 14.3
AST% 9.0
TO% 17.3
USG% 22.9

For comparison, Nene's advanced numbers on the entire season are:
TS% .547
ORtg 104
DRtg 101
TRB% 12.0
AST% 13.0
TO% 13.3
USG% 21.6

Seraphin is actually the better rebounder and the more efficient scorer on a higher usage rate. He turns the ball over a lot more than Nene, but makes up for it with his efficient shooting.

Seraphin has definitely been playing better lately. Over the last 9 games his numbers are similar except his TS% is .656, his ORtg is 111, and his USG% is 24.6.

When I looked at Seraphin's month, a MAJOR chunk of his production came in that one fantastic performance against San Antonio. The other big chunk was against Philly. Still nice to see those games, of course.

Also interesting to note that the team has been -8.4 per 48 minutes during his minutes this month.

Isn't that more of an indictment of the bench as a whole?

[nate33]

Isn't that more of an indictment of the bench as a whole?

Agreed. Seraphin has his issues, but it's not fair to blame the poor production of the entire bench on him. A lot of it has to do with Miller sucking and Butler coming back down to Earth. Beal has been pretty crappy when not alongside Wall as well. And despite the decline of his teammates and the resulting additional defensive attention directed toward Seraphin, he has improved his play.

I still wish he could rebound.

[dckingsfan]

Plus, he was only a -9 last night, and 4 fouls in 14 minutes, so we are seeing substantial improvement

[payitforward]

...conducive to a fun board where we are talking about our team instead of talking down posters.

This is a key point, and I would like to commend Hands -- who was developing a propensity for just that: "talking down posters" -- for turning it around. I did some of that too, and I've tried hard to stop doing it, I hope with some success. I invite anyone who notices me do it, talk down one of the posters here (especially the core group, all of whom have been Wizards/Bullets fans for a long long time), to please point it out.

As to Kevin Seraphin, I can't imagine how anyone can think he's a good NBA player, or even an improving one for that matter. Improving overall, I mean. His FG% is up a little bit -- not nearly as much as people want to believe -- from his 2d year in the league. The rest of his numbers have hovered around absolutely awful his whole career, and they still do.

He's a nice kid, I wanted to pick him where we did, and he's a Wizard so I want him to be better than he is. But wanting something doesn't make it so. And adding a desire to "be right" -- something we all have -- doesn't help either.

[DCZards]

Plus, he was only a -9 last night, and 4 fouls in 14 minutes, so we are seeing substantial improvement

I saw that -9 for KS last night. Then I also saw that Gortat, who had 7 pts, on 3 of 7 shooting, and 11 rebs was a +11, while Hump with 21 pts., on 9-13 shooting, and 14 rebs was a 0. How is that? How much validity can I give those plus-minus #s when Hump clearly had a better game than Gortat against Denver yet is a "0" while Gortat is a "+11"? Am I missing something?

[TheSecretWeapon]

Seraphin got off to a TERRIBLE start to the season. In December, he improved his shooting, rebounding and turnovers, although his assists dropped too. This month, his shooting and rebounding have improved again, as did his assists (slightly), although his turnovers went up again.

It's fair to say that Seraphin has become more productive since that awful start. But, it's also fair to say he still has a ways to go. Despite the fantastic shooting this month -- really over the last 30 games -- his offensive efficiency is still below average. That's because of the turnovers and in ability to get to the FT line. And he still fouls way too much.

I think folks believe he's having a good year because he makes shots. The negative plays are a bit more subtle -- failing to get rebounds. committing turnovers, fouling.