Why Kevin Seraphin Could Have A Breakout Season

[Dat2U]

Plus, he was only a -9 last night, and 4 fouls in 14 minutes, so we are seeing substantial improvement

I saw that -9 for KS last night. Then I also saw that Gortat, who had 7 pts, on 3 of 7 shooting, and 11 rebs was a +11, while Hump with 21 pts., on 9-13 shooting, and 14 rebs was a 0. How is that? How much validity can I give those plus-minus #s when Hump clearly had a better game than Gortat against Denver yet is a "0" while Gortat is a "+11"? Am I missing something?

Basically our starters were really good while our backups struggled for the most part. But that's been the case most of the year except for the brief time when Nene was coming off the bench and our bench did well.

Humphries got extended run with both units last night so his +/- numbers evened out.

[DCZards]

Seraphin got off to a TERRIBLE start to the season. In December, he improved his shooting, rebounding and turnovers, although his assists dropped too. This month, his shooting and rebounding have improved again, as did his assists (slightly), although his turnovers went up again.

It's fair to say that Seraphin has become more productive since that awful start. But, it's also fair to say he still has a ways to go. Despite the fantastic shooting this month -- really over the last 30 games -- his offensive efficiency is still below average. That's because of the turnovers and in ability to get to the FT line. And he still fouls way too much.

I think folks believe he's having a good year because he makes shots. The negative plays are a bit more subtle -- failing to get rebounds. committing turnovers, fouling.

That's a fair assessment of KS's season and you'll get no argument from me regarding Seraphin's shortcomings--fouling, turnovers, lack of rebounding. But he continues to improve in at least one important aspect of the game--shooting. And, while he will be probably never be even an average rebounder, I think it's safe to hold out hope that KS will cut down on the fouls and turnovers as he gets more experience.

P.S.: Kevin has gotten a number of questionable fouls called against him, calls that probably wouldn't be made against more high-profile, established players.

[DCZards]

Plus, he was only a -9 last night, and 4 fouls in 14 minutes, so we are seeing substantial improvement

I saw that -9 for KS last night. Then I also saw that Gortat, who had 7 pts, on 3 of 7 shooting, and 11 rebs was a +11, while Hump with 21 pts., on 9-13 shooting, and 14 rebs was a 0. How is that? How much validity can I give those plus-minus #s when Hump clearly had a better game than Gortat against Denver yet is a "0" while Gortat is a "+11"? Am I missing something?

Basically our starters were really good while our backups struggled for the most part. But that's been the case most of the year except for the brief time when Nene was coming off the bench and our bench did well.

Humphries got extended run with both units last night so his +/- numbers evened out.

That's kinda the problem I have with using +/- numbers to assess an individual player's performance, because those #s are greatly impacted by your teammates' play.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Well, is it realistic to think Seraphin could improve or even sustain his shooting? He's shooting 56% in December and January. When looked at with the rest of his body of work, his recent shooting falls into the "one of these things is not like the other" category. And, shooting from the floor is the most variable stat year to year in the NBA.

The more likely scenario is that Seraphin's shooting will slide back toward previously established levels, even if he genuinely has improved his shooting. And given the turnovers, fouling and meh rebounding, he NEEDS a FG% of 56+% to be useful. Not many guys shoot that well over full seasons.

[dckingsfan]

Seraphin got off to a TERRIBLE start to the season. In December, he improved his shooting, rebounding and turnovers, although his assists dropped too. This month, his shooting and rebounding have improved again, as did his assists (slightly), although his turnovers went up again.

It's fair to say that Seraphin has become more productive since that awful start. But, it's also fair to say he still has a ways to go. Despite the fantastic shooting this month -- really over the last 30 games -- his offensive efficiency is still below average. That's because of the turnovers and in ability to get to the FT line. And he still fouls way too much.

I think folks believe he's having a good year because he makes shots. The negative plays are a bit more subtle -- failing to get rebounds. committing turnovers, fouling.

That's a fair assessment of KS's season and you'll get no argument from me regarding Seraphin's shortcomings--fouling, turnovers, lack of rebounding. But he continues to improve in at least one important aspect of the game--shooting. And, while he will be probably never be even an average rebounder, I think it's safe to hold out hope that KS will cut down on the fouls and turnovers as he gets more experience.

P.S.: Kevin has gotten a number of questionable fouls called against him, calls that probably wouldn't be made against more high-profile, established players.

Funny, watching the game I saw both... fouls that shouldn't have been called against him and fouls that should have but weren't. If he does have a rep with the refs, that isn't a good thing. There was the one block against Hickson, I was scratching my head. Then there was a rake against Arthur (I think), I was please he got away with that one.

Either way, he fouls at an alarming rate...

[Dat2U]

I saw that -9 for KS last night. Then I also saw that Gortat, who had 7 pts, on 3 of 7 shooting, and 11 rebs was a +11, while Hump with 21 pts., on 9-13 shooting, and 14 rebs was a 0. How is that? How much validity can I give those plus-minus #s when Hump clearly had a better game than Gortat against Denver yet is a "0" while Gortat is a "+11"? Am I missing something?

Basically our starters were really good while our backups struggled for the most part. But that's been the case most of the year except for the brief time when Nene was coming off the bench and our bench did well.

Humphries got extended run with both units last night so his +/- numbers evened out.

That's kinda the problem I have with using +/- numbers to assess an individual player's performance, because those #s are greatly impacted by your teammates' play.

Sure, with small sample sizes there is a ton of noise... but as you get a larger sample size, the results have less noise.

Over the course of his career, Kevin's +/- numbers have been terrible including this season when many folks are arguing he's playing the best of his career. So maybe there is some truth to the argument that despite his array of offensive skills, he's more a burden than an asset on-court.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Basically our starters were really good while our backups struggled for the most part. But that's been the case most of the year except for the brief time when Nene was coming off the bench and our bench did well.

Humphries got extended run with both units last night so his +/- numbers evened out.

That's kinda the problem I have with using +/- numbers to assess an individual player's performance, because those #s are greatly impacted by your teammates' play.

Sure, with small sample sizes there is a ton of noise... but as you get a larger sample size, the results have less noise.

Over the course of his career, Kevin's +/- numbers have been terrible including this season when many folks are arguing he's playing the best of his career. So maybe there is some truth to the argument that despite his array of offensive skills, he's more a burden than an asset on-court.

Realistically speaking, the "small sample size" issue occurs with every kind of information.

[dobrojim]

Back to TSW? Can I credit my reference to CJ of a week ago?

[veji1]

Seraphin is coming into his own, but this doesn't mean fans should be fooled as to what his own is : Seraphin can make a career in the NBA, but as an offensive bench big on competent teams. The only way Seraphin could play starting minutes would be if he were on one of the 5/8 crappy teams in the league.

Sure he remains ineffecient in many metrics, but he will get a hook shot up most of the time If you dump him the ball, even with TOs and such. And for many teams whose second units are starved of scoring, this is already enough. he will get a decentish contract and will keep playing in the NBA : he will get a couple of years at 10/12 ppg in the right situation but will mainly be a 7/8ppg 4rbds 20minpg type of bench player, and that's not bad in the end !

[TheSecretWeapon]

Back to TSW? Can I credit my reference to CJ of a week ago?

Absolutely -- that's what made me think of it.

[AFM]

Anyone seen Nivek recently?

[TheSecretWeapon]

Seraphin is coming into his own, but this doesn't mean fans should be fooled as to what his own is : Seraphin can make a career in the NBA, but as an offensive bench big on competent teams. The only way Seraphin could play starting minutes would be if he were on one of the 5/8 crappy teams in the league.

Sure he remains ineffecient in many metrics, but he will get a hook shot up most of the time If you dump him the ball, even with TOs and such. And for many teams whose second units are starved of scoring, this is already enough. he will get a decentish contract and will keep playing in the NBA : he will get a couple of years at 10/12 ppg in the right situation but will mainly be a 7/8ppg 4rbds 20minpg type of bench player, and that's not bad in the end !

Roughly 27% of Seraphin's FGA this season are hooks. He's shooting 70.6% on those attempts, which is outstanding. On non-hook attempts (73% of his shots), he's shooting .486, which is decent but not good enough. And he doesn't get to the FT line. And he turns it over 20% of the time.

So, a Seraphin possession is slightly less likely to result in a made hook shot (about 18% of his possessions) as it is a turnover (20%).

[TheSecretWeapon]

Anyone seen Nivek recently?

Who?

[veji1]

Seraphin is coming into his own, but this doesn't mean fans should be fooled as to what his own is : Seraphin can make a career in the NBA, but as an offensive bench big on competent teams. The only way Seraphin could play starting minutes would be if he were on one of the 5/8 crappy teams in the league.

Sure he remains ineffecient in many metrics, but he will get a hook shot up most of the time If you dump him the ball, even with TOs and such. And for many teams whose second units are starved of scoring, this is already enough. he will get a decentish contract and will keep playing in the NBA : he will get a couple of years at 10/12 ppg in the right situation but will mainly be a 7/8ppg 4rbds 20minpg type of bench player, and that's not bad in the end !

Roughly 27% of Seraphin's FGA this season are hooks. He's shooting 70.6% on those attempts, which is outstanding. On non-hook attempts (73% of his shots), he's shooting .486, which is decent but not good enough. And he doesn't get to the FT line. And he turns it over 20% of the time.

So, a Seraphin possession is slightly less likely to result in a made hook shot (about 18% of his possessions) as it is a turnover (20%).

thanks dude for taking it literally when I said hook shot. But I suppose you caught my drift : Seraphin in a second unit is useful because he will get a shot off (and a decent quality one) most of the time, and for many teams where second units just fail to get a decent shot off, well it has value in itself. I am far from pretending that he is an efficient player nor a great one. I am just saying that he has a skill that will give him contracts for the next few years. That's it. But thank you for letting me know that from a statistical point of view my post was literally wrong : Seraphin is indeed less likely to make a hook shot than to commit a turnover. Thanks for that.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Seraphin is coming into his own, but this doesn't mean fans should be fooled as to what his own is : Seraphin can make a career in the NBA, but as an offensive bench big on competent teams. The only way Seraphin could play starting minutes would be if he were on one of the 5/8 crappy teams in the league.

Sure he remains ineffecient in many metrics, but he will get a hook shot up most of the time If you dump him the ball, even with TOs and such. And for many teams whose second units are starved of scoring, this is already enough. he will get a decentish contract and will keep playing in the NBA : he will get a couple of years at 10/12 ppg in the right situation but will mainly be a 7/8ppg 4rbds 20minpg type of bench player, and that's not bad in the end !

Roughly 27% of Seraphin's FGA this season are hooks. He's shooting 70.6% on those attempts, which is outstanding. On non-hook attempts (73% of his shots), he's shooting .486, which is decent but not good enough. And he doesn't get to the FT line. And he turns it over 20% of the time.

So, a Seraphin possession is slightly less likely to result in a made hook shot (about 18% of his possessions) as it is a turnover (20%).

thanks dude for taking it literally when I said hook shot. But I suppose you caught my drift : Seraphin in a second unit is useful because he will get a shot off (and a decent quality one) most of the time, and for many teams where second units just fail to get a decent shot off, well it has value in itself. I am far from pretending that he is an efficient player nor a great one. I am just saying that he has a skill that will give him contracts for the next few years. That's it. But thank you for letting me know that from a statistical point of view my post was literally wrong : Seraphin is indeed less likely to make a hook shot than to commit a turnover. Thanks for that.

Even figuratively your post is (mostly) wrong.

First, the notion that you can play a guy to get one particular aspect of his game is mostly erroneous. Situational substitutions are rare in basketball. Guys fall into roles to be sure, but they still have to play both ends. A player's usefulness depends on the overall impact of his performance -- not one particular aspect of it. In Seraphin's case, whatever good he does on offense must be measured by the lack of rebounding and the fouling.

Second, the notion that Seraphin helps a second unit because he can get off a shot is also incomplete and therefore wrong. Seraphin gets to the free throw line infrequently and commits LOTS of turnovers. That's why his overall offensive efficiency remains below average even with a good FG%. This is why analytics are useful. We can't just say "Seraphin can get a shot and wow, look at that great FG%" and conclude he's helping his team on offense. What matters is the overall effect, and that effect is below average.

The point I agree with is that his ability to make shots (this season -- in previous seasons he wasn't as good) is indeed likely to give him contracts the next few years. That doesn't mean he'll actually be helping whatever team he signs with. In fact, he won't be helping that new team unless he gets better at rebounding, cuts down on the turnovers, stops fouling so much, etc.

[hands11]

Seraphin got off to a TERRIBLE start to the season. In December, he improved his shooting, rebounding and turnovers, although his assists dropped too. This month, his shooting and rebounding have improved again, as did his assists (slightly), although his turnovers went up again.

It's fair to say that Seraphin has become more productive since that awful start. But, it's also fair to say he still has a ways to go. Despite the fantastic shooting this month -- really over the last 30 games -- his offensive efficiency is still below average. That's because of the turnovers and in ability to get to the FT line. And he still fouls way too much.

I think folks believe he's having a good year because he makes shots. The negative plays are a bit more subtle -- failing to get rebounds. committing turnovers, fouling.

That's a fair assessment of KS's season and you'll get no argument from me regarding Seraphin's shortcomings--fouling, turnovers, lack of rebounding. But he continues to improve in at least one important aspect of the game--shooting. And, while he will be probably never be even an average rebounder, I think it's safe to hold out hope that KS will cut down on the fouls and turnovers as he gets more experience.

P.S.: Kevin has gotten a number of questionable fouls called against him, calls that probably wouldn't be made against more high-profile, established players.

Funny, watching the game I saw both... fouls that shouldn't have been called against him and fouls that should have but weren't. If he does have a rep with the refs, that isn't a good thing. There was the one block against Hickson, I was scratching my head. Then there was a rake against Arthur (I think), I was please he got away with that one.

Either way, he fouls at an alarming rate...

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_ ... n-seraphin

Numbers seem to be headed in the right direction.

Shooting Percentage
FT shooting percentage
Rebounds
AST
Blocks


As for the fouls. When you are playing in the post and playing only 16 mins a game. You can afford to foul at a higher rate. You aren't playing 30 minutes. He is out there to be aggressive right now. If that comes with an extra foul, then that ok for now.

Per 36... 5.8 fouls is kind of high. If he can eventually gets that down closer to 4.5-4.7 at least he would be in Blairs range.

But with everything else he is improving at, the fouls being high isn't a huge deal just yet. Plus. Keep in mind. He gets called on fouls when he is setting picks. And some of that is straight BS I have no idea why he get called for it when I see what other players do.

He is a big boy. I think the refs sometimes hold that against him. If he was a star, he wouldn't get called for a chunk of those plays.

One things I don't see happening as much this year is Wall leaving his big out to hang by starting his drive before they are set. Sure it still happens some but not like in years past.

The Kev did have some nice monster rebounds or two tonight though and to me, thats what more important. He is being more aggressive rebounding. And his hands even seem to be improving some.

[veji1]

The point I agree with is that his ability to make shots (this season -- in previous seasons he wasn't as good) is indeed likely to give him contracts the next few years. That doesn't mean he'll actually be helping whatever team he signs with.

This is the exactly the point I am making. Nothing more or less. He is showing a skill that will get him contracts. whether he is a net positive contributor or not wasn't my point at all. Just that many teams will see in him a skill they need and they are willing to pay (a reasonable amount of money) for : someone who can get that second unit offense going. Whether it compensates for all his flaws or not wasn't my point at all.

[TheSecretWeapon]

The point I agree with is that his ability to make shots (this season -- in previous seasons he wasn't as good) is indeed likely to give him contracts the next few years. That doesn't mean he'll actually be helping whatever team he signs with.

This is the exactly the point I am making. Nothing more or less. He is showing a skill that will get him contracts. whether he is a net positive contributor or not wasn't my point at all. Just that many teams will see in him a skill they need and they are willing to pay (a reasonable amount of money) for : someone who can get that second unit offense going. Whether it compensates for all his flaws or not wasn't my point at all.

Oh.

Sorry.

[veji1]

The point I agree with is that his ability to make shots (this season -- in previous seasons he wasn't as good) is indeed likely to give him contracts the next few years. That doesn't mean he'll actually be helping whatever team he signs with.

This is the exactly the point I am making. Nothing more or less. He is showing a skill that will get him contracts. whether he is a net positive contributor or not wasn't my point at all. Just that many teams will see in him a skill they need and they are willing to pay (a reasonable amount of money) for : someone who can get that second unit offense going. Whether it compensates for all his flaws or not wasn't my point at all.

Oh.

Sorry.

No worries, I suppose I came out like a Seraphin Apologist while this wasn't what I meant.

[dobrojim]

Back to TSW? Can I credit my reference to CJ of a week ago?

Absolutely -- that's what made me think of it.

Nice to think I made such an important contribution to the board.