GT#1 Round 1 Wizards vs Raptors 4-18-15 12:30 PM on ESPN @ ACC (Canada Eh)

Post #921 » by **nate33** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 2:39 pm

Playoff Nene is an entirely different player than Regular Season Nene.

Also, this isn't the Kyle Lowry of the first two months of the season. That guy was a top 5 PG in the league. This Kyle Lowry has an ailing back, making him a fairly average starting PG.

Finally, Toronto's superior bench isn't as much of a factor when the Wizards can play their starters heavy minutes due to the playoff format.

Higga · Post #922 » by **Higga** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 2:44 pm

Things I liked:

-Our team defense. We didn't give up very many easy shots, at least until the very end. And in OT we completely locked them down.
-Porter's activity. I know he didn't have the most productive game scoring but he grabbed some tough boards and made life tough on Derozan. And of course he did have the dagger floater to ice it in OT.
-Beal's aggressiveness. He missed a lot of shots(see below)but he wanted the ball and he was at least trying to take the game over. And that And 1 when Lowry hit him dirty was sick.
-Nene early on. Attacked the basket and was the mean angry presence we saw last year. We need more of that.
-Paul Pierce. What more needs to be said? Guy just knows how to get it done in the playoffs. THE TRUTH.

Things I disliked:

-Beal missing shots. Not much you can really say or do, he's gotta shoot them, and hopefully next game he hits them.
-Gortat's softness. So many times he got the ball off the pick and roll but instead of being more aggressive attacking the basket he settles for a short jumper which bricks 90% of the time. You're the Polish Hammer, freakin attack!
-Wall's "dribble until 5 seconds on the shotclock" offense, particularly late, but we had a lot of possessions like that. Honestly Wall all around was just sluggish although he did make some nice passes late.
-Wittman's offense in general. This has probably been discussed to death so no need to go further. The guy is just incompetent when it comes to designing plays.

I didn't like this matchup going in but its clear this team's style translates better to the playoffs then Toronto's. They're the better offensive team but as stevemcqueen said above, offense wins in the regular season but in the playoffs its all about D and playing a more physical, nasty style. Thats how we do it. I now think we'll win this series in 6.

Post #923 » by **Zonkerbl** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 3:05 pm

Lol at all the complaining.

Given that they won, I think they arguably accomplished everything they had to in order to win. By definition.

Gotta love the Zards' playoff defense.

Brenice · Post #924 » by **Brenice** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 3:06 pm

nate33 wrote:Playoff Nene is an entirely different player than Regular Season Nene.

Toronto has a big problem with the strength of Nene. It hurts their rebounding. When a Raptor like Amir Johnson engages with Nene under the basket, he is not being able to get separation from Nene quick enough to get to rebounds in HIS area. Next thing you know, the rebound is near Amir and is a loose ball, but Amir hasn't gained separation and next thing you know, a Wizard is beating Amir to the rebound. That's what defensive lineman in football have to be able to do, get separation after engaging.

AFM · Post #925 » by **AFM** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 3:20 pm

Cant wait for tomorrow night

Paul "GOAT of All Time" Pierce Part 2
John "Can't Play Worse than Game 1" Wall
Bradley "Ditto" Beal
Otto "Otto-Fellatio" Porter
Kevin "Skyhook of Peace" Seraphin
Drew "Trigger Happy" Gooden
Marcin "Swear I'm Not Juicing" Gortat

dckingsfan · Post #926 » by **dckingsfan** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 3:24 pm

nate33 wrote:Playoff Nene is an entirely different player than Regular Season Nene.

Also, this isn't the Kyle Lowry of the first two months of the season. That guy was a top 5 PG in the league. This Kyle Lowry has an ailing back, making him a fairly average starting PG.

Finally, Toronto's superior bench isn't as much of a factor when the Wizards can play their starters heavy minutes due to the playoff format.

This - and that Wittman is a better defensive coach - and there you have it...

closg00 · Post #927 » by **closg00** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 3:46 pm

JV is skilled, Casey isn't managing his roster properly IMO. That and he can't coach either

#FireErnie ~ Because he believed Stephen Curry couldn't help us and Jan Vesely could.

Post #928 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 7:04 pm

I re-estimated the odds of each team winning their first round playoff series. The only one to change significantly was the Wizards-Raptors matchup. By winning game one, Wiz odds of winning the series flipped from from 30% to 56%.

dobrojim · Post #929 » by **dobrojim** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 7:46 pm

me likey

that seems like a reasonable calculation

still gotta win 3 more games

fishercob · Post #930 » by **fishercob** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 8:53 pm

Maybe get that game 2 thread up?

queridiculo · Post #931 » by **queridiculo** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 9:01 pm

Beal could go 0 for 23 and I wouldn't start Temple. That is unless of course Beal lost an arm in a chainsaw accident and went out shooting lefties the next day, all in a bid to one up Ronnie Lott.

hands11 · Post #932 » by **hands11** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 10:35 pm

AFM wrote:Cant wait for tomorrow night

Paul "GOAT of All Time" Pierce Part 2
John "Can't Play Worse than Game 1" Wall
Bradley "Ditto" Beal
Otto "Otto-Fellatio" Porter
Kevin "Skyhook of Peace" Seraphin
Drew "Trigger Happy" Gooden
Marcin "Swear I'm Not Juicing" Gortat

Thread worthy in its own right.

Whats with the Otto "Otto-Fellatio" Porter ?

Marcin could be

Marcin "I rolling every time" Gortat

and no Nene
Nene "Is it the playoffs yet" Nene

..

John "Watch this crossover" Wall
Bradley "I'll hit the next one" Beal
Paul "Raptor Slayer" Pierce
Otto "**** these goggles Go Go Gadget" Porter
Marcin "I rolling every time no comment" Gortat
Nene "Is it the playoffs yet" Nene
Kevin "Skyhook of Peace" Seraphin
Drew "Watch this long 2" Gooden
Kris "One more foot back pretty boy" Humphries
Ramon" Small Hands" Sessions

lead by
Randy " which way does this go two minutes to late" Wittman

payitforward · Post #933 » by **payitforward** » Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:30 am

TheSecretWeapon wrote:I re-estimated the odds of each team winning their first round playoff series. The only one to change significantly was the Wizards-Raptors matchup. By winning game one, Wiz odds of winning the series flipped from from 30% to 56%.

Well I guess... we just took home court advantage away from them! If anything -- assuming we only had a 30% chance prior to game 1 -- I'd say those new odds short us slightly.

1. They have to win 4 games to take the series; we only have to win 3 games to take it. That fact alone suffices to give us a slight edge.
2. If both teams win all home court games from here forward, they don't get to game 7 - we win in 6.
3. If we win game 2, the series is out of Toronto's reach.
4. Should they win game 2, it becomes a shortened 5-game series in which we have home court advantage.
3. Of the first 4 games of that shortened series, 3 are on our court.

Post #934 » by **pineappleheadindc** » Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:51 am

evolushunize - dude, we all waiting for a game #2 thread.

:nod:

Post #935 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Tue Apr 21, 2015 2:51 am

payitforward wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:I re-estimated the odds of each team winning their first round playoff series. The only one to change significantly was the Wizards-Raptors matchup. By winning game one, Wiz odds of winning the series flipped from from 30% to 56%.

Well I guess... we just took home court advantage away from them! If anything -- assuming we only had a 30% chance prior to game 1 -- I'd say those new odds short us slightly.

1. They have to win 4 games to take the series; we only have to win 3 games to take it. That fact alone suffices to give us a slight edge.
2. If both teams win all home court games from here forward, they don't get to game 7 - we win in 6.
3. If we win game 2, the series is out of Toronto's reach.
4. Should they win game 2, it becomes a shortened 5-game series in which we have home court advantage.
3. Of the first 4 games of that shortened series, 3 are on our court.

I hear ya. I sorta thought (before I did the math) that the odds might swing more in the Wizards favor. My approach is actually a little more favorable to the WIzards than some other prognostications. Basketball-Reference, for example, has the Wizards with a 52.5% chance of winning the series from this point.

What's showing in the probability numbers is that winning three consecutive home games won't be easy for the Wizards. It's not "easy" for any team, really. There's an advantage playing at home, but it doesn't trump everything else. On average (after accounting for HCA), Toronto will win roughly 60% of its games against the Wizards in Toronto; the Wizards will win about half of its games against Toronto at Verizon Center. But, the odds of the Wizards winning three in a row at home against Toronto is only about 13%. Similarly, the odds of Toronto winning four in a row against the Wizards in Toronto is only about 12%. Washington "struck" first, but now have the task of holding home court, which will be challenging.

I think my calculator just said that neither team can actually win this series. :cry:

hands11 · Post #936 » by **hands11** » Mon Apr 27, 2015 2:22 am

Dark Faze Thu Apr 16, 2015 3:20 pm wrote:my only hope is that Wall isn't ruined mentally by what is about to happen

Yeah.. I sure hope that sweep doesn't ruin him.. :lol:

hands11 · Post #937 » by **hands11** » Mon Apr 27, 2015 2:32 am

hands11 Apr 17, 2015 wrote:
PierceFan4ever wrote:Have faith DMV, I'm sure most of the veterans and Beal will step up their games for the playoffs. After all, the Wizards roster is built for the postseason. Will be in attendance rooting for you guys hard in game 3. Good luck!

Wizards have all the mental advantages.

Last, I wanted CHI and called it in 6.. It went in 5

This year I wanted TOR... Ok.. Read the details of why if could happen ... Wizards in 4

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1382938&start=200

And they have plenty of line ups to through at them.
http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1382938&start=180#start_here

Last, I wanted CHI and called it in 6.. It went in 5

This year I wanted TOR. Wizards in 4

Yeepp.. Wizards in 4 it is.

hands11 · Post #938 » by **hands11** » Mon Apr 27, 2015 2:37 am

nuposse04 Fri Apr 17, 2015 wrote:
milellie111 wrote:We are a team that will be very dangerous based on veteran experience. Nene, Paul Pierce and Gooden have experience in these situations. Nene will be well rested and like last year vs Chicago, will prove to be a huge advantage for us. Randy has enough big bodies to rotate around now and Sessions can keep the second unit uptempo. I even like the Sessions/Wall combo Wittman plays at times. A mix of fresh young legs with Wall, Beal and Otto joined together with hungry vets are the key ingredients to a scary playoff team. The Wizards may soon be called the "Spurs of the East"

This may have some validity in bizarro world.

Gooden is experienced vet yes, but was garbage in the playoffs last season, I expect more of the same. Nene will break down. Out of everyone you mentioned, you didn't even say Gortat...who is probably are most consistent player.

We only 3 young players worth a damn. And only Wall is someone you could call Very Good/Great.

How is it possible to have your head shoved that far up ones own rectum? It boggles my mind.

Seems Milli was right.

Gooden says hi..

hands11 · Post #939 » by **hands11** » Mon Apr 27, 2015 2:48 am

TGW Fri Apr 17, 2015 wrote:Michael Lee from WAPO ranked the Wizards as the #13 ranked team in the playoffs, above only Milwaukee and Boston. Sounds about right:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/spor ... -favorite/

Micheal Lee was wrong.

hands11 · Post #940 » by **hands11** » Mon Apr 27, 2015 2:58 am

nuposse04 Sat Apr 18, 2015 wrote:
hands11 wrote:
nuposse04 wrote:
This may have some validity in bizarro world.

Gooden is experienced vet yes, but was garbage in the playoffs last season, I expect more of the same. Nene will break down. Out of everyone you mentioned, you didn't even say Gortat...who is probably are most consistent player.

We only 3 young players worth a damn. And only Wall is someone you could call Very Good/Great.

How is it possible to have your head shoved that far up ones own rectum? It boggles my mind.

Maybe you can tell us.

Post some data.. not just your negative fluff.

Or you could do some damn googling of playoff performances compared to regular season from Nene, Gooden, webster and butler last year yourself.

But i'll save your laziness for a bit. Lets examine some trends that occurred last season, mainly play in the regular season to the post season.

Drew Gooden: in the RS gooden posted 17-10 per36 on 59%TS and a WS/48 of .173. Awesome. In the postseason He posted 8-10 per 36 on 41%TS and a .097 WS/48. per also dipped down to 9.5 from 18.4 in the playoffs. Gooden's RS numbers are down across the board this season. Absolutely no reason to believe he'll perform well in the playoffs. If he does...great...but anyone actually being optimistic in that he'll serve useful utility consistently... probably is in for some sadness.

Nene: Last season in the RS posted: 17-7 per36 on 53% TS, WS/48 .098 and a per of 16.6. In the playoffs he averaged 15-6 per36, on 46%TS, per of 12.2 and a WS/48 of 0.048. So again, a guy whose vet experience counts for **** in the playoffs apparently.

BUT WAIT THERE IS MORE

Webster averaged in the RS: 13-4 per 36, on 59%TS, per of 11. WS/48 .112. Last season in the post season: 8-5 per36 on a TS of 47% and a WS/.077. Across the board, Webster is a an awful player this season, I expect even worse should he get any playoff minutes.

The last, and only time Ramon sessions was in the playoffs (in '11-12) he posted 11-3-4 per36, on a TS of 45%, per of 8, and a WS/48 of -.027. Ramon has played well for us, but his playoff experience is not a pedigree i'd rely on.

THE only guy among our vets who has improved his RS numbers from last season with us that had a stellar playoffs is friggin Temple. Who played 9 minutes in the playoffs -__________-

So yah, i'm not spouting nonsense. I've seen the numbers before. I recall the disparities between the playoff and regular season performances. And frankly, outside of Wall, beal, Porter, gortat and perhaps pierce...i don't see how anyone in their right mind could compare us to the Spurs, or how anyone could accuse me of spewing negative fluff. Don't be on Milellies' level Hands, not a good look.

With all this reality to soak in, there is reason I expect more futility in these playoffs...I wouldn't mind a 2nd round appearance if it meant more for Wall/Beal and Porter's development. I want for us to be a contender, and to matter in the playoffs, but i'm not going to sit here and lie to myself. Us making a big run would be more due to the gods of probability erring in our favor than reasonable expectations given past performance.

Then there is the whole randy thing, which doesn't really help either (although his admission to wanting to use Pierce at the 4 [what took him so damn long] more is a good sign).

Gooden was 7-14 from 3

Averaged 6.8 rebounds in 20 mins. and 1.3 blocks.