Predicting the Eastern Conference Rankings: 2015-2016 Edition

[fishercob]

Charlotte's new-look team will be the surpise team of the East.

Charlotte is going to suck. They still can't shoot and now with MKG out, they won't defend very well either.

Basically, it's the same 33-win team as last year, only with Batum replacing MKG (a downgrade) and Lin and Lamb replacing Gary Neal and Lance Stevenson (a wash). Up front, they lose Biyombo; Jefferson gets a year older, and they add nobody of consequence. Kaminsky may pan out to be a decent pro, but rookie bigs never help much.

When you look at bottom half of the East and see a bunch of improving teams like Boston, Milwaukee, Detroit, New York, and Miami, you have to conclude that those extra wins have to come from somewhere. I think they're coming from Charlotte (and Atlanta, Brooklyn, Toronto and Philly).

If Miami maintains reasonable health, I think they'll be towards the top of the East.

[nate33]

Boston will be sneaky good. Deep in skilled bigs, defensively strong on the perimeter, good coach, high effort high energy smart team players. No supertalents but they will exhaust you with waves of fresh players who know how to play, no drop off in talent.

Toronto lost General Greivis and Amir Johnson, but upgraded their starters adding Demarre Carroll, and JoVal is still improving. They'll be good again.

Boston could be a rock solid regular season team because of their depth and good coaching. They don't have any above-average players though. I think they did it with smoke and mirrors last year and they'll have to do it again this year. Maybe they add a couple of extra wins from 40 up to 43 or so, but I just can't envision any more success than that. The talent just isn't there.

I think Toronto overachieved last year thanks to Kyle Lowry temporarily channeling Chris Paul for 2 months. Lowry was legitimately an MVP candidate for a while - averaging 21, 9 and 5 with an ORtg of 120. Once he came back down to Earth by the end of December, the team fell apart. They finished the last 4 months of the season with a sub-500 record and got swept in the playoffs. They won just 24 of their last 54 games played. I think the addition of Carroll helps them, but I don't really think of their baseline as a 49-win team. I think their baseline is more like a 44-win team, so maybe Carroll gets them to 46-47 wins or so.

[nate33]

Charlotte's new-look team will be the surpise team of the East.

Charlotte is going to suck. They still can't shoot and now with MKG out, they won't defend very well either.

Basically, it's the same 33-win team as last year, only with Batum replacing MKG (a downgrade) and Lin and Lamb replacing Gary Neal and Lance Stevenson (a wash). Up front, they lose Biyombo; Jefferson gets a year older, and they add nobody of consequence. Kaminsky may pan out to be a decent pro, but rookie bigs never help much.

When you look at bottom half of the East and see a bunch of improving teams like Boston, Milwaukee, Detroit, New York, and Miami, you have to conclude that those extra wins have to come from somewhere. I think they're coming from Charlotte (and Atlanta, Brooklyn, Toronto and Philly).

If Miami maintains reasonable health, I think they'll be towards the top of the East.

That's a big if though. But, yes, with health, Miami should be real good.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Charlotte's new-look team will be the surpise team of the East.

Charlotte is going to suck. They still can't shoot and now with MKG out, they won't defend very well either.

Basically, it's the same 33-win team as last year, only with Batum replacing MKG (a downgrade) and Lin and Lamb replacing Gary Neal and Lance Stevenson (a wash). Up front, they lose Biyombo; Jefferson gets a year older, and they add nobody of consequence. Kaminsky may pan out to be a decent pro, but rookie bigs never help much.

When you look at bottom half of the East and see a bunch of improving teams like Boston, Milwaukee, Detroit, New York, and Miami, you have to conclude that those extra wins have to come from somewhere. I think they're coming from Charlotte (and Atlanta, Brooklyn, Toronto and Philly).

No. Jefferson lost weight and they added terrific passers and team players. Lin will have his best offensive production. Batum will be more selfish and better.

Charlotte not only won't suck, they're going to push the Wizards for which has a better record.

[closg00]

Charlotte's new-look team will be the surpise team of the East.

Charlotte is going to suck. They still can't shoot and now with MKG out, they won't defend very well either.

Basically, it's the same 33-win team as last year, only with Batum replacing MKG (a downgrade) and Lin and Lamb replacing Gary Neal and Lance Stevenson (a wash). Up front, they lose Biyombo; Jefferson gets a year older, and they add nobody of consequence. Kaminsky may pan out to be a decent pro, but rookie bigs never help much.

When you look at bottom half of the East and see a bunch of improving teams like Boston, Milwaukee, Detroit, New York, and Miami, you have to conclude that those extra wins have to come from somewhere. I think they're coming from Charlotte (and Atlanta, Brooklyn, Toronto and Philly).

No. Jefferson lost weight and they added terrific passers and team players. Lin will have his best offensive production. Batum will be more selfish and better.

Charlotte not only won't suck, they're going to push the Wizards for which has a better record.

I agree, Brian Roberts, Lin, Batum & Lamb are going to make this team competative in the East. Having MKG out (who can't shoot) is going to be unexpected benefit to the team.

[doclinkin]

Boston will be sneaky good. Deep in skilled bigs, defensively strong on the perimeter, good coach, high effort high energy smart team players. No supertalents but they will exhaust you with waves of fresh players who know how to play, no drop off in talent.

Toronto lost General Greivis and Amir Johnson, but upgraded their starters adding Demarre Carroll, and JoVal is still improving. They'll be good again.

Boston could be a rock solid regular season team because of their depth and good coaching. They don't have any above-average players though. I think they did it with smoke and mirrors last year and they'll have to do it again this year. Maybe they add a couple of extra wins from 40 up to 43 or so, but I just can't envision any more success than that. The talent just isn't there.

I think Toronto overachieved last year thanks to Kyle Lowry temporarily channeling Chris Paul for 2 months. Lowry was legitimately an MVP candidate for a while - averaging 21, 9 and 5 with an ORtg of 120. Once he came back down to Earth by the end of December, the team fell apart. They finished the last 4 months of the season with a sub-500 record and got swept in the playoffs. They won just 24 of their last 54 games played. I think the addition of Carroll helps them, but I don't really think of their baseline as a 49-win team. I think their baseline is more like a 44-win team, so maybe Carroll gets them to 46-47 wins or so.

Boston has great perimeter defenders, better than 'above average' on at least that one side of the court. Avery Bradley is a rare game-changing outside defender, and Jae Crowder is that versatile three-position defender that you need in any mismatch or switch. Strong enough to guard stretch 4's even. Marcus Smart is coming along but in that mold. The team doesn't foul, moves the ball, deals assists, does not turn the ball over, and is deep enough to weather injuries. The only area where they are average at best is in scoring.

That's key, that's true, they do need that one killer go-to scorer before they are really dangerous, but they will be an interesting counter to the current metagame (pace and space, outside shooting, de-emphasized interior scoring, etc). Since dominant interior Bigs are de-emphasized, there is room for a counter-meta team to play smaller skilled Bigs who are competent one-on-one low-post threats, while starving the exterior of points by application of versatile nasty mobile defenders who are strong enough to defend even if they have to switch.

The rest is just coaching, can you pass to get your interior scorer a chance to do what he does well? Olynyk, David Lee, Sullinger, Zeller all are active skilled low-block scorers who can get their points in the interior. Olynyk has a bit of a face-up game, reports suggest Sully has added a three and lost weight. Add in Amir Johnson as that solid back-up off the bench who defends and rebounds and is an overall efficient player-- and the babyfaced coach has almost too many options. Or Ainge has trade bait. The lack of any particular hero-ball scorer is a strength for that squad, they have low-ego high effort smart high energy players deep at every position. It's a curious model, can depth and a superior team effort beat superior talent over the course of a season?

I'm just interested to see how it turns out and they will be a pain to play for many teams. I won't be surprised when they go on a run and pundits seem flabbergasted.

[Sluggerface]

Charlotte's new-look team will be the surpise team of the East.

Charlotte is going to suck. They still can't shoot and now with MKG out, they won't defend very well either.

Basically, it's the same 33-win team as last year, only with Batum replacing MKG (a downgrade) and Lin and Lamb replacing Gary Neal and Lance Stevenson (a wash). Up front, they lose Biyombo; Jefferson gets a year older, and they add nobody of consequence. Kaminsky may pan out to be a decent pro, but rookie bigs never help much.

When you look at bottom half of the East and see a bunch of improving teams like Boston, Milwaukee, Detroit, New York, and Miami, you have to conclude that those extra wins have to come from somewhere. I think they're coming from Charlotte (and Atlanta, Brooklyn, Toronto and Philly).

Lin and Lamb are massive upgrades over what Charlotte was dealing with in Neal/Lance. That's not even remotely a wash.

[nate33]

Boston has great perimeter defenders, better than 'above average' on at least that one side of the court. Avery Bradley is a rare game-changing outside defender, and Jae Crowder is that versatile three-position defender that you need in any mismatch or switch. Strong enough to guard stretch 4's even. Marcus Smart is coming along but in that mold. The team doesn't foul, moves the ball, deals assists, does not turn the ball over, and is deep enough to weather injuries. The only area where they are average at best is in scoring.

That's key, that's true, they do need that one killer go-to scorer before they are really dangerous, but they will be an interesting counter to the current metagame (pace and space, outside shooting, de-emphasized interior scoring, etc). Since dominant interior Bigs are de-emphasized, there is room for a counter-meta team to play smaller skilled Bigs who are competent one-on-one low-post threats, while starving the exterior of points by application of versatile nasty mobile defenders who are strong enough to defend even if they have to switch.

The rest is just coaching, can you pass to get your interior scorer a chance to do what he does well? Olynyk, David Lee, Sullinger, Zeller all are active skilled low-block scorers who can get their points in the interior. Olynyk has a bit of a face-up game, reports suggest Sully has added a three and lost weight. Add in Amir Johnson as that solid back-up off the bench who defends and rebounds and is an overall efficient player-- and the babyfaced coach has almost too many options. Or Ainge has trade bait. The lack of any particular hero-ball scorer is a strength for that squad, they have low-ego high effort smart high energy players deep at every position. It's a curious model, can depth and a superior team effort beat superior talent over the course of a season?

I'm just interested to see how it turns out and they will be a pain to play for many teams. I won't be surprised when they go on a run and pundits seem flabbergasted.

It will definitely be interesting to watch, doc. I agree that the team is intriguing. In a long regular season grind, their model might be very successful. I don't think they're built for playoff success though. When coaches have the time to figure out their system and force them into talent-versus-talent matchups, they're going to lose.

[nate33]

Charlotte's new-look team will be the surpise team of the East.

Charlotte is going to suck. They still can't shoot and now with MKG out, they won't defend very well either.

Basically, it's the same 33-win team as last year, only with Batum replacing MKG (a downgrade) and Lin and Lamb replacing Gary Neal and Lance Stevenson (a wash). Up front, they lose Biyombo; Jefferson gets a year older, and they add nobody of consequence. Kaminsky may pan out to be a decent pro, but rookie bigs never help much.

When you look at bottom half of the East and see a bunch of improving teams like Boston, Milwaukee, Detroit, New York, and Miami, you have to conclude that those extra wins have to come from somewhere. I think they're coming from Charlotte (and Atlanta, Brooklyn, Toronto and Philly).

Lin and Lamb are massive upgrades over what Charlotte was dealing with in Neal/Lance. That's not even remotely a wash.

Lamb couldn't steal more than 650 minutes on an OKC team that was desperate for help at the SG spot. Lin was sensational in that run with New York, but he's been pretty ordinary ever since. His turnover rate is awful.

The floor spacing should be improved with Lamb and Batum replacing Henderson and MKG but I don't see any above-average defenders on the roster except maybe Zeller. Charlotte has somehow managed to play stout defense for the past two seasons with mediocre defensive personnel by leveraging MKG and Biyombo to cover for everyone else's weaknesses. I think the absence of those two guys is going to be real noticeable this year and the defense is going to fall apart.

[fishercob]

Charlotte's new-look team will be the surpise team of the East.

They were 6-21 without MKG last year. I will indeed be surprised if they are half decent.

[doclinkin]

Boston has great perimeter defenders, better than 'above average' on at least that one side of the court. Avery Bradley is a rare game-changing outside defender, and Jae Crowder is that versatile three-position defender that you need in any mismatch or switch. Strong enough to guard stretch 4's even. Marcus Smart is coming along but in that mold. The team doesn't foul, moves the ball, deals assists, does not turn the ball over, and is deep enough to weather injuries. The only area where they are average at best is in scoring.

That's key, that's true, they do need that one killer go-to scorer before they are really dangerous, but they will be an interesting counter to the current metagame (pace and space, outside shooting, de-emphasized interior scoring, etc). Since dominant interior Bigs are de-emphasized, there is room for a counter-meta team to play smaller skilled Bigs who are competent one-on-one low-post threats, while starving the exterior of points by application of versatile nasty mobile defenders who are strong enough to defend even if they have to switch.

The rest is just coaching, can you pass to get your interior scorer a chance to do what he does well? Olynyk, David Lee, Sullinger, Zeller all are active skilled low-block scorers who can get their points in the interior. Olynyk has a bit of a face-up game, reports suggest Sully has added a three and lost weight. Add in Amir Johnson as that solid back-up off the bench who defends and rebounds and is an overall efficient player-- and the babyfaced coach has almost too many options. Or Ainge has trade bait. The lack of any particular hero-ball scorer is a strength for that squad, they have low-ego high effort smart high energy players deep at every position. It's a curious model, can depth and a superior team effort beat superior talent over the course of a season?

I'm just interested to see how it turns out and they will be a pain to play for many teams. I won't be surprised when they go on a run and pundits seem flabbergasted.

It will definitely be interesting to watch, doc. I agree that the team is intriguing. In a long regular season grind, their model might be very successful. I don't think they're built for playoff success though. When coaches have the time to figure out their system and force them into talent-versus-talent matchups, they're going to lose.

I think in the post season the real issue will be that opposing starters don't have to rest as much. This team is deep in active hustlef*ck 4/5's, and I suspect they'll try to attack on the interior as much as they can all game long. Other teams will see leads evaporate when starters are out, while team green is constantly fresh with the renewable platoon of high energy Bigs.

In the post season that doesn't matter. Superstars get all the rest they need, play 40+.

[bsilver]

Boston has great perimeter defenders, better than 'above average' on at least that one side of the court. Avery Bradley is a rare game-changing outside defender, and Jae Crowder is that versatile three-position defender that you need in any mismatch or switch. Strong enough to guard stretch 4's even. Marcus Smart is coming along but in that mold. The team doesn't foul, moves the ball, deals assists, does not turn the ball over, and is deep enough to weather injuries. The only area where they are average at best is in scoring.

That's key, that's true, they do need that one killer go-to scorer before they are really dangerous, but they will be an interesting counter to the current metagame (pace and space, outside shooting, de-emphasized interior scoring, etc). Since dominant interior Bigs are de-emphasized, there is room for a counter-meta team to play smaller skilled Bigs who are competent one-on-one low-post threats, while starving the exterior of points by application of versatile nasty mobile defenders who are strong enough to defend even if they have to switch.

The rest is just coaching, can you pass to get your interior scorer a chance to do what he does well? Olynyk, David Lee, Sullinger, Zeller all are active skilled low-block scorers who can get their points in the interior. Olynyk has a bit of a face-up game, reports suggest Sully has added a three and lost weight. Add in Amir Johnson as that solid back-up off the bench who defends and rebounds and is an overall efficient player-- and the babyfaced coach has almost too many options. Or Ainge has trade bait. The lack of any particular hero-ball scorer is a strength for that squad, they have low-ego high effort smart high energy players deep at every position. It's a curious model, can depth and a superior team effort beat superior talent over the course of a season?

I'm just interested to see how it turns out and they will be a pain to play for many teams. I won't be surprised when they go on a run and pundits seem flabbergasted.

It will definitely be interesting to watch, doc. I agree that the team is intriguing. In a long regular season grind, their model might be very successful. I don't think they're built for playoff success though. When coaches have the time to figure out their system and force them into talent-versus-talent matchups, they're going to lose.

I think in the post season the real issue will be that opposing starters don't have to rest as much. This team is deep in active hustlef*ck 4/5's, and I suspect they'll try to attack on the interior as much as they can all game long. Other teams will see leads evaporate when starters are out, while team green is constantly fresh with the renewable platoon of high energy Bigs.

In the post season that doesn't matter. Superstars get all the rest they need, play 40+.

At the risk of me-tooism, I'll have to say Boston is the Atlanta of 2015. They were 23-14 the last 3 months of the season, and are only getting better with experience. Milwaukee has scary potential and good coaching which will make them the other surprise team.

After Cleveland, the next 8 teams are closely bunched. They're pretty good, but flawed. Wouldn't be surprised if these 8 are bunched together, all getting between 41 and 50 wins. The team that falls out of the playoffs will be the one most affected by injuries.

1) Cleveland
2) Atlanta - Loss of Carrol hurts, but brought in some talent. Good coaching will still bring in the wins.
3) Boston - Success in regular season may not be duplicated in playoffs without a goto scorer.
4) Milwaukee - Arrival of Monroe, and another year of maturity will make a big difference, but still a year or so away from reaching potential.
5) Wizards - Running a stretch 4 offense but no proven stretch 4. Early injuries to wing reserves will keep Wiz from fast start.
6) Toronto - Carroll will help but losing Vasquez and Amir Johnson will be felt.
7) Chicago - Unfortunately can't play 5 PFs. Not enough balance.
8) Indiana - Return of George get Pacers in the playoffs. With arrival of Ellis, now have needed firepower. Too much disarray in front court. Loss of West a big blow. Turner a year or so away from handling the C spot.
9) Miami - Hate to make a prediction based on injury, but Wade's creaky knees aren't getting younger.

Lurking) Detroit - They may be able to make it work without Monroe. Have to wait and see.

Improving) Knicks and Orlando
Declining) Brooklyn, Charlotte
No change) Philly

[No-Man]

My bet as of today,

Tier 1: the title contender

Cleveland Cavaliers; they will likely start slow with the injuries, but I expect them to have a strong 2nd half and claim the top spot.

Tier 2: the solid pretenders

Atlanta Hawks; solid reliable, system team, the lost of Carroll is big, but Splitter adds another dimension and Schröeder growth should give them a lot of bench production, Horford is in a contract year.
Washington Wizards; I expect an All Star season from Beal, Wall contending for 2nd best player in the conference, and the new pieces fitting right in, Dudley should have Pierce role as the back-up small ball PF and Porter grow into a caliber starting SF.
Toronto Raptors; slim Lowry is a beast, the team got better defensive pieces and is deep, they need a re-bound year from DeRozan and a more involved Jonas.
Chicago Bulls; doubts all over the place with the rotation, Rose health, and Hoiberg system, I expect them to start slow and be much more dangerous in the PO than in the RS.

Tier 3: the likely PO teams

Boston Celtics; not really a star but a deep talented well-coached team, the new pieces are perfect for the coach and the young players should improve, could finish higher if other teams are depleted with injuries.
Miami Heat; talented but old, not near enough spacing and defense, Dragic is going to struggle to play his game, Wade will coast through half the season, is Whiteside for real?
Milwaukee Bucks; long, versatile and well-coached, pretty nightmarish defensively on the perimeter, not so much inside, PG is suspect, shooting is too, they are young and they need to fit new pieces, Giannis growth could bolster their season.

Tier 4: the fall short teams

Indiana Pacers; George is back and seems to be playing at a high level, will GHill play good at a high pace? the interior rotation is lackluster, thin roster, pretty good coach, they need someone to step up.
Detroit Pistons; too young, the responsability is in two unexperienced guys, Drummond is not an alpha and Jackson is a TO machine, they have talent and a great coach with a good system, and solid role players, they need more proven depth and another year under the belt of their young guys.
New York Knicks; depth is suspicious, especially in the backcourt, the bigs are solid role players, they need Carmelo to be at his best and a good year from Afflalo, the young guys will have to play, Lopez is going to help big time.

Tier 5: the bottom of the conference

Orlando Magic; the coaching will probably improve, they still face shooting issues, depth issues, interior defense issues, their whole rotation is made of young guys, and their vets are dubs, unless Frye looks like he did in Phoenix.
Charlotte Hornets; the MKG is devastating, they have some pieces and talent, but I expect them to struggle, Big Al is in a contract year but his playing style doesnt fit his teammates, they will try to win, but there is just not enough.
Brooklyn Nets; they are on injury away from struggling to score 90ppg, Jack is a cancer as a back-up, and he is their full-time starter, JJohnson is washed-up and their bench is unproven, Lopez needs to play like an MVP for them to win +30 games.
Philadelphia 76ers; they will likely not end up dead last, but they are clearly the worst roster, Okafor is the ROY favourite and Noel is going to continue improving, although I expect a hard transition to PF offensively, the injuries at the PG dont help, I am curious about Stauskas and Grant.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Boston will be sneaky good. Deep in skilled bigs, defensively strong on the perimeter, good coach, high effort high energy smart team players. No supertalents but they will exhaust you with waves of fresh players who know how to play, no drop off in talent.

Toronto lost General Greivis and Amir Johnson, but upgraded their starters adding Demarre Carroll, and JoVal is still improving. They'll be good again.

Boston could be a rock solid regular season team because of their depth and good coaching. They don't have any above-average players though. I think they did it with smoke and mirrors last year and they'll have to do it again this year. Maybe they add a couple of extra wins from 40 up to 43 or so, but I just can't envision any more success than that. The talent just isn't there.

I think Toronto overachieved last year thanks to Kyle Lowry temporarily channeling Chris Paul for 2 months. Lowry was legitimately an MVP candidate for a while - averaging 21, 9 and 5 with an ORtg of 120. Once he came back down to Earth by the end of December, the team fell apart. They finished the last 4 months of the season with a sub-500 record and got swept in the playoffs. They won just 24 of their last 54 games played. I think the addition of Carroll helps them, but I don't really think of their baseline as a 49-win team. I think their baseline is more like a 44-win team, so maybe Carroll gets them to 46-47 wins or so.

Boston has great perimeter defenders, better than 'above average' on at least that one side of the court. Avery Bradley is a rare game-changing outside defender, and Jae Crowder is that versatile three-position defender that you need in any mismatch or switch. Strong enough to guard stretch 4's even. Marcus Smart is coming along but in that mold. The team doesn't foul, moves the ball, deals assists, does not turn the ball over, and is deep enough to weather injuries. The only area where they are average at best is in scoring.

That's key, that's true, they do need that one killer go-to scorer before they are really dangerous, but they will be an interesting counter to the current metagame (pace and space, outside shooting, de-emphasized interior scoring, etc). Since dominant interior Bigs are de-emphasized, there is room for a counter-meta team to play smaller skilled Bigs who are competent one-on-one low-post threats, while starving the exterior of points by application of versatile nasty mobile defenders who are strong enough to defend even if they have to switch.

The rest is just coaching, can you pass to get your interior scorer a chance to do what he does well? Olynyk, David Lee, Sullinger, Zeller all are active skilled low-block scorers who can get their points in the interior. Olynyk has a bit of a face-up game, reports suggest Sully has added a three and lost weight. Add in Amir Johnson as that solid back-up off the bench who defends and rebounds and is an overall efficient player-- and the babyfaced coach has almost too many options. Or Ainge has trade bait. The lack of any particular hero-ball scorer is a strength for that squad, they have low-ego high effort smart high energy players deep at every position. It's a curious model, can depth and a superior team effort beat superior talent over the course of a season?

I'm just interested to see how it turns out and they will be a pain to play for many teams. I won't be surprised when they go on a run and pundits seem flabbergasted.

It will not shock me if Boston finishes with a higher playoff seed and advances beyond Washington in the playoffs.

[dobrojim]

I won't say it would shock me but I do think it would be a pretty big surprise if Boston did better
than us this year. Could happen, but I doubt it. They don't have 2 players as good as Wall and Tat.
1-8, I think we're generally better.

I'd think at worst, we finish same as last year, 5th; With potential to move up to 2nd or 3rd.
Heck, we're using a modern day NBA offense I hear. One that worked quite well during the playoffs
last year.

I think OP will give BB a run for best 22yo Wizard this year.

edit to add - ? for Kevin
in predicting EC or WC for that matter standings, how accurate would it be to simply take the sum of
weighted by playing time PPAs of the team roster. Then sort by score high to low for each team.
For instance, what would that look like now?

[theboomking]

I like us to finish between 2nd and 5th. If Porter and Beal both play as well as they did in the playoffs and have so far in the preseason, I like us to finish no worse than 3rd.

Cleveland should be first in the conference, but honestly, they have a lot of health questions. Love and Irving have both been frequently injured. Varejao is injured every year. Lebron is out for the preseason after just having had an injection in his back. Things could fall apart for them in the playoffs if they are not healthy at the end of the year.

[bsilver]

I picked Boston high, and Miami low, not necessarily believing it, but trying to forecast the biggest surprises. There's always some. Low year in the EC it was Atlanta and the Knicks. Who will have the biggest surprise improvement, and who will be the surprise stinker?

[stevemcqueen1]

We're going to be the one or two seed. We'll win 53 or 54 games and that will be enough. The East is still weak.

- Cleveland is obviously the best team in the East on paper, but they're ravaged by injuries and Thompson's holdout is a distraction. They've been awful in the preseason and they're going to be a slow starter that treads water until their players start getting healthy again and they get to full strength in the second half of the season. It'll be enough to seriously dampen their chances at the one seed, but they'll probably make the Finals again. If they were healthy, they'd probably win 60 games pretty easily.

- Atlanta will still be good, but they overachieved during the regular season last year, and losing Carroll is a blow. Their win total should naturally dip, but they'll still win at least 50. They should be no worse than the second or third seed unless Horford and/or Millsap go down, with a smaller chance of being the one seed again. But I think it was pretty clear a healthy Wall means the Wizards win that playoff series. Comfortably.

- Wizards have underachieved in the past three regular seasons, but with Cleveland so banged up, they have an open path to the one seed. Whether they can manage to do it comes down to a couple things:

1 - mastering the offense quickly
2 - remaining healthy
3 - avoiding another AS break slump

I think the team is going to start fast, like last season, and rip off a great record that positions them as the one or two seed. Something that puts them on pace for a 58-60 win season. Then I think they'll swoon a little bit as they struggle to maintain some of their intensity. Then I think they'll recover and finish up with about 54 wins. Look like one of the powers in the East, but inhabiting a decidedly lower tier than the first tier powers in the West.

- Miami is overhyped as **** right now. But even still, they should be a midseed. There is no point in scheming for the "if they stay healthy" caveat because it simply won't happen. Wade is reaching the end of his career and the health of Bosh and Deng is almost as tenuous at this point. But the conference isn't that good, so they should finish with mid to upper 40s wins and be a 4 or 5 seed.

- I think Toronto is on the verge of collapse. Lowry and Casey had a truly damaging postseason, and their GM has his finger on the button of blowing it up. It's a bad vibe in Toronto this year. If someone important gets injured, I could see them spiraling and entering a rebuild. But if they stay healthy, I could see them eking out a midseed just because their division **** sucks and could offer up 14-16 soft wins.

- Chicago is solid but I see them taking a step back post Thibs. Their division is brutal too. And I think they're headed for meaningful decline from Noah and Gasol, it already happened with Gibson, and I don't see Rose being much of a factor. They're in a transition period, whether they realize it or not. But I could still see a mid seed finish because they do have that pedigree in players, and they've overachieved for the past several seasons in a row.

- Don't know what to make of Indy. George could lead them to a four seed, or they could stay bad. They've had so much turnover on the roster in the past 16 months that it's hard to project them. They should be better than last year though. George should be enough to accomplish that.

- Detroit is better. A fringe playoff team, they should be competitive. But I'm not sure I see a path into the playoffs for them unless Miami is awful, Indy doesn't get a bump from George, or Milwaukee or Boston take a step back. I do think they'll fight for the seventh or eighth seed until the end of the year though.

- I think Milwaukee stays about where they were last year. They're improving, and getting Jabari Parker back should be a boost. But they're still a low seed. They're not going to be better than Atlanta, Washington, Chicago, the winner of the Atlantic most likely. I don't think they'll take a step back. Their foundation in talent is good, but too young to take a step forward and threaten any of the first or second tier teams.

- I think the Knicks could possibly win the Atlantic. Not as strong an endorsement as it sounds, since I think the winner of the Atlantic could probably do so with 42 wins. Carmelo is healthy and he's the third best player in the conference after LeBron and Wall. They've sorted out their locker room. They have a lot of shooters and added role players that are solid. And they have the biggest front line in the NBA, by far. And the rest of their division is a **** disaster. Again, I could see Toronto collapsing and creating a vacuum. Somebody has to win this division.

- Boston overachieved last season. Big time. I agree with Nate that they don't have any above average players, and we're reaching if we're pointing to Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley as the leaders of that team, the reason they'll be good. They're deep in solid players, any perhaps that's enough to eke out a slightly above .500 record in a trash division. I think the improvement of the teams in the Central division might hurt them though. But if New York still sucks and Toronto collapses, then they'll win the Atlantic by default.

I think there is a very real chance that the Atlantic sends one team to the postseason, and that they have the seventh or eight best record in the conference.

- Orlando, Charlotte, Brooklyn, and Philly are all going to suck. In that group, Philly is the only one that's built a high quality foundation for future success IMO.

My specific predictions:

1.) Cleveland - 55 wins
2.) Washington - 54 wins
3.) Atlanta - 53 wins
4.) Chicago - 48 wins
5.) Miami - 47 wins
6.) Milwaukee - 44 wins
7.) Indiana - 42 wins
8.) New York - 42 wins

[Dat2U]

How I view the East.

1. Cleveland 56 wins --- they would push for 70 if they could stay healthy but that's not possible with the fragility of Irving/Love.

2. Chicago 52 wins --- no longer playing Noah/Gasol together is smart. So is starting Mirotic. They'll be much tougher spacing the floor and there's no longer the issue of Gasol/Noah getting in each other's way. Gasol may have a big year with better spacing.

3. Atlanta 51 wins --- they'll slip a notch b/c they simply played over their heads last year. Still a very solid team. No one readily available to take Carroll's minutes. Hoping on development from Schroder, Bazemore, Hardaway or Justin Holiday to pick up that slack. Splitter was a nice acquisition.

4. Washington 48 wins --- improved offense will lead to breakouts for their young perimeter talent.

5. Boston 47 wins --- Underrated talent. Loaded front court. No stars but a very deep team. Marcus Smart will continue to improve. Isaiah Thomas is a stud in a 6th man role. Amir Johnson was a nice pickup.

6. Raptors 45 wins --- Carroll is a huge upgrade over Ross, but losing Amir Johnson & Lou Williams (both were very productive and impactful in their roles) will hurt. Valanciunas has been a relative disappointment to his pre & post draft hype. He needs to step up in order for Toronto to repeat last year's regular season success. DeMar DeRozan is one of the most overrated players in the game.

7. Indiana 42 wins --- George Hill is criminally underrated. A healthy Paul George & Monta Ellis offer plenty of perimeter scoring. Questions remain upfront with Hibbert & West out the door. Myles Turner shows immense promise though. Indy is loaded with passable backup bigs while waiting on Turner.

8. Miami 41 wins --- color me not impressed. What could change this prediction is if Whiteside begins to impact the game the way he impacts the stat column. But the Heat can't rely on Wade anymore. His days as a leading star are done. He's a complimentary piece... like 24-30 minutes a night over 60 games....and he can't defend anyone anymore. Wade is more of a hindrance than a help in Miami's playoff pursuit. Bosh is another one I have huge questions about. Can he bring it at a high level every night? I also have questions about Dragic in a non-P&R centric offense. If he's not running his bread & butter, how effect will he really be?

9. Milwaukee 40 wins --- Monroe will be a stud and candidate to most improved. Jabari will be a dud. Jabari may actually put up decent counting stats but I have no idea who he defends or how he consistently gets his points efficiently. He teases with his skill set but I'm not sure he truly does anything well enough to excel right now. Middleton is rock solid and Antetokounmpo will likely make huge strides (I expect Milwaukee to be incredibly tough on the perimeter defensively) but I fail to see Jabari & MCW as core pieces that are ready right now to help a team in a playoff run. Check back in a year or two.

10. Detroit 35 wins --- This is the year Drummond becomes the man. Too bad his GM/Coach didn't give him much help. Reggie Jackson is simply okay. KCP is a growing player. Stanley Johnson will be decent in time but they are weak overall at positions 2-4.

11. Charlotte 32 wins --- A well coached under-talented team. Losing MKG killed any realistic playoff aspirations. Trading for Batum numbs the loss but depth is a major issue. No legit 2-guard to speak of, Jeremy Lamb cannot be relied on. Neither can P.J. Hairston. They'll be formidable and a tough out on a daily basis with a healthy Al Jeff, Zeller and Kaminsky upfront. Their bench depth is terrible.

12. Orlando 29 wins ... Not a Tobias Harris fan, I think that was a terrible contract. Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic would both have to take a major leap IMO in order for the Magic to really rise in the standings. Payton is an up-and-comer. Not complete sold on any of their other young talent.

13. Brooklyn 27 wins --- The Nets have 3 legit NBA players (Young, Lopez & Johnson) and a bunch of has been's and never were's. That should be good enough to beat the Knicks, 76ers, Lakers and hardly anyone one else.

14. New York 25 wins --- Whoever is saying playoffs, just quit, please. That's plain nonsense. Adding Robin Lopez as your best player to a 20 win team doesn't get them to playoff level. You got Jose Calderon & Arron Afflalo doing their best impersonation of a starting backcourt. Afflalo hasn't played defense in years. Calderon never did. Carmelo can't defend 3s. Derrick Williams can't defend 4s. Starting to get the picture? No matter how good Porzingis & Grant may be the Knicks are years away. They may trade Melo by the trade deadline in which case the win total may be lower.

15. Philadelphia 20 wins --- another high draft pick will be on the way. They'll be competent on certain nights when Marshall is healthy and dropping dimes to Okafor & Noel with Covington, Grant & Stauskas providing just enough spacing.

[dobrojim]

BTW - what happened to MKG? injury?