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Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil)

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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#281 » by AFM » Mon Feb 8, 2016 6:31 pm

Okay, back on planet earth...
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#282 » by Ruzious » Mon Feb 8, 2016 6:47 pm

LyricalRico wrote:
jayscott wrote:
LyricalRico wrote:
More like he'll be back in time to soak up minutes from Neal/Temple, give the bench a boost, and be part of the late season run.

:nod:

The first half of this reply is correct. He will soak up minutes from Neal and Temple. Ain't no late season run happening though. He is not a dynamo type player, which is what this team needs to get over the hump. Its not like how we were missing Arenas in the past. Anderson doesn't make that much of a difference.


He certainly won't put up huge numbers. But he'll be better defensively than Neal, and he's a better shooter than Temple. He's also a little bigger, which will help their small-ball lineups.

A couple more stops here, a couple more 3's there, over the last 31 games could mean a few more wins. Even something modest like 18-13 instead of 16-15 would be a huge difference in a crowded East. A game or two more and suddenly they are over .500 and one of the hotter teams going into the post-season.

Even going 18-13 probably won't get us in the playoffs. That would get us to .500, and there are currently 8 teams over .500 and a few more that are closer to .500 than we are. And the Wiz going as well as 18-13 just isn't likely without acquiring a PF.
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#283 » by dckingsfan » Mon Feb 8, 2016 7:04 pm

LyricalRico wrote:
jayscott wrote:
LyricalRico wrote:
More like he'll be back in time to soak up minutes from Neal/Temple, give the bench a boost, and be part of the late season run.

:nod:

The first half of this reply is correct. He will soak up minutes from Neal and Temple. Ain't no late season run happening though. He is not a dynamo type player, which is what this team needs to get over the hump. Its not like how we were missing Arenas in the past. Anderson doesn't make that much of a difference.


He certainly won't put up huge numbers. But he'll be better defensively than Neal, and he's a better shooter than Temple. He's also a little bigger, which will help their small-ball lineups.

A couple more stops here, a couple more 3's there, over the last 31 games could mean a few more wins. Even something modest like 18-13 instead of 16-15 would be a huge difference in a crowded East. A game or two more and suddenly they are over .500 and one of the hotter teams going into the post-season.


If we got everyone back - do you think we will post a .600 record or better? That is what we will need to grab the last playoff slot.
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#284 » by nate33 » Mon Feb 8, 2016 7:17 pm

Ruzious wrote:
LyricalRico wrote:
jayscott wrote:The first half of this reply is correct. He will soak up minutes from Neal and Temple. Ain't no late season run happening though. He is not a dynamo type player, which is what this team needs to get over the hump. Its not like how we were missing Arenas in the past. Anderson doesn't make that much of a difference.


He certainly won't put up huge numbers. But he'll be better defensively than Neal, and he's a better shooter than Temple. He's also a little bigger, which will help their small-ball lineups.

A couple more stops here, a couple more 3's there, over the last 31 games could mean a few more wins. Even something modest like 18-13 instead of 16-15 would be a huge difference in a crowded East. A game or two more and suddenly they are over .500 and one of the hotter teams going into the post-season.

Even going 18-13 probably won't get us in the playoffs. That would get us to .500, and there are currently 8 teams over .500 and a few more that are closer to .500 than we are. And the Wiz going as well as 18-13 just isn't likely without acquiring a PF.

Agreed. I'd say 44 wins is needed to make the playoffs. We certainly aren't going to do better than the 8th seed if we finish with 43 wins or less. To get to 44 wins, we need to go 22-13. That's a 52-win pace, or a .628 winning percentage. Not gonna happen.

But, we all know that management is going to be shortsighted about this. They're going to keep Dudley, Nene and Sessions and commit to a futile playoff push. I don't think they're dumb enough to trade a future 1st for more veteran help, but anything is possible. It's such a shame because Dudley's value is never going to be higher. Cleveland, OKC, the Clippers and Toronto would all love to add him and would probably pay through the nose to get him.
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#285 » by TheSecretWeapon » Mon Feb 8, 2016 7:27 pm

nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
LyricalRico wrote:
He certainly won't put up huge numbers. But he'll be better defensively than Neal, and he's a better shooter than Temple. He's also a little bigger, which will help their small-ball lineups.

A couple more stops here, a couple more 3's there, over the last 31 games could mean a few more wins. Even something modest like 18-13 instead of 16-15 would be a huge difference in a crowded East. A game or two more and suddenly they are over .500 and one of the hotter teams going into the post-season.

Even going 18-13 probably won't get us in the playoffs. That would get us to .500, and there are currently 8 teams over .500 and a few more that are closer to .500 than we are. And the Wiz going as well as 18-13 just isn't likely without acquiring a PF.

Agreed. I'd say 44 wins is needed to make the playoffs. We certainly aren't going to do better than the 8th seed if we finish with 43 wins or less. To get to 44 wins, we need to go 22-13. That's a 52-win pace, or a .628 winning percentage. Not gonna happen.

But, we all know that management is going to be shortsighted about this. They're going to keep Dudley, Nene and Sessions and commit to a futile playoff push. I don't think they're dumb enough to trade a future 1st for more veteran help, but anything is possible. It's such a shame because Dudley's value is never going to be higher. Cleveland, OKC, the Clippers and Toronto would all love to add him and would probably pay through the nose to get him.

Minor correction: it's even worse. The Wizards have 33 games remaining, not 35. To reach 44 wins, they'd need to go 22-11, which is the pace of a 55-win team. Not gonna happen.
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#286 » by ptptpt » Mon Feb 8, 2016 8:22 pm

LyricalRico wrote:
He certainly won't put up huge numbers. But he'll be better defensively than Neal, and he's a better shooter than Temple. He's also a little bigger, which will help their small-ball lineups.

A couple more stops here, a couple more 3's there, over the last 31 games could mean a few more wins. Even something modest like 18-13 instead of 16-15 would be a huge difference in a crowded East. A game or two more and suddenly they are over .500 and one of the hotter teams going into the post-season.


If it were that easy, then the folks on the roster would be doing it right now. Then his contribution would be an added bonus instead of a need. If we are depending on essentially a role player to jump the team into the playoffs, then its time re evaluate life.
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#287 » by Hidden Eye » Mon Feb 8, 2016 8:44 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Even going 18-13 probably won't get us in the playoffs. That would get us to .500, and there are currently 8 teams over .500 and a few more that are closer to .500 than we are. And the Wiz going as well as 18-13 just isn't likely without acquiring a PF.

Agreed. I'd say 44 wins is needed to make the playoffs. We certainly aren't going to do better than the 8th seed if we finish with 43 wins or less. To get to 44 wins, we need to go 22-13. That's a 52-win pace, or a .628 winning percentage. Not gonna happen.

But, we all know that management is going to be shortsighted about this. They're going to keep Dudley, Nene and Sessions and commit to a futile playoff push. I don't think they're dumb enough to trade a future 1st for more veteran help, but anything is possible. It's such a shame because Dudley's value is never going to be higher. Cleveland, OKC, the Clippers and Toronto would all love to add him and would probably pay through the nose to get him.

Minor correction: it's even worse. The Wizards have 33 games remaining, not 35. To reach 44 wins, they'd need to go 22-11, which is the pace of a 55-win team. Not gonna happen.

We have the easiest schedule from here on out and the other EC teams are gonna come back down to earth. There isn't a big 10 game gap from the standings the wizards can easily sneak back into high seed.
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#288 » by Hidden Eye » Mon Feb 8, 2016 8:46 pm

jayscott wrote:
LyricalRico wrote:
He certainly won't put up huge numbers. But he'll be better defensively than Neal, and he's a better shooter than Temple. He's also a little bigger, which will help their small-ball lineups.

A couple more stops here, a couple more 3's there, over the last 31 games could mean a few more wins. Even something modest like 18-13 instead of 16-15 would be a huge difference in a crowded East. A game or two more and suddenly they are over .500 and one of the hotter teams going into the post-season.


If it were that easy, then the folks on the roster would be doing it right now. Then his contribution would be an added bonus instead of a need. If we are depending on essentially a role player to jump the team into the playoffs, then its time re evaluate life.

Neal isn't that bad what's with all the hate?
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#289 » by TheSecretWeapon » Mon Feb 8, 2016 9:08 pm

Hidden Eye wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:
nate33 wrote:Agreed. I'd say 44 wins is needed to make the playoffs. We certainly aren't going to do better than the 8th seed if we finish with 43 wins or less. To get to 44 wins, we need to go 22-13. That's a 52-win pace, or a .628 winning percentage. Not gonna happen.

But, we all know that management is going to be shortsighted about this. They're going to keep Dudley, Nene and Sessions and commit to a futile playoff push. I don't think they're dumb enough to trade a future 1st for more veteran help, but anything is possible. It's such a shame because Dudley's value is never going to be higher. Cleveland, OKC, the Clippers and Toronto would all love to add him and would probably pay through the nose to get him.

Minor correction: it's even worse. The Wizards have 33 games remaining, not 35. To reach 44 wins, they'd need to go 22-11, which is the pace of a 55-win team. Not gonna happen.

We have the easiest schedule from here on out and the other EC teams are gonna come back down to earth. There isn't a big 10 game gap from the standings the wizards can easily sneak back into high seed.

I quantified what "easiest schedule" means. Wiz opponents have been 0.77 points per game better than average so far this season. They've been outscored by 2.71 points per game -- a strength-of-schedule adjusted scoring margin of -1.95. The rest of the way, the Wizards opponents are a -1.21 points per game in the same metric. In other words, the Wizards have performed thus far at a level even weaker than their remaining opponents have performed. Plus, 19 of their remaining games are on the road.

When I crunch the numbers, the Wizards would be favored in just 12 of their remaining 33 games. Roughly 10 of their remaining games are "coin flip" odds (+/-5% of 50/50).

I don't think the Wizards will actually go 12-21 to finish the season with 34 wins. I think 16-18 wins the rest of the way is more like it.

It's not just a matter of being "only" 3.5 games out of the 8th spot. It's a question of how they've been playing, how they're likely to play, and how their competitors have/are likely to continue playing. It's also not just a question of Detroit or Charlotte or Indiana or Chicago falling apart. Orlando is "only" a half game behind the Wizards. The Knicks are "only" another game behind the Magic.
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#290 » by TheSecretWeapon » Mon Feb 8, 2016 9:09 pm

Hidden Eye wrote:
jayscott wrote:
LyricalRico wrote:
He certainly won't put up huge numbers. But he'll be better defensively than Neal, and he's a better shooter than Temple. He's also a little bigger, which will help their small-ball lineups.

A couple more stops here, a couple more 3's there, over the last 31 games could mean a few more wins. Even something modest like 18-13 instead of 16-15 would be a huge difference in a crowded East. A game or two more and suddenly they are over .500 and one of the hotter teams going into the post-season.


If it were that easy, then the folks on the roster would be doing it right now. Then his contribution would be an added bonus instead of a need. If we are depending on essentially a role player to jump the team into the playoffs, then its time re evaluate life.

Neal isn't that bad what's with all the hate?

Neal isn't good, but he's having a productive season for a reserve guard. It's not very likely that Anderson will return from injury to be more productive than Neal has been -- especially considering that Anderson has never actually been as productive as Neal has been this season.
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#291 » by nuposse04 » Mon Feb 8, 2016 9:20 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:
Hidden Eye wrote:
jayscott wrote:
If it were that easy, then the folks on the roster would be doing it right now. Then his contribution would be an added bonus instead of a need. If we are depending on essentially a role player to jump the team into the playoffs, then its time re evaluate life.

Neal isn't that bad what's with all the hate?

Neal isn't good, but he's having a productive season for a reserve guard. It's not very likely that Anderson will return from injury to be more productive than Neal has been -- especially considering that Anderson has never actually been as productive as Neal has been this season.


I get that he is shooting well, but how do you account for the teams +/- cratering whenever he gets on the court then? He is abominable on defense. One of the worst defender I have seen in the past decade on this team. Not to mention he's never met a shot he doesn't like. I'm not even sure you could categorize him as an average NBA player with how badly he destroys team play (Not sure if your PPA system rates him still as 100+). Yah he gets "his" but the team surely isn't getting theirs whenever he steps onto the court.

He reminds me of Corey Maggete's nickname, there is some scoring and and some penetrating (although rare), but you really don't like what you see. :noway:
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#292 » by Hidden Eye » Mon Feb 8, 2016 9:51 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:
Hidden Eye wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:Minor correction: it's even worse. The Wizards have 33 games remaining, not 35. To reach 44 wins, they'd need to go 22-11, which is the pace of a 55-win team. Not gonna happen.

We have the easiest schedule from here on out and the other EC teams are gonna come back down to earth. There isn't a big 10 game gap from the standings the wizards can easily sneak back into high seed.

I quantified what "easiest schedule" means. Wiz opponents have been 0.77 points per game better than average so far this season. They've been outscored by 2.71 points per game -- a strength-of-schedule adjusted scoring margin of -1.95. The rest of the way, the Wizards opponents are a -1.21 points per game in the same metric. In other words, the Wizards have performed thus far at a level even weaker than their remaining opponents have performed. Plus, 19 of their remaining games are on the road.

When I crunch the numbers, the Wizards would be favored in just 12 of their remaining 33 games. Roughly 10 of their remaining games are "coin flip" odds (+/-5% of 50/50).

I don't think the Wizards will actually go 12-21 to finish the season with 34 wins. I think 16-18 wins the rest of the way is more like it.

It's not just a matter of being "only" 3.5 games out of the 8th spot. It's a question of how they've been playing, how they're likely to play, and how their competitors have/are likely to continue playing. It's also not just a question of Detroit or Charlotte or Indiana or Chicago falling apart. Orlando is "only" a half game behind the Wizards. The Knicks are "only" another game behind the Magic.


3.5 games back isn't a difficult task to catch up to however that schedule with the Utah "Jazz" made up game isn't gonna help 3 games in 3 nights :lol:
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#293 » by Hidden Eye » Mon Feb 8, 2016 9:52 pm

nuposse04 wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:
Hidden Eye wrote:Neal isn't that bad what's with all the hate?

Neal isn't good, but he's having a productive season for a reserve guard. It's not very likely that Anderson will return from injury to be more productive than Neal has been -- especially considering that Anderson has never actually been as productive as Neal has been this season.


I get that he is shooting well, but how do you account for the teams +/- cratering whenever he gets on the court then? He is abominable on defense. One of the worst defender I have seen in the past decade on this team. Not to mention he's never met a shot he doesn't like. I'm not even sure you could categorize him as an average NBA player with how badly he destroys team play (Not sure if your PPA system rates him still as 100+). Yah he gets "his" but the team surely isn't getting theirs whenever he steps onto the court.

He reminds me of Corey Maggete's nickname, there is some scoring and and some penetrating (although rare), but you really don't like what you see. :noway:


You already know what kind of player he is and once he gets hot he's hard to stop of course you wanna see him play some Better D but you can't expect that both ways.
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#294 » by nuposse04 » Mon Feb 8, 2016 9:56 pm

Hidden Eye wrote:
You already know what kind of player he is and once he gets hot he's hard to stop of course you wanna see him play some Better D but you can't expect that both ways.


When someones lack of defensive ability is so bad that it outweighs said players shooting ability, and when said player also phases the rest of the team out of possessions... my first inclination would be to not sign said player.... and once I have somehow disregarded my first inclination, get rid of him as soon as possible. There has to be some other sucka ass GMs who could misconstrue Neal as a decent nba player, and hopefully they'd give value for him.
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#295 » by nate33 » Mon Feb 8, 2016 10:30 pm

Hidden Eye wrote:3.5 games back isn't a difficult task to catch up to however that schedule with the Utah "Jazz" made up game isn't gonna help 3 games in 3 nights :lol:

As TSW has pointed out, 3.5 games in 33 games is a lot to make up, when the teams that are ahead of you are playing .500 ball or better. And there are so many teams ahead of us that we can't count on them dropping. There will be at least 8 teams (not counting us) who finish with at least 43 wins. That means we need to go 22-11 over our final 33 games - a .667 win percentage. Essentially, we need to play like the 5th best team in the league. Do you really think that is likely?
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#296 » by TheSecretWeapon » Mon Feb 8, 2016 10:35 pm

nuposse04 wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:
Hidden Eye wrote:Neal isn't that bad what's with all the hate?

Neal isn't good, but he's having a productive season for a reserve guard. It's not very likely that Anderson will return from injury to be more productive than Neal has been -- especially considering that Anderson has never actually been as productive as Neal has been this season.


I get that he is shooting well, but how do you account for the teams +/- cratering whenever he gets on the court then? He is abominable on defense. One of the worst defender I have seen in the past decade on this team. Not to mention he's never met a shot he doesn't like. I'm not even sure you could categorize him as an average NBA player with how badly he destroys team play (Not sure if your PPA system rates him still as 100+). Yah he gets "his" but the team surely isn't getting theirs whenever he steps onto the court.

He reminds me of Corey Maggete's nickname, there is some scoring and and some penetrating (although rare), but you really don't like what you see. :noway:

Last update, Neal was at 71 in PPA. So, very solidly below average. He's not terrible, but he's not very good either. Honestly, he's performed about as well as the Wizards could have dreamed. He's not good, and hasn't been -- ever.

Defensively, there have been at least as bad, if not worse. Andre Miller was horrific defensively just last season. Drew Gooden was a trainwreck defensively last year too. Go back a few years and there was Antonio Daniels who was awful. If I recall right, Jordan Crawford was pretty destructive to team defense as well.

In the defense part of PPA, Neal does rate as the team's worst perimeter defender. Blair rates as having the team's worst defensive impact.
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#297 » by Hidden Eye » Tue Feb 9, 2016 3:01 am

nate33 wrote:
Hidden Eye wrote:3.5 games back isn't a difficult task to catch up to however that schedule with the Utah "Jazz" made up game isn't gonna help 3 games in 3 nights :lol:

As TSW has pointed out, 3.5 games in 33 games is a lot to make up, when the teams that are ahead of you are playing .500 ball or better. And there are so many teams ahead of us that we can't count on them dropping. There will be at least 8 teams (not counting us) who finish with at least 43 wins. That means we need to go 22-11 over our final 33 games - a .667 win percentage. Essentially, we need to play like the 5th best team in the league. Do you really think that is likely?


Schedule isn't that big of a task and you can rely on the other teams to take a stepback especially when they don't have playoff success.
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#298 » by Hidden Eye » Tue Feb 9, 2016 3:03 am

nuposse04 wrote:
Hidden Eye wrote:
You already know what kind of player he is and once he gets hot he's hard to stop of course you wanna see him play some Better D but you can't expect that both ways.


When someones lack of defensive ability is so bad that it outweighs said players shooting ability, and when said player also phases the rest of the team out of possessions... my first inclination would be to not sign said player.... and once I have somehow disregarded my first inclination, get rid of him as soon as possible. There has to be some other sucka ass GMs who could misconstrue Neal as a decent nba player, and hopefully they'd give value for him.


His Offense overweights his Defense we don't have to exxxxaggerate it.
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#299 » by Hidden Eye » Tue Feb 9, 2016 3:04 am

TheSecretWeapon wrote:
nuposse04 wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:Neal isn't good, but he's having a productive season for a reserve guard. It's not very likely that Anderson will return from injury to be more productive than Neal has been -- especially considering that Anderson has never actually been as productive as Neal has been this season.


I get that he is shooting well, but how do you account for the teams +/- cratering whenever he gets on the court then? He is abominable on defense. One of the worst defender I have seen in the past decade on this team. Not to mention he's never met a shot he doesn't like. I'm not even sure you could categorize him as an average NBA player with how badly he destroys team play (Not sure if your PPA system rates him still as 100+). Yah he gets "his" but the team surely isn't getting theirs whenever he steps onto the court.

He reminds me of Corey Maggete's nickname, there is some scoring and and some penetrating (although rare), but you really don't like what you see. :noway:

Last update, Neal was at 71 in PPA. So, very solidly below average. He's not terrible, but he's not very good either. Honestly, he's performed about as well as the Wizards could have dreamed. He's not good, and hasn't been -- ever.

Defensively, there have been at least as bad, if not worse. Andre Miller was horrific defensively just last season. Drew Gooden was a trainwreck defensively last year too. Go back a few years and there was Antonio Daniels who was awful. If I recall right, Jordan Crawford was pretty destructive to team defense as well.

In the defense part of PPA, Neal does rate as the team's worst perimeter defender. Blair rates as having the team's worst defensive impact.


Doesn't help with that 3 guard lineup..
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Re: Wizards sign Alan Anderson (1 yr/$4 mil) 

Post#300 » by McFilthy » Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:10 pm

I wish I knew Alan Anderson - the cat gives dap with the best of em.

Maybe we'll see him on the court sometime...

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