nate33 wrote:I'm still fine with my 49 win prediction.
This is the same team as last year with the same basic minutes distribution with Neal replacing Butler, except Porter is getting half of Pierce's minutes and Dudley is getting the rest. There's no fundamental reason why the Wizards should have dropped from the 5th best defensive team last season to the 25th best defensive team this season. This is merely a fluctuation. The Wizards D will improve. Randy's teams always defend. For now, I guess I'm happy that they've managed to fall just one game off a 49-win pace despite the awful defense.
If you had asked me how the Wizards would have fared so far based on the schedule, I would have assumed they'd go 2-1 at home (winning against NY, and losing one of the OKC/SAS games) and go 2-2 on the road (beating ORL, losing ATL, and losing one of MIL/BOS). So they should have been 4-3. Unfortunately, they had the awful loss at home against NY. Other than that, the win/loss record is in line with expectations.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/WAS/2016.html.
The defense HAS TO IMPROVE.
They're giving 110.4 points a game, which is currently 29th out of 30 teams. What's amazing is this includes holding Orlando to 87 points.
The past 6 games Washington has allowed 114.3 points per game!
Yeah, nate, being 3-4 and only one game off pace is miraculous considering points allowed.
Becoming first in pace is the outlying difference. Changing to Humphries at PF accounts for something given the pace.
How do I see things for Washington? I think the east had teams that essentially sandbagged last season. It was diluted by design last season. Teams are natural strength and beyond now. Some east teams made very shrewd moves in the offseason (Detroit, Milwaukee, New York, Charlotte). Orlando has a much better coach. Boston is a talented young team that is maturing. In addition to talented young players (Whiteside, Winslow, Johnson) the Miami Heat have healthy Bosh and Wade. Toronto is much tougher mentally with slim Lowry and competitive Demarre Carroll. It's not about the Wizards being worse, the east got tougher.
The next few games will reveal whether Wittman's defensive emphasis can be quickly reestablished. Pace and space threes beat Milwaukee and Orlando the first time. Threes beat the Spurs. I think the rematches with the Magic and Bucks over the two games will tell which way the team is headed.
Using my expect the worst mentality I hope I'm wrong but I expect two losses. A veteran team should be tougher and more physical. The opposition has two many athletic young bigs. It's not going to go well either game.
Wittman will be a dead man walking by Thanksgiving.
(I was pleasantly surprised that Beal wasn't seriously injured. Just because I expect the worst doesn't mean that the worst will happen).
