Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2)

[queridiculo]

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It's looking like the only way Grunfeld leaves is Wall to bolt in 2019 Free Agency

I wouldn't be so sure, Wall leaving perfectly fits into Leonsis small market victim narrative.

[nate33]

I suspect the reason Wall won't sign that extension is because he is putting pressure on Ted to go over the luxury tax.

[RussellandFlow]

As he should. When you are the franchise player and your ownership/front office has shown an inability to put their money where their mouth is then you have to flex your muscles a bit and show them you mean business.

[FAH1223]

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[NatP4]

Imagine if Satoransky Mac Oubre McCullough all have good seasons where they make big strides and contribute and become solid rotation players on rookie contracts. We will be sitting in a pretty good spot. Maybe a nice little bounce back healthy season for Mahinmi also.

I can see the season going either that way or the same as last year with little to no improvement.

[payitforward]

Imagine if Satoransky Mac Oubre McCullough all have good seasons where they make big strides and contribute and become solid rotation players on rookie contracts. We will be sitting in a pretty good spot. Maybe a nice little bounce back healthy season for Mahinmi also.

I can see the season going either that way or the same as last year with little to no improvement.

Imagine if Satoransky is 6th man of the year... no, make that Mac. & Oubre is most improved player of the year. & imagine that Michael Young is rookie of the year. And Wall is MVP. And Gortat finds the fountain of youth, drinks the elixir and is comeback player of the year (is there an award like that, btw?). & imagine that Devin Robinson is co-Rookie of the Year. & that we sign Jared Cunningham & he gets the "Best Returning Player from China" award. And....

Now let me ask you this -- can you also see the season going the way it did the year before last?

[BigA]

I suspect the reason Wall won't sign that extension is because he is putting pressure on Ted to go over the luxury tax.

So, maybe this is true. We don't know for sure.

Also, the Wizards are projected to be over the luxury tax line, but there are moves they could make to get under, since it's a matter of $5-6M or so. We know the Wizards have never paid the tax.

I'm interested in the Wizboard's wisdom on a couple things:

(1) Is there anything the team could do now by exceeding the tax (or could have realistically done since the end of the season) that would really move the needle competitively? I.e., move them clearly even or ahead of the Celtics for right now? Even if they had to go over by a lot?

(2) If the actual roster turns out to be essentially what it is now, is the better approach for the long-term to go over the tax this year or to make the move or moves necessary to get under? Would going over this year mainly be a demonstration for Wall without a real competitive impact? Would Wall see it that way? I know answering these involves some projections about health, Mahinmi's play, whether they would have to attach assets to trade Gortat for salary relief and so forth.

[DCZards]

The Zards improvement next season will depend, in large part, on the development of Oubre and Sato and the health of Mahinmi. Meeks, Smith and Frazier will be better than last year’s bench, but Oubre, Sato and Mahinmi are the keys, imo. (Ian’s offense sucks, but I was impressed by his D in those games where he was healthy.)

Of course, what matters most is our starters staying healthy.

[FAH1223]

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[payitforward]

The Zards improvement next season will depend, in large part, on the development of Oubre and Sato and the health of Mahinmi. Meeks, Smith and Frazier will be better than last year’s bench, but Oubre, Sato and Mahinmi are the keys, imo. (Ian’s offense sucks, but I was impressed by his D in those games where he was healthy.)

Of course, what matters most is our starters staying healthy.

Agreed. Except I assume you meant the development of Oubre, Sato & Mac.

As to the bench, Smith this year = Smith last year! But, Meeks & Frazier will almost certainly (barring injury) be better than Burke, Thornton & Jennings.

Only problem: those 3 guys combined for just 1650 minutes, so that's all the "suck" that gets removed.

If Mahinmi plays an injury-free season, that's by far the biggest potential source of improvement from last year.

[Ruzious]

Imagine if Satoransky Mac Oubre McCullough all have good seasons where they make big strides and contribute and become solid rotation players on rookie contracts. We will be sitting in a pretty good spot. Maybe a nice little bounce back healthy season for Mahinmi also.

I can see the season going either that way or the same as last year with little to no improvement.

Imagine if Satoransky is 6th man of the year... no, make that Mac. & Oubre is most improved player of the year. & imagine that Michael Young is rookie of the year. And Wall is MVP. And Gortat finds the fountain of youth, drinks the elixir and is comeback player of the year (is there an award like that, btw?). & imagine that Devin Robinson is co-Rookie of the Year. & that we sign Jared Cunningham & he gets the "Best Returning Player from China" award. And....

Now let me ask you this -- can you also see the season going the way it did the year before last?

Yeah, I don't think Jared Cunningham will be our next James Singleton. I looked up the word putrid, and the dictionary said Jared Cunningham's NBA stats. That's a true fictional story.

[J-Ves]

Imagine if Satoransky Mac Oubre McCullough all have good seasons where they make big strides and contribute and become solid rotation players on rookie contracts. We will be sitting in a pretty good spot. Maybe a nice little bounce back healthy season for Mahinmi also.

I can see the season going either that way or the same as last year with little to no improvement.

That was fun. Now imagine Wall, Beal OR Porter going down with an injury that lasts months.


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[closg00]

Almost started a new thread titled "Tracking players we could have drafted in the 2017 NBA draft", but I'll just start memorializing them here. Caleb Swanigan is exactly the kind of player we needed to groom and let Morris walk.
https://www.hammerandrails.com/2017/7/10/15946982/caleb-swanigan-las-vegas-summer-league-update

Watch on YouTube

[Ruzious]

Almost started a new thread titled "Tracking players we could have drafted in the 2017 NBA draft", but I'll just start memorializing them here. Caleb Swanigan is exactly the kind of player we needed to groom and let Morris walk.
https://www.hammerandrails.com/2017/7/10/15946982/caleb-swanigan-las-vegas-summer-league-update

If Swanigan had lasted a few more picks - no doubt SA would have taken him. What a dynamic scorer/rebounder he is, and he moves better on defense than given credit for. I think he got his body in much better shape than people thought he would. I think by the end of the season, people will see he should have been a top 10 pick.

[queridiculo]

Swanigan was a guy I was high on, would have been a great fit as a change of pace guy at the 4 or 5.

Seeing him push the ball up the floor on occasion and how comfortable he is passing the ball sure makes me wish he'd be a Wizards right now.

Heck, even projects like Kuzma or Bradley would have been better than... well, nothing.

[payitforward]

Almost started a new thread titled "Tracking players we could have drafted in the 2017 NBA draft", but I'll just start memorializing them here. Caleb Swanigan is exactly the kind of player we needed to groom and let Morris walk.
https://www.hammerandrails.com/2017/7/10/15946982/caleb-swanigan-las-vegas-summer-league-update

If Swanigan had lasted a few more picks - no doubt SA would have taken him. What a dynamic scorer/rebounder he is, and he moves better on defense than given credit for. I think he got his body in much better shape than people thought he would. I think by the end of the season, people will see he should have been a top 10 pick.

Clos -- I almost started a thread like that. But it would have covered a little more ground. Start in 2016 & go forward. & also include moves that were obvious but he didn't make -- like buying a couple of R2 picks.

I'd have started with...

If we hadn't traded a pick for Morris, we could have picked Brice Johnson (or Malik Beasley, or Juan Hernangomez, or Henry Ellenson, or Valentine, or Ante Zizic, or...).
If we hadn't traded this year's R1 pick we could have picked Caleb Swanigan.
If we'd bought a high R2 pick last year, we could have beaten GS to Patrick McCaw
Ditto this year, we'd have beaten them to Jordan Bell.
Had we bought the #48 pick from the Bucks, we would have Sindarius Thornwell (instead of the Clips, who did buy the pick)
Note that the Clippers also bought the #39 pick from the Sixers to get Jawun Evans.

Brice Johnson/Hernangomez/etc. will contribute more to the Clippers/Nuggets/etc. this year than Markieff Morris contributes to the Wizards. Obviously, he also costs less & his team will have solid control of him for some years to come. Ditto Malik Beasley, ditto... you get the idea.

Caleb Swanigan is a far better player than Bogdanovic & McCullough combined. Better than Markieff Morris too (& obviously costs less & his team will have solid control of him for some years to come).

Sindarius Thornwell is going to have an outstanding NBA career. Ditto Jordan Bell. Ditto Patrick McCaw. & very likely Jawun Evans as well. Anyone with half a brain would rather have any one of those guys than Tim Frazier or Jodie Meeks -- especially given that they'd all cost less than either Frazier or Meeks, & we'd have much more control over them long-term. And they turn into trade assets if needed.

The LA Clippers, a better team than the Wizards, & GS understand that you have to grow your team via the draft or your team dies.

Start that "missed opportunities" thread!!

[Ruzious]

Swanigan was a guy I was high on, would have been a great fit as a change of pace guy at the 4 or 5.

Seeing him push the ball up the floor on occasion and how comfortable he is passing the ball sure makes me wish he'd be a Wizards right now.

Heck, even projects like Kuzma or Bradley would have been better than... well, nothing.

Right - nothing is what we have to show for that first round pick. Bogdanovich was nothing - a very mediocre rent-a-player - and even he's gone. Where's the accountability for that? How do you tell your players about accountability when management doesn't show any? We have posters here that would have kept that pick and picked Swanigan. Can Washington management seriously say in hindsight that they made the right move in trading that pick for Bogd? For this season, for next season, the season after that, etc?

[Ruzious]

Swanigan was a guy I was high on, would have been a great fit as a change of pace guy at the 4 or 5.

Seeing him push the ball up the floor on occasion and how comfortable he is passing the ball sure makes me wish he'd be a Wizards right now.

Heck, even projects like Kuzma or Bradley would have been better than... well, nothing.

Right - nothing is what we have to show for that first round pick. Bogdanovich was nothing - a very mediocre rent-a-player - and even he's gone. Where's the accountability for that? How do you tell your players about accountability when management doesn't show any? We have posters here that would have kept that pick and picked Swanigan. Can Washington management seriously say in hindsight that they made the right move in trading that pick for Bogd? For this season, for next season, the season after that, etc?

[Rafael122]

Willie Reed, 1 year/$1.5 million deal. Signed on July 18, but 'ol Ernie wants to be done by the first weekend.

[FAH1223]

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