Kevin Durant to Washington Thread (Part 2)

[pineappleheadindc]

Continued from here.

Last post in the old thread --

KD ain't winning **** in OKC. Come home and play with a real pg

[nate33]

Will Durant come here just so he doesn't have to see Curry so often?

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2AXDDRDdy0[/youtube]

[FAH1223]

Westbrook is way better than Wall

KD ain't ever coming here

[payitforward]

It's a pipe dream, but it keeps everyone happy -- and it detracts from the fact that we keep trading away our future to try desperately to stay at the level we currently are.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Will Durant come here just so he doesn't have to see Curry so often?

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2AXDDRDdy0[/youtube]

When I see that clip, I can immediately see how overrated Curry is. No way that kind of ball handling, quickness and playmaking could translate to other eras. That play was TOTALLY created by Draymond Green giving him the ball and standing still.

[pcbothwel]

Westbrook is way better than Wall

KD ain't ever coming here

Odd time to make that comment. Westbrook just went 8-24 (33%) last night while Durant was 11-17 (65%). You think Wall would shoot it 24 times when KD is on his team and shooting 65%? Not a chance.

Westbrook may be better than Wall, but Wall plays the kind of basketball that gets other players engaged. I think we all agree that Kobe > Jason Kidd, but i bet a lot of players would prefer to play with Jason Kidd over Kobe for 4-5 seasons. Dont be fooled about Westbrooks assist numbers. He is explosive and attacks the basket and then may dump it off on Kanter in the last second, but he doesnt play with the vision that Wall, CP3, Curry play with.

A lot of people always focus on the Wall vs Westbrook aspect, but ignore other factors such as:
- Gortat is considerably better than Kanter and better than Adams (And i really like Adams)
- Ibaka has been declining considerably each of the last 4 years and no longer appears to be a 3rd piece on a championship team.
- Otto has gotten considerably better and is in fact a better player than Ibaka... Yes, its true
- Oubre and Satoransky are both wild cards that are not currently relied on by the Wiz, but could be huge contributors.
- McGary has regressed and no longer looks as appealing as he did 12 months ago.
- We've added Morris and we can all hate the trade or believe Kieff is only an average player. But he is a solid piece and backup 4 on a contender.

So, we have players who are ball movers while their best players are iso superstars (Westbrook), terrible defenders (Kanter), or blackholes on offense (Waiters, Kanter, Ibaka).

For god sakes Waiters plays 28 minutes a game... 28!?!

[TheSecretWeapon]

I think we all agree that Kobe > Jason Kidd,

I wouldn't agree with that.

In terms of career accomplishments, Kobe was fortunate to play for one of the best franchises in the league. He got to play with Shaq and then with Pau Gasol, two of the better big men around. Kobe was never the leading producer on a title team. He was a terrific player who had one of the all-time great careers, but his reputation and accolades surpassed his actual on-court performance.

Looking at Kidd vs. Kobe, they're fairly comparable in a lot of ways. Kidd played 21 seasons; Kobe 20. Kidd had 50,111 regular season minutes; Kobe will end up with nearly 49,000. Kidd comes out slightly ahead in PPA with a 167 to Kobe's 160.

Kidd peaked slightly higher -- a 208 to Kobe's 200. Kidd had two seasons better than Kobe's peak. If I sort by PPA to get best season for each so that I'm comparing Kidd's best season to Kobe's best season, Kidd's 2nd best season to Kobe's 2nd best season, and so on, Kidd comes out ahead in 19 of 20 seasons. Kobe's 5th best season was a PPA of 185, which was slightly better than Kidd's 180. Season by season, they're fairly comparable through their top 13 seasons.

Looking back at the chronological sort, Kidd didn't have the rough start Kobe did. And, Kidd didn't have the horror tail of his career like Kobe has had. Kobe has five seasons (his first two and last three) worse than Kidd's worst.

If I throw out Kobe's five worst seasons, he edges ahead of Kidd 172-167. If I do the same for Kidd, he moves back ahead.

I do agree with your conclusion, though -- anyone sane would prefer playing with Kidd than Kobe. That said, who do you think is averaging more assists per 100 team possessions this season: Wall or Westbrook?

The answer:

Spoiler:

Westbrook 14.6 to Wall's 13.4.

[Rafael122]

I think we all agree that Kobe > Jason Kidd,

I wouldn't agree with that.

In terms of career accomplishments, Kobe was fortunate to play for one of the best franchises in the league. He got to play with Shaq and then with Pau Gasol, two of the better big men around. Kobe was never the leading producer on a title team. He was a terrific player who had one of the all-time great careers, but his reputation and accolades surpassed his actual on-court performance.

Looking at Kidd vs. Kobe, they're fairly comparable in a lot of ways. Kidd played 21 seasons; Kobe 20. Kidd had 50,111 regular season minutes; Kobe will end up with nearly 49,000. Kidd comes out slightly ahead in PPA with a 167 to Kobe's 160.

Kidd peaked slightly higher -- a 208 to Kobe's 200. Kidd had two seasons better than Kobe's peak. If I sort by PPA to get best season for each so that I'm comparing Kidd's best season to Kobe's best season, Kidd's 2nd best season to Kobe's 2nd best season, and so on, Kidd comes out ahead in 19 of 20 seasons. Kobe's 5th best season was a PPA of 185, which was slightly better than Kidd's 180. Season by season, they're fairly comparable through their top 13 seasons.

Looking back at the chronological sort, Kidd didn't have the rough start Kobe did. And, Kidd didn't have the horror tail of his career like Kobe has had. Kobe has five seasons (his first two and last three) worse than Kidd's worst.

If I throw out Kobe's five worst seasons, he edges ahead of Kidd 172-167. If I do the same for Kidd, he moves back ahead.

I do agree with your conclusion, though -- anyone sane would prefer playing with Kidd than Kobe. That said, who do you think is averaging more assists per 100 team possessions this season: Wall or Westbrook?

The answer:

Spoiler:

Westbrook 14.6 to Wall's 13.4.

I bet Rondo averages more than Wall too yes?

[bondom34]

Westbrook is way better than Wall

KD ain't ever coming here

Odd time to make that comment. Westbrook just went 8-24 (33%) last night while Durant was 11-17 (65%). You think Wall would shoot it 24 times when KD is on his team and shooting 65%? Not a chance.

FWIW, Wall shot 8-23 while two other starters shot 8-14 and 6-10 vs Toronto just this season. They weren't KD, but not all of Westbrook's minutes are with KD, and now even fewer are that they're staggering.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I think we all agree that Kobe > Jason Kidd,

I wouldn't agree with that.

In terms of career accomplishments, Kobe was fortunate to play for one of the best franchises in the league. He got to play with Shaq and then with Pau Gasol, two of the better big men around. Kobe was never the leading producer on a title team. He was a terrific player who had one of the all-time great careers, but his reputation and accolades surpassed his actual on-court performance.

Looking at Kidd vs. Kobe, they're fairly comparable in a lot of ways. Kidd played 21 seasons; Kobe 20. Kidd had 50,111 regular season minutes; Kobe will end up with nearly 49,000. Kidd comes out slightly ahead in PPA with a 167 to Kobe's 160.

Kidd peaked slightly higher -- a 208 to Kobe's 200. Kidd had two seasons better than Kobe's peak. If I sort by PPA to get best season for each so that I'm comparing Kidd's best season to Kobe's best season, Kidd's 2nd best season to Kobe's 2nd best season, and so on, Kidd comes out ahead in 19 of 20 seasons. Kobe's 5th best season was a PPA of 185, which was slightly better than Kidd's 180. Season by season, they're fairly comparable through their top 13 seasons.

Looking back at the chronological sort, Kidd didn't have the rough start Kobe did. And, Kidd didn't have the horror tail of his career like Kobe has had. Kobe has five seasons (his first two and last three) worse than Kidd's worst.

If I throw out Kobe's five worst seasons, he edges ahead of Kidd 172-167. If I do the same for Kidd, he moves back ahead.

I do agree with your conclusion, though -- anyone sane would prefer playing with Kidd than Kobe. That said, who do you think is averaging more assists per 100 team possessions this season: Wall or Westbrook?

The answer:

Spoiler:

Westbrook 14.6 to Wall's 13.4.

I bet Rondo averages more than Wall too yes?

Yep. Also Rubio and Chris Paul.

[Rafael122]

I wouldn't agree with that.

In terms of career accomplishments, Kobe was fortunate to play for one of the best franchises in the league. He got to play with Shaq and then with Pau Gasol, two of the better big men around. Kobe was never the leading producer on a title team. He was a terrific player who had one of the all-time great careers, but his reputation and accolades surpassed his actual on-court performance.

Looking at Kidd vs. Kobe, they're fairly comparable in a lot of ways. Kidd played 21 seasons; Kobe 20. Kidd had 50,111 regular season minutes; Kobe will end up with nearly 49,000. Kidd comes out slightly ahead in PPA with a 167 to Kobe's 160.

Kidd peaked slightly higher -- a 208 to Kobe's 200. Kidd had two seasons better than Kobe's peak. If I sort by PPA to get best season for each so that I'm comparing Kidd's best season to Kobe's best season, Kidd's 2nd best season to Kobe's 2nd best season, and so on, Kidd comes out ahead in 19 of 20 seasons. Kobe's 5th best season was a PPA of 185, which was slightly better than Kidd's 180. Season by season, they're fairly comparable through their top 13 seasons.

Looking back at the chronological sort, Kidd didn't have the rough start Kobe did. And, Kidd didn't have the horror tail of his career like Kobe has had. Kobe has five seasons (his first two and last three) worse than Kidd's worst.

If I throw out Kobe's five worst seasons, he edges ahead of Kidd 172-167. If I do the same for Kidd, he moves back ahead.

I do agree with your conclusion, though -- anyone sane would prefer playing with Kidd than Kobe. That said, who do you think is averaging more assists per 100 team possessions this season: Wall or Westbrook?

The answer:

Spoiler:

Westbrook 14.6 to Wall's 13.4.

I bet Rondo averages more than Wall too yes?

Yep. Also Rubio and Chris Paul.

Paul I can't argue, not sure on Rubio but it would be really interesting to see how many assists per game Rondo and Russ dish out for shots 10 feet and closer vs. mid range and outside shots. Rondo is a notorious assist padder, literally giving up layups just to hand it to the next guy.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Paul I can't argue, not sure on Rubio but it would be really interesting to see how many assists per game Rondo and Russ dish out for shots 10 feet and closer vs. mid range and outside shots. Rondo is a notorious assist padder, literally giving up layups just to hand it to the next guy.

Those numbers exist, and I'll see if I can dig them out.

In the meantime, my pals at NylonCalculus have some interesting stats:

In "scoring usage" (basically how often a player attempts to score vs. overall possessions)

- Westbrook 26.9%
- Durant 25.9%
- Wall 24.1%

"Playmaking usage" -- assist opportunities / possessions AND "playmaking efg" (teammate effective field goal percentage on assist opportunities

1. Rondo 28.0% -- .612
2. Paul 26.1% -- .623
3. Wall 25.5% -- .595
4. Rubio 24.8% -- .580
5. Westbrook 23.3% -- .633

League leading PGs in playmaking efg

1. Patty Mills .678
2. Dellavedova .666
3. Irving .654
4. Lillard .646
5. Goodwin .641

Then Lowry, Westbrook, Mudiay (WTF?), Ish, Paul, Curry.

[Kanyewest]

Westbrook is way better than Wall

KD ain't ever coming here

Odd time to make that comment. Westbrook just went 8-24 (33%) last night while Durant was 11-17 (65%). You think Wall would shoot it 24 times when KD is on his team and shooting 65%? Not a chance.

FWIW, Wall shot 8-23 while two other starters shot 8-14 and 6-10 vs Toronto just this season. They weren't KD, but not all of Westbrook's minutes are with KD, and now even fewer are that they're staggering.

Still, Westbrook is more likely to have shoot more than Wall. This season, Westbrook has had 15 games with 23 or more shots while Wall has had 9. In one sense, I would expect Westbrook to shoot it more than Wall because Westbrook has been more efficient especially since Westbrook draws more free throw attempts. Still, Westbrook may be holding Durant back given that Westbrook is shooting the ball more than Durant this season (per 36 minutes).

[Kanyewest]

I do agree with your conclusion, though -- anyone sane would prefer playing with Kidd than Kobe. That said, who do you think is averaging more assists per 100 team possessions this season: Wall or Westbrook?

The answer:

Spoiler:

Westbrook 14.6 to Wall's 13.4.

An interesting thought experiment is what would the assist numbers if Wall played in OKC and if Westbrook played in Washington. I would imagine that Wall would get more assists and be more efficient in scoring the basketball than in Washington. Of course, it would be interesting to see if Wall would decrease the overall offensive efficiency of OKC compared to someone like Westbrook who often commands double teams and gets to the foul line at a high rate.

[bondom34]

Odd time to make that comment. Westbrook just went 8-24 (33%) last night while Durant was 11-17 (65%). You think Wall would shoot it 24 times when KD is on his team and shooting 65%? Not a chance.

FWIW, Wall shot 8-23 while two other starters shot 8-14 and 6-10 vs Toronto just this season. They weren't KD, but not all of Westbrook's minutes are with KD, and now even fewer are that they're staggering.

Still, Westbrook is more likely to have shoot more than Wall. This season, Westbrook has had 15 games with 23 or more shots while Wall has had 9. In one sense, I would expect Westbrook to shoot it more than Wall because Westbrook has been more efficient especially since Westbrook draws more free throw attempts. Still, Westbrook may be holding Durant back given that Westbrook is shooting the ball more than Durant this season (per 36 minutes).

Per 100 possessions, Wall is taking about 1.5 shots less. Durant's still near leading the league in scoring, and Westbrook sets him up for about 40 percent of his shots. There's no substantive way he's being held back, unless you're expecting a 40 ppg season. And as you said above, Westbrook is overall the superior offensive player by a good margin.

[bondom34]

Paul I can't argue, not sure on Rubio but it would be really interesting to see how many assists per game Rondo and Russ dish out for shots 10 feet and closer vs. mid range and outside shots. Rondo is a notorious assist padder, literally giving up layups just to hand it to the next guy.

Those numbers exist, and I'll see if I can dig them out.

In the meantime, my pals at NylonCalculus have some interesting stats:

In "scoring usage" (basically how often a player attempts to score vs. overall possessions)

- Westbrook 26.9%
- Durant 25.9%
- Wall 24.1%

"Playmaking usage" -- assist opportunities / possessions AND "playmaking efg" (teammate effective field goal percentage on assist opportunities

1. Rondo 28.0% -- .612
2. Paul 26.1% -- .623
3. Wall 25.5% -- .595
4. Rubio 24.8% -- .580
5. Westbrook 23.3% -- .633

League leading PGs in playmaking efg

1. Patty Mills .678
2. Dellavedova .666
3. Irving .654
4. Lillard .646
5. Goodwin .641

Then Lowry, Westbrook, Mudiay (WTF?), Ish, Paul, Curry.

I'm sure there's a better way, but the only one I know is to go through the play finder on bbr and count.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/plus/event_finder.cgi?request=1&player_id=westbru01&event_code=ast&year_id=2016&is_playoffs=N

[pcbothwel]

I do agree with your conclusion, though -- anyone sane would prefer playing with Kidd than Kobe. That said, who do you think is averaging more assists per 100 team possessions this season: Wall or Westbrook?

The answer:

Spoiler:

Westbrook 14.6 to Wall's 13.4.

I understand the assist numbers show westbrook with a high assist number, but as I mentioned before, not all assist are created equal

Dont be fooled about Westbrooks assist numbers. He is explosive and attacks the basket and then may dump it off on Kanter in the last second, but he doesnt play with the vision that Wall, CP3, Curry play with.

I'm sure there are advanced stats on this, but its hard to quantify this kind of thing.
But Westbrook does not "run" the offense and manipulate the defense the way true Pg's do. If you watch every OKC offensive possession you see a Harden/Kobe type of mentality 80-90% of the time and when the defense over rotates on him, he'll dump it off to Kanter(A guy I play pickup with is a huge OKC/Westbrook fanatic and even agrees).

Again, its hard to explain, but it's not using change of pace and angles to create openings for teammates the way Wall, CP3, and Curry do.

TSW, You are one of the more knowledgeable posters here (especially with analytics) so I don't need to give you any lessons, but here are some important things to note.
While the West is better than the east, Wall has put up most of his assist this season against (In order):
Magic
Bucks
Boston
Cavs
Toronto

While the Magic and Bucks are not very good, the Celtics, Cavs, and Raptors are.

Westbrook has put up most of his assist this season against (In order):
Sacramento
Dallas
Memphis
Minnesota
Phoenix

Dallas and Memphis are okay, but the Kings, Twolves, and Suns are trash

This isnt to say Walls are particularly harder, but he shouldn't get punished because he plays in the east either.

Of Walls 592 assist, 474 of them (81%) go to 6 players(In Order with fg%):
Gorat - 55%
Porter - 46%
Dudley - 48%
Beal - 46%
Temple - 38%
Nene- 53%

Of Westbrooks 639 assist, 525 of them (82%) go to 4 players (In Order with fg%):
KD - 51%
Ibaka - 49%
Adams- 60%
Kanter - 56%

Westbrook has guys who are much better scorers (I use fg instead of eFg because assist is an assist no matter the amount of points).

Walls saving grace is Gortat and while Gortat is certainly responsible for a lot of his buckets, its easy to score efficently when Wall sets up like this:





Kanter on the other hand appears to convert at high rate while doing the creating himself a lot.Here are some of his assist that didnt require anything on Westbrooks part:



Yes... you saw that right. It was an air-ball floater that kanter caught and put back, yet they awarded Westbrook the assist, not a missed shot

[TheSecretWeapon]

I understand the point you're making, I just don't agree. I guarantee we could go through Wall video and find an example of a head-scratching assist awarded. We could go through just about anyone's game film and find examples of an assist being bizarrely awarded (or denied).

We're getting way down into the weeds on this. My guess is that players will choose to play with the guy they think will give them the better chance of winning. My guess is that most players would choose Westbrook over Wall if that was the decision, but I could be wrong.

[Kanyewest]

FWIW, Wall shot 8-23 while two other starters shot 8-14 and 6-10 vs Toronto just this season. They weren't KD, but not all of Westbrook's minutes are with KD, and now even fewer are that they're staggering.

Still, Westbrook is more likely to have shoot more than Wall. This season, Westbrook has had 15 games with 23 or more shots while Wall has had 9. In one sense, I would expect Westbrook to shoot it more than Wall because Westbrook has been more efficient especially since Westbrook draws more free throw attempts. Still, Westbrook may be holding Durant back given that Westbrook is shooting the ball more than Durant this season (per 36 minutes).

Per 100 possessions, Wall is taking about 1.5 shots less. Durant's still near leading the league in scoring, and Westbrook sets him up for about 40 percent of his shots. There's no substantive way he's being held back, unless you're expecting a 40 ppg season. And as you said above, Westbrook is overall the superior offensive player by a good margin.

Durant could be a little better; in his MVP season, he averaged 29.9 ppg per 36 as he was getting to the free throw line 9.3 attempts per 36 and while also taking more field goal attempts. This season Durant has averaged 27.9 ppg per 36 minutes and "only" getting to the free throw line 6.8 per 36. In both those seasons, Durant had a TS% of 63% but his team had a better offensive rating.

I wouldn't want Durant to shoot the ball 30 times per game but a couple more attempts per game would probably be more optimal; right now Durant is shooting less per 36 than Steph Curry. It doesn't make sense to me for Westbrook to have more attempts than Durant given that Durant has a higher TS% than Westbrook (63% to 55%). The Thunder are certainly a better team with Westbrook on the court but he still needs to eliminate ill advised shots against the elite teams like Golden State and San Antonio.

I would still say Wall is behind Westbrook in terms of overall efficiency (TS%, getting to the line, rebounding). Although I do wonder how much Wall's efficiency would benefit by playing with Durant.

[bondom34]

Still, Westbrook is more likely to have shoot more than Wall. This season, Westbrook has had 15 games with 23 or more shots while Wall has had 9. In one sense, I would expect Westbrook to shoot it more than Wall because Westbrook has been more efficient especially since Westbrook draws more free throw attempts. Still, Westbrook may be holding Durant back given that Westbrook is shooting the ball more than Durant this season (per 36 minutes).

Per 100 possessions, Wall is taking about 1.5 shots less. Durant's still near leading the league in scoring, and Westbrook sets him up for about 40 percent of his shots. There's no substantive way he's being held back, unless you're expecting a 40 ppg season. And as you said above, Westbrook is overall the superior offensive player by a good margin.

Durant could be a little better; in his MVP season, he averaged 29.9 ppg per 36 as he was getting to the free throw line 9.3 attempts per 36 and while also taking more field goal attempts. This season Durant has averaged 27.9 ppg per 36 minutes and "only" getting to the free throw line 6.8 per 36.

I wouldn't want Durant to shoot the ball 30 times per game but a couple more attempts per game would probably be more optimal; right now Durant is shooting less per 36 than Steph Curry. It doesn't make sense to me for Westbrook to have more attempts than Durant given that Durant has a higher TS% than Westbrook (63% to 55%). The Thunder are certainly a better team with Westbrook on the court but he still needs to eliminate ill advised shots against the elite teams like Golden State and San Antonio.

I would still say Wall is behind Westbrook in terms of overall efficiency (TS%, getting to the line, rebounding). Although I do wonder how much Wall's efficiency would benefit by playing with Durant.

He was averaging only 0.5 more FGA per game his MVP year, it wasn't a matter of him getting more shots, he was getting to the line more. This season for some reason he's gone more to the 3 point line a bit and hasn't attacked as much. Per 36 this is his 2nd highest volume season. As for scoring, its possible, but Durant isn't often getting Westbrook open looks (he's assisted on 59 of Westbrook's 539 FGs). Westbrook's generally getting him looks (Westbrook assisting on 196 of Durant's 533). As much as people say he's not getting Durant the ball, he is. And he took 1 bad shot to end a game, which was preceded in all honesty by a solid 4 minutes of awful shots by KD. As to him not creating looks for players, he was second in the league last year for FG percentage following a pass, ahead of Wall. And that was w/ very little Durant. I got into this in the offseason, and really don't care to again, but offensively there's no comparison, and overall there's not much either at this point. And I say this as someone who likes Wall, but he has nowhere near the impact of Westbrook.