Jason Smith, 3 yr/$16M deal

[closg00]

We got SO Grunfelded on this signing, such a fricking rip-off and stupid move. WHY does Ernie give a player like Smith the 3rd year option, not the other way around?!?! Also, I could find no accounts of other teams trying to sign him. 1-Year $2 Mil max.

[Magic_Johnny12]

I'm actually surprised of all the hate, I was actually quite disappointed we didn't retain Smith and was one of my fav players last season. What he does on the court doesn't show on stat sheets and I think that in itself is worth at least a 2 yr guaranteed contract. His game isn't relied on athleticism and he doesn't have a serious history of injuries that he's still plagued from. Many posters on our board and some analysts predicted he will get a contract easily starting at 8 - 10m.

I'm not quite familiar with the teams overall plan and and cap situation and this contract could have obviously derailed that in some form making it seem worse then it truly is, but outside looking in this contract isn't as bas as some of you guys are making it and believe its an easily moveable contract. Furthermore I truly feel he deserves every penny of it.

[montestewart]

I'm actually surprised of all the hate, I was actually quite disappointed we didn't retain Smith and was one of my fav players last season. What he does on the court doesn't show on stat sheets and I think that in itself is worth at least a 2 yr guaranteed contract. His game isn't relied on athleticism and he doesn't have a serious history of injuries that he's still plagued from. Many posters on our board and some analysts predicted he will get a contract easily starting at 8 - 10m.

I'm not quite familiar with the teams overall plan and and cap situation and this contract could have obviously derailed that in some form making it seem worse then it truly is, but outside looking in this contract isn't as bas as some of you guys are making it and believe its an easily moveable contract. Furthermore I truly feel he deserves every penny of it.

You posted well over 100 words asserting that Jason Smith does things on the court that don't show up on the stat sheet, without offering one word to explain what these things are. Is it the extra butt slap after a good play? Does he intervene when a frustrated teammate is overzealously arguing a call? Most have us have seen at least a little of J-Smi, and we have seen his stats and his advanced stats. What are we missing?

Curious in DC

[nate33]

I'm actually surprised of all the hate, I was actually quite disappointed we didn't retain Smith and was one of my fav players last season. What he does on the court doesn't show on stat sheets and I think that in itself is worth at least a 2 yr guaranteed contract. His game isn't relied on athleticism and he doesn't have a serious history of injuries that he's still plagued from. Many posters on our board and some analysts predicted he will get a contract easily starting at 8 - 10m.

I'm not quite familiar with the teams overall plan and and cap situation and this contract could have obviously derailed that in some form making it seem worse then it truly is, but outside looking in this contract isn't as bas as some of you guys are making it and believe its an easily moveable contract. Furthermore I truly feel he deserves every penny of it.

You posted well over 100 words asserting that Jason Smith does things on the court that don't show up on the stat sheet, without offering one word to explain what these things are. Is it the extra butt slap after a good play? Does he intervene when a frustrated teammate is overzealously arguing a call? Most have us have seen at least a little of J-Smi, and we have seen his stats and his advanced stats. What are we missing?

Curious in DC

In a desperate attempt to find a positive about the signing, I note that Jason Smith ranks a half-decent 52nd among NBA power forwards in defensive RPM (That's really about 45th once you weed out the real low-minute guys above him). His DRPM is a +0.53. That ranks him about the same as guys like Motiejunas, Marvin Williams, Mirotic, and Brendan Bass; and way better than guys like Ilyasova, Ryan Anderson, Kris Humphries, Terrence Jones and Bobby Portis.

He's also a pretty deadly midrange shooter, hitting 48% of his shots from 16-22 feet with a very high percentage of his shots coming from that range (62%). Among the 33 guys who shot 100 or more midrange shots last year, he had the 6th highest shooting percentage and the highest per-minute volume:



So basically, we're getting a real solid pick-and-pop threat on offense who doesn't kill us on defense.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I liked him in the draft. I liked Nicholson, too.

I hope pcbothwel is right that I am too negative on EG.

Perhaps Smith will surprise. I just note the glut of players at C and PF and don't see enough minutes for Smith or Nicholson to shine.

Sent from my LG-H345 using RealGM mobile app

[montestewart]

I'm actually surprised of all the hate, I was actually quite disappointed we didn't retain Smith and was one of my fav players last season. What he does on the court doesn't show on stat sheets and I think that in itself is worth at least a 2 yr guaranteed contract. His game isn't relied on athleticism and he doesn't have a serious history of injuries that he's still plagued from. Many posters on our board and some analysts predicted he will get a contract easily starting at 8 - 10m.

I'm not quite familiar with the teams overall plan and and cap situation and this contract could have obviously derailed that in some form making it seem worse then it truly is, but outside looking in this contract isn't as bas as some of you guys are making it and believe its an easily moveable contract. Furthermore I truly feel he deserves every penny of it.

You posted well over 100 words asserting that Jason Smith does things on the court that don't show up on the stat sheet, without offering one word to explain what these things are. Is it the extra butt slap after a good play? Does he intervene when a frustrated teammate is overzealously arguing a call? Most have us have seen at least a little of J-Smi, and we have seen his stats and his advanced stats. What are we missing?

Curious in DC

In a desperate attempt to find a positive about the signing, I note that Jason Smith ranks a half-decent 52nd among NBA power forwards in defensive RPM (That's really about 45th once you weed out the real low-minute guys above him). His DRPM is a +0.53. That ranks him about the same as guys like Motiejunas, Marvin Williams, Mirotic, and Brendan Bass; and way better than guys like Ilyasova, Ryan Anderson, Kris Humphries, Terrence Jones and Bobby Portis.

He's also a pretty deadly midrange shooter, hitting 48% of his shots from 16-22 feet with a very high percentage of his shots coming from that range (62%). Among the 33 guys who shot 100 or more midrange shots last year, he had the 6th highest shooting percentage and the highest per-minute volume:



So basically, we're getting a real solid pick-and-pop threat on offense who doesn't kill us on defense.

I guess sort of the Songaila role. When he was healthy, Songaila was 2nd on the depth chart, was usually a rotation player, was a pretty tough player, and still he didn't contribute all that much, and his contract became an albatross. Smith seems to be coming in as the 5th big, and that seems a lot to pay for someone whose role doesn't seem to be well defined.

[payitforward]

Averages for all NBA bigs (i.e. a 4 or 5) vs. Jason Smith last year

TS%
Average: 54.5%
Jason: 51.3%

Boards (per 48)
Average: 12.2
Jason: 8.9

Fouls (per 48)
Average: 4.9
Jason: 6.6

Free Throw Attempts (per 48)
Average: 5.1
Jason: 2.7

Points off FT shooting (per 48)
Average: 3.61
Jason: 2.18

Points (per 48)
Average: 15.9 (per 48)
Jason: 20
Ok -- finally a happy fact! Jason Smith scores 4.1 more points shooting the ball than an average big. That's a good thing, right?

Shots (per 48)
Average: 15.6
Jason: 20.4
Uh oh, 4.8 more shots. So, his eFG% to get the extra 4.1 points is 42.7% -- the average eFG% of a big is 50.8%.

If you pull out what he does best, that must mean the rest of what he does is truly truly awful. In any case, the net is a very very bad player signed to a 3-year boat anchor contract.




Average:
Jason:

[nate33]

I'm not going to sit here and argue that Jason Smith is a good player, but I think those numbers need a bit more context. Yes, it would be nice of Jason Smith had a TS% higher than average, but there is a benefit to having a guy put up a slightly below-average TS% if he can do it from the perimeter like that. It creates more spacing which may result in other guys posting better numbers. These are the intangibles that don't always show up in stats.

Shooting matters. A guy like J.J. Redick helps his team on every possession, even when he doesn't touch the ball. Jason Smith may have an element of that to his game as well. It's notable that he has had a roughly flat or positive on/off differential every year except for a disastrous year in New York in 2014/15.

[Dat2U]

I'm not going to sit here and argue that Jason Smith is a good player, but I think those numbers need a bit more context. Yes, it would be nice of Jason Smith had a TS% higher than average, but there is a benefit to having a guy put up a slightly below-average TS% if he can do it from the perimeter like that. It creates more spacing which may result in other guys posting better numbers. These are the intangibles that don't always show up in stats.

Shooting matters. A guy like J.J. Redick helps his team on every possession, even when he doesn't touch the ball. Jason Smith may have an element of that to his game as well. It's notable that he has had a roughly flat or positive on/off differential every year except for a disastrous year in New York in 2014/15.

But defenses happily give up mid-range shots nowadays. Kris Humphries was also a great mid-range shooter but he could always be found wide open to the left or right of the key. Teams were consistently worse off on offense while Kris was on the floor.

For Smith to help spacing wise, teams actually have to be willing to guard him. The positive difference b/w Hump & Smith is that Smith seems willing to let it fly a little more so he might be regarded as more of a threat on offense and secondly, Smith mostly plays the C position while Kris continues to fail as a PF so it's not as big as a drag that he's got limited offensive utility.

While I see them as similar players, I don't think Smith is as bad as Hump but Hump also only got a 1 yr - 4 mil deal. Both are ideally 3rd string types though.

[payitforward]

I'm not going to sit here and argue that Jason Smith is a good player, but I think those numbers need a bit more context. Yes, it would be nice of Jason Smith had a TS% higher than average, but there is a benefit to having a guy put up a slightly below-average TS% if he can do it from the perimeter like that. It creates more spacing which may result in other guys posting better numbers. These are the intangibles that don't always show up in stats.
Shooting matters. A guy like J.J. Redick helps his team on every possession, even when he doesn't touch the ball. Jason Smith may have an element of that to his game as well. It's notable that he has had a roughly flat or positive on/off differential every year except for a disastrous year in New York in 2014/15.

I'm going to differ with you, nate, but first I want to say that this is a classic off-season discussion! Man am I ready for training camp to start, but it's still weeks and weeks away.

By definition, so-called "intangibles" of the kind you describe don't show up in a player's stats; if they did they wouldn't be intangible. But in that case, they have to show up in other players' stats -- the guys who are on the floor when he is. Otherwise, they can't provide any benefit at all. Now I imagine it'd be possible to dig deep into that in Jason's case, but not for me. And I don't think it's worth it anyway -- not even in the off season.

Ditto for Redick. But here's the difference: J.J. Redick is a well above average shooting guard all on his own. Just for starters, an average SG posts a 53.8% TS%. Redick's was 63.2% last year, which is unbelievably great. Only 2 other guards in the entire league posted .60 or above (Can you guess who they are? Hint: they're brothers! ). The "intangibles" are a plus on top of that.

What I said about Jason Smith was that if you pull out that mid-range shooting stat, the thing he does well and which presumably also provides intangibles via spacing, and look at the rest of his numbers leaving that good thing out, the rest of what he does must be utterly abysmal for his overall productivity numbers to be so low.

That's just simple arithmetic, nothing more. And, when he's on the floor, there's no way to get the benefits of what he does well without getting beaten up by everything else he does and does way badly. It's not possible.

[payitforward]

...which is why it might not have been a good idea to give him $16m of guaranteed money.

[I_Like_Dirt]

I agree, PIF. Smith is a below average NBA big and not a very good player. To be honest, though, that's pretty much what you expect from your 5th/6th bigs. The real problem is the money and years more so than the fact that he's a bad player relative other NBA players. And yeah, that's probably like $3 million per season or whatever under the old salary cap, but those contracts under the old salary cap also weren't desirable when attached to bad players.

I think the real issue here was Ernie's desire to spend a certain amount in free agency. He basically missed on his chances to land guys that would have cost the entire amount of cap space and then was left with another amount he was basically going to use on a veteran, because he loves veterans. However once the allstars passed on the Wizards, it made his job much trickier, because he doesn't offer a winning team, he doesn't offer top end stars to play with, and he doesn't even have a starting spot to offer because he's already plugged them all. The results were relatively predictable. The only veteran with any halfway decent track record to speak of who signed was Mahinmi - a player suited to playing ~24 mpg anyway and Ernie was basically left just signing veteran backups for the sake of signing veteran backups who wanted the money afterwards, because he was never going to land a guy like Biyombo last year or Sullinger this year on a bargain 1-year deal since they have no way to showcase their talents without an obvious starting/timeshare (mostly for Cs who often play slightly fewer minutes) spot for them. Ernie is really "good" at signing veterans for the sake of signing veterans, too. Just ask their agents.

[Ruzious]

In a desperate attempt to find a positive about the signing, I note that Jason Smith ranks a half-decent 52nd among NBA power forwards in defensive RPM (That's really about 45th once you weed out the real low-minute guys above him). His DRPM is a +0.53. That ranks him about the same as guys like Motiejunas, Marvin Williams, Mirotic, and Brendan Bass; and way better than guys like Ilyasova, Ryan Anderson, Kris Humphries, Terrence Jones and Bobby Portis.

He's also a pretty deadly midrange shooter, hitting 48% of his shots from 16-22 feet with a very high percentage of his shots coming from that range (62%). Among the 33 guys who shot 100 or more midrange shots last year, he had the 6th highest shooting percentage and the highest per-minute volume:



So basically, we're getting a real solid pick-and-pop threat on offense who doesn't kill us on defense.

There we go. I knew there was a most excellent post that suggested Smith isn't a total disaster defensively at PF (not that he's good by any stretch). Again, I expect he'll get more minutes at PF than C - though obviously if Gortat or Mahinmi get injured, that'll change. Some might say, the fewer minutes he plays, the healthier the Wiz will be.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

Jason Smith is TRASH. He's not even better than Humphries and we gave him away for nothing.

[Dat2U]

In a desperate attempt to find a positive about the signing, I note that Jason Smith ranks a half-decent 52nd among NBA power forwards in defensive RPM (That's really about 45th once you weed out the real low-minute guys above him). His DRPM is a +0.53. That ranks him about the same as guys like Motiejunas, Marvin Williams, Mirotic, and Brendan Bass; and way better than guys like Ilyasova, Ryan Anderson, Kris Humphries, Terrence Jones and Bobby Portis.

He's also a pretty deadly midrange shooter, hitting 48% of his shots from 16-22 feet with a very high percentage of his shots coming from that range (62%). Among the 33 guys who shot 100 or more midrange shots last year, he had the 6th highest shooting percentage and the highest per-minute volume:



So basically, we're getting a real solid pick-and-pop threat on offense who doesn't kill us on defense.

There we go. I knew there was a most excellent post that suggested Smith isn't a total disaster defensively at PF (not that he's good by any stretch). Again, I expect he'll get more minutes at PF than C - though obviously if Gortat or Mahinmi get injured, that'll change. Some might say, the fewer minutes he plays, the healthier the Wiz will be.

Yeah lets just ignore the fact he played C in nearly all the lineups last year and whenever he's played the PF position, its been a disaster. He's an upgrade to Humphries if he's playing C and arguably a downgrade if were asking him to defend 4s and attempt to space the floor. Hump was a great example of an excellent mid-range shooter who couldn't space the floor because a mid-range jumper is still the most inefficient shot in basketball and good defenses strive to encourage those type of shots.

[AFM]

How many minutes are we expecting this cat to play tho fam? I don't see how he plays more than 5 MPG.

[Ruzious]

How many minutes are we expecting this cat to play tho fam? I don't see how he plays more than 5 MPG.

Hopefully, not enough to justify a 3/16 deal. Ooo, we can call him Jason 3:16.

[AFM]

Set to the "Spiderman" theme:

Jason Smith, Jason Smith
Angers everyone he plays with
Jason Smith! Jason Smith!
He can't shoot for chit, his legs are stiff!
Watch out!
Here comes the Jason Turd...

[pineappleheadindc]

.

Three. Year. Contract.

[dangermouse]

Dream scenario:

Seattle gets an expansion team next year.

In the expansion draft we can offer up Smith and hope that they take him and his contract off our hands.

I'd throw in a 2nd rounder.