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How long until the Wiz blow it up?

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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#41 » by Alex DeLarge » Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:18 pm

stitches wrote:I think you are underestimating Favors' value CONSIDERABLY. Favors is one of the top two way big men in the league and he just turned 25, while Gortat is going into his mid-30s. When adjusted for pace they are not really all that close:

Image

You are welcome to post this trade on the trades and transaction board and see what the rest of the league thinks about this comparison. I think the difference trade-value-wise between Favors->Wall is much smaller than the difference between Gortat->Favors.


I would agree with this.

Favors is a blue chip.
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#42 » by payitforward » Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:38 pm

Ruzious wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:Ruz, They have to cash in on either Nurkic or Jokic as they are both Centers. I'll take either though i prefer Nurkic.

I think that team is a playoff team in the West and they then have Faried, Chandler, Harris, Murray and picks to make another trade for a stud wing.

I agree with you there on Nurkic and Jokic. They're too similar to make it smart for them to keep both. I like Nurkic, because he's ridiculously strong and can bully people around. Maybe Mahinmi can teach him some defense. If he can keep his turnovers down, he can be an all-star. You might be on to something there. I like including Juancho in the trade as a developing shooting PF.

Makes great sense. I'd love to do that deal. But... there's no big hurry to cash in one of those guys; they are both likely to be worth more in a year.

Also, as tontoz has pointed out, trading Wall would mean admitting failure; the whole (so-called) plan would have failed. Ernie ain't admitting his failure, and if Ted decides the plan has failed, Ernie will be gone.

It looks like it'll be the next GM (should we ever be so lucky as to move on) who will move Wall. Unless of course he demands a trade!
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#43 » by payitforward » Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:42 pm

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:I'd trade Gortat for a pick in the top half of the first round. I don't see Boston giving up one of their Brooklyn picks, but maybe that 2019 Memphis pick might make sense. Gasol and Conley will be pretty long in the tooth by then and they might not be playoff contenders.

I think Gortat just might bring back one of the C's Brooklyn picks, nate. With Gortat, the Celtics become significantly better right now -- for sure the 2d best team in the EC. So they could think of it along the lines of the present value of money. I.e. $5 now might be better than $10 later.

Not saying this would happen, or even that I'd do it were I Ainge. But I might; I can certainly see the arguments for it.

Maybe the Celtics could slap top 7 protection on the pick, or something.

Possible I suppose -- but it's a little hard, if they are taking a good starting Center, to demand that the other team take that kind of chance. Especially since they don't have an equivalent pick the following year to offer as the fall back.
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#44 » by payitforward » Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:44 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Lightning struck today.

Burke & Porter consistently playing like they did against Boston can change a whole lot.

I'll say! But *nobody* plays consistently at that level! :)
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#45 » by payitforward » Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:55 pm

stitches wrote:I think you are underestimating Favors' value CONSIDERABLY. Favors is one of the top two way big men in the league and he just turned 25, while Gortat is going into his mid-30s. When adjusted for pace they are not really all that close:

Image

You are welcome to post this trade on the trades and transaction board and see what the rest of the league thinks about this comparison. I think the difference trade-value-wise between Favors->Wall is much smaller than the difference between Gortat->Favors.

So... what you're saying is that Favors' 1.7 more FGs, which it takes him 5.1 more FGAs to get, makes him better than Gortat? Or is it his way fewer rebounds that make him better?

He does get to the line more than Marcin -- so, with that in mind, it's his lower TS% that puts Favors above Gortat?

Talk about over-valuing a player! Favors is definitely good, very good, and his best years may be in front of him -- though he's been in the league a long time, so I'm not as sure of that as I would be in re: a 25 year old who was only in his 4th year. But right now, sorry, he's not as productive as Marcin Gortat.
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#46 » by SMTBSI » Thu Nov 10, 2016 11:04 pm

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:Maybe the Celtics could slap top 7 protection on the pick, or something.

Possible I suppose -- but it's a little hard, if they are taking a good starting Center, to demand that the other team take that kind of chance. Especially since they don't have an equivalent pick the following year to offer as the fall back.

Again, unfortunately, not possible. You cannot re-trade a pick with additional conditions above and beyond whatever it had when you traded for it.

The only thing we can trade is the full '16 BOS/BRK swap right. Meaning whatever team we traded it to would have the unencumbered right to the better of the BOS and BRK '16 1sts, and BRK would get the lesser.

Just, nothing that can be done to fiddle with the value on that one, unfortunately.
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#47 » by stitches » Thu Nov 10, 2016 11:49 pm

payitforward wrote:
stitches wrote:I think you are underestimating Favors' value CONSIDERABLY. Favors is one of the top two way big men in the league and he just turned 25, while Gortat is going into his mid-30s. When adjusted for pace they are not really all that close:

Image

You are welcome to post this trade on the trades and transaction board and see what the rest of the league thinks about this comparison. I think the difference trade-value-wise between Favors->Wall is much smaller than the difference between Gortat->Favors.

So... what you're saying is that Favors' 1.7 more FGs, which it takes him 5.1 more FGAs to get, makes him better than Gortat? Or is it his way fewer rebounds that make him better?

He does get to the line more than Marcin -- so, with that in mind, it's his lower TS% that puts Favors above Gortat?

Talk about over-valuing a player! Favors is definitely good, very good, and his best years may be in front of him -- though he's been in the league a long time, so I'm not as sure of that as I would be in re: a 25 year old who was only in his 4th year. But right now, sorry, he's not as productive as Marcin Gortat.


No, I'm saying Gortat CANNOT get to this number of looks without significantly losing efficiency. If he could, he would... if he could, your coach would be stupid not to give them to him. At the moment Gortat is primarily a PnR big who does little else on offense because he CANNOT do more on offense efficiently(example - iso 1.1% of his possession, spotups - 1.6% of his possessions, postups - 15% of his possessions). In other words - Gortat's usage of 18% suggests he is a role player who relies on others to create offense for him and the looks he gets are primarily high percentage looks, while avoiding to take the tough shots, which is alright since you have other players to take them.

Favors' usage is about 24%. He is one of the main offensive players for us and is used in variety of ways in our offense. He gets isos and is good at them, he gets post ups, he gets pnr, he gets spot ups. He is relied to create offense for his team. He is relied to take the tough shots. This drops his efficiency, but he still manages to post above average efficiency numbers.

Also, Gortat is playing 5 for you, while Favors is playing 4 for us and Gortat is not playing along with one of the best rebounders in the league. So the rebounding numbers say very little about their rebounding prowess. Stats without context are nothing.

Favors is also a much better defender and rim protector...
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#48 » by gesa2 » Fri Nov 11, 2016 1:45 am

stitches wrote:
No, I'm saying Gortat CANNOT get to this number of looks without significantly losing efficiency. If he could, he would... if he could, your coach would be stupid not to give them to him. At the moment Gortat is primarily a PnR big who does little else on offense because he CANNOT do more on offense efficiently(example - iso 1.1% of his possession, spotups - 1.6% of his possessions, postups - 15% of his possessions). In other words - Gortat's usage of 18% suggests he is a role player who relies on others to create offense for him and the looks he gets are primarily high percentage looks, while avoiding to take the tough shots, which is alright since you have other players to take them.

Favors' usage is about 24%. He is one of the main offensive players for us and is used in variety of ways in our offense. He gets isos and is good at them, he gets post ups, he gets pnr, he gets spot ups. He is relied to create offense for his team. He is relied to take the tough shots. This drops his efficiency, but he still manages to post above average efficiency numbers.

Also, Gortat is playing 5 for you, while Favors is playing 4 for us and Gortat is not playing along with one of the best rebounders in the league. So the rebounding numbers say very little about their rebounding prowess. Stats without context are nothing.

Favors is also a much better defender and rim protector...


Agreed. I proposed a Wall for Favors and extra parts last Summer.
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#49 » by Dat2U » Fri Nov 11, 2016 2:55 am

gesa2 wrote:
stitches wrote:
No, I'm saying Gortat CANNOT get to this number of looks without significantly losing efficiency. If he could, he would... if he could, your coach would be stupid not to give them to him. At the moment Gortat is primarily a PnR big who does little else on offense because he CANNOT do more on offense efficiently(example - iso 1.1% of his possession, spotups - 1.6% of his possessions, postups - 15% of his possessions). In other words - Gortat's usage of 18% suggests he is a role player who relies on others to create offense for him and the looks he gets are primarily high percentage looks, while avoiding to take the tough shots, which is alright since you have other players to take them.

Favors' usage is about 24%. He is one of the main offensive players for us and is used in variety of ways in our offense. He gets isos and is good at them, he gets post ups, he gets pnr, he gets spot ups. He is relied to create offense for his team. He is relied to take the tough shots. This drops his efficiency, but he still manages to post above average efficiency numbers.

Also, Gortat is playing 5 for you, while Favors is playing 4 for us and Gortat is not playing along with one of the best rebounders in the league. So the rebounding numbers say very little about their rebounding prowess. Stats without context are nothing.

Favors is also a much better defender and rim protector...


Agreed. I proposed a Wall for Favors and extra parts last Summer.


I didn't like the trade then and I still don't like it now. Favors is a solid PF but I don't think he's an all-star caliber player, just a good one. He looks the part with his physical tools and size but I never thought he played to his athletic gifts.

I'd like Favors on the roster but as the Jazz fan stated, they'd only be interested in Wall and IMO that's swapping a top of the line deck chair for a very nice deck chair. That serves little purpose but to speed up the rebuilding process... with Favors likely walking out the door in less than two years.
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#50 » by pcbothwel » Fri Nov 11, 2016 3:03 am

stitches wrote:No, I'm saying Gortat CANNOT get to this number of looks without significantly losing efficiency. If he could, he would... if he could, your coach would be stupid not to give them to him. At the moment Gortat is primarily a PnR big who does little else on offense because he CANNOT do more on offense efficiently(example - iso 1.1% of his possession, spotups - 1.6% of his possessions, postups - 15% of his possessions). In other words - Gortat's usage of 18% suggests he is a role player who relies on others to create offense for him and the looks he gets are primarily high percentage looks, while avoiding to take the tough shots, which is alright since you have other players to take them.

Favors' usage is about 24%. He is one of the main offensive players for us and is used in variety of ways in our offense. He gets isos and is good at them, he gets post ups, he gets pnr, he gets spot ups. He is relied to create offense for his team. He is relied to take the tough shots. This drops his efficiency, but he still manages to post above average efficiency numbers.

Also, Gortat is playing 5 for you, while Favors is playing 4 for us and Gortat is not playing along with one of the best rebounders in the league. So the rebounding numbers say very little about their rebounding prowess. Stats without context are nothing.

Favors is also a much better defender and rim protector...


1) Gortat has had a higher DRPM and DWS each of the last 3 years. So im not sure how you get to "Much better defender and rim protector"

2) I know Gortat plays the 5 and Favors the 4. The point is that you will need a highly effective big off the bench and Withey is a UFA

3) Favors has one year left after this year and Hill / Hayward are bigger priorites to resign so...
What does a PF/C going into his eighth year, with no AS appearances and an expiring contract get you?
Can you really say he is that much better than Robin Lopez or Enes Kanter?
Ibaka might be your best comparison, but Ibaka was viewed as a better player who could spread the floor a little from the PF position. Orlando Overpaid (SI gave OKC an A and ORL a C-, CBS a A and B, ABC a B+ and C, etc)
They gave up Oladipo and the #11 pick (Albeit a weaker class).
Again, I dont see how Gortat + (Morris/protected 1st) is a poor return in the summer of 2017, but oh well
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#51 » by stitches » Fri Nov 11, 2016 6:56 am

pcbothwel wrote:
stitches wrote:No, I'm saying Gortat CANNOT get to this number of looks without significantly losing efficiency. If he could, he would... if he could, your coach would be stupid not to give them to him. At the moment Gortat is primarily a PnR big who does little else on offense because he CANNOT do more on offense efficiently(example - iso 1.1% of his possession, spotups - 1.6% of his possessions, postups - 15% of his possessions). In other words - Gortat's usage of 18% suggests he is a role player who relies on others to create offense for him and the looks he gets are primarily high percentage looks, while avoiding to take the tough shots, which is alright since you have other players to take them.

Favors' usage is about 24%. He is one of the main offensive players for us and is used in variety of ways in our offense. He gets isos and is good at them, he gets post ups, he gets pnr, he gets spot ups. He is relied to create offense for his team. He is relied to take the tough shots. This drops his efficiency, but he still manages to post above average efficiency numbers.

Also, Gortat is playing 5 for you, while Favors is playing 4 for us and Gortat is not playing along with one of the best rebounders in the league. So the rebounding numbers say very little about their rebounding prowess. Stats without context are nothing.

Favors is also a much better defender and rim protector...


1) Gortat has had a higher DRPM and DWS each of the last 3 years. So im not sure how you get to "Much better defender and rim protector"

2) I know Gortat plays the 5 and Favors the 4. The point is that you will need a highly effective big off the bench and Withey is a UFA

3) Favors has one year left after this year and Hill / Hayward are bigger priorites to resign so...
What does a PF/C going into his eighth year, with no AS appearances and an expiring contract get you?
Can you really say he is that much better than Robin Lopez or Enes Kanter?
Ibaka might be your best comparison, but Ibaka was viewed as a better player who could spread the floor a little from the PF position. Orlando Overpaid (SI gave OKC an A and ORL a C-, CBS a A and B, ABC a B+ and C, etc)
They gave up Oladipo and the #11 pick (Albeit a weaker class).
Again, I dont see how Gortat + (Morris/protected 1st) is a poor return in the summer of 2017, but oh well


WTF? Can I say he's much better than Robin Lopez? Or Enes Kanter? You cannot possibly be serious? Have you ever watched any of them play? Favors is an all star the moment he gets to an Eastern conference team. None of those are even in the conversation.

Favors is a top 30 players in the league. You don't trade top 30 player in the league for a back up 5 FFS!!! Do I need to say those things really? This is insanity. This is horrific return for Favors. This is a fireable offense if any front office does that trade.
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#52 » by queridiculo » Fri Nov 11, 2016 10:57 am

The Wizards aren't going to trade Wall for Favors, your echo chamber delusions about Favors value aren't going to change that.
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#53 » by krii » Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:40 pm

Favors is great and I'd love to have him in the roster but Favors for Wall trade? hell no.
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#54 » by JAR69 » Fri Nov 11, 2016 3:50 pm

SMTBSI wrote:
payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:Maybe the Celtics could slap top 7 protection on the pick, or something.

Possible I suppose -- but it's a little hard, if they are taking a good starting Center, to demand that the other team take that kind of chance. Especially since they don't have an equivalent pick the following year to offer as the fall back.

Again, unfortunately, not possible. You cannot re-trade a pick with additional conditions above and beyond whatever it had when you traded for it.

The only thing we can trade is the full '16 BOS/BRK swap right. Meaning whatever team we traded it to would have the unencumbered right to the better of the BOS and BRK '16 1sts, and BRK would get the lesser.

Just, nothing that can be done to fiddle with the value on that one, unfortunately.


Is it possible to do a swap on top of a swap? I was thinking about Gortat for Boston's own 2018 first round pick (or maybe the 2017 Minnesota second round pick) and the Wizards get the right to swap their 2017 pick for the Brooklyn 2017 pick. If the Wizards are blowing it up, that will almost certainly be top 10.

The swap part might also work as a swap for Brooklyn's 2018 pick.
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#55 » by SMTBSI » Fri Nov 11, 2016 8:15 pm

JAR69 wrote:
SMTBSI wrote:
payitforward wrote:Possible I suppose -- but it's a little hard, if they are taking a good starting Center, to demand that the other team take that kind of chance. Especially since they don't have an equivalent pick the following year to offer as the fall back.

Again, unfortunately, not possible. You cannot re-trade a pick with additional conditions above and beyond whatever it had when you traded for it.

The only thing we can trade is the full '16 BOS/BRK swap right. Meaning whatever team we traded it to would have the unencumbered right to the better of the BOS and BRK '16 1sts, and BRK would get the lesser.

Just, nothing that can be done to fiddle with the value on that one, unfortunately.


Is it possible to do a swap on top of a swap? I was thinking about Gortat for Boston's own 2018 first round pick (or maybe the 2017 Minnesota second round pick) and the Wizards get the right to swap their 2017 pick for the Brooklyn 2017 pick. If the Wizards are blowing it up, that will almost certainly be top 10.

The swap part might also work as a swap for Brooklyn's 2018 pick.

Good question. My impression is that there's no reason that couldn't be done, so long as the trade doesn't retroactively affect Brooklyn. So, tie the three picks up in one big package where Brooklyn gets the lesser of the BRK and BOS 1sts, WAS gets the highest of the three, and Boston gets the pick that is left-over.

Whether we'd do that or not, I couldn't say. My intuition is that since the NBA is about top-tier talent, we wouldn't want to even risk losing out on a chance at BRK jumping into a top spot for a (very high quality) role-player. But, who knows. It's definitely a creative approach.
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#56 » by CobraCommander » Sat Nov 12, 2016 4:17 am

queridiculo wrote:The Wizards aren't going to trade Wall for Favors, your echo chamber delusions about Favors value aren't going to change that.



Totally agree. Favors is a good player but NO ONE IS COMING TO THE GYM TO WATCH HIM PLAY. Favors doesnt have any box office appeal. For all of you that dont get that basketball is a business...wake up. John may not have a ton of box office appeal but he has SOME. Favors could walk into an NBA arena and not get recognized.

Now when it comes to his game... I dont see trading Wall for Favors changing our fortune much more than it has changed the Jazz.

The wiz need to move Wall before his contract expires because He is OUT...
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#57 » by payitforward » Sat Nov 12, 2016 9:51 pm

stitches wrote:
payitforward wrote:
stitches wrote:I think you are underestimating Favors' value CONSIDERABLY. Favors is one of the top two way big men in the league and he just turned 25, while Gortat is going into his mid-30s. When adjusted for pace they are not really all that close:

Image

You are welcome to post this trade on the trades and transaction board and see what the rest of the league thinks about this comparison. I think the difference trade-value-wise between Favors->Wall is much smaller than the difference between Gortat->Favors.

So... what you're saying is that Favors' 1.7 more FGs, which it takes him 5.1 more FGAs to get, makes him better than Gortat? Or is it his way fewer rebounds that make him better?

He does get to the line more than Marcin -- so, with that in mind, it's his lower TS% that puts Favors above Gortat?

Talk about over-valuing a player! Favors is definitely good, very good, and his best years may be in front of him -- though he's been in the league a long time, so I'm not as sure of that as I would be in re: a 25 year old who was only in his 4th year. But right now, sorry, he's not as productive as Marcin Gortat.


No, I'm saying Gortat CANNOT get to this number of looks without significantly losing efficiency. If he could, he would... if he could, your coach would be stupid not to give them to him. At the moment Gortat is primarily a PnR big who does little else on offense because he CANNOT do more on offense efficiently(example - iso 1.1% of his possession, spotups - 1.6% of his possessions, postups - 15% of his possessions). In other words - Gortat's usage of 18% suggests he is a role player who relies on others to create offense for him and the looks he gets are primarily high percentage looks, while avoiding to take the tough shots, which is alright since you have other players to take them.

Favors' usage is about 24%. He is one of the main offensive players for us and is used in variety of ways in our offense. He gets isos and is good at them, he gets post ups, he gets pnr, he gets spot ups. He is relied to create offense for his team. He is relied to take the tough shots. This drops his efficiency, but he still manages to post above average efficiency numbers.

Also, Gortat is playing 5 for you, while Favors is playing 4 for us and Gortat is not playing along with one of the best rebounders in the league. So the rebounding numbers say very little about their rebounding prowess. Stats without context are nothing.

Favors is also a much better defender and rim protector...

That's a very imaginative narrative, thanks. It's based on

a) your certain knowledge that Gortat would shoot 33% or less on 5.1 extra FGAs. You get this knowledge from... nowhere. That is, you make it up based on the statistical fact that increasing usage has a negative effect on efficiency. Doesn't cut it, or -- if you think it does -- go take a course on statistics.

b) your certain knowledge that Favors gets fewer rebounds because someone else gets more rebounds. You get this knowledge from... nowhere. You made it up.

Derrick Favors is a very good player. Not at question. He's just not as good as Marcin Gortat is all.
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#58 » by stitches » Sat Nov 12, 2016 10:28 pm

payitforward wrote:That's a very imaginative narrative, thanks. It's based on

a) your certain knowledge that Gortat would shoot 33% or less on 5.1 extra FGAs. You get this knowledge from... nowhere. That is, you make it up based on the statistical fact that increasing usage has a negative effect on efficiency. Doesn't cut it, or -- if you think it does -- go take a course on statistics.

I didn't say he will shoot 33% or less on 5.1. extra FGAs(he might or he might not, he might shoot even lower%). I said his efficiency will significantly decrease(by how much I don't know, it will depend on how he does on high volume ISOs and post ups). And it has to do both with the number of extra FGAs and (mainly) the TYPE of FGAs he will have to get to get to this number. In the flow of an offense, teams try to create high efficiency looks. Those are relatively stable as a number for a team and you cannot go over some number of those good looks simply because NBA offenses are not perfect, they make mistakes, NBA defenses deny certain opportunities and so on... and for the rest of the team's possessions(lets call those broken plays) you need players who are able to create a relatively good shot on ball(that's usually isos, pnr ballhandler and post up possessions). Those are generally lower efficiency shots than the other type that come from executing the offense(cuts, spot ups, hand offs, off screen). The type of shots Gortat gets are mainly the high-efficiency shots(only about 16% of Gortat's possessions are low-efficiency possessions). The reason he won't keep the same efficiency is simply because there won't be more high efficiency shots for him. The number for the team is tentatively capped. If they could give him more of those they would. They would be crazy not to give them more since he's scoring at >59% TS% on those. This means that if you want to increase the number of shots he takes you need to give him some of the harder shots - meaning when your offensive possession breaks, you don't go to Wall or Beal to create a shot with expiring clock for you, you go to Gortat and give him an ISO or a post up. This is part of what Favors does for us and he does it well enough to post above average efficiency with 24-25% USG%. Could Gortat do the same? I don't know. Maybe he could. But he sure as hell won't keep his efficiency at 59% TS%. There is about 0 chance he does that. If he did, he'd be Karl Towns, not ... Gortat.

payitforward wrote:b) your certain knowledge that Favors gets fewer rebounds because someone else gets more rebounds. You get this knowledge from... nowhere. You made it up.

I get it from previous seasons when he played the 5 and was posting 15-16RBS per 100 possessions, which is what Gortat is posting now. Favors' drop in RBS came when he moved to the 4 and started playing major minutes with great rebounders like Gobert and Kanter.

payitforward wrote:Derrick Favors is a very good player. Not at question. He's just not as good as Marcin Gortat is all.


Derrick Favors is not as good as Gortat? Are you **** serious? This is insanity. :crazy:
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#59 » by babyjax13 » Sun Nov 13, 2016 4:48 pm

payitforward wrote:
stitches wrote:
payitforward wrote:So... what you're saying is that Favors' 1.7 more FGs, which it takes him 5.1 more FGAs to get, makes him better than Gortat? Or is it his way fewer rebounds that make him better?

He does get to the line more than Marcin -- so, with that in mind, it's his lower TS% that puts Favors above Gortat?

Talk about over-valuing a player! Favors is definitely good, very good, and his best years may be in front of him -- though he's been in the league a long time, so I'm not as sure of that as I would be in re: a 25 year old who was only in his 4th year. But right now, sorry, he's not as productive as Marcin Gortat.


No, I'm saying Gortat CANNOT get to this number of looks without significantly losing efficiency. If he could, he would... if he could, your coach would be stupid not to give them to him. At the moment Gortat is primarily a PnR big who does little else on offense because he CANNOT do more on offense efficiently(example - iso 1.1% of his possession, spotups - 1.6% of his possessions, postups - 15% of his possessions). In other words - Gortat's usage of 18% suggests he is a role player who relies on others to create offense for him and the looks he gets are primarily high percentage looks, while avoiding to take the tough shots, which is alright since you have other players to take them.

Favors' usage is about 24%. He is one of the main offensive players for us and is used in variety of ways in our offense. He gets isos and is good at them, he gets post ups, he gets pnr, he gets spot ups. He is relied to create offense for his team. He is relied to take the tough shots. This drops his efficiency, but he still manages to post above average efficiency numbers.

Also, Gortat is playing 5 for you, while Favors is playing 4 for us and Gortat is not playing along with one of the best rebounders in the league. So the rebounding numbers say very little about their rebounding prowess. Stats without context are nothing.

Favors is also a much better defender and rim protector...

That's a very imaginative narrative, thanks. It's based on

a) your certain knowledge that Gortat would shoot 33% or less on 5.1 extra FGAs. You get this knowledge from... nowhere. That is, you make it up based on the statistical fact that increasing usage has a negative effect on efficiency. Doesn't cut it, or -- if you think it does -- go take a course on statistics.

b) your certain knowledge that Favors gets fewer rebounds because someone else gets more rebounds. You get this knowledge from... nowhere. You made it up.

Derrick Favors is a very good player. Not at question. He's just not as good as Marcin Gortat is all.


Gortat is a nice player, certainly comparable on offense in many ways, but Favors is simply more versatile, and a better player overall. Favors has a midrange jumper that Gortat lacks, Favors is better/more efficient at scoring inside (Gortat last season 67% from 0-3 ft, Favors 71% from 0-3 plus has range beyond that). He is more mobile, a better shot blocker, gets more steals, has a higher VORP, is younger, is cheaper, etc. etc. etc. Gortat is better rebounder (well, he might be...if Favors weren't next to Rudy his rebounding rate would probably increase to be about the same or better than Gortat's IMO), and that's about it (I'm sure there are a few other things). None of this is to say that Gortat is not a good player, he certainly is...but he is not as good as Favors, never was and never will be. And we certainly wouldn't be interested in trading for him, because we have Rudy Gobert at center, and Gortat can't play power forward. We also would have zero interest in someone with the history of Markeiff Morris, and it is likely that many other teams would have the same feelings. I think the only way we would trade Favors to the Wizards is if we pooled our assets to get John Wall if he ends up forcing his way out of Washington. Barring that, I can't think of anything else on your roster that would give us a compelling reason to disrupt the chemistry and continuity of our team.

If you don't believe me, I encourage you to take this discussion to the Trades and Transaction board, to see what 'objective' fans think of a Gortat for Favors trade, or take it to the player comparison forum, to see how they match up statistically. Either way, the outcome is going to be pretty rough for Gortat, he just isn't comparable.
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Re: How long until the Wiz blow it up? 

Post#60 » by montestewart » Sun Nov 13, 2016 6:52 pm

For multiple reasons, I don't see a Gortat-Favors trade happening, and hope that a Wall-Favors trade is not in the future. Let's get back to blowing the team up!

What scenarios might shuffle the deck while keeping Wall, Porter, Satoransky, and (why not?) McClellan while landing some reliable inside and downtown scorers, maintaining/improving defense and ball movement, keeping a good balance of youth and veterans, etc. Let's focus on feasible rebuild-on-the-fly or tear-down-and-rebuild scenarios, and pretend someone other than EG is there to successfully execute the plan.

To me, moving Smith should be a primary goal of any of these plans.

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