All Star Prognostications

[nate33]

With the emergence of Bradley Beal, the Wizards now have two potential All-Star nominations.

The way I see it, the following players are sure to win All-Star bids in the East:

guards: Wall, DeRozan
forwards: Lebron, Antetokounmpo, Butler, Love
centers: Horford

So that leaves 3 more guards from the following group:
Lowry, Kyrie, Walker, I.Thomas, Beal, Wade

1 more forward from the following group:
P.George, C.Anthony, Millsap, Porzingis

And 1 more center from the following group:
Porzingis, Whiteside, Drummond, Turner

Who do you think will make it? Will Beal make it?

[tontoz]

I doubt Wall starts given the Wizards record. I expect Lowry and Derozen to be the starters, not just because of their record but also because of the Canada vote.

Beal is iffy because of Derozen/Wade and the strong pgs. Isiah Thomas has been lighting it up. Kemba is getting a lot of hype too. Wall isn't a sure thing.

[nate33]

I doubt Wall starts given the Wizards record. I expect Lowry and Derozen to be the starters, not just because of their record but also because of the Canada vote.

Beal is iffy because of Derozen/Wade and the strong pgs. Isiah Thomas has been lighting it up. Kemba is getting a lot of hype too. Wall isn't a sure thing.

Wall has made it 3 years in a row, he's a fan favorite, and he is having his best year by far. He'll make it. It may well be the case that 5 other guards end up deserving it more than Wall, but in that scenario, he'd still make it over somebody like Kemba Walker or Isaiah Thomas.

I think you make a good point that the Canada vote could result in both Lowry and DeRozan starting. I didn't mean to imply that Wall was a sure-fire starter. Just that I couldn't envision a scenario where he doesn't make it (assuming good health).

[tontoz]

I doubt Wall starts given the Wizards record. I expect Lowry and Derozen to be the starters, not just because of their record but also because of the Canada vote.

Beal is iffy because of Derozen/Wade and the strong pgs. Isiah Thomas has been lighting it up. Kemba is getting a lot of hype too. Wall isn't a sure thing.

Wall has made it 3 years in a row, he's a fan favorite, and he is having his best year by far. He'll make it. It may well be the case that 5 other guards end up deserving it more than Wall, but in that scenario, he'd still make it over somebody like Kemba Walker or Isaiah Thomas.

I think you make a good point that the Canada vote could result in both Lowry and DeRozan starting. I didn't mean to imply that Wall was a sure-fire starter. Just that I couldn't envision a scenario where he doesn't make it (assuming good health).

I am not so sure. Kemba is on Jordan's team which will help him. Isaiah is averaging 27/7 with an ORTG of 120.

Winning matters to the coaches much more than the fans voting. I think it will be close.

[Dark Faze]

The only way Wall gets in is if the record gets above .500

He won't make it over Isaiah--numbers and record are too good. He can take Kemba's spot if his record is close enough. Wall really needs to get above .500 in order to make the team. If he's below .500 I don't see it, despite his numbers being great.

[nate33]

I doubt Wall starts given the Wizards record. I expect Lowry and Derozen to be the starters, not just because of their record but also because of the Canada vote.

Beal is iffy because of Derozen/Wade and the strong pgs. Isiah Thomas has been lighting it up. Kemba is getting a lot of hype too. Wall isn't a sure thing.

Wall has made it 3 years in a row, he's a fan favorite, and he is having his best year by far. He'll make it. It may well be the case that 5 other guards end up deserving it more than Wall, but in that scenario, he'd still make it over somebody like Kemba Walker or Isaiah Thomas.

I think you make a good point that the Canada vote could result in both Lowry and DeRozan starting. I didn't mean to imply that Wall was a sure-fire starter. Just that I couldn't envision a scenario where he doesn't make it (assuming good health).

I am not so sure. Kemba is on Jordan's team which will help him. Isaiah is averaging 27/7 with an ORTG of 120.

Winning matters to the coaches much more than the fans voting. I think it will be close.

Wall is ahead of Kemba at this juncture. Wall gets so many more assists and steals, and his offensive efficiency isn't that much worse (109 versus 113). Also, Wall has a (perhaps undeserved) reputation as an excellent defender. As long as Wall can keep that ORtg above 108 or so, he beats Kemba. He's pretty clearly above Wade too.





They're not going to keep a 24/10 player who is perceived as a good defender out of the All Star game. I don't care how efficient Kemba, Isiah, and Lowry are.

[deneem4]

Wall has made it 3 years in a row, he's a fan favorite, and he is having his best year by far. He'll make it. It may well be the case that 5 other guards end up deserving it more than Wall, but in that scenario, he'd still make it over somebody like Kemba Walker or Isaiah Thomas.

I think you make a good point that the Canada vote could result in both Lowry and DeRozan starting. I didn't mean to imply that Wall was a sure-fire starter. Just that I couldn't envision a scenario where he doesn't make it (assuming good health).

I am not so sure. Kemba is on Jordan's team which will help him. Isaiah is averaging 27/7 with an ORTG of 120.

Winning matters to the coaches much more than the fans voting. I think it will be close.

Wall is ahead of Kemba at this juncture. Wall gets so many more assists and steals, and his offensive efficiency isn't that much worse (109 versus 113). Also, Wall has a (perhaps undeserved) reputation as an excellent defender. As long as Wall can keep that ORtg above 108 or so, he beats Kemba. He's pretty clearly above Wade too.





They're not going to keep a 24/10 player who is perceived as a good defender out of the All Star game. I don't care how efficient Kemba, Isiah, and Lowry are.

^ this exactly only 3 guys are averaging 23+/10 wall is for sure going to start if he can keep those numbers up

[Illmatic12]

The only way Wall gets in is if the record gets above .500

He won't make it over Isaiah--numbers and record are too good. He can take Kemba's spot if his record is close enough. Wall really needs to get above .500 in order to make the team. If he's below .500 I don't see it, despite his numbers being great.

Kemba doesn't have a spot. It would be Kemba taking Wall's perennial AS spot - which I don't think will happen if both teams are only a few games within .500

The coaches, players, and fans all know Wall is a bonafide All-Star.

[Meliorus]

I hope both Wall and Beal don't make the all-star team and they go super angry 2016-Lillard mode.

[Illmatic12]

I doubt Wall starts given the Wizards record. I expect Lowry and Derozen to be the starters, not just because of their record but also because of the Canada vote.

Beal is iffy because of Derozen/Wade and the strong pgs. Isiah Thomas has been lighting it up. Kemba is getting a lot of hype too. Wall isn't a sure thing.

The All-Star process has changed. Fans only have 50% of the vote for starters

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/18311262/players-media-get-votes-all-star-game-fans

So I don't see the Canada thing working as well again.

[keynote]

Kyrie *will* be a starter, based on the strength of the popular vote. He was last year {EDIT--corrected by Kanyewest] has started before and that was before having a splashy Finals performance and winning a ring. He has a popular signature shoe and appears in national commercials for Jeep, Pepsi, Kids Foot Locker, and Cocoa Pebbles. He's an All-Star MVP (a meaningless award on the merits, but an award that gave him some shine nonetheless). And, his team is on national TV a *lot*.

Wall did beat out Kyrie for the starting nod in 2015 -- but that was also the season we had Paul Pierce, and the Wizards were playing under the bright lights of MSG on Christmas Day as a result. Wall's profile is lower this year than it was in 2015; Kyrie's profile is higher.

Lastly: I fear that Wall is starting to get a negative reputation outside of DC. He's ticked off fans in other markets by commenting on their players' salaries. Most of his national press coverage in the "post-Pierce" era has been negative: Wall and Beal beefing; Wall whining about lack of respect; etc. Just the other night in Indiana, the crowd chanted "over-rated" when he was at the line late in the game.

So, I predict Kyrie is a lock to start. Wall's only chance to start is if non-Raptor fans split votes between Lowry and DD -- and I think the odds of that happening are slim. But, I think Wall has a very good chance of getting picked as a reserve, regardless of our record. He'll benefit from inertia and the coaches' understanding that he's hamstrung by a terrible bench.

Beal, OTOH, has little to no chance this year. He'd only get consideration if we go on a ridiculous run that puts us in the top 4 by the time the coaches vote. Even then, he'd be competing for one of the final roster spots with Butler, whichever Raptor guard isn't starting over Wall, Walker, Thomas, and Wade. I don't see the coaches giving the Wizards two slots at the expense of, say, giving the also-good Hornets zero representation, and I'm not sure the coaches will pick newbie Beal over perennial all-star Wade. So, unless he plans on competing in the 3-point shootout, Beal should likely consider himself free to make alternate plans for ASW this year. But, if Beal keeps it up and stays healthy, I think he's a shoo-in for a reserve role in 2017.

[Kanyewest]

Kyrie *will* be a starter, based on the strength of the popular vote. He was last year -- and that was before having a splashy Finals performance and winning a ring. He has a popular signature shoe and appears in national commercials for Jeep, Pepsi, Kids Foot Locker, and Cocoa Pebbles. He's an All-Star MVP (a meaningless award on the merits, but an award that gave him some shine nonetheless). And, his team is on national TV a *lot*.

Wall did beat out Kyrie for the starting nod in 2015 -- but that was also the season we had Paul Pierce, and the Wizards were playing under the bright lights of MSG on Christmas Day as a result. Wall's profile is lower this year than it was in 2015; Kyrie's profile is higher.

Lastly: I fear that Wall is starting to get a negative reputation outside of DC. He's ticked off fans in other markets by commenting on their players' salaries. Most of his national press coverage in the "post-Pierce" era has been negative: Wall and Beal beefing; Wall whining about lack of respect; etc. Just the other night in Indiana, the crowd chanted "over-rated" when he was at the line late in the game.

So, I predict Kyrie is a lock to start. Wall's only chance to start is if non-Raptor fans split votes between Lowry and DD -- and I think the odds of that happening are slim. But, I think Wall has a very good chance of getting picked as a reserve, regardless of our record. He'll benefit from inertia and the coaches' understanding that he's hamstrung by a terrible bench.

Beal, OTOH, has little to no chance this year. He'd only get consideration if we go on a ridiculous run that puts us in the top 4 by the time the coaches vote. Even then, he'd be competing for one of the final roster spots with Butler, whichever Raptor guard isn't starting over Wall, Walker, Thomas, and Wade. I don't see the coaches giving the Wizards two slots at the expense of, say, giving the also-good Hornets zero representation, and I'm not sure the coaches will pick newbie Beal over perennial all-star Wade. So, unless he plans on competing in the 3-point shootout, Beal should likely consider himself free to make alternate plans for ASW this year. But, if Beal keeps it up and stays healthy, I think he's a shoo-in for a reserve role in 2017.

Lowry/Wade started last season. Wall finished 6th among guards and got in because of the coaches' vote. http://www.basketball-reference.com/allstar/NBA_2016_voting.html

I agree Beal's chances are limited unless he has quite a few big games (2-3 more 40 point games) and the Wizards are above .500.

[keynote]

Lowry/Wade started last season.

Good catch. I've made the edit.

[Illmatic12]

Kyrie *will* be a starter, based on the strength of the popular vote. He was last year {EDIT--corrected by Kanyewest] has started before and that was before having a splashy Finals performance and winning a ring. He has a popular signature shoe and appears in national commercials for Jeep, Pepsi, Kids Foot Locker, and Cocoa Pebbles. He's an All-Star MVP (a meaningless award on the merits, but an award that gave him some shine nonetheless). And, his team is on national TV a *lot*.

Wall did beat out Kyrie for the starting nod in 2015 -- but that was also the season we had Paul Pierce, and the Wizards were playing under the bright lights of MSG on Christmas Day as a result. Wall's profile is lower this year than it was in 2015; Kyrie's profile is higher.

Lastly: I fear that Wall is starting to get a negative reputation outside of DC. He's ticked off fans in other markets by commenting on their players' salaries. Most of his national press coverage in the "post-Pierce" era has been negative: Wall and Beal beefing; Wall whining about lack of respect; etc. Just the other night in Indiana, the crowd chanted "over-rated" when he was at the line late in the game.

So, I predict Kyrie is a lock to start. Wall's only chance to start is if non-Raptor fans split votes between Lowry and DD -- and I think the odds of that happening are slim. But, I think Wall has a very good chance of getting picked as a reserve, regardless of our record. He'll benefit from inertia and the coaches' understanding that he's hamstrung by a terrible bench.

Beal, OTOH, has little to no chance this year. He'd only get consideration if we go on a ridiculous run that puts us in the top 4 by the time the coaches vote. Even then, he'd be competing for one of the final roster spots with Butler, whichever Raptor guard isn't starting over Wall, Walker, Thomas, and Wade. I don't see the coaches giving the Wizards two slots at the expense of, say, giving the also-good Hornets zero representation, and I'm not sure the coaches will pick newbie Beal over perennial all-star Wade. So, unless he plans on competing in the 3-point shootout, Beal should likely consider himself free to make alternate plans for ASW this year. But, if Beal keeps it up and stays healthy, I think he's a shoo-in for a reserve role in 2017.

That means nothing. Knicks fans in MSG were chanting 'overrated' at Paul George. And Wall has turned heads with his play, especially the 50pt explosion and I'm sure he'll have more great games between now and ASB. He's widely recognized as a perennial All-Star type player who carries his team

Anyways, there are almost always guys sitting for injury around ASB. So if one or two guys have to sit out then I think after Kemba, Beal would be right there to slide in as an injury reserve.

[tontoz]

I doubt Wall starts given the Wizards record. I expect Lowry and Derozen to be the starters, not just because of their record but also because of the Canada vote.

Beal is iffy because of Derozen/Wade and the strong pgs. Isiah Thomas has been lighting it up. Kemba is getting a lot of hype too. Wall isn't a sure thing.

The All-Star process has changed. Fans only have 50% of the vote for starters

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/18311262/players-media-get-votes-all-star-game-fans

So I don't see the Canada thing working as well again.

Both guys are putting up great numbers on a winning team so they will get plenty of media votes as well. They will easily get more fan votes than Wall. They will probably be starting the AS game barring injury.

The good part about the change is that a popular player who is playing like crap (Kobe for instance) won't be able to be voted in as a starter.

[nuposse04]

Its actually hilarious how guys like Melo are mad at the changes since they know they aren't really superstars anymore

[Ruzious]

Because of the versatility of a lot of the sure all-stars - especially Gianis - you almost don't have to look at position to choose the team - just pick the best 12. But I do think Whiteside and George have to be on the team.

[nate33]

Because of the versatility of a lot of the sure all-stars - especially Gianis - you almost don't have to look at position to choose the team - just pick the best 12. But I do think Whiteside and George have to be on the team.

Yeah, it's too bad they even have position designations. Imagine a lineup with, say, Lebron, Giannis, George, Butler and Millsap. Who's the C? Who's the PG? Who's the SG? Who cares?

[AFM]

We only have one sure fire lock for the ASG and that's Jaysuhn Smiff

[Dark Faze]

The only way Wall gets in is if the record gets above .500

He won't make it over Isaiah--numbers and record are too good. He can take Kemba's spot if his record is close enough. Wall really needs to get above .500 in order to make the team. If he's below .500 I don't see it, despite his numbers being great.

Kemba doesn't have a spot. It would be Kemba taking Wall's perennial AS spot - which I don't think will happen if both teams are only a few games within .500

The coaches, players, and fans all know Wall is a bonafide All-Star.

kembas team has a better record and he has all-star worthy stats

if John wall cant get the wiz above .500 kemba will snatch his spot--it's that simple imo, yes the difference might just be a few games, but "currently in playoffs" is such a huge bullet point for the coaches