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gesa2 wrote:In response to Nate- my prediction of 23 wins is based on what should be one of the 3 worst defenses in the league and my hope that we sell off our older vets for longer term assets. It’s possible Charlotte will completely implode and be worse than us this year but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Why do you think our defense will be one of the 3 worst in the league? We've got good defenders at the point of attack in Jones and Wright. We've got some very good, versatile defensive forwards that can match up with anyone (Deni, Kuzma, Coulibaly). And we have a rim protecting center who is at least a deterrent, albeit not a great rebounder.

The second unit will play lousy defense, but the top 7 guys in the rotation play average-ish defense. I could see them finishing as, say, the 22nd best defense in the league.

I think the bigger problem will be offense.

29 wins, 15th place

26 wins

14th place

25 wins but the most entertaining season in a while.

31 wins
Coulibaly makes rookie first team
At least one of the team's 100+ D league signings turns out to be a diamond in the rough
People will actually start to say nice things about Wiz player development.
Green shoots!

29 wins, 14th in the East.

nate33 wrote:

gesa2 wrote:In response to Nate- my prediction of 23 wins is based on what should be one of the 3 worst defenses in the league and my hope that we sell off our older vets for longer term assets. It’s possible Charlotte will completely implode and be worse than us this year but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Why do you think our defense will be one of the 3 worst in the league? We've got good defenders at the point of attack in Jones and Wright. We've got some very good, versatile defensive forwards that can match up with anyone (Deni, Kuzma, Coulibaly). And we have a rim protecting center who is at least a deterrent, albeit not a great rebounder.

The second unit will play lousy defense, but the top 7 guys in the rotation play average-ish defense. I could see them finishing as, say, the 22nd best defense in the league.

I think the bigger problem will be offense.

I’m figuring Wright will be gone relatively early, and Jones is 50/50 at the trade deadline. And Gafford doesn’t play more than half of the minutes on the season, leaving our interior d impotent the rest.

Updated list. Get your predictions in before gametime tonight!

18 - Pradamaster
19 - BEEFBROTHER
20 - montestewart
21 - payitforward, J-Ves, bgroban
22 - mhd, Chuck Everett, keynote
23 - BearlyBallin, gesa2, Nigel Tufnel
24 - Benjammin, Hibachi_0, WalltoWall, DANNYLANDOVER
25 - AFM, nate33, Tyrone Messby
26 - 9and20, dckingsfan, dobrojim
27 - FAH1223, queridiculo, closg00, Rafael122
28 - wewillnevertank, CntOutSmrtCrazy
29 - Colbinii, JAR69, trast66
30 - LSBR, Frichuela, TSW, DCZards
31 - Doug_Blew, Endless Loop
32 - gambitx777

12th - LSBR
13th - Doug_Blew, 9and20, Frichuela, WalltoWall
14th - AFM, WWNT, Benj, COSMC, Hibachi_0, nate33, querid, DannyL, NigelT, Rafael, dckingsfan, DCZ, dobrojim, trast66
15th - mhd, BearlyBallin, payitforward, montestewart, gesa2, J-Ves, keynote, JAR69

14th, 26 wins.

28 wins, 13th

33 Wins, 12th in the East
If I'm going to jump back in I might as well go for the cannonball

Well, dang... please DO jump back in!!

Honestly I don't see us being that much worse than last season. Winger and Dawkins have not gone full-Hinkie. They've collected some competent players. The biggest dropoff is KP to whoever starts at PF, but that is worth like what, 5 games? Then there is Brad --> Poole, but Brad missed 30 games last year, and I expect Jordan to play better now that he is removed from the toxic Draymond situation.

Maybe I'm just being seduced by pre-season good vibes, but I'm gonna go with:

33-49, 11th place


EDIT: Wow! Just realized that mine is the high-water mark prediction so far! I am definitely high on my own supply...

GoneShammGone wrote:Honestly I don't see us being that much worse than last season. Winger and Dawkins have not gone full-Hinkie. They've collected some competent players. The biggest dropoff is KP to whoever starts at PF, but that is worth like what, 5 games? Then there is Brad --> Poole, but Brad missed 30 games last year, and I expect Jordan to play better now that he is removed from the toxic Draymond situation.

Maybe I'm just being seduced by pre-season good vibes, but I'm gonna go with:

33-49, 11th place


EDIT: Wow! Just realized that mine is the high-water mark prediction so far! I am definitely high on my own supply...

I think the reasoning on this is generally fair with respect to the talent on the roster. If this team went back in time to play last year's team, the only real difference is Porzingis is being replaced with Muscala.

That said, I think Porzingis for Muscala is going to cost more than 5 wins. Also, I think the competition this year is much stronger than last year. Not only does that make wins harder to come by, but it will mean that the only Eastern team to consider tanking in April will be us. Everyone else (except maybe Detroit) is going to push hard for a play-in slot.

It's more fun to think about ways we could be good than to focus on how bad we are likely to be, that's for sure!

&, after all, we are fans -- short for "fanatical fantasizers!" So...

Let's say Poole returns to his '21-22 productivity.
& Kuz returns to his '20-21 best -- & also improves (as I've predicted he will).
& Kispert takes a year-3 jump equivalent to his improvement from year 1 to year to year 2.

There's no reason not to expect Tyus to play at the same level he did last year.
Ditto Delon Wright.
& how about we also suppose that Daniel Gafford will produce at his career average -- & play a career-high 1800 minutes.
& that Deni getter somewhat better as well -- simply by improving his scoring to the level of an average NBA 3.

But, really, why stop there?

Let's also imagine Landry Shamet returning to the level of his rookie year, his best year by far.
& speculate as well that Bilal Coulibaly's rookie year is at the level of... oh, just say Tari Eason last year.

While we're at it, let's suppose that at least one of Johnny Davis, PBJ, & Ryan Rollins turns into a solid contributor this year.
& that Muscala & Gallo play at their career averages.

If all that happens, I see no reason we wouldn't win 50 games.

Make sense?

nate33 wrote:

gesa2 wrote:In response to Nate- my prediction of 23 wins is based on what should be one of the 3 worst defenses in the league and my hope that we sell off our older vets for longer term assets. It’s possible Charlotte will completely implode and be worse than us this year but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Why do you think our defense will be one of the 3 worst in the league? We've got good defenders at the point of attack in Jones and Wright. We've got some very good, versatile defensive forwards that can match up with anyone (Deni, Kuzma, Coulibaly). And we have a rim protecting center who is at least a deterrent, albeit not a great rebounder.

The second unit will play lousy defense, but the top 7 guys in the rotation play average-ish defense. I could see them finishing as, say, the 22nd best defense in the league.

I think the bigger problem will be offense.

The offense will be terrible but on the bright side they are going to play fast and try their darnedest to remove the long two from the shot chart. Every once in a blue moon they’ll drop 130 on fools and ruin their night

22 wins- I think the roster actually has some talent but it may take some time for it to gel- and then I could see the Wizards using the time closing part of the season to let some young guys develop. I could see the Wizards being better than the Pistons and the Hornets but I'm going to keep the bar low and say they will finish 14th.

40 wins. 8th

Updated list.

18 - Pradamaster
19 - BEEFBROTHER
20 - montestewart, bsilver
21 - payitforward, J-Ves, bgroban
22 - mhd, Chuck Everett, keynote, Kanyewest
23 - BearlyBallin, gesa2, Nigel Tufnel
24 - Benjammin, Hibachi_0, WalltoWall, DANNYLANDOVER
25 - AFM, nate33, Tyrone Messby
26 - 9and20, dckingsfan, dobrojim, Eli Babak
27 - FAH1223, queridiculo, closg00, Rafael122
28 - wewillnevertank, CntOutSmrtCrazy, BigA
29 - Colbinii, JAR69, trast66
30 - LSBR, Frichuela, TSW, DCZards
31 - Doug_Blew, Endless Loop
32 - gambitx777
33 - zardsfan
40 - leswizards

8th - leswizards
12th - LSBR, zardsfan
13th - Doug_Blew, 9and20, Frichuela, WalltoWall, BigA
14th - AFM, WWNT, Benj, COSMC, Hibachi, nate33, querid, DannyL, NigelT, Rafael, dckings, DCZ, dobroj, trast, EB
15th - mhd, BearlyBallin, payitforward, montestewart, gesa2, J-Ves, keynote, JAR69, bsilver

Vegas says 24.5.

Docstradamus says: its a surprising 30 wins this year my friends.

A few streaks of looking good before management shuts down and trades off key players. The East proves volatile with former powerhouse teams having to deconstruct on the fly (Philly) and others climbing the ladder (Pacers). At the top a few dominant teams ransack the league early (Bucks, Celts) leaving others battling for scraps. Those top few get hit by the injury bug late season giving life and hope to the next tier. Some young teams make a surge (Cavs).

The Wizards wisely bow out of the arms race and sell off useful players to the various possible contenders. Multiple teams in the West fall off a cliff, granting free wins to Eastern squads.

We startle the league and pundits by winning a game or two in the Mid-season championship. DC knows Mid.

We finish 14th in the East, ahead of only the Hornets, late season the Pistons talent begins to gel under a new coach and they prove to be a defensive monster at a time when we are busy trading away key pieces.