How would you like to see Arenas play?

[WizarDynasty]

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Again, you are stating, pure unsubstantiated opinion as fact. You have presented no evidence whatsoever to support the notion that a perimeter player who averages a high number of blocked shots is effective at reducing 3-point percentage. You just repeat it over and over again in a vain hope that repetition will make it true.

Has the thought ever occurred to you that the perimeter defender who is always flying around going after blocked shots is highly susceptible to ball fakes and is not in position to recover, box out, or rotate? Since you are such an experienced ball player, I would have hoped that you would have considered this. Apparently you have not.

Compare the blocks per minute of players in their 1st and 2nd season versus how they fare in their 4th or 5th season. Almost without exception, rookies block more shots and get more steals per minute. But in general, rookies are lousy defenders relative to 5th-year vets. How can this be? The simple answer is that players who generate a lot of steals and blocks often do so at the expense of playing good position defense within a team concept.

I displayed playoffs stats...team vs player to support my claim so I suggest you take a look at it on page 4, might help u out a lil bit. As far rookies go, I see no numbers backing your claim. And I will reiterate...please provide numbers instead of telling your sources as opposed to data that exist in your sources..(there is a huge difference from saying larry brown said so you should believe it..versus finding data that all can verify such as I have done to support my claims against)--if you want to use larry brown--tell me the numbers larry brown used...just as I have done so that all can analyze the numerical relationships and inferences you have made ourselves..such as I have done. that would be quite beneficial for all. Posting the numbers you are referencing in your post helps us to see how you have connected your analysis with actual existing data based on NBA play as opposed to raw opinion with no numbers to support.
and if you are relying on your own statistical analysis..where are numbers so some can show you where you messed up lol..obviously you been plodding in dark for a very long time...even though you have a strong passion for the truth which i respect. But again..Wizards perimeter players suck at challenging especially in playoffs when it really counts..go see my previous post (where I show numbers to suppot this claim).

the biggest weakness I see is that you failed to realize that a block is more than just a hand in the face...a player hand has impeded the ball direction toward the basket...which is takes far more effort than a simple in hand in face...and obviously forces the offensive player to adjust his mechanics...as opposed to merely inhibiting a portion of his site. In order to impede the trajectory of the ball on the perimeter..a player has to physically reach a height in the trajectory of the ball..which exist above a players face...do you get it now. This far more difficult than just a hand in the face..and causes an offensive player to adjust his shooting mechanics...I have just provided the torch you need to light your pathway...the first step is for you to move beyond..inhibiting an offensive players sight..and literally forcing a offensive player to change the trajectory of the ball. This is completely different from inhibiting his sight. I guess you need to actually blocks shots on perimeter or have your shot block on the perimeter to realize theres a huge difference from inhibition of sight...aka hand in face...and a defensive player getting his hand on the ball that you have just released from your fingers...shot block. A shot block has occured after the ball is released..meaning..in order for a player to compensate for his shot being blocked...he has has to either increase teh arc on his shot..or release it quicker..both affecting his normal shooting motion...more light for you.

Wizards starting SG and SF have failed to demonstrate that they can affect a shot on the perimeter after it has been released!!

and again..I have referenced..playoff statistics..not regular season. Playoffs is where it actually counts. So if your not referencing playoff statistics..there is no way for you to understand the defensive relationships I have presented and we are talking SG and SF not players that primarily defend in the paint. I could care less how a player performs in regular season if he doesn't perform the same way or better in playoffs because I would like a Wizard Dynasty..not a perennial first round exit team.

[TheSecretWeapon]

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Blocked shots for a perimeter player indicates that not only does he put himself in a successful position to challenge a shot but also that he drop the percentage of the shot going into the basket to absolute zero. the entire point behind challenging a shot is decreasing field goal percentage. Often times a player makes an attempt to block a shot but is unsuccessful due to an alteration by the offensive player. What is most important is understanding that NBA players are professionals at shooting and the un natural element is a hand in their face that literally deflects their shot. The closer a defensive player is to actually blocking a shot, the more adjustment an offensive player must make in order to prevent this. The greater his adjustment, the lower his field goal percentage. Apparently your statistics have failed to uncovered this insight that comes from actually playing on both sides. A perimeter player that has over riden an offensive players adjustment to successfully block a shot..has demonstrated overcoming the an offensive players adjustment.
The ability to over ride an offensive players shot adjustment to a defender shot challenge is what Wizard's perimeter player failed to demonstrate in the playoffs. the best shooter field goal percentage will drop substantially if he is forced to greatly alter his normal shooting mechanics to prevent a block. But this adjustment can only be forced when a player successful puts his hand..and thus body in a position to challenge the shot on the perimeter.
SG and SF play the majority of their defense on the perimeter and we can make a qualified deductions that the majority of their blocked shots don't occur in the post..and thus the perimeter. Blocking the shot on the perimeter takes completely different skills than blocking a shot in the paint. When a perimeter player such as a shooting guard or even a small forward demonstrates blocks..we can assume that more times than not..the blocked occurred on the perimeter and the player successfully overcame a shooters adjustment to deny his shot being blocked.
Again, it takes an ability to block a shot on the perimeter and many players...wizards starting sg and sf failed to show this ability in the most important games of the season relative to their starting counterparts on top defensive play off teams.
Your stats geeks will fail to see this relationship due to their lack of playing experience on both sides. No number is going to broadcast this relationship but actual playing experience makes this relationship apparent .

Sigh. I apologize profoundly for addressing your suppositions and unsubstantiated guessing with facts. I thought you were here for conversation, but I guess not. Carry on with whatever it is you're doing and don't mind my nonsensical ravings.

For those who are reading along and may actually be interested, my comments on what causes players to miss shots comes from several different sources. One of those is playing basketball since I was 12. I'm now 38. I took a few years because of bad knees, but I'm still out there playing ball a couple times a week.

Another source is from reading what coaches have written about how to play defense. These coaches include schmucks like Larry Brown and Dean Smith.

Another source is from actually tracking defense for parts of the past 3 seasons. I've published articles about those tracking efforts (and the results from them) here at RealGM and at SI.com.

Another source is from interviews and conversations with NBA coaches, including the Wizards coaching staff, Rick Carlisle, Jim O'Brien, Doug Collins, Hubie Brown, and an array of assistant coaches from around the league. I got 10 minutes with Dick Harter a couple years ago, which was pretty cool. I've also spent time working with some stat goobers (several of which are now working for NBA teams) on better ways to measure individual defense.

Finally, I draw information from an array of statistical sources and analyses, including my own.

In all of that, I have seen no evidence -- nor have I heard any coach, player, or front office executive suggest (in writing or verbally) -- that the way to reduce opponent 3pt shooting percentage is by having guys block more shots on the perimeter. Everyone agrees that the number one factor for lowering opponent shooting percentage is getting a hand in the shooter's face. Notwithstanding Dynasty's claims, a hand in the face DOES bother NBA shooters. I've seen that in my own tracking of NBA games. I've been told that by coaches, executives, current players, and former players. No one -- not a single person -- has ever expressed concern about getting their shot blocked on the perimeter or said that it's something that has an effect on their shooting.

[nate33]

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I displayed playoffs stats...team vs player to support my claim so I suggest you take a look at it on page 4, might help u out a lil bit. As far rookies go, I see no numbers backing your claim. And I will reiterate...please provide numbers instead of telling your sources as opposed to data that exist in your sources..(there is a huge difference from saying larry brown said so you should believe it..versus finding data that all can verify such as I have done to support my claims against)--if you want to use larry brown--tell me the numbers larry brown used...just as I have done so that all can analyze the numerical relationships and inferences you have made ourselves..such as I have done. that would be quite beneficial for all. Posting the numbers you are referencing in your post helps us to see how you have connected your analysis with actual existing data based on NBA play as opposed to raw opinion with no numbers to support.
and if you are relying on your own statistical analysis..where are numbers so some can show you where you messed up lol..obviously you been plodding in dark for a very long time...even though you have a strong passion for the truth which i respect. But again..Wizards perimeter players suck at challenging especially in playoffs when it really counts..go see my previous post (where I show numbers to suppot this claim).

Your playoff stats are meaningless. Sample sizes of 6-10 games are insignificant when compared to 82-game samples of the regular season. Furthermore, Bruce Bowen has spent most of the playoffs chasing around the 6-1 Steve Nash and the 6-0 Chris Paul. One would expect his blocked shot rate to increase a bit when compared to his normal matchups. It's a perfect example of why your small sample size is all but useless.

Regarding data to back up my numbers, here's a few notable perimeter defenders:

Deshawn Stevenson:
2nd year: 0.9 blocks
5th year: 0.3 blocks

Tayshaun Prince:
1st year: 1.4 blocks
5th year: 0.8 blocks

Bruce Bowen
1st year: 0.9 blocks
5th year: 0.6 blocks

Shawn Marion:
1st year: 1.6 blocks
5th year: 1.3 blocks

Scottie Pippen
1st year: 1.2 blocks
5th year: 0.9 blocks

It applies to big men too:

Brendan Haywood
1st year: 3.0 blocks
5th year: 2.2 blocks

David Robinson
1st year: 3.9 blocks
5th year: 3.3 blocks

Shaq
1st year: 3.5 blocks
5th year: 2.6 blocks

Some guys remained constant. Very few players increased over the years with the exception of extremely young rookies who didn't physically have the strength or conditioning to hold their position well enough to block shots as rookies. Guys like Gerald Wallace started low, peaked in the 3rd to 5th year, and then dropped.

[Silvie Lysandra]

Maybe I am really misinterpreting what WD is trying to convey, but my thought was that blocked shots on the perimeter was significant because of the idea that "if a player is blocking a lot of shots on the perimeter, then one can deduce that he MUST be challenging a lot of shots"

Case in point: Jordan, who is arguably the best perimeter defender of all time, is also the all time leader for blocks for a guard. That may be a stat that confirms what we already know - that he was highly successful challenging shots, either by getting a hand in their face or by actually altering the shot.

Though to claim that a hand in the face doesn't bother shooters is lol.

[WizarDynasty]

Maybe I am really misinterpreting what WD is trying to convey, but my thought was that blocked shots on the perimeter was significant because of the idea that "if a player is blocking a lot of shots on the perimeter, then one can deduce that he MUST be challenging a lot of shots"

Case in point: Jordan, who is arguably the best perimeter defender of all time, is also the all time leader for blocks for a guard. That may be a stat that confirms what we already know - that he was highly successful challenging shots, either by getting a hand in their face or by actually altering the shot.

Though to claim that a hand in the face doesn't bother shooters is lol.

U have interpreted correctly.. a hand in face bothers some perimeter shooters...but a hand on the ball after they release theire shot..bothers ALL PERIMETER SHOOTERS!! and if you got your hand on their ball after it was released...you have already satisfied getting a hand in their face especially if you are a starting SG or SF in the playoffs defending on the perimeter.

[nate33]

Maybe I am really misinterpreting what WD is trying to convey, but my thought was that blocked shots on the perimeter was significant because of the idea that "if a player is blocking a lot of shots on the perimeter, then one can deduce that he MUST be challenging a lot of shots"

Case in point: Jordan, who is arguably the best perimeter defender of all time, is also the all time leader for blocks for a guard. That may be a stat that confirms what we already know - that he was highly successful challenging shots, either by getting a hand in their face or by actually altering the shot.

For every Jordan-like anectode, I can give you a Bruce Bowen anecdote. Bowen has been considered a top 3 perimeter defender for half a decade now. He average just 0.5 blocks and 1.0 steals (per 40) over the past 5 years. Those are downright lousy steals and blocks stats, but it doesn't mean he's a bad defender.

Joe Dumars averaged 0.1 blocks and 0.9 steals per 40 throughout his career. He was one of the best perimeter defenders of all time.

TSW has already demonstrated (repeatedly) that blocks and steals do not correlate well with good defense. What matters more than anything else is forcing misses. There are plenty of ways to force misses other than to block shots.

[WizarDynasty]

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For every Jordan-like anectode, I can give you a Bruce Bowen anecdote. Bowen has been considered a top 3 perimeter defender for half a decade now. He average just 0.5 blocks and 1.0 steals (per 40) over the past 5 years. Those are downright lousy steals and blocks stats, but it doesn't mean he's a bad defender.

Joe Dumars averaged 0.1 blocks and 0.9 steals per 40 throughout his career. He was one of the best perimeter defenders of all time.

TSW has already demonstrated (repeatedly) that blocks and steals do not correlate well with good defense. What matters more than anything else is forcing misses. There are plenty of ways to force misses other than to block shots.

How did Joe perform in playoffs compared to his counterparts and how far did his team reach the playoffs in that year for stats you are citing. 0.5 blocks per game in playoff is alot higher than carons .017 and Deshauns 0.00 blocks per game in playoffs this year.

You gotta be kidding me with this plenty of ways to force misses on an good nba perimeter shooter who will drain the open shot. Either you foul him and it doesn't get called...you impeded his vision..or you literally block the shot. What other ways do you know of...please educate sir. I counted 3.

[fishercob]

This has to stop. One can only be forced to watch such a brutal intellectual smackdown for so long. Kevin and Nate, leave the poor guy alone already. He has a hard enough time getting through life bowlegged.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Ed Kupfer at APBRmetrics has looked at what happens to NBA players with age. Here's his chart on blocks:

]http://img380.imageshack.us/my.php?image=bl8rb.png

Chaos: I can see why someone might think that blocks on the perimeter might be an indicator of someone who challenges a lot of shots. But we don't have that stat. "Blocks" is a catch-all stat that includes everything. If we had a "perimeter" blocks stat, we might be able to make something of it. At the team level, there's no relationship between blocks and opponent 3pt shooting percentage.

Jordan, who was indeed a great defender, ranks 19th in per minute blocks among guards (basketball-reference lists players as "guard", "forward" or "center"). The number one guard in per minute blocks? George Gervin. [color=green]And EVERYONE knows that Gervin was one of the greatest defenders in the history of the game.[/color]

Here's the list of blocks per 36 minutes among guards -- http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... i?id=ovpkD

And, here's a handmade list of blocks per minute blocks among PGs (not pace-adjusted):

1. Jerry West -- 0.9 (played both guard spots)
2. Dwyane Wade -- 0.8 (combo guard)
3. Mike Gale -- 0.7
4. Dennis Johnson -- 0.7 (played both guard spots)
5. Delonte West -- 0.6 (combo)
6. Nate McMillan -- 0.5
7. Darwin Cook -- 0.5 (combo)
8. Ron Lee -- 0.5
9. Alvin Robertson -- 0.5 (combo)
10. Penny Hardaway -- 0.5 (combo)
11. Doc Rivers -- 0.4
12. Lucius Allen -- 0.4
13. Michael Ray Richardson -- 0.4
14. Bob Weiss -- 0.4
15. Jim Price -- 0.4
16. Devin Harris -- 0.4
17. Louie Dampier -- 0.4
18. Baron Davis -- 0.4
19. Lionel Hollins -- 0.4
20. Eddie Jordan -- 0.4
21. Steve Francis -- 0.4 (combo)
22. Magic Johnson -- 0.4
23. Marcus Banks -- 0.4 (barely made the 5000 career minutes minimum)
24. Ray Williams -- 0.4
25. Gus Williams -- 0.4

A number of other PGs also landed at 0.4 blocks per 36 minutes.

[nate33]

Ed Kupfer at APBRmetrics has looked at what happens to NBA players with age. Here's his chart on blocks:

]http://img380.imageshack.us/my.php?image=bl8rb.png

Kevin, can you repost the link. That one doesn't work

[doclinkin]

Here: he had an extra "]"

http://img380.imageshack.us/my.php?image=bl8rb.png

[nate33]

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How did Joe perform in playoffs compared to his counterparts and how far did his team reach the playoffs in that year for stats you are citing. 0.5 blocks per game in playoff is alot higher than carons .017 and Deshauns 0.00 blocks per game in playoffs this year.

Bruce Bowen's career playoff block average: 0.5
Caron Butler's career playoff block average: 0.5

Seriously. How much more of this can you take?

[WizarDynasty]

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Bruce Bowen's career playoff block average: 0.5
Caron Butler's career playoff block average: 0.5

Seriously. How much more of this can you take?

so you can explain to me why he average .17 this year? and bruce bowen average .42
and if u up your reading comprehension -back on page 15 on this thread, you would see that san antonio spurs weren't ranked the top 3 in 3pt percentage allowed and bruce did not have the highest blocked avg. It was however higher than carons and stevenson..and the spurs did hold their opponents to lower 3pt field goal percentage proving my point. Ginobilli, the other starting SG also had a higher avg blocks per game in 2008. If you want use historical data, at least be smart of enough to show the relationship between an opposing teams ranking 3pt percentage allowed and the individuals sf or sg blocks per game versus his comparative position for the playoffs. Just to restate..if you are going to compare Bruce Bowen Performance in 2006 to Caron Butlers Performance in 2006 you need to show how he performed to his colleagues in that given year during the playoffs and see if there was a correlation between his high or low blocks per game and the opposing teams 3pt allowed percentage. man you are lost.. LOL. completely lost man. I given' you a clue on how to proceed with your analysis and career playoff average is not the way bud.

[nate33]

Here: he had an extra "]"

http://img380.imageshack.us/my.php?image=bl8rb.png

Thanks doc.

I'll post it here to save WizardDynasty the trouble

Players block fewer shots after their first moment they arrive in the NBA. The only exceptions are centers and really young guys who increase their blocks shots a bit before declining.

I don't think this can be explained purely by loss of athleticism because, in most cases, 25-27 year-olds are in physically better shape than 22-23 years olds once they've had a few offseasons to work out.

It seems the more reasonable conclusion is that blocking shots doesn't necessarily translate into good defense. As players get smarter, they learn not to go for so many blocked shots.

[nate33]

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so you can explain to me why he average .17 this year?

For the same reason that Bowen averaged just .25 blocks last year. When dealing with small sample sizes, there are sure to be wider statistical deviations.

Of course, Butler's injuries could have played a role too.

[WizarDynasty]

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Thanks doc.

I'll post it here to save WizardDynasty the trouble
(picture)
Players block fewer shots after their first moment they arrive in the NBA. The only exceptions are centers and really young guys who increase their blocks shots a bit before declining.

I don't think this can be explained purely by loss of athleticism because, in most cases, 25-27 year-olds are in physically better shape than 22-23 years olds once they've had a few offseasons to work out.

It seems the more reasonable conclusion is that blocking shots doesn't necessarily translate into good defense. As players get smarter, they learn not to go for so many blocked shots.

it looks like Sg and SF defy that trend during the prime of there career. A player drops out of his prime around 30 years old on average and takes a downward slope. SF actually increase and SG remain slighly steady which is what this discussion is about which really doesn't help your argument. Again..Blocking shots on perimeter decrease an opponents perimeter field goal percentage.. wizards didn't starting players didn't demonstrate this ability in 2008 playoffs, which are the game that really count in order to win a championship and again..my claim was limited to playoffs..the game s that count 10 times more than regular season games.

[nate33]

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so you can explain to me why he average .17 this year? and bruce bowen average .42
and if u up your reading comprehension, you would see that san antonio spurs weren't ranked the top 3 in 3pt percentage allowed and bruce did not have the highest blocked avg. It was however higher than carons and stevenson..and the spurs did hold their opponents to lower 3pt field goal percentage proving my point. Ginobilli, the other starting SG also had a higher avg blocks per game in 2008. If you want use historical data, at least be smart of enough to show the relationship between an opposing teams ranking 3pt percentage allowed and the individuals sf or sg blocks per game versus his comparative position for the playoffs. Just to restate..if you are going to compare Bruce Bowen Performance in 2006 to Caron Butlers Performance in 2006 you need to show how he performed to his colleagues in that given year during the playoffs and see if there was a correlation between his high or low blocks per game and the opposing teams 3pt allowed percentage. man you are lost.. LOL. completely lost man. I given' you a clue on how to proceed with your analysis and career playoff average is not the way bud.

No, you are the one that needs to produce that data. You are the one who is alleging that having shot blockers at the wing positions dramatically reduces opposing team's 3-point percentage. You have provided no data whatsoever except a useless sample size of individual stats for about 4-10 playoff games with no correlation study between that data and the effect on team defense.

Kevin and I have provided a heck of a lot more factual evidence to refute your contention than you have provided to support it. I find it comical that you have taken a derisive tone with me when you are the one that looks like a fool.

[nate33]

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my claim was limited to playoffs..the game s that count 10 times more than regular season games.

I tried using playoff numbers to refute your baseless theory, but as usual, you chose to ignore them. Instead, you pick and choose extraordinarily small sample sizes of one or two playoff series that back your claim, and try to extrapolate a conclusion from that data.

You can go on believing what you want to believe. But rest assured, you are convincing nobody else because your theory is full of holes.

[WizarDynasty]

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I tried using playoff numbers to refute your baseless theory, but as usual, you chose to ignore them. Instead, you pick and choose extraordinarily small sample sizes of one or two playoff series that back your claim, and try to extrapolate a conclusion from that data.

You can go on believing what you want to believe. But rest assured, you are convincing nobody else because your theory is full of holes.

Apparently you still don't understand why you need to post the opposing teams perimeter field goal percentage relative to his colleague but I guess that's over your head, which was something I showed on page 15. I guess your theory crumbles when you post stats for 2006 comparing sg and sf playoff stats as well as how their team performed defensively on perimeter for that particular playoff year. you can just admit the stats only exist for 2008 lol. But playoff average..come on..that show you completely don't understand what has been discussed. can we say free post.

[nate33]

You made no correlation study with your data. You just posted the raw numbers. Was Cleveland's good 3pt D a result of Lebrons high blocks, or Wally's low blocks? I note that Boston has good 3pt D despite Pierce and Allen ranking near the bottom of the shot blocking category. Orlando had good 3pt D but with wing players ranking near the bottom in blocks. Atlanta had lousy 3pt D but their wing players blocked a lot of shots.

Your sample sizes are small and I question whether those blocks numbers produce any correlation to 3pt defense. WizKev already pointed out that regular season blocks have a slightly negative correlation between blk/pf and opponent 3pt%.

And while we're at it, I further question whether 3pt defense has any significant correlation to wins. Who gives a crap whether or not a team permits a high 3pt% so long as their overall eFG% allowed is low.