The Amazingly Sucky Ernie Grunfield Thread:

[dobrojim]

nate, all the points you made about the team exceeding expectations DURING THE REGULAR SEASON is all well taken.

However, they went out like dogs in the playoffs and that's what sticks with me.

The defense was great and IMO it was the best Wizards team I've seen prior to Butler's first injury. I agree with your points 100%. The injuries certainly derailed what might have been a great season.

That said, I think EG lacked foresight not picking up a third PG and I also hold him most to blame (as he bid against himself) for the team not having ANY cap room to sign a veteran for the playoff run.

DeShawn more than played worth his contract IMO and he at least showed up in the playoffs.

I fault EJ at the end of the season for not playing bigger lineups in the Cleveland series and for not using Young or McGuire more (for their athleticism) in the way they lost to the Cavs. EJ's coaching was so predictable. Then again, when Songaila's all you got behind undersized PF Jamison and when Blatche/EJ went south; NOT HAVING A GUY LIKE MILLSAP hurt this team. Not even being able to afford to keep Mike Wilks without going over the tax makes a difference when AD is injured and can't guard anybody. That's on EG too.

I don't think EG's sucky overall, but I think his draft was horribly sucky this season and that last year he didn't help EJ at all by bringing in a PG or a veteran. I also think the Songaila/Pecherov/Young trio will score points but get you beat when it counts. Just like Arenas/Butler/Jamison.

McGee's not a great defender. Not even a good one.

That's why the past three days EG became sucky in my eyes.

I'm with Chaos in thinking blowing it up is what it will come down to. Having Butler and Jamison at the Fs the team gives up too much with lack of size and lack of defense to EVER be elite in the playoffs.

EG's conservative approach goes back to the emperor in underwear analogy.

I just hope McGuire and Young have great seasons and that Andray comes in focused, and that EJ is again forced by injury to occasionally play better lineups this season.

I think saying they went out like dogs in the playoffs is a bit of an overstatement.
I was at the final game the last 2 years. It's a huge disappointment. In that last game,
they played badly, esp RMjr who had done well for most of the year. The most disappointing
thing was getting beat by WallyZ and Gibson. Caron and DS should have done more IN THAT
GAME. But getting to game 6 was pretty impressive winning the game (5) they did in CLE.

I for one do not want to have the team blown up just because of the disappointment
of not getting any farther than we did. As someone who has followed the team continuously
since the late 1960s, I'm quite confident in saying things could be a whole lot worse.

Is the disappointment of not beating a team that took the Champs to 7 games really
enough to suffer through potentially years of re-building? There are no guarantees
of how long rebuilding will take.

[DCZards]

You've got to put the Daniels signing in context. The Wizards just lost Hughes after one brief season of relative success. We were one year removed of being a laughingstock - the Clippers East. EG could not afford to lose traction after a breakout season. We needed a replacement for Hughes and EG didn't have the luxury of being choosy. AD was the best guy available, but EG had to put forth a big enough package to convince him to come to this lowly franchise.

My recall is that AD was a "hot" free agent that summer with at least 2-3 teams bidding on his services. AD had just come off of a solid year with Seattle and his high-b'ball IQ is well known. It's always easy to debate the mumbers (salary) in hindsight but I thought AD was a good pick up at the time and I still like what he brings to the Zards, especially the leadership, maturity and willingness play hurt.

EG did bid against himself in the Stevenson signing. But you gotta be careful when you play hardball in this league. Other players (i.e. potential future free agents) pay attention. EG probably could have browbeat Stevenson to sign the initial 4-year $12M deal rather than the 4-year $15M deal he ultimately signed. But is that extra $750K a year worth the negative feedback that the franchise would get on the street? Stevenson was ultimately worth the $15M deal, and the goodwill may come in handy in the future. Indeed, we shall see this summer if Arenas and Jamison give Abe a hometown discount due to the loyalty he has shown to the team so far.

DS played for the league minimum his first year as a Wizard and I've always had a sneaky feeling that EG promised to take care of him the next year if he showed he was a keeper. EG may have overpaid some for that reason. DS is a solid defender and has improved every year he's been with the Wizards, especially as a three point shooter. I believe he's still a good deal for the money...and the fact that EG "took care" of DS is indeed something other players will notice, including quality free agents.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I still maintain that EG did not overpay for Stevenson.

[KevinFCheng]

Stevenson's deal was a great one. He's definitely not overpaid.

[dobrojim]

tsw,

i think you're right. What's more, you actually have the data to
back up your position. He's not overpaid and what's more, Nate's
point about not trying to be hardasses all the time is also correct
and will eventually pay dividends.

Be fair, be sensible and let the dice roll.

[doclinkin]

DS played for the league minimum his first year as a Wizard and I've always had a sneaky feeling that EG promised to take care of him the next year if he showed he was a keeper. EG may have overpaid some for that reason. DS is a solid defender and has improved every year he's been with the Wizards, especially as a three point shooter. I believe he's still a good deal for the money...and the fact that EG "took care" of DS is indeed something other players will notice, including quality free agents.

No sneaky feeling necessary. Both Ernie and DSteve said so outright. That all he needed to do was play defense and fit in with the team and the Wiz would make sure he got paid fair and square. Both ends kept their side of the bargain. Yes DeShawn gave the Wiz their money's worth this year, playing at a level even higher than before, despite injury and without missing a single game. This year anyway he was a relative bargain.

[sfam]

I for one do not want to have the team blown up just because of the disappointment
of not getting any farther than we did. As someone who has followed the team continuously
since the late 1960s, I'm quite confident in saying things could be a whole lot worse.

Is the disappointment of not beating a team that took the Champs to 7 games really
enough to suffer through potentially years of re-building? There are no guarantees
of how long rebuilding will take.

No guarantees is right. I personally am not interested in another 10-20 year wait before we make it to the playoffs again. Sure, it might be earlier than that and we might draft the next Oden; but with our luck, he'll probably have a knee issue which ends his career before it begins. To state that anything less than a perennial championship contender is unacceptable is fairly comical, given the history of the franchise.

And lets face it, the defense did improve this year. If our stars stay healthy and Gil buys into the system, we have more than a legit shot of getting out of the first round...assuming we don't play Cleveland again, that is...

[Wizards2Lottery]

Stevenson was coming of a terrible ending to his season. He was downright garbage in the last half of the season and historically bad in the playoffs.

He could've been had for a much lesser deal, which in result would have allowed us to bring in a capable backup for AD rather than running him into the ground for good.

Is he over payed now? Probably not. But at that time, EG bid against himself when I doubt any other team would have offered him anything close to what we gave him. Same goes for Songaila. Songaila was not going to get that deal from someone else. However, I think DSong can be a good player for this team if the coach knew how to use him, IE not as a small ball center.

[Severn Hoos]

Is he over payed now? Probably not. But at that time, EG bid against himself when I doubt any other team would have offered him anything close to what we gave him.

OK, so play out this scenario.

DS2 gets frustrated with the brand of hardball that Ernie plays, especially after the gentleman's understanding that he would be rewarded for his effort/performance. DS says, "Fine. Give me another 1-year deal, we'll tak next summer." DS proves to be worth every penny of the $3M per & more.

Now, we have yet another FA to deal with. And as with Jamison, keeping DS is (and was) relevant to Gil's decision whether he re-ups. And the only guys waiting in the wings are a talented but raw (and possibly immature?) kid coming off his rookie season, or a journeyman coming off a career year - who also happens to be a FA. Or we go and overpay for someone else's FA as a stopgap SG until Nick's ready to handle the load as a starter.

Likely outcome? A deal for DS2, starting this year at closer to the MLE.

So yes, maybe last summer Ernie was negotiating against himslef - just that it was against the 2008 version of himself. And I think the 2007 Ernie got the better deal.

[sfam]

And as with Jamison, keeping DS is (and was) relevant to Gil's decision whether he re-ups.

This is a good way to look at the other 3 mil most of us think was perhaps too much. That extra 3 mil for DS was more about keeping Gil happy. This is hardly a unique problem when dealing with the team's superstar player. Same with Jamison. We won't play total hardball with Jamison because we want Gil happy.

Now all of us should probably go pray in a corner somewhere in the hopes that Gil's knee rebounds like it needs to.

[DCZards]

Stevenson was coming of a terrible ending to his season. He was downright garbage in the last half of the season and historically bad in the playoffs.

Thankfully (and wisely), EG gave DS credit for his solid performance throughout most of the 2006-07 season and didn't use his poor playoff performance against him as a negotiating tool. EG also probably took into consideration DS's attitude, toughness and chemistry with the rest of the team. And it doesn't hurt that DS plays EVERY game.

[Wizards2Lottery]

Is he over payed now? Probably not. But at that time, EG bid against himself when I doubt any other team would have offered him anything close to what we gave him.

OK, so play out this scenario.

DS2 gets frustrated with the brand of hardball that Ernie plays, especially after the gentleman's understanding that he would be rewarded for his effort/performance. DS says, "Fine. Give me another 1-year deal, we'll tak next summer." DS proves to be worth every penny of the $3M per & more.

Now, we have yet another FA to deal with. And as with Jamison, keeping DS is (and was) relevant to Gil's decision whether he re-ups. And the only guys waiting in the wings are a talented but raw (and possibly immature?) kid coming off his rookie season, or a journeyman coming off a career year - who also happens to be a FA. Or we go and overpay for someone else's FA as a stopgap SG until Nick's ready to handle the load as a starter.

Likely outcome? A deal for DS2, starting this year at closer to the MLE.

So yes, maybe last summer Ernie was negotiating against himslef - just that it was against the 2008 version of himself. And I think the 2007 Ernie got the better deal.

Or we could have just signed DS2 to a multi year contract at a cheaper value.

He would have taken long term security at a pretty good deal (at that moment for him) over another one year moderate deal.

[doclinkin]

From the Sucky Abe Thread but it probably makes more sense here:

This line of thought is based on the assumption that this was EG's decision in absence of Pollin's monetary constraints. I'd be willing to bet my paycheck EG could have come up with a potential Euro guard at that spot. I wouldn't be too surprised if he fielded a call or two on trading the pick.

Hmmn, maybe, but nobody else bothered to draft that mythical Euro guard either. So if Ernie wants him he'll just have to come up with the money for him in free agency. Where he's gonna raise that money I sure don't know considering how poor the owner is-. Maybe he'll have to, I dunno, sell a draft pick or something.

The question of relative value is: how much do you think it's worth to put your marker on: a foreign guy named 'Tadija' (I swear I went to school with her), Chaka Khan from Kansas and his megabucks contract from CSKA Moscow, or a Turkish lunk who is a lazy and low-IQ seven footer. Those are the only Euros selected after our pick. How much do you think they're worth?

Seems to me you'd do better finding a Euro not in the draft, the old fashioned way, with cash dollars. If a Euro is what you think you need.

And that's what I came to figure out after throwing a good old temper tantrum in the evaluation thread. Leaving open a couple roster spots may have a ton more value than holding onto a wounded back-up rookie SF with a history of knee problems, or even selecting a back-up banger who doesn't fit the scheme.

Having two open roster spots means we can invite prospects to try out for the team who might be better than this year's lotto picks #48-60. And instead of picking blind in the hopes that they fit, they can compete and audition for the job. I got excited when Dat thought we we'd landed Pat Calathes for the SL team; then equally excited that Gary Forbes apparently committed. Plus that back-up PG slot is still open, and we've got a HUGE team for the SL that can make any Point worth his jockstrap look damn good if he knows how to pitch an alley oop. At least against Summerleague defenses.

There are a ton of interesting prospects in the D-League, in Europe, etc. likely better than this year's limited prospects in the late 2nd round. I'd bet on Ernie's ability to find a guy from that far larger pool before I'd cry about a lost draft pick. Okay well no, after I'd cry about the pick, but upon reasoned reflection later when I again realized yeah Ernie's a little better at his job than I am.
----------------------

Essentially with Forbes in Camp, Ernie plucked a solid 2nd round type pick with the slashing type game and passing that succeeds well in our scheme-- and got cash on the dollar for a guy who probably won't play this coming year. Not shabby.

[Silvie Lysandra]

[
And lets face it, the defense did improve this year.

Actually, this pervasvie myth that we improved defensively last year deserves its own Amazingly Sucky thread tbh.

We gave up more threes than any other team than history. That didn't just happen after Caron Butler went down. We still have a fundamentally flawed defensive approach. That's not the fault of injuries. We still are undersized at the 4, and our best defender there is 22. Our backup C has been overrated for years and takes minutes away from our very good starter at the position.

And this is all going to improve with "continuity".

You know what? This "continuity" crap is going to blow up in our faces. Yeah, continutity will be great when we miss the playoffs at 41-41 because the entire Eastern Conference improved except for us. Look at the bottom-feeders. Atlanta will be better. Philly will be better. Chicago will be better. Charlotte might be better. Miami will be better.

Be honest with yourselves - do you really think this current group can indubitably say we are better than 2 of those teams? Or are you still in dreamland (As I used to be) that we can compete with the Bostons, Detroits, Clevelands and Orlandos? At BEST we're #5 in the East. Okay? Can we just get that straight? We don't play defense, we don't rebound consistently. Do you think we will become one of the best 5-7 teams in the league just by keeping together a team whose upside is 50 wins in the East? Do you really hope that we'll be like Cleveland, pull a team with injuries or whatever and luck into the Finals?

No, I'd rather build a team that can contend for years. If blowing it up is what it takes, then so be it. If Grunfield is such a great GM, we could trust him to supervise the rebuild, right?

[DCZards]

And this is all going to improve with "continuity".

You know what? This "continuity" crap is going to blow up in our faces. Yeah, continutity will be great when we miss the playoffs at 41-41 because the entire Eastern Conference improved except for us. Look at the bottom-feeders. Atlanta will be better. Philly will be better. Chicago will be better. Charlotte might be better. Miami will be better.

And, with the addition of an all-star PG, the Wizards will be better.

[Silvie Lysandra]

except we went 41-41 with that team lol

seriously, stop playing fantasy basketball and understand that 44 win teams don't magically turn into 55 win teams unless major changes are made

I love Gil but this team isn't built well.

[Wizards2Lottery]

I love Gil but this team isn't built well.

+1. Adding Gil won't mean squat when the team blows on defense. We have horrible defenders at the 1 and 4 spot. An effort giving but undersized defender at the 3 spot and we have no defensive bigs to spell Haywood, instead we have to go small with Songaila and Etan.

No defense = no playoff improvement.

[Silvie Lysandra]

See, like I said, we need to build around Gilbert Arenas better. Get a guy at 2 who can guard 1s, surround him with. solid defenders, get a lockdown backup behind Gil, and get a better coach. Then Gilbert can do his thing offensively and he'll look a lot better defensively because his gambling won't burn us as much

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Bump this to the top if it's true that EG offered Gil 6 yrs and $127M.

[newslowsad]

Bump this to the top if it's true that EG offered Gil 6 yrs and $127M.

Do we get to create the "Amazingly Sucky Gilbert Arenas Thread" if he accepts that offer without leaving money to sign other players?