The RealGM Wizards Board Draft Thread 2008/2009

[miller31time]

I see Hansbrough being a rich man's Nick Collison.

[Ruzious]

CCJ, I'd stop short of projecting Hansbrough to be as good as Boozer. But I certainly think he can step in and provide was Songaila does (tons of minutes at the center spot! JK...) as a backup PF. He's going to be a quality NBA pick and pop guy and will rebound with tenacity.

When I said he'd be this year's Boozer I was only trying to say he's going to fall too far in the draft. That's the only comparion with Boozer I was attempting to make. Never said he'd be as good as Boozer.

If Nocioni can play SF so can Hansbrough. I see him being like Nocioni more so than Songaila. I think Ryan Gomes is another decent comparison. I believe Hansbrough will find a way to score in the NBA.

You are way way wayyyyyyyyyy overrating Hansbrough - as to how he'd fit in the NBA. There's zippy chance he can play the 3 in the NBA. We have a better chance of simultaneously winning $100 million each at Powerball. Even aside from his obvious physical limitations, he's not a good jump shooter. Hansbrough is just not a good pro prospect. At best, he's a Songaila - with a worse perimeter game and better inside game. He might be able to score a bit, but that's it. He's really not that good a rebounder, and he won't be able to defend anyone in the NBA - they won't call the charges he draws in college. And he's really not much like Gomes, either. And the Collison comparison miller made doesn't fit, either. Collison's 2 inches taller, longer, and a much better rebounder. Hansbrough is just not a good pro prospect and should not be a 1st round pick.

[nate33]

CCJ, I'd stop short of projecting Hansbrough to be as good as Boozer. But I certainly think he can step in and provide was Songaila does (tons of minutes at the center spot! JK...) as a backup PF. He's going to be a quality NBA pick and pop guy and will rebound with tenacity.

When I said he'd be this year's Boozer I was only trying to say he's going to fall too far in the draft. That's the only comparion with Boozer I was attempting to make. Never said he'd be as good as Boozer.

If Nocioni can play SF so can Hansbrough. I see him being like Nocioni more so than Songaila. I think Ryan Gomes is another decent comparison. I believe Hansbrough will find a way to score in the NBA.

You are way way wayyyyyyyyyy overrating Hansbrough - as to how he'd fit in the NBA. There's zippy chance he can play the 3 in the NBA. We have a better chance of simultaneously winning $100 million each at Powerball. Even aside from his obvious physical limitations, he's not a good jump shooter. Hansbrough is just not a good pro prospect. At best, he's a Songaila - with a worse perimeter game and better inside game. He might be able to score a bit, but that's it. He's really not that good a rebounder, and he won't be able to defend anyone in the NBA - they won't call the charges he draws in college. And he's really not much like Gomes, either. And the Collison comparison miller made doesn't fit, either. Collison's 2 inches taller, longer, and a much better rebounder. Hansbrough is just not a good pro prospect and should not be a 1st round pick.

I think Songaila is a good comparison. Hansbrough is more athletic and a better interior scorer, but lacks Songaila's money 22-foot jumper. I think Hansbrough can have a decent career as a backup big man. He won't be able to get his shot off against the better defenders in the NBA, but he'll be able to score against most NBA backups. He'll play some decent defense and he'll grab some boards.

I don't think it's a reach to draft him in the 20's. He'll be a reasonably competent backup big man on Day 1. His upside is limited, but there's nothing wrong with having a 10-15 mpg backup big man being paid $1M per year.

[closg00]

Hansbrough is a good pick for deep, playoff teams who don't want to spend 3 years developing a bench/role player. Hansbrough is a guy you'd like to have on your team during the playoffs. 20's is just about right for this guy.

[wizards-fan]

Hansbrough = Eduardo Najera

Question marks for me would be his lack of post moves and strength. If he manages to beef up a little before the draft he could bump himself up a few spots to the mid-20's. Then he will at least look the part of an NBA PF.

[Dat2U]

Dat's Ranking the draft prospects by tiers:

TIER 1

PF Blake Griffin

He's the only potential superstar of this class. From my own eyes, I see alot of Tim Duncan in his demeanor & work ethic and without a doubt, he's a class individual. Clear and away the best prospect and its not even close.

TIER 2

PG Ricky Rubio

He's got the potential to go to a couple of all-star games. A mix of Steve Nash & Jason Kidd. Doesn't have the straight end speed of Kidd or the jumpshot of Nash but he's got good size for the position and he's an underrated defender IMO. Maybe the most skilled player at his age in the draft since LeBron.

TIER 3

PG/SG Tyreke Evans
PF Ed Davis
PG/SG Stephen Curry
PG Ty Lawson
PF/C Greg Monroe

Evans is the 3rd best player in the draft IMO. He's a deluxe combo guard. Good size, great handles and terrific ability to break down defenses off the dribble. Davis & Monroe are diaper dandies who aren't ready for prime time but their length & ability make them intriguing prospects down the road. Davis with his athleticism and Monroe more with his skillset. Lawson is powerful and explosive but lacks height while Curry doesn't have elite athleticism and is a bit scrawny but both will be successful PGs on the next level.

TIER 4

SG Demar DeRozan
SF Earl Clark
PG Eric Maynor
SG James Harden
SG Gerald Henderson
PF/C DeJuan Blair
SG/SF Chase Budinger
PG Jonny Flynn

DeRozan has the highest upside of the remaining prosects. Developing his ballhandling will be the key. Clark & Budinger look like solid role players at the SF spot. Blair is a banger & will be an elite rebounder but he won't score like he did in college. Harden & Henderson tend to be a bit overrated in most mocks but can help a team as a spot starters/6th man types. Maynor & Flynn are undersized PGs with plenty of will and moxie.

TIER 5

C Hasheem Thabeet
PG/SG Jrue Holiday
PG/SG Jeff Teague
PG/SG Willie Warren
PG Brandon Jennings
PF James Johnson
PF Jordan Hill

Many of these names will be drafted higher than they should be. It's anyone's guess to which of these guys will develop to be a real contributor. Thabeet will be completely worthless on offense & doesn't rebound outside his area well. Teague has no clue of how to run a team. Jennings was overmatched overseas. Hill has too little skillset & b-ball IQ to be much more than a rebounder/defender type. Holiday, Johnson & Warren really needed more time in school and more of an opportunity to be the man.

TIER 6

SF Sam Young
PF Tyler Hansbrough
PF/C Craig Brackins
PF Patrick Patterson
PG Darren Collison
PG Patrick Mills
SG Wayne Ellington
PF Josh Heytvelt
SG/SF Terrence Williams
SG Jodie Meeks
SG/SF Danny Green
PG/SG Nick Calathes
SF Omri Casspi
SF Tyler Smith

Out of this group, Young & Hansbrough are the best bets to actually contribute right away. Young is a skilled scorer & Hansbrough can hit the face up J and hustle like no other. Meeks is one-dimensonal but when he's on he can light it up. Heytvelt may be the real sleeper, as he's very skilled for a big man although he's got some skeleton's in his closet. The rest may find a roster to stick on but look like deep bench players more than rotation guys, at least initially.

THE PLEASE GO BACK TO SCHOOL TIER

SF/PF Al-Farouq Aminu
C B.J. Mullens
SF/PF DaJuan Summers
PG Greivis Vasquez

Aminu & Mullens are 1st class busts if they come out. Both have no skill, low b-ball IQ and character issues. They need another 2 years of college, at least! Summers & Vasquez have no business being in the draft. They are marginal NBA prospects who need to come back for their senior seasons and help our local teams next year. If they stay in, they may be playing somewhere like Belgium or Italy next season.

[AgentOvechkin08]

Good job Dat, i dont think i agree with you on some but for the most part good assessment.

[closg00]

Blair declares today, I didn't know this bit of information about him.

Blair's decision also is a gamble partly because he has twice undergone reconstructive knee surgery, a red flag for NBA teams seeking durability in a league where teams play more than twice as many games per season as college teams do.

Also, his weight as been a problem in the past _ the 6-foot-7 Blair weighed more than 300 pounds in high school, but now is about 260.

Blair also sounds a bit naive

Asked what guarantees him of being a first-rounder with the draft 2 1/2 months off and teams still evaluating talent, Blair said, "I'm an Internet freak and I go on all the draft boards, and nobody's got me going second round. That's almost guaranteed to me."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 02143.html

[Rafael122]

Lots of guys declaring the last two days. I think the only ones not 100% are Teague, DeRozan and Taj Gibson.

[fishercob]

Caron Butler gets it:

Butler said he is "not playing for no lottery pick" but he believes that Oklahoma's Blake Griffin, the favorite to go No. 1 in the NBA draft, is the only player from the college ranks who can help the Wizards right away. "We're going to be left with a lot of decisions for the GM, because you have the options. Do you trade a pick? Do you package a player with a pick, all those types of things, and get a quality player? If you look at our window for opportunity, we have a four-year window right now. Guys are not getting no younger. Antawn is 32, I'm 29, Gilbert is 27. DeShawn [Stevenson] is 28. Brendan is approaching 30. The core guys are in the prime of their careers. Right now, we don't have time to have another developing year."

"That's where I stand," Butler said. "If it's not Blake Griffin or somebody that can make an immediate impact, then I would prefer having a veteran come in to help us. The time is now."

Full article by MIke Lee is here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 03122.html

[Rafael122]

Well, he and Jamison also have to understand that Griffin will probably end up eating some of their minutes. If thats what he wants...

[AgentOvechkin08]

You know, a guy that is really starting to interest me is Derozan. He has lebron type athleticism, and that is saying something. The guy can absolutely sky, like head above the rim sky. I dont know exactly how tall he is...6-6, 6-7, probably still growing. Has improved leaps and bounds on his jump shot, and ball handling, from when i first saw him at USC.

He could be a trade down. He is another potential guy but a guy we could pick up in a trade down while dumping salary maybe. He could play the 2 or the 3. He has an NBA ready body, just needs to improve his ball handling and jump shot a bit more and he will be a stud. His potential is limitless with his athletic ability and skill set.

[yungal07]

Thanks Dat2u...that was an excellent breakdown of the draft picks. Honestly, I'm not upset if we leave the draft with Tyreke Evans...that kid has the most potential in the draft behind Griffin. And Derozan is not ready for the NBA...not even close. He'll be unplayable his first 2 seasons in the league because he's so raw.

[BigA]

What's Rubio's status/buyout situation? He doesn't have to declare himself and can just be chosen, even if he stays in Europe for now, right?

[fishercob]

Well, he and Jamison also have to understand that Griffin will probably end up eating some of their minutes. If thats what he wants...

I'd bet dollars to donuts that CB and AJ would happily trim their minutes to add a stud like Griffin. How great would it be if they were playing in the low-mid 30 minute range instead of 40-plus?

[nate33]

Brilliant breakdown Dat2U. EG really needs to put you on his scouting staff.

My only minor disagreement is Ty Lawson. I think he is getting a bit too hyped lately. He's good, but he can't change the reality that he is only 5-11 (if that). There aren't any above-average PG's who are that short. At best, he'll be a Jameer Nelson type of player. I could see drafting him in the 9-15 range, but it would be nuts to draft him in the 4-7 range. I'd definitely take Curry over him.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Hansbrough = Eduardo Najera

Question marks for me would be his lack of post moves and strength. If he manages to beef up a little before the draft he could bump himself up a few spots to the mid-20's. Then he will at least look the part of an NBA PF.

Maybe the best comparison yet.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Dat's Ranking the draft prospects by tiers:

TIER 1

PF Blake Griffin

He's the only potential superstar of this class. From my own eyes, I see alot of Tim Duncan in his demeanor & work ethic and without a doubt, he's a class individual. Clear and away the best prospect and its not even close.

TIER 2

PG Ricky Rubio

He's got the potential to go to a couple of all-star games. A mix of Steve Nash & Jason Kidd. Doesn't have the straight end speed of Kidd or the jumpshot of Nash but he's got good size for the position and he's an underrated defender IMO. Maybe the most skilled player at his age in the draft since LeBron.

TIER 3

PG/SG Tyreke Evans
PF Ed Davis
PG/SG Stephen Curry
PG Ty Lawson
PF/C Greg Monroe

Evans is the 3rd best player in the draft IMO. He's a deluxe combo guard. Good size, great handles and terrific ability to break down defenses off the dribble. Davis & Monroe are diaper dandies who aren't ready for prime time but their length & ability make them intriguing prospects down the road. Davis with his athleticism and Monroe more with his skillset. Lawson is powerful and explosive but lacks height while Curry doesn't have elite athleticism and is a bit scrawny but both will be successful PGs on the next level.

TIER 4

SG Demar DeRozan
SF Earl Clark
PG Eric Maynor
SG James Harden
SG Gerald Henderson
PF/C DeJuan Blair
SG/SF Chase Budinger
PG Jonny Flynn

DeRozan has the highest upside of the remaining prosects. Developing his ballhandling will be the key. Clark & Budinger look like solid role players at the SF spot. Blair is a banger & will be an elite rebounder but he won't score like he did in college. Harden & Henderson tend to be a bit overrated in most mocks but can help a team as a spot starters/6th man types. Maynor & Flynn are undersized PGs with plenty of will and moxie.

TIER 5

C Hasheem Thabeet
PG/SG Jrue Holiday
PG/SG Jeff Teague
PG/SG Willie Warren
PG Brandon Jennings
PF James Johnson
PF Jordan Hill

Many of these names will be drafted higher than they should be. It's anyone's guess to which of these guys will develop to be a real contributor. Thabeet will be completely worthless on offense & doesn't rebound outside his area well. Teague has no clue of how to run a team. Jennings was overmatched overseas. Hill has too little skillset & b-ball IQ to be much more than a rebounder/defender type. Holiday, Johnson & Warren really needed more time in school and more of an opportunity to be the man.

TIER 6

SF Sam Young
PF Tyler Hansbrough
PF/C Craig Brackins
PF Patrick Patterson
PG Darren Collison
PG Patrick Mills
SG Wayne Ellington
PF Josh Heytvelt
SG/SF Terrence Williams
SG Jodie Meeks
SG/SF Danny Green
PG/SG Nick Calathes
SF Omri Casspi
SF Tyler Smith

Out of this group, Young & Hansbrough are the best bets to actually contribute right away. Young is a skilled scorer & Hansbrough can hit the face up J and hustle like no other. Meeks is one-dimensonal but when he's on he can light it up. Heytvelt may be the real sleeper, as he's very skilled for a big man although he's got some skeleton's in his closet. The rest may find a roster to stick on but look like deep bench players more than rotation guys, at least initially.

THE PLEASE GO BACK TO SCHOOL TIER

SF/PF Al-Farouq Aminu
C B.J. Mullens
SF/PF DaJuan Summers
PG Greivis Vasquez

Aminu & Mullens are 1st class busts if they come out. Both have no skill, low b-ball IQ and character issues. They need another 2 years of college, at least! Summers & Vasquez have no business being in the draft. They are marginal NBA prospects who need to come back for their senior seasons and help our local teams next year. If they stay in, they may be playing somewhere like Belgium or Italy next season.

Dat, even when I "had no life" I couldn't break it down like this.

Best draft synopsis I've seen by anybody not getting paid to do this. I agree with nate that the Wizards scouting staff could use you.

From your list, the guys I think could help the Wizards right away are your top 3 tier guys, with the exception of "diaper dandies" Monroe and Davis. Outside of Griffin, useful right away would be Evans, Rubio's rights, Curry, or Lawson.

Couple guys you rate a little lower I also think could help the Wizards would be Young, Maynor, Green, and Calathes. I think at least a couple of them will be available in round 2, along with guys like Jack McClinton and Demarre Carroll. Also, even though they might not fit what the Wizards need I'd rate Derozan, Patterson, Thabeet, and Terrence Williams a bit higher. Derozan's too athletic to miss in the NBA IMO.

Outside of elite talents Griffin and Evans, the team can use floor leaders with quicks who can defend or who have a penchant for hitting big shots. For that reason I won't be too unhappy if the Wizards trade down for Curry or Lawson.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Brilliant breakdown Dat2U. EG really needs to put you on his scouting staff.

My only minor disagreement is Ty Lawson. I think he is getting a bit too hyped lately. He's good, but he can't change the reality that he is only 5-11 (if that). There aren't any above-average PG's who are that short. At best, he'll be a Jameer Nelson type of player. I could see drafting him in the 9-15 range, but it would be nuts to draft him in the 4-7 range. I'd definitely take Curry over him.

Nate Robinson forgives you.

Chris Paul is just freakish in skill level and athleticism, at about 6-0.

Some real effective under 6' guards are Brevin Knight, Jose Juan Barea, and DJ Augustin. I'd say Lawson's as good as any of these guys. I believe there are the rare exception of above average little men.

I do agree with you, nate, that 9-15 makes a bit more sense for where he's picked. However, he really would fit a need with the Wizards in light of Gilbert's knee issue and Mike James or Javaris Crittenton being the alternatives.

And I also agree nate that I'd take Curry over Lawson because I think Curry's got PG skills in addition to being a volume scorer.

[Ruzious]

Brilliant breakdown Dat2U. EG really needs to put you on his scouting staff.

My only minor disagreement is Ty Lawson. I think he is getting a bit too hyped lately. He's good, but he can't change the reality that he is only 5-11 (if that). There aren't any above-average PG's who are that short. At best, he'll be a Jameer Nelson type of player. I could see drafting him in the 9-15 range, but it would be nuts to draft him in the 4-7 range. I'd definitely take Curry over him.

Nate Robinson forgives you.

Chris Paul is just freakish in skill level and athleticism, at about 6-0.

Some real effective under 6' guards are Brevin Knight, Jose Juan Barea, and DJ Augustin. I'd say Lawson's as good as any of these guys. I believe there are the rare exception of above average little men.

I do agree with you, nate, that 9-15 makes a bit more sense for where he's picked. However, he really would fit a need with the Wizards in light of Gilbert's knee issue and Mike James or Javaris Crittenton being the alternatives.

And I also agree nate that I'd take Curry over Lawson because I think Curry's got PG skills in addition to being a volume scorer.

Good call, CCJ - though I disagree on the last paragraph. Besides that, Lawson got measured in last year's pre-draft camp, and he was 5'10.75 without shoes, so he's 6' in NBA terminology. And he's a better talent and more of a natural PG than Nelson - who's a pretty good player, btw, but who had to learn to think pass over shoot.