The RealGM Wizards Board Draft Thread 2008/2009

[Ed Wood]

Jumping Headlong off that Ledge and into the NBA Draft

The Wizards are exactly one game into this NBA season, and it was a loss to the Nets. The team has a roster that's propelled it into the playoffs each of the last four years, but beyond the first round only once, and that was against a Bulls team pretty similar to the squad that managed to pick first in last years draft. Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison are a triumvirate of talent as unstoppable as any in the NBA, except by injuries, those'll stop them by December. We have eighty games of Wizards basketball to look forward to but we lost to the Nets.

So, what's a fan to do when the local team looks like it might be in for a rough year? Stop watching, stop caring? Stop overreacting? Short of sticking a fork up your nose and manually rebooting I'm not sure that's an option for most of us, so options are we left with? What a silly question! It's always a good time to complain about Eddie Jordan look ahead to the draft!

What's Up with the Tread?

This is the Wizards board draft talk thread for the next year or until ya'll fill it with so many fawning tributes to my uncanny scouting eye that we reach the page limit. Within this thread goes whatever thoughts or questions you might have about the draft, about draft eligible prospects, eligible draft prospects, and general drafting philosophy. Feel free to evaluate prospects in whatever manner you so desire, after all Doc likes to read horoscopes, CCJ uses stats and I'm from the future, and we all manage to get things right every once in a while. But if you want to be a huge nerd take a look at some of these fine links before forming your opinions.

Draftexpress:
A nice draft site with everything from scouting reports to detailed statistics.
NBAdraft.net:
How much do you love Connor Atchley?
John Hollinger's Statistical Method of Prospect Evaluation:
The Big Sexy explains why math makes Adam Morrison terrible.
The Second Draft Thread from 07/08:
A pale shade of the Ed Wood produced first thread, but a good read nonetheless.

You again? Are draft threads all you do?

No, I broke the news of Mike Halls signing way back in 05/06. Thanks for asking!

So, let's get fantasizing, I'll start us off:

Name: Austin Daye
Position: Small Forward/ Power Forward
Height: 6'10”
Weight: 200 lbs
Current Affiliation: Gonzaga University
Date of Birth: 06/05/1988

Why he's fly:
You might not know it, hidden as he is in the Western Athletic Conference and having played less than twenty minutes a contest during his freshman year but Austin Daye is a BAMF. Austin is already the most talented player on a pretty talented Bulldog squad, and this fact should become increasingly evident as he's given more burn and a more featured role this year, even if Mark Few continues to emphasize court balance with his deep roster.

Daye will almost certainly find himself checking power forwards most of the time in college, but with such a slight frame, and a perimeter oriented game, small forward would seem to be his best fit at the next level. Daye is a good athlete with more than enough height for the position, and the the agility and coordination to take advantage of it. Last year he managed the second best rate of blocks in his conference, and a more than respectable defensive rebounding rate as well. Some scouts are less than impressed with his defensive fundamentals, however, so he might have to make an adjustment this year in order to sell evaluators on his NBA readiness.

Offensively Daye is equally impressive. He's already a solid shooter, with the range to score from anywhere, and the form to do so with consistency. Daye demands constant defensive attention because of that range but is unfortunately less effective when taking outside shots on the move. He's not a shooting specialist necessarily, he shot less than two three point shots a game last year, but he hit 41% of those he took and is already so reliable at the line (88%) that there's every reason to be optimistic going forward. Daye is a good ball handler for his size, but not yet better than good, and while he can score in the post it's not terribly hard to push someone as thin as he is away from the basket.

Gonzaga has a lot of talent this year, particularly on the offensive end, so while Daye might be the best of the bunch, particularly when viewed as a pro prospect a opposed to a college player, but the Zags might not need much help scoring, so don't expect a statistical explosion. But Daye is too good not to be a big part of even a good college team, and should be the same in the NBA one day.

Quick Comparison: Rashard Lewis

[closg00]

[mhd]

By far the biggest need is a young PG.

[MJG]

By far the biggest need is a young PG.

Definitely. We're about seven months too early for me to have any knowledge of any of the prospects, but we absolutely must take whoever the best PG on the board is in this draft.

[fugop]

Two of my Louisville guys are going to be worth watching, Earl Clark and Terrance Williams. Clark is athletic, long, and skilled. He's a perimeter big with a developing post game and a solid interior presence on the defensive end. Williams is a phenomenal athlete, excellent court vision and skill, who still suffers from poor shot selection. Williams could easily be an Iguodala type player, Clark a Bosh type player. Both are capable of being lottery picks, Clark high to mid, Williams mid to low.

[spaceman_E]

2010 looks like a much better draft for PGs with Ricky Rubio and John Wall (HS SR) leading the way. If we took one this year it would likely be an inexperienced prospect(Brandon Jennings) or an older guy with questionable potential (Collison, Lawson).
It really depends on which slot we get in the draft and whether or not we make a deal in season. It goes without saying that we will have a much better idea of our needs in April, but I don't see a PG prospect on the board I would draft without question.

If we end up around where we were last season 17-23, I think Tyler Hansbrough would make a really nice replacement for Songaila. Slightly undersized with shortish arms but works hard, plays smart, can rebound, and decent athleticism for a white boy. He isn't the usual raw, athletic wonder, hit or miss pick Ernie has made in years past but it's probably good to mix it up a bit.

[FreeBalling]

By far the biggest need is a young PG.

Definitely. We're about seven months too early for me to have any knowledge of any of the prospects, but we absolutely must take whoever the best PG on the board is in this draft.

What are the chances he's a 7 footer?

[go'stags]

A few guys Im keeping my eye on ...

Grevis Vasquez
Amazing court vision, great passing ability, but questionable decision making.

Patrick Patterson
I think we could use a bulldog, scoring, shorter PF. He has good hands and finishes well.

Earl Clark
Probably my favorite prospect in this draft. Can play either fowrd position, good passer, excellent **** blocker, good rebounder, improving shooter, good ball handler, good quickness.

[spaceman_E]

I think we could use a bulldog, scoring, shorter PF. He has good hands and finishes well.

Exactly why I like Hansbrough. He would make a really nice energy PF off the bench, shoots FTs at like 80%, and could play right away. AJ/Wood with Blatche, Mcgee and TH would make a nice bigs rotation for next year.

Vasquez is also pretty interesting in that he could be an AD type backup PG. Not quite the 1st step Daniels used to possess but better playmaker and better outside shot. Average defender, but he's got the size to let Gil slide to the 2 at times as well. Depending on the hype he gets he also could be had late 1st/2nd round too.

[go'stags]

I'm just not a big fan of Hansborough. Short arms, isnt that skilled, he bullies his way to buckets in college but he wont be able to do that in the pros.

[mohammed10]

I'm just not a big fan of Hansborough. Short arms, isnt that skilled, he bullies his way to buckets in college but he wont be able to do that in the pros.

+1

[spaceman_E]

He also has a jumper though. I'm not expecting him to score like he does in college but he will score on offensive boards, dunks off of drives and can knock down a few from the perimeter. He plays smart, can pass out of the post and grab rebounds on both sides. I don't expect him to be a star or even a starter but a more efficient, more effective songaila. I.E. a role player.
Although, at the same time I once got in an argument with a friend who disagreed that Hansborough was more Mark Madsen than Kenyon Martin.

[doclinkin]

As far as potential point guards I like Greivis pretty well, despite flaws, but I'm most interested in the aborigine assassin Patrick Mills (St. Marys) and Del Curry's boy Stephen.

Both have big league quaility skill, Patty Mills scorched the US olympicsquad for 20 points, Stephen Curry's jumper is slick as a silk jockstrap and despite puny size and babyface plays decent defense makes smart passes etc.

NIck Calathes of Florida has interesting stats, but I haven't seen enough to know if I like his play.

Here's hoping the Grizz steal a playoff spot.

[doclinkin]

I'm also keeping an eye on Sergio Llull (pronounced 'Yule') in the spanish league.

[Arenas4Three]

I like Physco T but he is a late 1st round- early 2nd round pick. If this team continues to play like crap, we'll be a lottery team. I agree that PG is our biggest need but I also think we can look at a swingman that could play the SG or SF spot.

But I like James Harden, Earl Clark, Steph Curry, and Brandon Jennings.

[Ruzious]

The Wiz should go after the best player available - period - regardless of position. They need to get a stud - not just someone to fill a need.

I'd love to believe that Vasquez is a top prospect, but I think he'll have a harder time sticking in the NBA than Steve Blake did. He' ain't a PG - sorry. He's wayyyyyy too error prone - and not just because of poor decision-making; he's not a good ball-handler. AND, he's not as quick or fast as almost every NBA PG. So, you put him at the 2... he's a poor outside shooter at this point, he's not an explosive athlete, and he's on the skinny side.

Ricky Rubio may be great for his age, but he reminds me too much of Luke Ridnour - makes the flashy pass and can play in a running game, but he can't shoot or defend - from what I saw in the Olympics. The fact that he's been talked about as a possible 1st pick in the draft is a very bad sign for the talent available in the next draft.

Hansbrough - no. He's a 6'7ish PF who won't be able to defend in the NBA. Kudos to him for over-achieving in college, but he won't get it done in the NBA.

There are always a few underrated guys who step up big - but I don't know who they are for the next draft. I think Thabeet will. And if he's the best, you pick him - even if you're pleased with Haywood and the rookie.

[mhd]

Thabeet won't be around. IMO, he's a top 5 lock. Teams don't pass on 7+ monsters who board and block shots. He's also thick.

SF could be an option, and Earl Clark makes sense in that respect.

[rockymac52]

Thabeet won't be around. IMO, he's a top 5 lock. Teams don't pass on 7+ monsters who board and block shots. He's also thick.

SF could be an option, and Earl Clark makes sense in that respect.

tell that to DeAndre Jordan

[doclinkin]

The Wiz should go after the best player available - period - regardless of position. They need to get a stud - not just someone to fill a need.

I'd love to believe that Vasquez is a top prospect, but I think he'll have a harder time sticking in the NBA than Steve Blake did. He' ain't a PG - sorry. He's wayyyyyy too error prone - and not just because of poor decision-making; he's not a good ball-handler. AND, he's not as quick or fast as almost every NBA PG. So, you put him at the 2... he's a poor outside shooter at this point, he's not an explosive athlete, and he's on the skinny side.

Ricky Rubio may be great for his age, but he reminds me too much of Luke Ridnour - makes the flashy pass and can play in a running game, but he can't shoot or defend - from what I saw in the Olympics. The fact that he's been talked about as a possible 1st pick in the draft is a very bad sign for the talent available in the next draft.

Hansbrough - no. He's a 6'7ish PF who won't be able to defend in the NBA. Kudos to him for over-achieving in college, but he won't get it done in the NBA.

There are always a few underrated guys who step up big - but I don't know who they are for the next draft. I think Thabeet will. And if he's the best, you pick him - even if you're pleased with Haywood and the rookie.

I agree with the philosophy of 'best available', though I occasionally argue with myself if that means best available Talent or best available Player. EG takes best talent it seems.

On little Ricky -- the youth is part of the argument though. He's no Sebastian Telfair, he's a young kid playing in a grown man's league-- in the second toughest league in the world, where you play only when you can help the team win no matter what age you are. And he's been earning court time since he was what 15?

I see the Luke Ridnour argument, but Ricky has long arms and a lanky frame that may well develop. I see him potentially developing into a rich man's Steve Blake (though agreed he needs to work on the 'pesky' in his defense). Now whether that translates into a top 5 potential I dunno. But still, his top end potential is Maravich-esque. It's tough to teach court vision, you either have it ---or you spend your whole career with one team developing continuity and chemistry and etc... (ad nauseum). I expect his stock to slip somewhat by draft time anyway. The season hasn't startted yet. BUt I don't have disdain for little Ricky.

As for best available, that's the thing, as of right now as many as six possible lotto picks are Points. (In the DX mock for instance). There are few terrible years for the draft, especially now that the Euro league teams are a reliable option. Good talent exists. This year may prove to have the best depth at the One. Depending how far down you draft, 'Best available' often comes down to that: if the draft is deep at one position.

Greivis. Probably a moot point this year. I think he stays four, and I expect him to improve as a court general as he takes on more responsibility. Passion is another thing that is tough to teach though, as Big John always says, he'd rather have a guy he has to cool off than one he has to try to light a fire under. I think he could become a good pro.

Thabeet is an early pick. I expect even without a starting PG or Center we don't suck bad enough to get the Big 'Beat-down.

[closg00]

Well, we are on-pace for picking in the next lottery. Did they change the lottery rules after the Miami tanking season last-year?

In any case, I will start paying attention to DX and NBAdraft.net a-lot sooner than last year.
http://www.draftexpress.com/