The Dominic McGuire Problem?

[doclinkin]

no prob, always thinking, me.

[hands11]

I'm surprised this hasn't been merged yet. This is all in the long term plan thread.

[doclinkin]

I'm surprised this hasn't been merged yet. This is all in the long term plan thread.

Or the Dom McGuire appreciation thread. Got to put that in the links thread...

[tkunit]

Trade Caron for a real 2 guard. I can feel the hate already but that is what we should do.

Who did you have in mind? Who is good enough and young enough (and available enough) to be considered in a trade? This hypothetical SG should also have a good contract..

Behold my dilemma. I just don't see how the team can really flourish running caron at the 2. He just doesn't have the game for it, I hate seeing him with the ball outside the 3 point line. Maybe things change with gil back, but butler needs to be catching it in the post or high post for his little pull up game. None of this dribble dribble crap he has been doing all year. I understand it is a product of where the team is right now. Butler at the 3 being the third option and doing what he does best I'm ok with, butler at the 2 dribbling and sucking I am not. Some people want to move AJ as the big shake up I want to move butler.

As for guards I'd move him for either straight up or in a package, it would be either an all around guard that can let gil play off the ball some, or a straight 3 point bomber. Players on my list are Mike Miller, Johnson, Terry, Barbosa. Some what farther out there are Iggy, and Roy. I also really like Green but he is on the rookie scale making it hard. Has anyone talked about a deal with the magic for Hedo. We send Bulter and something for the newly signed Hedo run him at the 3 with Dom at the 2? In closing I need more time Nate

[Dat2U]

I think this thread is mistitled. It should be called "The DeShawn Stevenson problem".

McGuire has the starting job, he shoud keep it. Right now he's the best option alongside our all offense, no defense trio. His rebounding, length, versatility & ability to guard multiple positions are assets that aren't provided by anyone else on the roster. Caron may be playing the SG position, but as doc points out, its mostly in name only. McGuire has the ball skills to function alongside a true SF like Caron and shot is definitely improving.

The problem is what we do with DeShawn when we start training camp next year? If Nick & DeShawn are still here (and DeShawn will likely have to be b/c he'll be tough to trade) then one of them will get squeezed out for minutes.

People forget that DeShawn was supposed to be nothing more than a stop gap. That gap has now been filled by someone better. McGuire may not hit the 3 or nail open shots like DeShawn did for a year & half but he brings so much more to the table.

[LyricalRico]

McGuire has the starting job, he shoud keep it. Right now he's the best option alongside our all offense, no defense trio. His rebounding, length, versatility & ability to guard multiple positions are assets that aren't provided by anyone else on the roster. Caron may be playing the SG position, but as doc points out, its mostly in name only. McGuire has the ball skills to function alongside a true SF like Caron and shot is definitely improving.

Agreed. And the return of Arenas/Haywood is only going to make his contributions that much more meaningful.

The problem is what we do with DeShawn when we start training camp next year? If Nick & DeShawn are still here (and DeShawn will likely have to be b/c he'll be tough to trade) then one of them will get squeezed out for minutes.

I think opportunities for deals will be out there. We've been focusing on trading guys like Stevenson and Songaila for 2010 expirings. Yes, that will be difficult. But if we can't do that, I'm not against trading them for other bad contracts if it helps consolidate our rotation.

[dlts20]

Im the biggest Dom fan there is but if were fully healthy next year then you need to start Deshawn. Again, I swear everyone forgets how good this cat was when we were all healthy. I thought he was maybe the best role player in the leauge that 1st year. Shooting 50% from the field, 40% from the 3pt line, over 80% from the FT line, and was one of the best perimiter defenders in the league. I also felt that it was his great passing skill that made Caron and Gil start to make better passes. Deshawn was the 1st one. He also had the ability to play the point when needed. How come everyone forgets that. He did all of that even with a slow start that year. After like the first 10 games, he probably shot close to 60% the rest of the year and 50% from the 3pt line until we got hurt late. It seemed like he never missed.

That's not true. He started off shooting about 50% but his FG% actually dwindled in the 2nd half of the season.

The bottom line is that I have always felt that the young guys would look 10x better with Gil on the floor and we all know that no matter what, Deshawn will still get some minutes.

Exactly. But if DMac is already playing well now, think of how good he'll look with Arenas around.

Nate, I think your wrong. He started off really slow with us and was missing everything and then he was great the rest of the year. He didnt tail off until like the final 8-10 games or so. It wasnt a big portion of the 2nd half. I wouldnt be totaly upset with Dom starting as long as its at the 2 but its just something we have to see to really judge. You would think you need another 3pt shooter on the floor to stretch the D like Deshawn was doing so great that year but on the other half we do have AJ who is a 4 that can stretch the D so that probably is enough along with Gil while we have Caron & Dmac slashing

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Dom at SG has a HUGE advantage over DeShawn.

Rebounds! He grabs at least 3 times the rebounds Stevenson does. Having 2 or 3 rebounds vs 7 or 8 makes a huge difference.

McGuire can cover the perimeter IMO better than DeShawn and he rebounds on the defense so well that he increases possessions. DeShawn is a streaky good three point shooter. I remember DeShawn at his finest last season, especially in the wins over Boston. However, Dominic did the same thing covering Chris Paul.

When you look at his ability to block shots, rebound, distribute, and move his feet on the perimeter I see McGuire is a big upgrade over Stevenson.

[closg00]

I think this thread is mistitled. It should be called "The DeShawn Stevenson problem".

[Ruzious]

Im the biggest Dom fan there is but if were fully healthy next year then you need to start Deshawn. Again, I swear everyone forgets how good this cat was when we were all healthy. I thought he was maybe the best role player in the leauge that 1st year. Shooting 50% from the field, 40% from the 3pt line, over 80% from the FT line, and was one of the best perimiter defenders in the league. I also felt that it was his great passing skill that made Caron and Gil start to make better passes. Deshawn was the 1st one. He also had the ability to play the point when needed. How come everyone forgets that. He did all of that even with a slow start that year. After like the first 10 games, he probably shot close to 60% the rest of the year and 50% from the 3pt line until we got hurt late. It seemed like he never missed. Also, if you have the big 3 & Wood then most likely you will need someone with 3pt range to stretch the D.

That way you can still keep Dom off the bench with his energy. With that being said, we all have to wait and see. Deshawn may still suck and I wouldnt be shocked if Dom & Caron look a ton better with Gil on the floor pushing the rock. I still think that if Dom does start though then it should be at the 2 or were still hurting ourselves. Tap is just an idiot. If he switched now then Caron would be a monster while Dom would still be getting the wide open shots and driving so why not make the move? Are they that dumb. The bottom line is that I have always felt that the young guys would look 10x better with Gil on the floor and we all know that no matter what, Deshawn will still get some minutes. That means that Deshawn almost has to start or you will have 2 SG's on the bench and a PG in Critt. Thats even if were able to get rid of James. If not then you will have like 20 guards on the bench and no SF's. It just makes more sense to start Deshawn but also dont got down in flames with him like our other idiot coaches have.

You're right that Stevenson was a heckuva role player last year - before his knees swoll up from playing too many minutes - because the team couldn't afford a full roster or to sign anyone when injuries hit. He was sort of an EG cap victim. But people forget he was the Zard's best guard last season - by far for a good portion of the season. Even though he's not old, I get the impression that his knees and body (with the back issues) have aged quite a bit, and I wouldn't count on him regaining his old form. If he does, then it's a bonus.

I'd call this thread the Dominic McGuire Opportunity.

[doclinkin]

I totally disagree with everyone.

Everyone? Well now you're just being unfriendly.

I still think that if Dom does start though then it should be at the 2 or were still hurting ourselves. Tap is just an idiot. If he switched now then Caron would be a monster while Dom would still be getting the wide open shots and driving so why not make the move? Are they that dumb.

Caron's only real problem right now is that he's playing lazy because he doesn't want to risk an injury in a pointless effort. He's not attacking the hoop like he used to and often plays a passing/facilitating role. You're right in saying all that will change when Gil is back on court and we're raising the stakes back to Playoff intensity. But as for the switching, it's happening all the time. Granted it doesn't run with the same efficiency as when EJ/AD were directing the flow, but that's just feeling the lack of a PG and Head Coach who are experienced in the system and cognizant of the mismatches available.

Granted, with a new system we have no idea what this team will look like. Dom will need to have a better jumper if we're running standard pro set pick and roll packages. Or else he'll have to be able to finish better at the rim when contested. Or both.

But fact is you don't disagree with _everybody_ since you're saying alot of what I just said. We have no idea what player DeSteve will be if he takes the knife, we do know he was gawdsawful this year suffering from the slipped disc or whatever.

Personally I think this squad plus the right draft pick could play pretty well together, depending on coach and system. If all we got out of this year was solid development out of DMac and the addition of some promising future talent (Critt and JaVale. Plus the pick) well seems to me that's ultimately a step forward. Remains to be seen if the coaching change will have been a step forward or back. But, right, compare DMac at age 23 to DSteve at age 23 (as a 5th year veteran since he was a prep-to-pro kid) and DMac is already better in every category.

Link.

McGuire is just starting to improve (racking double doubles and hitting hit stride on offense) but no matter what, his upside at this point in his career projects to be well better than DeSteve -- even at his uninjured peak. I like and respect DSteve in his role, at his best, but I'd roll with DMac over the long term from now on, with no pangs or hesitation.

[pancakes3]

as great as DMac rebounds, as efficient as he shoots, and as versatile defensively as he is, DMac just doesn't produce enough for me to clamor for him to start next season. In doc's filter of recent games we can see the improved shooting percentages but they basically have a handful of great games by Maguire, a handful of 0'fer stinkers, and a bunch of 5-5 games. Well, for an NBA player to be playing 25-30 mpg, 5'5 isn't going to cut it. I do like the fact that he's progressed this season but i don't think he's developed enough to be upgraded to starter material. I think the only reason DMac's play of late looks so good is because it's only compared to the even less incremental improvement of N1. However, if Dmac can continue to improve and finish April averaging somewhere in the neighborhood of 8/8 or even 10/7, I'd be more inclined to jump on the Start DMac Bandwagon.

And to all of you who say it's crazy for a SG to snag 8 boards a game, it's also insane to start a SG who has shot 3/10 on three-pointers through 125 career games. DMac's hook is that he rebounds - let's see some production.

and to conclude on an upside: i think DMac has the potential to raise his offensive game over the summer. last year he shot a laughable 43.8% from the FT line and this season it's at a respectable 70.3. Obviously he's been practicing. The mastery of the midrange jumper is well within his reach.

[doclinkin]

as great as DMac rebounds, as efficient as he shoots, and as versatile defensively as he is, DMac just doesn't produce enough for me to clamor for him to start next season. In doc's filter of recent games we can see the improved shooting percentages but they basically have a handful of great games by Maguire, a handful of 0'fer stinkers, and a bunch of 5-5 games. Well, for an NBA player to be playing 25-30 mpg, 5'5 isn't going to cut it. I do like the fact that he's progressed this season but i don't think he's developed enough to be upgraded to starter material. I think the only reason DMac's play of late looks so good is because it's only compared to the even less incremental improvement of N1. However, if Dmac can continue to improve and finish April averaging somewhere in the neighborhood of 8/8 or even 10/7, I'd be more inclined to jump on the Start DMac Bandwagon.

And to all of you who say it's crazy for a SG to snag 8 boards a game, it's also insane to start a SG who has shot 3/10 on three-pointers through 125 career games. DMac's hook is that he rebounds - let's see some production.

and to conclude on an upside: i think DMac has the potential to raise his offensive game over the summer. last year he shot a laughable 43.8% from the FT line and this season it's at a respectable 70.3. Obviously he's been practicing. The mastery of the midrange jumper is well within his reach.

Upside, right. But I wouldn't discount that recent production. The sort shows a run of double-digit scoring that had never been hinted at last year, or even early this year when he still looked offensively hopeless. Or 'Hopla-less' maybe. Sure you want more than 5-8 shooting, most of the time, but when it comes with 14 boards 3 dimes and 3 blocks, there's not a lot more you can ask of a role-player.

I look at it like this, as CCJ alluded to (or alluded to me alluding to) recall that stretch of games the last couple years when old O-face was here-- whenever he scored 10 points or more the Wiz would win. That's the effect Dom can have with this team, and he's just started to learn to score. Do I want him to be the same player as Jared? Hell no. I'm just saying if he continues to show improvement, then that's a fine starting point.

Consider Jared's last year with the Wiz next to Dom this year. Here.

[nate33]

as great as DMac rebounds, as efficient as he shoots, and as versatile defensively as he is, DMac just doesn't produce enough for me to clamor for him to start next season. In doc's filter of recent games we can see the improved shooting percentages but they basically have a handful of great games by Maguire, a handful of 0'fer stinkers, and a bunch of 5-5 games. Well, for an NBA player to be playing 25-30 mpg, 5'5 isn't going to cut it. I do like the fact that he's progressed this season but i don't think he's developed enough to be upgraded to starter material. I think the only reason DMac's play of late looks so good is because it's only compared to the even less incremental improvement of N1. However, if Dmac can continue to improve and finish April averaging somewhere in the neighborhood of 8/8 or even 10/7, I'd be more inclined to jump on the Start DMac Bandwagon.

I don't think anybody really disagrees with you here. Clearly, DMac is the worst player among Arenas, Butler, Jamison and Haywood. The "Big 4" are legit starting-caliber players on just about any team in the league. DMac is not. The only reason we're having this conversation is because there is such a dropoff between our 4th best player and our 5th best player.

That said, I agree with the general consensus that DMac has surpassed Stevenson. DMac deserves to be our 5th starter unless some other roster changes are made this offseason.

[nate33]

As for guards I'd move him for either straight up or in a package, it would be either an all around guard that can let gil play off the ball some, or a straight 3 point bomber. Players on my list are Mike Miller, Johnson, Terry, Barbosa. Some what farther out there are Iggy, and Roy. I also really like Green but he is on the rookie scale making it hard. Has anyone talked about a deal with the magic for Hedo. We send Bulter and something for the newly signed Hedo run him at the 3 with Dom at the 2? In closing I need more time Nate

Wow! You really DO need to put down the haterade if you really believe that Miller, Terry or Barbosa are equivalent to Butler.

And I don't understand the notion of trading Butler for Hedo. Rico brought it up too. Exactly how does that help us? Turkaglu is just as much of a pure SF as Butler, which presents us with the same problem of two pure SF's and no pure SG. (The only difference is that Butler is better than Turkaglu.)

[tkunit]

As for guards I'd move him for either straight up or in a package, it would be either an all around guard that can let gil play off the ball some, or a straight 3 point bomber. Players on my list are Mike Miller, Johnson, Terry, Barbosa. Some what farther out there are Iggy, and Roy. I also really like Green but he is on the rookie scale making it hard. Has anyone talked about a deal with the magic for Hedo. We send Bulter and something for the newly signed Hedo run him at the 3 with Dom at the 2? In closing I need more time Nate

Wow! You really DO need to put down the haterade if you really believe that Miller, Terry or Barbosa are equivalent to Butler.

And I don't understand the notion of trading Butler for Hedo. Rico brought it up too. Exactly how does that help us? Turkaglu is just as much of a pure SF as Butler, which presents us with the same problem of two pure SF's and no pure SG. (The only difference is that Butler is better than Turkaglu.)

I don't really hate butler and to be clear I wouldn't trade him straight up for miller, terry or barbosa I'd want more back from those teams. I think the difference between dom/caron and dom/ Hedo is the outside shot. dom and caron are much more similar than dom and hedo.

[barelyawake]

But, right, compare DMac at age 23 to DSteve at age 23 (as a 5th year veteran since he was a prep-to-pro kid) and DMac is already better in every category.

I'll do you one better. While we are comparin' stats and prescribing how many x stats a player must have to start, can we first please review Bruce Bowen's NBA career? His age, progression, stats, rings, starts, All-Defensive teams etc... Say compare Dom at 23 with Bowen at 29.

I got nothin' but love for Dom. The man will develop. Smart players distribute. Tough players defend and rebound. He's both.

[spaceman_E]

Trade Caron for a real 2 guard. I can feel the hate already but that is what we should do.

Who did you have in mind? Who is good enough and young enough (and available enough) to be considered in a trade? This hypothetical SG should also have a good contract.

I'm with you that there just don't seem to be any SGs that would match for Caron, so why not look to the draft? Two possible scenarios I can see....

1. Draft Harden with our pick(3 or 4 perhaps) and trade Caron to either dump contracts or whatever else we feel we need(a shooter and a vet pg or c?) Harden might not be a star but he seems pretty NBA ready and in a year or two will be able to drop 15-18 with good %'s and all around numbers at the SG position.

2. Keep our pick but deal Caron for a top 5 pick and change. Again, draft Harden but in this scenario we could also end up with Griffin or Monroe.

Either deal would probably make us TOO young but Harden really seems like a roy/butler as a SG type of player to me and would make a good replacement if we were trying to open a starting spot for Dmac.
Heck, we could even draft Harden with our pick and then deal Butler and Jamison for Bosh in some sort of 3 way deal and run Arenas Harden Dmac Bosh Wood. That would be a good, young lineup, esp. with Mcgee ready to step in a couple years down the road.

[spaceman_E]

Also, while we're here, can we give some love to Mr. Ernie Grunfeld for finding this guy? He certainly has an eye for talent, in the 2nd round at least. Another reason it's going to double suck when we sell off our 2nd rounder this year.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

as great as DMac rebounds, as efficient as he shoots, and as versatile defensively as he is, DMac just doesn't produce enough for me to clamor for him to start next season. In doc's filter of recent games we can see the improved shooting percentages but they basically have a handful of great games by Maguire, a handful of 0'fer stinkers, and a bunch of 5-5 games. Well, for an NBA player to be playing 25-30 mpg, 5'5 isn't going to cut it. I do like the fact that he's progressed this season but i don't think he's developed enough to be upgraded to starter material. I think the only reason DMac's play of late looks so good is because it's only compared to the even less incremental improvement of N1. However, if Dmac can continue to improve and finish April averaging somewhere in the neighborhood of 8/8 or even 10/7, I'd be more inclined to jump on the Start DMac Bandwagon.

And to all of you who say it's crazy for a SG to snag 8 boards a game, it's also insane to start a SG who has shot 3/10 on three-pointers through 125 career games. DMac's hook is that he rebounds - let's see some production.

and to conclude on an upside: i think DMac has the potential to raise his offensive game over the summer. last year he shot a laughable 43.8% from the FT line and this season it's at a respectable 70.3. Obviously he's been practicing. The mastery of the midrange jumper is well within his reach.

Upside, right. But I wouldn't discount that recent production. The sort shows a run of double-digit scoring that had never been hinted at last year, or even early this year when he still looked offensively hopeless. Or 'Hopla-less' maybe. Sure you want more than 5-8 shooting, most of the time, but when it comes with 14 boards 3 dimes and 3 blocks, there's not a lot more you can ask of a role-player.

I look at it like this, as CCJ alluded to (or alluded to me alluding to) recall that stretch of games the last couple years when old O-face was here-- whenever he scored 10 points or more the Wiz would win. That's the effect Dom can have with this team, and he's just started to learn to score. Do I want him to be the same player as Jared? Hell no. I'm just saying if he continues to show improvement, then that's a fine starting point.

Consider Jared's last year with the Wiz next to Dom this year. Here.

Looking forward with Dom, I see a guy who's form is getting better on his jumper by leaps and bounds. McGuire is able to hit a three, but is just very reluctant to take them. (2 for 4 on the season) Dom can leap high enough to score around the basket, and he'll be a good enough shooter that teams will have to cover him. I see his physical tools and his ability to pass the ball and I see no reason he won't make the leap as a player like Diaw did offensively.

Jared scored on putback dunks, and on an occasional jumper here and there. As doc alluded to, when Jared scored 10 or more that season you could pretty much put that in the bank as a Wizards win. That's going to also be true with McGuire in the future IMO.

pancakes and dlts20, what doc's stats above on Jeffries vs McGuire's production don't mention is that Jared's "offense" and assist rates came playing next to a healthy Arenas and with Brendan, in EJ's very fluid offense. Dom's playing with a jump shooting team that virtually has no PG.

Next season with Gil and Haywood on the team, and not playing with a bunch of young guys and no PG, McGuire's going to be A LOT BETTER.