"Looking Ahead": Wiz @ Grizz

fishercob · Post #1 » by **fishercob** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 2:21 am

Everyone will be thinking about Thursday's matchup with the Travs. That and no Gil would be great excuse for a tanktastically delicious loss...

Ed Wood · Post #2 » by **Ed Wood** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 2:33 am

I mean this in absolutely the nicest way but there is no player in the NBA for whom, in my eyes, there is a greater discrepancy between estimations of basketball ability based upon appearance and actual basketball ability than Marc Gasol. Of course in Darius Miles the Grizzlies very nearly have the eye test/production inverse. If I were Darius Miles I'd strongly consider giving up basketball in order to pursue a career as an arch-nemesis, to be villainous towards the villous young Marc.

BigA · Post #3 » by **BigA** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:25 am

A loss here would put the Wizards at 3 fewer wins than Memphis with 2 less games played. Would really help ensure that they stay in the bottom 3.

Severn Hoos · Post #4 » by **Severn Hoos** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 12:51 pm

Important, critical, must-lose tank game.

I assume we'll follow the plan and leave Gil at home to rest up for the Queen? If so, we should get to see all the Crittenton that we could ever want. Will Juan be available?

Grizz pulled a surprise last night by rallying in the 4th to beat the Warriors on the road - a loss here would really push them out of reach.

I'm worried about the 2 Toronto games & the finale vs. Boston, if they have nothing to play for. We can't afford to go winning games that will come back to haunt us in the Loss column.

BTW, the Warriors may become our best friends in the coming weeks. They really look like they're sucking wind right now, and they have 2 games left with the Kings and 1 with Minnesota. If they can manage to drop all 3 of those, it will really help our cause.

I really want to win at least one of the Cleveland games (preferably both), ideally without losing any ping pong balls in the process.

Pass_The_Sticks · Post #5 » by **Pass_The_Sticks** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 1:28 pm

We must lose this game because we're going to beat the Cavs.

Chocolate City Jordanaire · Post #6 » by **Chocolate City Jordanaire** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 2:04 pm

The most intriguing thing to me besides the need for the Wiz to tank is that Memphis is apparently giving Hollins a full year as coach next season. Dave Joerger is one of their assistants.

Post #7 » by **nate33** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 2:25 pm

Man, a loss here would be sweet. It would almost guarantee a bottom 3 finish.

We need Blatche to get into early foul trouble. With Songaila out, that'll force McGee into heavy minutes where his poor rotations will help us lose the game despite everybody looking like they're trying real hard.

MOrgil · Post #8 » by **MOrgil** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 3:36 pm

Having more ping pong balls helps our chance of getting a high pick but having the worst record doesn't guarantee us the top pick. I want the team to get some good wins, preferably against Cavs or Celtics before the season ends, so that the organization and the fans will have something to look forward to.

queridiculo · Post #9 » by **queridiculo** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 3:37 pm

It's really too bad we don't have James available for this contest, we can't afford to have Nick Young to get red hot going up against his USC brother.

dobrojim · Post #10 » by **dobrojim** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 4:01 pm

I love this thread

it's tanktastic!

we still have a solid 2 game lead in the loss column over
all comers.

Go Grizz!

BigA · Post #11 » by **BigA** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 4:09 pm

dobrojim wrote:I love this thread

it's tanktastic!

we still have a solid 2 game lead in the loss column over
all comers.

Go Grizz!

The "loss column" is important in a race for best record, but for tanking purposes the "win column" is more important.

dobrojim · Post #12 » by **dobrojim** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 4:13 pm

as long as we continue to lead the loss column, we're good!

the other dredge still has to catch us. Weird things happen
at the end of the year sometimes. Truly sucky teams win
unlikely games.

a bottom 2 finish probably just about guarantees a top 4 pick.
If Rubio comes out, that means we at least get whoever is left
between Thabeet (trade bait) or Evans who I would consider
keeping and could see taking as high as #4.

Post #13 » by **nate33** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 4:33 pm

If we have the worst record:
25.0% chance at top 1 pick
46.5% chance at top 2 pick
64.3% chance at top 3 pick
100% chance at top 4 pick

If we have the second worst record:
19.9% chance at top 1 pick
38.7% chance at top 2 pick
55.8% chance at top 3 pick
87.7% chance at top 4 pick

If we have the third worst record:
15.6% chance at top 1 pick
31.3% chance at top 2 pick
46.9% chance at top 3 pick
69.5% chance at top 4 pick

If we have the fourth-worst record:
11.9% chance at top 1 pick
24.5% chance at top 2 pick
37.8% chance at top 3 pick
47.7% chance at top 4 pick

If we have the fifth-worst record:
08.8% chance at top 1 pick
18.5% chance at top 2 pick
29.2% chance at top 3 pick
29.2% chance at top 4 pick

Clearly, every loss counts. The odds of getting the #1 overall pick don't change all that dramatically with every slot we move down, but the odds of landing one of the top 2 or one of the top 3 picks really plummets. We really want a top 3 pick because those are the most tradeable assets.

It's pretty shocking really. If we end up with the third worst record, we have less than a 50-50 shot at a top 3 pick.

fifthstop · Post #14 » by **fifthstop** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 5:17 pm

This could be the best tank battle since Old Monty beat the Desert Fox at El Alamein (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Bat ... El_Alamein)

doclinkin · Post #15 » by **doclinkin** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 6:26 pm

There's a great fiction book set in the context of the North African tank campaign. A Brit tank crew (Canadian? I forget. The captain is an american volunteer IIRC) in a tiny crappy Italian-make tank has to survive behind Rommel's lines and find their way back to the allied columns while playing cat and mouse in the dunes. Sneaking down gulleys, peeking over the tops of the sandy hills, and mostly running away from the impossibly thick armor and 88mm cannons on der Panzer tanks.

Easter Day, 1941 by GF Borden. Highly recommended, worth owning if you're a WWII aficionado or just like a taut plotline and well-written action story.

fishercob · Post #16 » by **fishercob** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 9:14 pm

Mike Lee reports that Gil might play tomorrow. Grrr.

dobrojim · Post #17 » by **dobrojim** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 9:31 pm

I hope Lee doesn't become the Ant-Ivan and report every unsubstantiated
thing he hears.

Now he could end up being right but it doesn't make sense if you
believe they'll adhere to the no b2b games. Save it for the home
crowd and for CLE. Increase the chances of 2 losses.

ZonkertheBrainless · Post #18 » by **ZonkertheBrainless** » Tue Mar 31, 2009 9:43 pm

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

dammit, Gil. Just sit down and chill out, will you?

AgentOvechkin08 · Post #19 » by **AgentOvechkin08** » Wed Apr 1, 2009 12:00 am

I was a little confused on the lottery odds and all so to add what nate posted:

If we get the worst record the lowest we can pick is 4th

IF we get the 2nd worst record the lowest we can pick is 5th (see celtics in 07, look how that turned out)

If we get the 3rd worst record the lowest we can pick is 6th

All these scenarios happened in 07 with the Grizz, C's, and Bucks. All of them picked in the lowest spot the could. WOW

So, the drawing is really for the top 3, and i hope we dont get screwed over on lottery day.

Post #20 » by **miller31time** » Wed Apr 1, 2009 1:12 am

Can't fault a guy for wanting to play...but damn...if he doesn't have the worst timing.