What is JaVale McGee's ceiling?

[RickRoll_inDC]

I really think that McGee could really blossom into a decent player this year. No, I'm not expecting him to be a potential all-star or for him to challenge Wood for the starting C spot. Remember, he's still only 21 years old.

I'm hoping that Javale can turn into at least most of the defender that Haywood is this year, so that (if I'm not mistaken) when Haywood's contract is up next year, McGee can move into his place. Yes, it would be sad to see Wood go, but it's kind of like when my Phillies let Jim Thome go because Ryan Howard was ready to come in and produce big numbers. You just can't keep talent like that on the bench merely playing 20mpg.

[Ruzious]

If there are GMs that think there's a reasonable chance of Javale being an all-star - as some/most of the posters here as of now... do - I'd be talking with those GMs now and hope they don't change their mind before we make a deal. He does have a high ceiling, but I don't expect him to become an all-star caliber player.

[doclinkin]

If there are GMs that think there's a reasonable chance of Javale being an all-star - as some/most of the posters here as of now... do - I'd be talking with those GMs now and hope they don't change their mind before we make a deal. He does have a high ceiling, but I don't expect him to become an all-star caliber player.

Show me the centers who project to be better in 3-5 years. There are few true centers eligible for the ASG in any year, usually there's been one player in the pot just by default, with little competition. There's a decent crop of strong young Bigs right now, but none have a polished game. Few Bigs come into the league and instantly dominate their position, even Yao struggled for a year and a half. There's an aging core of all-star talls in KG, Duncan, Big Z, Shaq, but all have shown signs of decline or injury. Who steps up to replace them? Dwight. Al Horford.... Then....
A developing Joakim Noah?
An oxymoronic healthy Greg Oden?
Upsy-downsy DeAndre Jordan?
Sometimey Greg Monroe?
A quicker Hibbert?
A college freshman?
A highschool kid?
OKC Mullens?
A Lopez bro maybe?

Out of curiosity. I'd like to see the list of top five "five's" who will compete for an ASG spot in three-to-five years. Feel free to go bi-coastal since you have no idea who might switch coasts.
Five it up, show me the young bigs certain to be better than JaVale in the mid-future:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Shoot if we're predicting 'allstar' status, not quality, I'll even grant Yi Jianlian one of those spots since the chinese tend to out-vote everyone beyond all reason. (But not Yao who may well be done).

[nate33]

Out of curiosity. I'd like to see the list of top five "five's" who will compete for an ASG spot in three-to-five years. Feel free to go bi-coastal since you have no idea who might switch coasts.
Five it up, show me the young bigs certain to be better than JaVale in the mid-future:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Good challenge, doc.

There's Dwight, of course. I'd put Bynum near the top of that list too. Al Jefferson may never move back to PF given Minnesota's glut of PF's. That's 3 guys who are a pretty sure bet to be better than McGee.

After that, there's Brook Lopez, Biedrins, Noah and Oden who have shown the potential to be elite-caliber centers. I'd put McGee in that same tier but with a higher beta (could be better than that whole crew, or much worse).

And let's not forget the young, established big men like Bogut, Perkins and Kaman. Their upsides are somewhat limited, but if many of the up-and-comers don't pan out, they may find themselves in the occasional all star game by default. There's no guarantee that McGee will be better than any of those guys.

So it's:

Top 1:
Dwight

Top 2-3
Jefferson
Bynum

Top 4-7 (if they approach their potential)
McGee
Biedrins
Noah
Lopez
Oden

Top 8-10 (competent but unspectacular bigs who may make ASG by default)
Bogut
Perkins
Kaman

Haywood may fall into that last group if we're looking 3 years out, but not 5 years out. Dalembert and Chandler are still reasonably young and competent, but they have shown such poor offensive aptitude throughout their careers that it's difficult to imagine them improving enough to earn ASG votes. There's also Pau Gasol who may migrate to full time center as he gets older.

EDIT: added Biedrins

[TheSecretWeapon]

Here's a list (sorted by PER) of NBA centers who were 25 or younger as Feb. 1 of this year (name, (age), PER):

1. Dwight Howard (23) -- 25.4
2. Andrew Bynum (21) -- 20.0
3. Andris Biedrins (22) -- 19.1
4. Greg Oden (21) -- 18.1
5. Brook Lopez (20) -- 17.9
6. Al Horford (22) -- 17.0
JaVale McGee (21) -- 17.0
8. Marc Gasol (24) -- 16.7
9. Joakim Noah (23) -- 16.5
10. Andrew Bogut (24) -- 16.2

Others showing up on the full list (20 players) -- Roy Hibbert, Kosta Koufos, DeAndre Jordan, Zaza Pachulia, Nenad Krstic, Kendrick Perkins, Spencer Hawes, Robin Lopez, Aaron Gray, Johan Petro.

No reason to think can't be as good or better than any of the other young'uns on the list. If I'm betting, I'd wager that Howard will remain better. Of the rest of the list, I'd bet on Bynum and Oden being better. Maybe Biedrins, though I'm hoping McGee's physical tools show up. Brook Lopez is already ahead of McGee in the "how to play the game" department, although Lopez is actually younger. McGee is the better athlete. Maybe he'll learn.

[Ruzious]

If there are GMs that think there's a reasonable chance of Javale being an all-star - as some/most of the posters here as of now... do - I'd be talking with those GMs now and hope they don't change their mind before we make a deal. He does have a high ceiling, but I don't expect him to become an all-star caliber player.

Show me the centers who project to be better in 3-5 years. There are few true centers eligible for the ASG in any year, usually there's been one player in the pot just by default, with little competition. There's a decent crop of strong young Bigs right now, but none have a polished game. Few Bigs come into the league and instantly dominate their position, even Yao struggled for a year and a half. There's an aging core of all-star talls in KG, Duncan, Big Z, Shaq, but all have shown signs of decline or injury. Who steps up to replace them? Dwight. Al Horford.... Then....
A developing Joakim Noah?
An oxymoronic healthy Greg Oden?
Upsy-downsy DeAndre Jordan?
Sometimey Greg Monroe?
A quicker Hibbert?
A college freshman?
A highschool kid?
OKC Mullens?
A Lopez bro maybe?

Out of curiosity. I'd like to see the list of top five "five's" who will compete for an ASG spot in three-to-five years. Feel free to go bi-coastal since you have no idea who might switch coasts.
Five it up, show me the young bigs certain to be better than JaVale in the mid-future:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Shoot if we're predicting 'allstar' status, not quality, I'll even grant Yi Jianlian one of those spots since the chinese tend to out-vote everyone beyond all reason. (But not Yao who may well be done).

It's not about - who else is going to be what - as much as it's how good will Javale be - assuming... the next 10 years will be roughly the same as the last - as far as competition.

Or... that's my way of saying I'm too lazy to make a list - after undergoing oral surgery and holding an icepack to my jaw. Maybe I'll try to make a list later.

Btw, never use the word certainty when looking at the future.

And you're making my mouth hurt more - First, you say compete for an ASG spot in 3-5. Then it's who's certain to be better in the mid-future? Colorful but confusing. Clear > colorful.

Can we include Blair? Btw, I don't accept your rule about Yao. I'd take him with less than a 50% chance of returning over Jav.

[Ruzious]

Here's a list (sorted by PER) of NBA centers who were 25 or younger as Feb. 1 of this year (name, (age), PER):

1. Dwight Howard (23) -- 25.4
2. Andrew Bynum (21) -- 20.0
3. Andris Biedrins (22) -- 19.1
4. Greg Oden (21) -- 18.1
5. Brook Lopez (20) -- 17.9
6. Al Horford (22) -- 17.0
JaVale McGee (21) -- 17.0
8. Marc Gasol (24) -- 16.7
9. Joakim Noah (23) -- 16.5
10. Andrew Bogut (24) -- 16.2

Others showing up on the full list (20 players) -- Roy Hibbert, Kosta Koufos, DeAndre Jordan, Zaza Pachulia, Nenad Krstic, Kendrick Perkins, Spencer Hawes, Robin Lopez, Aaron Gray, Johan Petro.

No reason to think can't be as good or better than any of the other young'uns on the list. If I'm betting, I'd wager that Howard will remain better. Of the rest of the list, I'd bet on Bynum and Oden being better. Maybe Biedrins, though I'm hoping McGee's physical tools show up. Brook Lopez is already ahead of McGee in the "how to play the game" department, although Lopez is actually younger. McGee is the better athlete. Maybe he'll learn.

If money wasn't factored in, I'd trade him for anyone but Marc Gasol on that list - faster than Rod Strickland could eat a hotdog before gametime.

[doclinkin]

Here's a list (sorted by PER) of NBA centers who were 25 or younger as Feb. 1 of this year (name, (age), PER):

1. Dwight Howard (23) -- 25.4
2. Andrew Bynum (21) -- 20.0
3. Andris Biedrins (22) -- 19.1
4. Greg Oden (21) -- 18.1
5. Brook Lopez (20) -- 17.9
6. Al Horford (22) -- 17.0
JaVale McGee (21) -- 17.0
8. Marc Gasol (24) -- 16.7
9. Joakim Noah (23) -- 16.5
10. Andrew Bogut (24) -- 16.2

Others showing up on the full list (20 players) -- Roy Hibbert, Kosta Koufos, DeAndre Jordan, Zaza Pachulia, Nenad Krstic, Kendrick Perkins, Spencer Hawes, Robin Lopez, Aaron Gray, Johan Petro.

No reason to think can't be as good or better than any of the other young'uns on the list. If I'm betting, I'd wager that Howard will remain better. Of the rest of the list, I'd bet on Bynum and Oden being better. Maybe Biedrins, though I'm hoping McGee's physical tools show up. Brook Lopez is already ahead of McGee in the "how to play the game" department, although Lopez is actually younger. McGee is the better athlete. Maybe he'll learn.

If money wasn't factored in, I'd trade him for anyone but Marc Gasol on that list - faster than Rod Strickland could eat a hotdog before gametime.

Really?

Marc Gasol
Joakim Noah
Andrew Bogut
Roy Hibbert,
Kosta Koufos,
DeAndre Jordan,
Zaza Pachulia,
Nenad Krstic,
Kendrick Perkins,
Spencer Hawes,
Robin Lopez,
Aaron Gray,
Johan Petro?

Pretty low opinion you have of the JV kid. The way I look at it, as far as long term upside and career value the guys on the list I'm sure will outperform JaVale for their career are the following:

1. Dwight Howard (23) -- 25.4
6. Al Horford (22) -- 17.0

Of the others:

2. Andrew Bynum (21) -- 20.0
4. Greg Oden (21) -- 18.1

I have questions about their long term health. Oden because the issues he's been dinged by (back, feet, bone strength) are areas that are vulnerable to chronic problems. And rumors out of Portland suggest he was lazy in his rehab.

Bynum-- I dunno, he was dinged a bit, but came back fine -- mostly, something about the kid bugs me. He has a slaggardly demeanor, though he is producing (plus he has a great tutor). I'm just unconvinced about his bonifides. Can't defend this suspicion though.

5. Brook Lopez (20) -- 17.9
3. Andris Biedrins (22) -- 19.1

Are fine players, solid in what they do.
Biedrins' particular skillset benefits his stats inasmuch as everyone around him is jacking from outside so the there's a greater percentage of available rebounds, he doesn't have to share with a teammate. But I like his small streak of mean. Even if Andray Blatche outperformed him in the 'free at last' game.

Both Lopezes are competent. Both Lopezii. The Big Lopes. But because it serves my argument to do so, in this instance I go against my usual inclination and think: Look, JaVale is on par with a solid guy like Brook Lopez even though he has no clear idea what he's doing. That is, even playing like a wannabe small forward, with minimal big man tutelage he performs equivalent to a guy who has been carrying his adult weight since 3-4 years ago-- banging and practicing his whole life against a guy exactly equal in size and strength.

Neither Lopez Bro nor Andris will appreciably gain any more athleticism (nor likely much size) but JaVale can damn sure learn to play smarter, and he's gained 40 pounds in 4 years.

Basically, I'm no fan of upside for it's own sake, but he's no PJRamos. And while he may have a swollen sense of his own destiny the kid truly wants to be a great baller. Compared to say Blatche who never outright said he wanted to make an allstar game or be considered one of the best in the league. Way I see it the only limits on his upside are: desire, health, and tutors. Sounds like the desire is there, if not the self-critique, yet.

As far as all-star games: Fans vote. Fans like highlights. Alley oops and flying dunks make the late-night loops. A Gllbert-to-JV lob flush will catch flashbulbs and replay. I don't see many on this list who will make more Sportcenter slo-mos than an ascendant JVMcGee. Like it or not, he's a spectacle. Freak of nature. Once he sinters that with experience and a mature game, what stops him from succeeding?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Javale's no Dwight Howard.

I'd say he's potentially as good as anybody else you named, doc.

Noah's scrappier than Javale and he'll always be a better winning-time player.

I think Hibbert's going to turn into a scoring terror for about 15 minutes a game. The pairing of Roy and Tyler Hansbrough is going to see many a playoff game after 2-3 years.

I think Brook Lopez will be a grinder who'll make winning plays. I think he's got the second most potential behind Howard.

Javale seems to me to have huge offensive potential more than anything else. I see him as a taller Larry Nance. Highlight reel player but not hugely impactful. I like Javale, but as a scorer unless he gains about 30 lbs and gets stronger, like Pau did this season. IF THAT HAPPENS, I'll say EG is a damned genius!

Javale has gifts nobody but Howard has. Length with hops and good hands.

Oden's injuries make me think he's bound for a short career. He's a bit stiff and robotic, but a true pivot and a massive, strong kid. If he loses a little weight, cuts down on the fouls, STAYS HEALTHY, and gains confidence then disregard what I just said. He can outplay Howard, potentially.

Bynum will be an elite scorer who gets disinterested and is a malcontent/prima donna down the road, would be my prediction. A better Eddy Curry.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Shoot, sign me up for McGee becoming Larry Nance. 13 seasons -- all of them at least pretty good; 6 with a PER better than 20. Consistent scorer, rebounder and shot blocker. 3x All-Defense; 3x All-Star. 8x top 10 shot blocker. #61 in ALL-TIME career PER. My APBRmetrics colleage MikeG, who does some fabulous things with the numbers has Nance at #56 all-time (including credit for playoffs).

Plus, he helped lead Phoenix to the Western Conference Finals (lost to the Kareem-Magic-Worthy-Eddie Jordan Lakers, which lost in 7 to the Celtics that year). Also helped Cleveland to the Eastern Conference Finals (lost to the Jordan Bulls, which would win its 2nd title a few weeks later).

Never really good enough to be The Guy, but still a damn fine player. If he lands with the Lakers instead of Worthy, Nance is the one who goes to the Hall of Fame.

[Mortality Pie]

I don't want to be too negative here, but if JaVale has allstar potential only because most other young 5's in the league don't, how good is that really for the Wiz? I like his upside too, but this seems like backhanded praise.

How important to the team's success is it that the current crop of young 5s underwhelms? (with the obvious exceptions). I know that the level of one's competition plays a large part in success, but I'd rather not settle for "JV will be an all-star because everyone else is average-at-best."

[doclinkin]

I don't want to be too negative here, but if JaVale has allstar potential only because most other young 5's in the league don't, how good is that really for the Wiz? I like his upside too, but this seems like backhanded praise.

How important to the team's success is it that the current crop of young 5s underwhelms? (with the obvious exceptions). I know that the level of one's competition plays a large part in success, but I'd rather not settle for "JV will be an all-star because everyone else is average-at-best."

Okay, sure, but why again is it not good to be better than the other guy at your spot? The very fact of making an all-star team can raise the perceived value of a player in future trades. You can demand more in trade if you decide to go that route, and fans won't crush their GM for trading a quality player for a young all-star with a flashy game. You have to play the front office game as well as the game on the court here, nohumsayin?

[Ruzious]

Doc, I meant anyone on Kev's top 10 list. I wouldn't trade him for any of the "others", but everyone except Marc Gasol on the top 10 list is a Yes, without hesitation - again, money considerations aside. If you don't trade him for Bynum or Oden, we'd have to get you commited to an insane asylum, in all good consciousness (sp?) - for your own good. And while combining the Lopez brothers is not as bad combining Hank Aaron and his brother Tommy, it's... pretty bad. Brook is a stud. It's a ginormous leap of faith to say McGee is on par with him. Nobody's saying Jav is Ramos, but that's as left-handed a complimented as it gets. Ramos was a human slug - just a very long one. I'll be hoping Jav becomes everything he can be, but I'm not betting the mortgage on all-star status.

[MJG]

I don't want to be too negative here, but if JaVale has allstar potential only because most other young 5's in the league don't, how good is that really for the Wiz? I like his upside too, but this seems like backhanded praise.

How important to the team's success is it that the current crop of young 5s underwhelms? (with the obvious exceptions). I know that the level of one's competition plays a large part in success, but I'd rather not settle for "JV will be an all-star because everyone else is average-at-best."

Because teams play centers, regardless of quality. As in, if a team doesn't have a good center on its roster, they don't say "well, we just won't use centers then"; they're just going to play the best one they've got. That's just the way the league works. And as long as that's the case, having the best center means you have an advantage, even if the overall crop of centers isn't good (hypothetically speaking - I actually don't see what the problem is with the current group of young centers).

[doclinkin]

That's just the way the league works. And as long as that's the case, having the best center means you have an advantage, even if the overall crop of centers isn't good (hypothetically speaking - I actually don't see what the problem is with the current group of young centers).

Agreed, I think were in a pretty good era of strong good young Bigs. If JaVale remains in that top ten company in the next 5 years (once the old hounds age out) I expect we'd all be pretty happy.

Granted, new blood comes along, some of these bigs find competition -- I'm saying it's unlikely we get new blood that is longer, faster north-south on the break, and more athletic than JaVale. Leastways it hasn't happened over the past ten years of raw anthropometrics. The rest is just seasoning, experience, coaching, attitude. Health.

Unless you can demonstrate that his on-court immaturity is a permanent condition based not on late-arriving muscle, late-blooming growth sport, misguided tutoring, but instead on rock-solid idiocy. He's not the top IQ at his position, maybe, but he reads as more goofy than stupid to me.

[ZonkertheBrainless]

In his youtube video he says people tell him he needs to bulk up, and he's at 250 right now. That is skinny for a seven footer, and he says if it doesn't help him he'll slim down again.

His workout was a lot of core work, not much mass building exercise.

Not understanding why a seven footer has to be about 260 of solid muscle to be effective in the NBA is pretty stupid to me. Dwight Howard weighs 265. Why doesn't he get it?

[Ruzious]

That's just the way the league works. And as long as that's the case, having the best center means you have an advantage, even if the overall crop of centers isn't good (hypothetically speaking - I actually don't see what the problem is with the current group of young centers).

Agreed, I think were in a pretty good era of strong good young Bigs. If JaVale remains in that top ten company in the next 5 years (once the old hounds age out) I expect we'd all be pretty happy.

Granted, new blood comes along, some of these bigs find competition -- I'm saying it's unlikely we get new blood that is longer, faster north-south on the break, and more athletic than JaVale. Leastways it hasn't happened over the past ten years of raw anthropometrics. The rest is just seasoning, experience, coaching, attitude. Health.

Unless you can demonstrate that his on-court immaturity is a permanent condition based not on late-arriving muscle, late-blooming growth sport, misguided tutoring, but instead on rock-solid idiocy. He's not the top IQ at his position, maybe, but he reads as more goofy than stupid to me.

Yeah, it's unlike "we" get new blood at C that's more talented than Javal, but it is likely that other teams draft other bigs who are better than Javale. It's an unknown as to whether guys like Cousins, Favors, Aldrich, Alabi, Woods, Orton, etc become better. That makes this exercise difficult - that's why I'd just focus on Javale improving - focus on 1 unknown rather than 20 or so.

Btw, many teams often do use PFs at C - Songaila and Blatche - for example.

[LyricalRico]

A little something to throw water on the "JaVale at PF" nonsense:

I mentioned this a few times, but JaVale McGee was absolutely outstanding in the two games Andray Blatche didn't play. In the games he did play? Listless, out of it and ineffective. It looked like McGee and Blatche really struggled sharing the low block. Blatche would camp there and isolate, leaving McGee to just hang out on the weakside. And when McGee wasn't active offensively, he was also inactive defensively.

But when McGee had the inside all to himself, he just seemed like a different player. He ran the floor with more aggression. He was more disciplined on defense. He finished more plays. He attacked the offensive glass more. None of that is Andray Blatche's fault, and both of those players can and are very useful. But there's even more evidence now that the two are just very bad on-court fits with each other. That's a problem both this year and down the road.

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2009/7/20 ... he-wizards

To me the key is the first sentence in the second paragraph. Instead of trying to put McGee on the outside at PF, let's keep him inside where he has the potential to dominate. I just don't see him being able to mesh well playing next to another center.

We need to stop focusing so much on versatility and focus more on productivity (another point made in the full article). Otherwise we'll turn McGee into another Jared Jeffries - a guy who runs around a lot but doesn't really accomplish much.

[Kanyewest]

A little something to throw water on the "JaVale at PF" nonsense:

I mentioned this a few times, but JaVale McGee was absolutely outstanding in the two games Andray Blatche didn't play. In the games he did play? Listless, out of it and ineffective. It looked like McGee and Blatche really struggled sharing the low block. Blatche would camp there and isolate, leaving McGee to just hang out on the weakside. And when McGee wasn't active offensively, he was also inactive defensively.

But when McGee had the inside all to himself, he just seemed like a different player. He ran the floor with more aggression. He was more disciplined on defense. He finished more plays. He attacked the offensive glass more. None of that is Andray Blatche's fault, and both of those players can and are very useful. But there's even more evidence now that the two are just very bad on-court fits with each other. That's a problem both this year and down the road.

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2009/7/20 ... he-wizards

To me the key is the first sentence in the second paragraph. Instead of trying to put McGee on the outside at PF, let's keep him inside where he has the potential to dominate. I just don't see him being able to mesh well playing next to another center.

We need to stop focusing so much on versatility and focus more on productivity (another point made in the full article). Otherwise we'll turn McGee into another Jared Jeffries - a guy who runs around a lot but doesn't really accomplish much.

Does this also mean that Andray Blatche can't play power forward? Would you rather have the Wizards play big in the power forward position with Blatche and McGee or play small with McGuire as the as a backup 4 when Jamison isn't on the floor?

IMO Jeffries playing multiple positions on the Wizards, that didn't hurt his development. He was never that good to begin with. That was the only reason he had that much value as an 8th guy on a roster, he's just not worth the money he's making with the Knicks?

[go'stags]

Since when do PFs have to play outside? This isnt Eddie's offense. Flip has even said that the PF and C are interchangable.