What is JaVale McGee's ceiling?

[doclinkin]

QFT on the WOW. I would never have guessed that. Maybe we (me) are too hard on him, because we (I) expect so much out of a guy that long and talented. His numerous mistakes tend to stick out because of that, but most rookie bigs make tons of mistakes.

Nice backpedal ruzy

[Ruzious]

QFT on the WOW. I would never have guessed that. Maybe we (me) are too hard on him, because we (I) expect so much out of a guy that long and talented. His numerous mistakes tend to stick out because of that, but most rookie bigs make tons of mistakes.

Nice backpedal ruzy

Uh... unlike some person (doc), I'm not ready to compare him to Wilt Chamberlain.

I'd still trade him for everyone on that list except for Gasol, doxy.

[Pass_The_Sticks]

And if Flip can't teach him, maybe Koach K kan:

Marc Spears, Yahoo NBA/USA Basketball beat guy wrote on twitter:

bayless out of usa camp due to wrist injury; javelle mcghee in

Linky.

Who in the heck is javelle mcghee?

[nate33]

McGee is like a healthy T. Chandler but will likely never rebound the way Chandler or Camby does.

Rookie Rebound Rates

McGee -- 15.1 (1143 total minutes)
Chandler -- 14.1 (1389 total minutes)
Garnett -- 13.1 (2293 total minutes)
Camby -- 12.2 (1897 total minutes)

WOW!

To be fair, Chandler and Garnett were fresh out of high school when they were rookies. Chandler had just turned 19 a month before the season started. Garnett was 19 and-a-half.

McGee turned 21 mid-way through his rookie year.

Camby was actually 22 as a rookie.

[Ruzious]

To be fair, Chandler and Garnett were fresh out of high school when they were rookies. Chandler had just turned 19 a month before the season started. Garnett was 19 and-a-half.

McGee turned 21 mid-way through his rookie year.

Camby was actually 22 as a rookie.

True, but KG didn't reach Javale's rebound rate till his 4th season, and Camby - his 3rd season.

I don't think he'll be as good a rebounder as either of them, but it's interesting.

[TheSecretWeapon]

No question, nate. I was just responding to the folks mentioned by our visitor. So, now let's be unfair to McGee . Here's a comparison at age 21 (well, for Camby, it's still 22 because that's when he was a rookie):

Age 21(22) Rebound Rate

Chandler -- 18.9 (782 total minutes)
McGee -- 15.1 (1143 total minutes)
Garnett -- 13.9 (3222 total minutes)
Camby -- 12.2 (1897 total minutes)

Chandler and Garnett both have significant advantages in this comparison because for each it's their 3rd NBA season. Chandler's rebound rate number goes 14.4, 15.5, 18.9, then 4 consecutive seasons of 19 or better. KG began to ramp up his rebounding in his 4th season.

[fishercob]

To be fair, Chandler and Garnett were fresh out of high school when they were rookies. Chandler had just turned 19 a month before the season started. Garnett was 19 and-a-half.

McGee turned 21 mid-way through his rookie year.

Camby was actually 22 as a rookie.

True, but KG didn't reach Javale's rebound rate till his 4th season, and Camby - his 3rd season.

I don't think he'll be as good a rebounder as either of them, but it's interesting.

I don't know, Ruz. He has unteachable dominant physical attributes and seems to have a desire to be great. That's a pretty good combo. I have no idea how to project whether someone will develop into a great rebounder, shooter, etc., but the fact that he compares favorably to those three guys is awesome.

[Ruzious]

To be fair, Chandler and Garnett were fresh out of high school when they were rookies. Chandler had just turned 19 a month before the season started. Garnett was 19 and-a-half.

McGee turned 21 mid-way through his rookie year.

Camby was actually 22 as a rookie.

True, but KG didn't reach Javale's rebound rate till his 4th season, and Camby - his 3rd season.

I don't think he'll be as good a rebounder as either of them, but it's interesting.

I don't know, Ruz. He has unteachable dominant physical attributes and seems to have a desire to be great. That's a pretty good combo. I have no idea how to project whether someone will develop into a great rebounder, shooter, etc., but the fact that he compares favorably to those three guys is awesome.

Fair enough. I have no idea, either - other than my perceptions. Only Kev knows for sure.

[Hoopalotta]

My thinking on McGee goes like this:

I'm not expecting much this year, but minutes should be available for him to do whatever he can. Simultaneously, he and Gil are about the only untradable guys on the roster at the moment: There's no way you could get value given their situations and the potential value's too high to lose out on.

That and he'll be an All-Star one day or gosh-darn close to it. I like the mention above about 'Gee and Gil' on the pick and roll too. I'm going to go ahead and patent 'Shock and Awe' for that one.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Real quick -- here's the complete list of players in the past 30 years who had a rookie PER between 16.5 and 17.5 (Javale's was 17.0) and a rebounding rate between 14.5 and 15.5 (Javale's was 15.1):

(sorted by PER)

1. Christian Laettner -- 17.3 (PER)
2. Joe Smith -- 17.2
3. Shawn Marion -- 17.1
4. Javale McGee -- 17.0
5. Marc Gasol -- 16.7
6. Antawn Jamison -- 16.6
7. Brian Grant -- 16.5

PFs and tweeners. Everyone on this list not named McGee or Gasol was at least a solid pro for a few years. Maybe a little worrisome that there aren't any true centers? I guess not -- none of the guys here have Javale's size and athleticism.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Real quick -- here's the complete list of players in the past 30 years who had a rookie PER between 16.5 and 17.5 (Javale's was 17.0) and a rebounding rate between 14.5 and 15.5 (Javale's was 15.1):

(sorted by PER)

1. Christian Laettner -- 17.3 (PER)
2. Joe Smith -- 17.2
3. Shawn Marion -- 17.1
4. Javale McGee -- 17.0
5. Marc Gasol -- 16.7
6. Antawn Jamison -- 16.6
7. Brian Grant -- 16.5

PFs and tweeners. Everyone on this list not named McGee or Gasol was at least a solid pro for a few years. Maybe a little worrisome that there aren't any true centers? I guess not -- none of the guys here have Javale's size and athleticism.

TSW, this is eerie. Dat's last post from Vegas that Thabeet might be Thabust got me thinking about the Wizards trading for Marc Gasol while the Grizzlies are still optimistic about the guy they just drafted. (Dare I post a Haywood trade idea?)

Marc Gasol is a very underrated player. He and Javale easily will be solid pros for years to come as far as I'm concerned.

[Kanyewest]

No question, nate. I was just responding to the folks mentioned by our visitor. So, now let's be unfair to McGee . Here's a comparison at age 21 (well, for Camby, it's still 22 because that's when he was a rookie):

Age 21(22) Rebound Rate

Chandler -- 18.9 (782 total minutes)
McGee -- 15.1 (1143 total minutes)
Garnett -- 13.9 (3222 total minutes)
Camby -- 12.2 (1897 total minutes)

Chandler and Garnett both have significant advantages in this comparison because for each it's their 3rd NBA season. Chandler's rebound rate number goes 14.4, 15.5, 18.9, then 4 consecutive seasons of 19 or better. KG began to ramp up his rebounding in his 4th season.

Didn't KG play small forward at times during his first few years in the NBA? Would that have an impact on his rebound rate?

[JonathanJoseph]

McGees ceiling is very, very high.

McGees invitation to the USA basketball minicamp shows you what company McGee may be in down the road.

The other 4/5 that have invitations include LaMarcus Aldridge, Glenn Davis, Blake Griffin, David Lee, Brook Lopez, Kevin Love, and Greg Oden. That group includes young players (except maybe Big Baby) that are likely to be all-stars and potentially franchise caliber players.

And McGee is the fourth big man on a roster that is supposed to be weak in the frontcourt.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Didn't KG play small forward at times during his first few years in the NBA? Would that have an impact on his rebound rate?

Playing SF likely would affect rebound rate since he'd presumably be playing farther from the basket. Looking at the minutes for the T-Wolves in his first three years...

Rookie season -- looks like KG was mostly a PF (or C?!). KG was 3rd in total minutes; Gugliotta led the team. I'd think that Googs played PF except there's basically no one eating center minutes. Laettner is the most likely suspect, but he was 7th in total minutes and appeared in just 44 games. When healthy, the frontline was likely a lot of KG-Laettner-Gugliotta. It looks like Andrew Lang and Eric Riley shared some starts while Laettner was hurt. Although, KG started just 43 games that season, so someone had to get some starts in his spot too. My guess is that with so many PF/C types on the roster that KG had to play some SF -- as well as possibly a few center minutes too.

Year 2 -- Laettner was gone. KG was a full-time starter with Googs. The starting center was Stojko Vrankovic then Dean Garrett (or vice versa). Googs outrebouned KG that season, but also out-assisted him. I don't remember which guy was considered SF and which was PF. My guess is that KG was SF -- between him and Googs, he'd probably do a much better job staying in front of SFs.

Year 3 -- Googs was hurt and missed half the games. Cherokee Parks, Stanley Roberts and Tom Hammonds got significant minutes. All but Hammonds started at least 40 games. KG probably played some at both forward spots. Somehow that crew won 45 games.

I was expecting to post that in year 4 KG had become the full-time PF, but the frontcourt starters that season were KG, Joe Smith and Dean Garrett.

In his 5th season (whew), it looks like he was the full-time PF. That team had Malik Sealy and Wally Szczerbiak, as well as Joe Smith off the bench and Rasho and Garrett at center.

[nate33]

KG was skinny as hell when he first entered the league. I distinctly recall him playing SF in his first two seasons there, with Googs playing PF. Garnett played PF exclusively once Googs was gone. Hammonds played SF.

Garnett had a weird career in that he made a relatively typical jump in production from his 3rd season to his 4th season, but than he had an outlandish improvement in production after his 8th season. When most of us think of Garnett, we think of the guy in his 9th through 12th seasons when posted a PER in the 27-29 range. But before that, Garnett was a much more mortal player, posting a PER in the 22-23 range.

I'd be happy if McGee merely matched the pre-superstar version of Garnett and posted a PER around 22 (in 30+ minutes a game). If a team can get that kind of production from the center spot, the rest is easy.

[verbal8]

Real quick -- here's the complete list of players in the past 30 years who had a rookie PER between 16.5 and 17.5 (Javale's was 17.0) and a rebounding rate between 14.5 and 15.5 (Javale's was 15.1):

(sorted by PER)

1. Christian Laettner -- 17.3 (PER)
2. Joe Smith -- 17.2
3. Shawn Marion -- 17.1
4. Javale McGee -- 17.0
5. Marc Gasol -- 16.7
6. Antawn Jamison -- 16.6
7. Brian Grant -- 16.5

PFs and tweeners. Everyone on this list not named McGee or Gasol was at least a solid pro for a few years. Maybe a little worrisome that there aren't any true centers? I guess not -- none of the guys here have Javale's size and athleticism.

Although they are a completely different situation than McGee, I looked into the careers of Joe Smith and Laettner.

It is interesting that Joe Smith and Laettner did not really build on their impressive rookie years. Laettner had one impressive year in Atlanta at age 27. They both were guys who were superstars in college, and then merely good players in the NBA.

[closg00]

McGees ceiling is very, very high.

McGees invitation to the USA basketball minicamp shows you what company McGee may be in down the road.

The other 4/5 that have invitations include LaMarcus Aldridge, Glenn Davis, Blake Griffin, David Lee, Brook Lopez, Kevin Love, and Greg Oden. That group includes young players (except maybe Big Baby) that are likely to be all-stars and potentially franchise caliber players.

And McGee is the fourth big man on a roster that is supposed to be weak in the frontcourt.

Ok JJ, now I know you work for the Wiz org Our bigs are: Brendan Haywood, Andray Blatche
& JaVale McGee, we went from having 6 bigs to having 3. Our front court IS weak, 1 vet (Haywood), and 2 young bigs. I love McGee's potential as-much anyone, but you've got be honest.

btw. Are we signing Rasho or Oberto?

[TheSecretWeapon]

In hindsight (perhaps in foresight for some), the careers of Laettner and Smith were entirely predictable. Meaning, their "failure" to become superstars. Laettner was highly skilled and smart, but sullen, petulant and not athletic. Smith was a decent enough guy, but not particularly skilled and not really tall enough or strong enough to be a high-quality big.

[Ruzious]

KG was skinny as hell when he first entered the league. I distinctly recall him playing SF in his first two seasons there, with Googs playing PF. Garnett played PF exclusively once Googs was gone. Hammonds played SF.

Garnett had a weird career in that he made a relatively typical jump in production from his 3rd season to his 4th season, but than he had an outlandish improvement in production after his 8th season. When most of us think of Garnett, we think of the guy in his 9th through 12th seasons when posted a PER in the 27-29 range. But before that, Garnett was a much more mortal player, posting a PER in the 22-23 range.

I'd be happy if McGee merely matched the pre-superstar version of Garnett and posted a PER around 22 (in 30+ minutes a game). If a team can get that kind of production from the center spot, the rest is easy.

He was always skinny, but he was always strong. I remember him from the early Nike commercials - some of them pretty funny - especially the foosball one - I think with Mia Hamm and Brandy Chastain. And they had him hatching out of an egg. He played everywhere up front for Minny - probably more center than 3. Googs was a combo forward who played mostly on the perimeter offensively. And L8ner got booed for being strictly a perimeter player there. They never had a legit center with him. Kandiman was the closest. Maybe you were thinking of Bender of Indiana - who was supposed to be the next KG... until it was clear he wasn't strong. Then Doc Rivers called him the next Tracy McGrady...

[JonathanJoseph]

Ok JJ, now I know you work for the Wiz org Our bigs are: Brendan Haywood, Andray Blatche
& JaVale McGee, we went from having 6 bigs to having 3. Our front court IS weak, 1 vet (Haywood), and 2 young bigs. I love McGee's potential as-much anyone, but you've got be honest.

btw. Are we signing Rasho or Oberto?

I am counting Jamison as a power forward who is going to take most of those minutes. He does average 10+ Rebs. And as far as having 6 big men? ET and Pech were wasted roster space and never going to contribute, and if you arent counting Antawn as a big man you certainly arent counting Songaila as a big man. Mike Miller is a better rebounder than Songaila.

As for the front court, I look at it like Denver in 08-09. Nene/Kmart/Birdman with Ronaldo Balkman as 4th was enough beef to make a high-powered, perimeter-based offense a contender. If Blatche steps up (as he did in Summer League), I think the Wiz front court in 09-10 looks comparable and will be more than enough to balance out the backcourt.

For reference, Birdman averaged 6.4 pts, 6.2 rebs, and 2.5 blks in 20 min/game in 08-09, Kmart averaged 11ppg, 6 rebs, 1 blk, and Nene 15 pts, 8 reb, 1 blk.

So I do not think that our front court is our strength at this point, but I do not think its weak either.