Wiz trade 5th pick to Minnesota

[MF23]

Dat, Foye had good production when he came back from injury in Min. I’m not digging up the stats but bad team or not Foye indicated that he is capable of consistent production. You answered your own question. At 27 he has at least 5 solid years left where he’d be a role player on a good team. The Wizards would be wise to choose a cheaper Livingston over Foye but that doesn’t mean Randy won’t be a coveted piece for a contending team in FA. It wouldn’t surprise me too much if Randy is starting for the Spurs or Lakers next season.

And hopefully the FO lets both players leave this offseason. The cap space is a benefit that some of you guys need take heed of and stop complaining about EG's trade. Especially if the FO pulls in a FA or sign/trade talent because of the space.

[Joe_Wiz]

2. In fairness to EG, the trade was not necessarily unwise, given the information available to him at the time. In hindsight, it was a bust, but so are some early draft picks.

Huh? So its not fair to criticize trade b/c he had no idea how bad a deal it would be???

Shoot, I would love to work in situation where I had to make important decisions that effected a organization's future, but I wasn't held responsible for the failures suffered by that organization from the decisions I made. Man, that would be totally f*cking awesome!!! I'd love a job like that!

My point is that he should be judged more on smart or dumb decision-making than on outcomes, and smart organizations judge their employees this way, to the extent that it is possible. For example, smart organizations (of which, alas, there are to few) do not reward their financial advisors for taking reckless risks with their money where the typical outcome is a slightly better return but where there is a large chance of complete disaster, but do reward smart risks where the increased return is worth the risk. Now of course it's not always obvious which is which, but sometimes it is pretty clear, and to the extent that you can tell it's foolish to reward stupid risks that turned out well or to punish smart risks that didn't pan out.

Now I don't think it's obvious how smart EG's trade was. I think Miller has played well and fit in well. If not for his injury problems and of course Gilbert's implosion, things might have turned out entirely differently. Foye might have been worth more as a backup on the team we hoped we had. I don't claim to know whether it was a smart move; I knew essentially nothing about Foye before he came here, though I did like Miller quite a bit. But I am absolutely convinced that when possible judging GM's based on how smart their choices are makes more sense than judging based on outcomes.

Now of course ability to judge talent and predict outcomes is a large part of what you want in a GM, but I don't think the events of this season were predictable. We all knew (EG included) that things might fall apart (Gil's knee being the most obvious issue at the time) but it was not unreasonable to plan for the possibility that looked quite likely at the time -- that we would have a good veteran team to which Miller would add a nice additional part and for which Foye would fill a need too.

[Ruzious]

Basically, EG failed because he was afraid to take risk. That's not the type of guy you want at the head of any organization.

See, I've never gotten this argument. How is trading a lottery pick for two vets who are about to be FA's not a "risk"? Especially when the entire season would hinge on a guy who'd only played 15 games the previous two seasons? This was a HUGE gamble by Grunfeld IMO with the intent to compete right now. Maybe you didn't like the move, but I can't see how you can say there was no risk involved.

I don't think he was as much risk-averse as he was ego-driven to try to prove he was right all along. He wanted to build around his big 3 at all costs. When he could have gotten Amare in a trade involving the pick and one of the big 3, he said no. He did take calculated risks by drafting high upside/low brain function players like Dray, Jav, and Nick. And while Curry is likely better than I give him credit for, the killer mistake wasn't losing out on him; the killer mistake was not pulling the trigger on an Amare trade.

[nate33]

I don't really think it's ego. I think EG was given the order by Abe to build the best "win-now" club he could with the assets available. Miller + Foye was apparently the best he could get with the #5 pick.

I'm not letting EG off the hook, here. At the very least, EG should have told Abe that the roster was incapable of winning a championship no matter what he did with the #5 and that Abe was essentially asking EG to mortgage the future in order to get to the 2nd round of the playoffs. We don't know if that conversation took place, but I'm guessing it did not. EG probably didn't want to crush the hopes of a dying man.

[Dat2U]

My point is that he should be judged more on smart or dumb decision-making than on outcomes, and smart organizations judge their employees this way, to the extent that it is possible. For example, smart organizations (of which, alas, there are to few) do not reward their financial advisors for taking reckless risks with their money where the typical outcome is a slightly better return but where there is a large chance of complete disaster, but do reward smart risks where the increased return is worth the risk. Now of course it's not always obvious which is which, but sometimes it is pretty clear, and to the extent that you can tell it's foolish to reward stupid risks that turned out well or to punish smart risks that didn't pan out.

Now I don't think it's obvious how smart EG's trade was. I think Miller has played well and fit in well. If not for his injury problems and of course Gilbert's implosion, things might have turned out entirely differently. Foye might have been worth more as a backup on the team we hoped we had.

I'm not sure how Miller has played well and fit in. IMO, he's been a huge part of the problem. For most of the season I found his unwillingness to take open shots an offense killer. To me its just as selfish and as bad as jacking up too many shots. Miller either is unwilling or inherently struggles to find the balance b/w when to pass and when to shoot. Sorta like Gil struggled earlier this year with the same problem although his method, style of play & outcome was totally different.

Foye was dreadful as a backup this year. He was initially replaced by a 34 yr old 5-5 guy off the street. Then later on this season right before he went down with a season ending injuty, he was replaced by a dude who's leg was close to amputation two years ago.

We found out two things about Foye this year. He can't play off the ball and be effective. He was absolutely invisible whenever he played SG. Secondly, he can be productive in spurts as a ball dominant combo guard, but you won't win many games with him dominating the rock b/c the offense has no flow whatsoever.

Finally, I'm tired of people suggesting that Gil's implosion was the sole reason for our struggles. This team was doomed from the start and that was long before Gil brought guns into the locker room. Chemistry, staleness, lack of athleticism, a coach the failed to adjust quick enough all contributed to the failures this year.

I don't claim to know whether it was a smart move; I knew essentially nothing about Foye before he came here, though I did like Miller quite a bit. But I am absolutely convinced that when possible judging GM's based on how smart their choices are makes more sense than judging based on outcomes.

Now of course ability to judge talent and predict outcomes is a large part of what you want in a GM, but I don't think the events of this season were predictable. We all knew (EG included) that things might fall apart (Gil's knee being the most obvious issue at the time) but it was not unreasonable to plan for the possibility that looked quite likely at the time -- that we would have a good veteran team to which Miller would add a nice additional part and for which Foye would fill a need too.

As far as judging GMs, its fine to look at each move individually and make certain determinations from it, but honestly, the best way to judge a GM in my opinion is to look at the overall picture and see the fruit of their work.

Even if every move appeared smart at the time, the fact is, whe had to blow up the entire roster almost two months ago. Eight months after sacrificing the future to compete now. Five years after sacrificing the future (the original Jamison trade) so we could average 42 wins over the next 4 seasons.

EG has been here six years and what do we have to show for it? One playoff series win nearly 5 years ago. I think its obvious that EG's brand of "smart" decision making isn't really all that smart.

[Dat2U]

Basically, EG failed because he was afraid to take risk. That's not the type of guy you want at the head of any organization.

See, I've never gotten this argument. How is trading a lottery pick for two vets who are about to be FA's not a "risk"? Especially when the entire season would hinge on a guy who'd only played 15 games the previous two seasons? This was a HUGE gamble by Grunfeld IMO with the intent to compete right now. Maybe you didn't like the move, but I can't see how you can say there was no risk involved.

Great point Lyrical. You actually made a better argument than I could of for why this was such a horrible move.

[Dat2U]

Dat, Foye had good production when he came back from injury in Min. I’m not digging up the stats but bad team or not Foye indicated that he is capable of consistent production. You answered your own question. At 27 he has at least 5 solid years left where he’d be a role player on a good team. The Wizards would be wise to choose a cheaper Livingston over Foye but that doesn’t mean Randy won’t be a coveted piece for a contending team in FA. It wouldn’t surprise me too much if Randy is starting for the Spurs or Lakers next season.

That's where we disagree. I don't see Foye as a good role player. I see him as a guy that needs to dominate the ball and play starters minutes to be effective. But honestly, he's not good enough to do either and help the team win.

Maybe Foye will adapt his game and learn to play of the ball ala Derrick Fisher. I believe he's got the skills to do so, but he hasn't done so as of yet.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Basically, EG failed because he was afraid to take risk. That's not the type of guy you want at the head of any organization.

See, I've never gotten this argument. How is trading a lottery pick for two vets who are about to be FA's not a "risk"? Especially when the entire season would hinge on a guy who'd only played 15 games the previous two seasons? This was a HUGE gamble by Grunfeld IMO with the intent to compete right now. Maybe you didn't like the move, but I can't see how you can say there was no risk involved.

He did take a risk. But he shouldn't be rewarded for failure -- especially when a better, more critical analysis would have led him away from that trade.

And I favored the trade at the time and I supported EG for a long while. But the proof is in the pudding. The last time we sucked he built us into a 45 win team. That's his track record. Let's give someone else a chance.

EG redeemed himself quite a bit in my eyes at the trade deadline. It's like he made a dozen bad moves and one just short of great move. I'm a very forgiving person.

In the past I think he made mistake generally selecting shooters over well-rounded players. What he indicated to me the past few drafts is that he's virtually an imcompentent when it comes to projecting which players will compete at the next level. Passing on Curry or Blair last season was just bad. Passing on Thornton or Douglas or Collison or Matthews (I knew he'd be good because his dad had a long NBA career and younger Matthews had a terrific senior year at Marquette) -- was also bad. EG could have traded down and had any of them plus future assets, with no big contracts to re-sign.

I think EG's just not that good and I hope Ted replaces him.

However, if EG drafts I do have to credit him for Blatche and even McGee. Who knows but EG might not surprise?

[Consiglieri81]

1. I have absolutely no problem letting Foye go at this point.

2. In fairness to EG, the trade was not necessarily unwise, given the information available to him at the time. In hindsight, it was a bust, but so are some early draft picks.

3. I like the way Miller & Blatche play together. I would like to see an offense built around Arenas & those two -- a much better passing trio than the old "Big 3". And Miller at 30 still has some good years left. All that being said, I have to admit that it's a dubious proposition to bring him back at this stage in rebuilding. I'd be willing to consider keeping him, depending on who we end up drafting and what Miller costs (and for how long). In the end, we'll probably have to let him go, but I'm not ready to accept that conclusion just yet.

I would argue it was a horrible, reprehensible trade from day one, but it's the same exact reason I'm bashing the Redskins right now. Trades need to have a pay off that makes sense, in my view, either it's aiding the rebuilding process (acquiring picks, and youngsters to help build around, what the caps specialized in from 2001-2007 as they engaged in a seven year/three year rebuild plan), or the "last piece plan", basically why acquiring McNabb would have made sense for a team like Minnesota this year, or the Jets last year, but not at all for the Raiders or Redskins this year, or in the case of our trade, acquiring those guys would make sense if you're one of the big 3 or four in either conference and have needs there. The Wiz were never going to challenge for squat this year, regardless of the trade. Not squat. Their ceiling was going to be moved from 35-42 wins if healthy, to 45-47 if healthy w/this move. What would that get us? Probably a ticket straight home after game five or six of a first round match up if we were lucky.

Why in hell do that? If your foundation can't get the job done (and it was long ago clear that it was never going to happen) why on earth keep running in a locker room, lowering your head, and banging your head against the wall. What is the point? That is why I was so enraged by that trade last summer, even w/a questionable talent pool to select from after the horror lotto experience, and that's why im so enraged now at the Redskins for doing something nearly as bad this week. It just makes no sense to me. Trades are about cementing pieces necessary to make deep runs, or acquiring pieces to rebuild a team. The only trades that don't fit these parameters, are trades to make a late season playoff run (and I understand them, the deals baseball teams make in july, and hoops and hockey teams make in feb), and trades that stupid teams make (in my opinion) and this definitely fits the latter definition.

We flushed a chance to get a genunine rebuild piece, and we are never going to get that piece back, not ever. I don't believe any of the guys save maybe Rubio (super long shot) and Jennings will ever be Franchise level game changers, but they certainly could have been those Robin To Bat Man caliber players all truly elite teams have, and instead we flushed it, for what was cap room. I never understood it then, and I dont understand why the redskins did it now. It's just depressing, you'd think the Redskins would see what the Wiz did, and learn from it, but it seems like no franchise in this town ever learns from any other one.

Sorry for the epic whining, I just get pissed even thinking about this. Hopefully the lotto gods will smile on us for the first time ever and give us lotto luck and player luck.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I also HATE what the Redskins just did, Consiglieri.

What I think's going to happen is they'll discover Jason Campbell is far more durable than McNabb. Maybe trade for a franchise offensive tackle, not overpay for McNabb.

[hands11]

Well before this year he did improve in successive seasons. The change this year did influence him to play differently. Foye is a good team player but I think he hurts himself by not creating more often. Anyway, I think he can do more than just shoot but he’s hurt himself this year by being passive.

Code: Select all

Season    Age Tm  G   PER  TS% eFG%  FG%  3P%  FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF  PTS
2006-07    23 MIN 82 14.0 .536 .483 .434 .368 .854 4.2 4.4 1.0 0.4 2.9 3.5 15.9
2007-08    24 MIN 39 12.7 .520 .495 .429 .412 .815 3.7 4.7 1.0 0.1 2.3 2.9 14.6
2008-09    25 MIN 70 13.7 .517 .463 .407 .360 .846 3.1 4.4 1.0 0.4 2.2 2.9 16.4
2009-10    26 WAS 70 13.3 .516 .464 .414 .346 .890 2.8 4.9 0.7 0.2 2.0 2.7 15.2
Career           261 13.5 .522 .474 .419 .368 .855 3.4 4.6 1.0 0.3 2.3 3.0 15.7

Exactly when did he ever improve? He's been basically the exact same player since the day he was drafted. He's never had a PER over 14.0 (league avg is 15.0). He hasn't developed into a credible PG or defender. There's absolutely no indication that he'll ever improve. Plus he'll be 27 in Sept. At what point do you call a spade a spade?

how does he stack up vs nick young

[LyricalRico]

Basically, EG failed because he was afraid to take risk. That's not the type of guy you want at the head of any organization.

See, I've never gotten this argument. How is trading a lottery pick for two vets who are about to be FA's not a "risk"? Especially when the entire season would hinge on a guy who'd only played 15 games the previous two seasons? This was a HUGE gamble by Grunfeld IMO with the intent to compete right now. Maybe you didn't like the move, but I can't see how you can say there was no risk involved.

Great point Lyrical. You actually made a better argument than I could of for why this was such a horrible move.

Nice try.

[hands11]

Dat, Foye had good production when he came back from injury in Min. I’m not digging up the stats but bad team or not Foye indicated that he is capable of consistent production. You answered your own question. At 27 he has at least 5 solid years left where he’d be a role player on a good team. The Wizards would be wise to choose a cheaper Livingston over Foye but that doesn’t mean Randy won’t be a coveted piece for a contending team in FA. It wouldn’t surprise me too much if Randy is starting for the Spurs or Lakers next season.

And hopefully the FO lets both players leave this offseason. The cap space is a benefit that some of you guys need take heed of and stop complaining about EG's trade. Especially if the FO pulls in a FA or sign/trade talent because of the space.

Foye is a fine back up Gil light. Price adjusted for stats, Foye is a better value but since he doesn't have the upside explosiveness of Gil, you pay for that extra upside. Even thought I think Gil is over paid for his value, we have caps room next year to ride this out a little longer while taking another look and raising his value. And with that, Foye makes a fine back up to him. Now if we could get Wade for Gil, that would be awesome. Lets do it now.

And MM is a solid vet who IMO we need to steady the ship. He is a balls out hustle guy who can fill the stat sheet with rebounds, assists and the 3 ball when he is open. He plays through injury. He even started to drive a little more lately. MM looked worse because we didn't have enough around him to let him do what he does. Usually a quality player who plays with in themselves is a good thing. We just need more so we wanted him to extend himself.

Foye and MM were not brought here to start. They were bench depth and they should be that again next year.

Foye is way more reliable than Nick. And he can make a big shot late. Something you want in the playoffs.

People can re-visit this for as long as they like. It's a free country and mostly free board , but at some point, they will start looking forward more than backward.

TED is on the way. That is the next big news to complete.

Hey, we cleared cap.
We found Dray and Livingston
McGee is slowly getting better.
And we found some other role players to keep in Singleton, and I think MM and Foye.

I'm excited about next year already.

[no D in Hibachi]

Foye is terrible unless he's one of the focal points of the offense, and when he's a focal point of the offense the team is terrible. When MM came back and put Foye to the bench earlier this season Foye became udderly worthless. It got to the point where he lost his spot in the rotation to DeShawn Stevenson because he doesn't do anything at least on an average basis. Foye is hardly more reliable than N1. N1 is up and down because he PT is up and down. Foye got starter minutes pretty much 2/3rds of the season and did nothing well. When the coach shows confidence in N1 he can fill it up and is a good man to man defender. Foye can't do either of those. He's a worthless NBA player and resigning him would be the equivalent of resigning Mitch Richmond. Just compound a terrible decision. Even if Gilbert never plays another game for the Wizards and they have to eat all $80M of his contract he'd still have better value to the Wiz than Foye had to the Wiz this season. Foye was that big of a disappointment and I won't be surprised if Foye is no longer in the league after next season.

[ErikChowbay023]

got damn!!! a little harsh dont you think?

[verbal8]

Even if Gilbert never plays another game for the Wizards and they have to eat all $80M of his contract he'd still have better value to the Wiz than Foye had to the Wiz this season. Foye was that big of a disappointment and I won't be surprised if Foye is no longer in the league after next season.

I don't think 4 million(Foye's salary) and the 5th pick last year for a decent but disappointing player is as bad as an $80 million worthless player.

[fishercob]

[quote="LyricalRico"

See, I've never gotten this argument. How is trading a lottery pick for two vets who are about to be FA's not a "risk"? Especially when the entire season would hinge on a guy who'd only played 15 games the previous two seasons? This was a HUGE gamble by Grunfeld IMO with the intent to compete right now. Maybe you didn't like the move, but I can't see how you can say there was no risk involved.

He did take a risk. But he shouldn't be rewarded for failure -- especially when a better, more critical analysis would have led him away from that trade.

And I favored the trade at the time and I supported EG for a long while. But the proof is in the pudding. The last time we sucked he built us into a 45 win team. That's his track record. Let's give someone else a chance.

EG redeemed himself quite a bit in my eyes at the trade deadline. It's like he made a dozen bad moves and one just short of great move. I'm a very forgiving person.

In the past I think he made mistake generally selecting shooters over well-rounded players. What he indicated to me the past few drafts is that he's virtually an imcompentent when it comes to projecting which players will compete at the next level. Passing on Curry or Blair last season was just bad. Passing on Thornton or Douglas or Collison or Matthews (I knew he'd be good because his dad had a long NBA career and younger Matthews had a terrific senior year at Marquette) -- was also bad. EG could have traded down and had any of them plus future assets, with no big contracts to re-sign.

I think EG's just not that good and I hope Ted replaces him.

However, if EG drafts I do have to credit him for Blatche and even McGee. Who knows but EG might not surprise?[/quote]

Funny, CCJ. I supported the draft night trade and it was EG's handling of the deadline that was the last straw for me. You hated the trade but think EG did well at the deadline. At least we're in agreement that he's not very good

[closg00]

30. MIKE MILLER, SG

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Age: 30 | Height: 6-8
Experience: 10 years | '09-10 Team: Wizards
2009-10 Stats: 10.6 pt | 6.3 reb | 3.7 ast
Status: Unrestricted free agent

The Skinny: Miller changed his game completely in Minnesota in 2008-09. Most agree the change was for the worse: MiMi effectively stopped shooting, turning himself into a facilitating wing. The problem? Miller is one of his generation's best shooters, a career 40-percenter from three. His team needs him to shoot, shoot, shoot. Miller didn't revert to form in Washington, though; in fact, he got worst, shooting threes at a frequency lower than any other season in his NBA career. It's inexplicable, and a huge red flag for any team looking to sign Miller this summer.

SI's FA profile of MM, still think teams are going to be clammoring to sign him? MM ranked 30th on the top-50.

[closg00]

43. RANDY FOYE, SG

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Age: 26 | Height: 6-4
Experience: 4 years | '09-10 Team: Wizards
2009-10 Stats: 10.1 pt | 3.3 ast
Status: Restricted free agent ($4.8 million qualifying offer)


The Skinny: Foye, acquired with Mike Miller for Washington's No. 5 pick in the 2009 draft (Ricky Rubio), didn't make the impact expected in D.C. A guard once traded for Brandon Roy and cash, Foye has been a bust, clearly a bench player, and perhaps not even a good one at that. A middling scorer who gets his points inefficiently, a poor defender lacking instincts, Foye's only real positive attributes are his ball-handling skills, which are good for a two-guard and below average for a point guard. But combos off the bench are all the rage, and the fact that Foye has been on nothing but bad teams might lead some GM to make Foye a decent offer.

Snap, they flammed Foye

[miller31time]

30. MIKE MILLER, SG

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Age: 30 | Height: 6-8
Experience: 10 years | '09-10 Team: Wizards
2009-10 Stats: 10.6 pt | 6.3 reb | 3.7 ast
Status: Unrestricted free agent

The Skinny: Miller changed his game completely in Minnesota in 2008-09. Most agree the change was for the worse: MiMi effectively stopped shooting, turning himself into a facilitating wing. The problem? Miller is one of his generation's best shooters, a career 40-percenter from three. His team needs him to shoot, shoot, shoot. Miller didn't revert to form in Washington, though; in fact, he got worst, shooting threes at a frequency lower than any other season in his NBA career. It's inexplicable, and a huge red flag for any team looking to sign Miller this summer.

SI's FA profile of MM, still think teams are going to be clammoring to sign him? MM ranked 30th on the top-50.

Weird how everyone in the universe can see this except Mike Miller.

I mean, props to him for not being a selfish player but...there's a limit.