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Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown

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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#41 » by closg00 » Thu Jul 9, 2009 3:45 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:I think it's just as possible that Nick Young "gives." Nick's going to have show some real improvement to be worth keeping.


:nod: That position is the easiest to fill and so-far and Nick doesn't even look like a 2nd rounder so-far.
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#42 » by nate33 » Thu Jul 9, 2009 3:57 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:I think it's just as possible that Nick Young "gives." Nick's going to have show some real improvement to be worth keeping.

Except that Nick Young will cost $2.6M while Miller will be a $6M+ per year commitment for several years. Factoring the luxtax, would you rather pay Mike Miller $12-14M or Nick Young $5-6M? Is the upgrade from Young to Miller worth an additional $8M per year?

Obviously, we won't know the answer to the question until we've seen them both play in Flip's system. But my money is on the guy who is $8M cheaper, 7 years younger, and on his way to being the better defender.
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#43 » by nate33 » Thu Jul 9, 2009 4:04 pm

closg00 wrote:Nick doesn't even look like a 2nd rounder so-far.

That's hyperbole. He posts a PER of 13 and leads the team in on/off differential. His game certainly has holes, but he has already shown that he's worthy of a spot on an NBA team. Most 2nd round picks don't ever make it past their 2nd season. Young looks like what he is, a mid first round pick. On balance, guys picked outside of the lottery end up being reserves or role-playing starters.

I'd like to see more out of Young give his incredible physical talents, but let's not exaggerate his deficiencies. He's a decent player who still has a chance of becoming a good player.
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#44 » by TheSecretWeapon » Thu Jul 9, 2009 4:25 pm

closg sorta has a point. Justin Kubatko at www.basketball-reference.com did an analysis looking at what teams can expect on average from their draft position. The 16th pick in the draft historically produces 9.0 Win Shares (a summary measure Kubatko designed, which is based on Dean Oliver's work). Young -- in his first 2 seasons -- has 1.5 Win Shares.

If we double Nick's 1.2 Win Shares from last season and assume he produces that over each of the next 2 seasons, Nick would have 6.3 Win Shares after 4 seasons. That's about what we'd expect from a 24th or 25th pick.

If he produces exactly has he did last season, Young would add another 2.4 Win Shares to stand at 3.9 through 4 seasons -- about what we'd expect from a 39th pick.

Yes, non-lottery picks do usually end up as reserves or role-playing starters, but it's safe to say Young has underperformed his draft position thus far in his career.
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#45 » by nate33 » Tue Jul 14, 2009 2:29 pm

I updated the original post again.

There are still plenty of decent veteran power forwards out there and very few teams left with money. Besides Oberto, there's still Joe Smith, Chris Wilcox, Leon Powe, Big Baby, Ben Wallace and Drew Gooden.
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#46 » by fishercob » Tue Jul 14, 2009 2:59 pm

nate33 wrote:I updated the original post again.

There are still plenty of decent veteran power forwards out there and very few teams left with money. Besides Oberto, there's still Joe Smith, Chris Wilcox, Leon Powe, Big Baby, Ben Wallace and Drew Gooden.


One small thing. I read that Houston did not use their MLE on Ariza. They used an injured player exception the league granted them b/c of Yao.
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#47 » by nate33 » Tue Jul 14, 2009 3:10 pm

Thanks. I amended my post accordingly.
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#48 » by fishercob » Fri Jul 17, 2009 3:49 pm

Nate, what would a Boozer and/or Odom acquisition do to Miami's cap room next summer. From a basketball perspective, I worry about them as a suitor for Haywood, so I'm really hoping this would kill their cap room.
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#49 » by LyricalRico » Fri Jul 17, 2009 4:05 pm

fishercob wrote:Nate, what would a Boozer and/or Odom acquisition do to Miami's cap room next summer. From a basketball perspective, I worry about them as a suitor for Haywood, so I'm really hoping this would kill their cap room.


According to this link, they're scheduled to only have about $30M in committed salary next summer:

http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages ... s/heat.jsp

Assuming they trade expirings for Boozer, that won't affect them. If Odom signs for the MLE, that brings them up to $36M committed to 6 players (including Wade). Even if the cap drops to around $50M that still leaves them with enough cash to re-sign Boozer or offer a near-max deal to somebody else.
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#50 » by closg00 » Wed Jul 22, 2009 7:56 pm

"MIAMI -- Reserve Jamaal Magloire has re-signed with the Miami Heat, giving the team four centers under contract."

Cross another cheapie off the list.
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#51 » by LyricalRico » Wed Jul 22, 2009 8:41 pm

^ Not worried about it. I actually think some language dialects use "Magloire" and "slowest man alive" interchangeably.
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#52 » by nate33 » Thu Jul 23, 2009 4:26 am

Bump.

Nate's Free Agency 2009 Analysis:
These are my estimates of what the current crop of free agents will cost. This is what I think they are worth in a normal market. I suspect that some of the Top Tier free agents will find themselves getting Second Tier money, and some of the Second Tier free agents will find themselves getting Bargain Basement money. There is a lot of supply in the market and not much demand.

Top Tier Free Agents (full MLE or more)
PGs
A.Miller
SGs
Iverson
SFs
Marv.Williams
PFs
Lee
Gooden
Cs

Second Tier Free Agents ($2-5M)
PGs
Sessions
N.Robinson
C.J. Watson
SGs
McCants
SFs
Kleiza
Szczerbiak
PFs
J.Smith
Powe
G.Davis
Diogu
Cs
Nesterovic
B.Wallace

Bargain Basement (LLE or less)
PGs
Marbury
SGs
J.Stackhouse
K.Bogans
Pavlovic
SFs
D.Mason
Udoka
Tim Thomas
PFs
S.Williams
Mensah-Bonsu
Skinner
Moore
Oberto
A.Walker
St.Swift
C.Simmons
Cs
A.Gray
Jason Collins
A.Foyle

Players with partially guaranteed contracts or team options who may become free agents:
S.Blake
Outlaw
Bowen


Team by Team Analysis:Looking at the financial situations of the teams in the league, we can gauge the probability that they will participate in the free agency market. Here is my analysis:

Won't participate in free agency: These teams won't be players in the free agency market. That is, they won't commit anything more than vet-minimum money
Charlotte: full roster, luxtax
Chicago: saving for 2010, luxtax
Denver: luxtax, resigning Anderson is all they'll do
Detroit: used up cap room already
Indiana: luxtax
LA Lakers: Signed Artest and resigned Odom. They're done.
Memphis: used up cap room in Randolph trade
Miami: saving for 2010
Milwaukee: strapped for cash but will be $5M under luxtax if they cut Bowen. Highly doubtful they'll spend it after sacrificing RJeff in a salary dump.
New Orleans: luxtax
Phoenix: luxtax
San Antonio: Used up cap room on McDyess. They could still resign Gooden, I suppose.
Utah: luxtax. Trying to dump Boozer in order to retain Millsap.

Might participate in free agency:
Boston: Used MLE on Rasheed. Will they also resign both Powe and Big Baby?
Golden State: cap situation is tight with a lot of long term contracts. May have enough luxtax room for one Second Tier free agent
Houston: Ariza signing was made using injury exemption. Still have the MLE available but may choose not to spend it in order to have enough 2010 cap room for a max free agent.
LA Clippers: Plenty of luxtax room but a cheap franchise
Minnesota: $13M in luxtax room but might just wait until 2010. Have no need for PF's or PG's.
New Jersey: have enough room for two max contracts in 2010, but may decide to buy some bargains this year and save only enough for one max contract
New York: have enough room for one max contract plus another $8M or so next year. May spend some of that $8M this year. There's a good chance they'll resign Lee.
Oklahoma City: Have $8M in cap space but may be better off using it to acquire picks and other assets from teams struggling to get under the luxtax.
Orlando: Payroll is astronomical after matching Gortat and signing Bass. They still have about $2M of the MLE left.
Sacramento: About $7M in cap space. Need a PG bad but may wait until 2010 when they have more cap room.
Toronto: Turkaglu deal was actually a trade, leaving them with cap room. They used most of their MLE on Jarrett Jack. Have less than $2M left.

Probable participants in free agency:
Atlanta: No cap space due to holds on Childress and M.Williams. Already resigned Bibby and Zaza. Will probably resign Williams. Have the MLE available.
Cleveland: Spent a lot of money so far on Shaq and Varajeo, but still have MLE available. May have used some of the MLE on Anthony Parker, his deal wasn't disclosed.
Dallas: Full MLE available since Orlando matched Gortat, and appear willing to spend it. Need a center and a true SG. There are none left on the market.
Philadelphia: $9M in luxtax room but needs a PG. Probably will resign A.Miller, though Sessions might be considered given the age of the rest of their squad.
Portland: Only $7M in cap room but could be $11M if they cut Blake and Outlaw. Need SF and PG. Reportedly looking at Andre Miller.

How it affects us:More and more teams have shot their wad, yet there's still a few decent veteran bigs on the market. I'd be happy with Nesterovic, Oberto, Joe Smith or Powe. But how much more do we need to offer to lure them away from championship contenders waiving vet-minimum offers?

Diogu might be interesting, but I don't see EG going after a young inexperienced guy like that.

I'm a little surprised nobody has picked up Gooden yet. Of course, I don't particularly want him either, so maybe I shouldn't be surprised.
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#53 » by closg00 » Thu Jul 23, 2009 12:22 pm

Nice analysis as always Nate. You appear to be more optimistic about other teams not making a move for the remaining left-overs of available bigs. For an alternate take on this big-man watch, I reccomend peeps check-out truthaboutit's latest blog entry.

I can’t really take issue with Grunfeld’s “wait and see what’s left” approach (aka the crumb snatcha). The Wizards have made it clear that they’re unwilling to dive much further into luxury tax territory, and I’m down with maintaining flexibility for the upcoming season and beyond.

Problem being, Washington isn’t the only team following this strategy. It’s a sword fight and all the other unsheathed pricks in the room have set their sights much lower than the prom queen and her court. They realize that the remaining options are low maintenance and could be better (in bed).

http://www.truthaboutit.net/2009/07/biz ... rcyde.html
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#54 » by verbal8 » Thu Jul 23, 2009 1:46 pm

closg00 wrote:"MIAMI -- Reserve Jamaal Magloire has re-signed with the Miami Heat, giving the team four centers under contract."

Cross another cheapie off the list.


I think Maligoire is like a 6'11" version of Mike James. They both had one good season that fooled people into thinking he was more than a marginal NBA player.
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#55 » by closg00 » Thu Jul 23, 2009 2:08 pm

verbal8 wrote:
closg00 wrote:"MIAMI -- Reserve Jamaal Magloire has re-signed with the Miami Heat, giving the team four centers under contract."

Cross another cheapie off the list.


I think Maligoire is like a 6'11" version of Mike James. They both had one good season that fooled people into thinking he was more than a marginal NBA player.


So-true, glad he's off the list. D-Wade can't be thrilled by Miami's off-season moves so-far, I wouldn't bet on him staying in Miami.
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#56 » by verbal8 » Thu Jul 23, 2009 2:38 pm

Is Odom definitely going back to the Lakers?
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#57 » by LyricalRico » Thu Jul 23, 2009 2:50 pm

Wow, nate, I gotta disagree with some of your rankings. Joe Smith (age), Powe (injury), and Diogu (completely unproven) should probably be in the LLE section. While Earl Watson and Marquis Daniels should be bumped up to the $2-5M range as relatively young guys who have been starters.

Also, Rashad McCants is an RFA. He was drafted in 2005 so last season was the final year of his rookie deal.
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#58 » by nate33 » Thu Jul 23, 2009 3:06 pm

LyricalRico wrote:Wow, nate, I gotta disagree with some of your rankings. Joe Smith (age), Powe (injury), and Diogu (completely unproven) should probably be in the LLE section. While Earl Watson and Marquis Daniels should be bumped up to the $2-5M range as relatively young guys who have been starters.

Also, Rashad McCants is an RFA. He was drafted in 2005 so last season was the final year of his rookie deal.

The Celtics will sign Marquis Daniels for their biannual exception if the Pacers aren't interested in a sign-and-trade.

A league source told Yahoo! Sports on Friday that Daniels had committed to sign with Boston.

The biannual exception is worth $1.9 million.


Earl Watson, who was waived by the Thunder on Friday, will join the Pacersnext week once he becomes a free agent.

Watson agreed to a one-year deal with Indiana on Friday night, but the financial terms of the contract were not yet known.

The addition of Watson will help fill the void left behind by Jarrett Jack if the Pacers don't match the four-year, $20 million offer sheet he signed with the Raptors.

I was right on Daniels. He signed for the LLE. We'll see if I'm right on Watson. And if he signed for more than the LLE, it was probably because he agreed to just a 1-year deal. I bet a multi-year offer for the LLE or less would have been good enough to land him.

I agree that Powe and Diogu might end up going for the LLE. But I think it's because there was a glut of PF's this summer. In a normal offseason, they'd be worth something in the $2-5M range, so that's where I put them. My point is that I think we can get a guy who's worth $2-5M for just the LLE or vet minimum.
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#59 » by LyricalRico » Thu Jul 23, 2009 3:33 pm

^ Gotcha, you were working off of the reports. I was looking at your list as a ranking of the players "value" in relation to others on the list.
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Re: Nate's 2009 Free Agency Breakdown 

Post#60 » by verbal8 » Thu Jul 23, 2009 3:41 pm

LyricalRico wrote:Also, Rashad McCants is an RFA. He was drafted in 2005 so last season was the final year of his rookie deal.


The Kings did not make him a qualifying offer.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/player ... BA&id=1116

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