Official Standings/Draft Position Watch Thread

[yungal07]

I think we had one of these last year, and again, it would be fitting to have another.

As of now, the Wiz are tied for the 5th worst record in the league with Sacramento. The Knicks won (big) tonight, so we moved up ahead of the Jazz a couple of spots. Hoping for a G-State win tonight as well.

[Wizards2Lottery]

We'll be climbing upwards as long as our guards continue to play like ass.

[yungal07]

GS wins. A good night for the ping pong balls for us.

[closg00]

Sweet!

[MJG]

We've lost our seven games so far this month by 12.2 PPG, and only one of those games was truly winnable (against Boston). We could very easily go 0-17 on the month. Even if you're feeling optimistic, you really can't go higher than 2-15, if say we beat Indiana and then luck out on one of the other games.

As I said in another thread a bit back, the real test is April. Five games against non-playoff teams, four of which are against our direct competitors in the lottery. And our other three, against Boston, Orlando, and Atlanta, come in the last week, when it's entirely possible seedings may be decided and they may limit their best players. It sounds ridiculous right now, but we could easily finish on a 4-4 run and really screw up our lottery positioning.

[nate33]

We've lost our seven games so far this month by 12.2 PPG, and only one of those games was truly winnable (against Boston). We could very easily go 0-17 on the month. Even if you're feeling optimistic, you really can't go higher than 2-15, if say we beat Indiana and then luck out on one of the other games.

As I said in another thread a bit back, the real test is April. Five games against non-playoff teams, four of which are against our direct competitors in the lottery. And our other three, against Boston, Orlando, and Atlanta, come in the last week, when it's entirely possible seedings may be decided and they may limit their best players. It sounds ridiculous right now, but we could easily finish on a 4-4 run and really screw up our lottery positioning.

Blatche needs to "take a dive" in April.

[Hoopalotta]

Looks like the fundamentals of flubbing lay as so:

Indiana Commuter Traffic: 4th seed - 29.5 games back
7 games against against woe worn wobblers

Washington Sea Dogs: Tied for 5th seed - 29 games back (though a tie, Kings have one more win, we have one less loss)
5 games against hex-harried harlots

Sacramento Tyrants: Tied for 5th seed - 29 games back
6 games against sundry o' slinking suck

New York Knee Breaches: tied for 7th seed - 28 games back
6 games against yon yucky yella'bellies

Detroit Mud Flaps: tied for 7th seed - 28 games back
5 games against scab scarred stillborns

'Delphi Cheese Steaks: 9th seed - 27.5 games back
4 games against muck mired midgets

Oakland Jihadis: Let's just not even bother listing these guys 'til they pull a 'mouse that roared' run.

Los Angles Garbage Barges: Conversely, we'll assume they don't descend down deep enough to scare us.

[hands11]

Good idea for a thread. I think this stuff was getting mixed in around in other thread but it is obviously a primary focus. And I like your choice for names instead of some tank thread.

I never want to see my team play bad and I will always be short sided in cheering them on to beat better teams but quality looses is the theme of the day if I stop and think about it.

So we are in fifth and short of 4th by a game to Indy.

No one is catching NJ. Probably the best we could do is 3rd but more likely 4th or 5th given our talent. Sadly, given Dray's play and maybe a home run in Livingston, we are at risk of doing better. But to our advantage is our schedule of so many game in a short period and our lake of established center.

It is really as good as it can get if you think about it. I would love to start the season over today and see what we could do but we have the advantage of two first round picks to work with and we are under the cap.

GO WIZ

[hands11]

We've lost our seven games so far this month by 12.2 PPG, and only one of those games was truly winnable (against Boston). We could very easily go 0-17 on the month. Even if you're feeling optimistic, you really can't go higher than 2-15, if say we beat Indiana and then luck out on one of the other games.

As I said in another thread a bit back, the real test is April. Five games against non-playoff teams, four of which are against our direct competitors in the lottery. And our other three, against Boston, Orlando, and Atlanta, come in the last week, when it's entirely possible seedings may be decided and they may limit their best players. It sounds ridiculous right now, but we could easily finish on a 4-4 run and really screw up our lottery positioning.

I agree. We have the potential to be better then we want. So much rides on coaching and McGee. Center is the thing that is most up in the air right now. We are going to loose to teams like Orlando unless the coach plays Dray at center. He is our best defensive center right now and our best PF. But winning at the end of a season is good also. With everything there is a yin and yang.

[yungal07]

Looks like Sac is going to win big tonight, giving us some distance between the 5th and sixth seeds...

[verbal8]

I think the Nets, Twolves and Golden State are pretty much locked in to finish worse than the Wizards. Golden State is 3 games lower than the Wizards and they have only 5 games left against teams that are fewer than 32 wins.

The Wizards only have 4 games with teams with fewer than 32 wins. 2 of those are against the Pacers. If the Wizards lose both of those or even split, I think they drop below the Pacers. The Pacers have 6 games against teams with fewer than 32 wins.

I think the one team that could drop below the Wizards is the Sixers. They are on a slide, playing the young players more and EJ's impending firing can't be helping them win games.

So I think the Wizards are finishing somewhere between 4th and 6th worst.

[closg00]

My thinking now is:

1. Hope to fall no-lower than 4th at ping-pong time
2. Mock scenarios for picks 4-7
3. Break-out the champagne if we get a top-3 pick

[nate33]

If we finish with the 6th best record, we have a 21.5% chance at a top 3 pick

If we finish with the 5th best record, we have a 29.2% chance at a top 3 pick

If we finish with the 4th best record, we have a 37.8% chance at a top 3 pick plus a 9.9% chance at the 4th pick.

The difference between 4th and 5th is huge. At 4th place, we have a 47.7% chance at landing a top 4 pick. At 5th place, we have just a 29.2% chance at a top 4 pick.

[AceDegenerate]

A Top 5 pick in any Draft is valuable. Out of the massive pool of players every season, how is it you can miss @ 5? I know there is only a handful of sure-thing players every year, so what? The list of quality players/stars drafted after 5 in any year is enough to know the draft is a valuable resource.

The fact that we have traded away the last 2 Top 5'ers we had stinks. Not only did it set us back (this past one definitely if you don't believe trading #5 for AJ did), but it is a huge part of the fan experience that just doesn't happen here. I really hope we don't trade the pick again this year.

[montestewart]

If we finish with the 6th best record, we have a 21.5% chance at a top 3 pick

If we finish with the 5th best record, we have a 29.2% chance at a top 3 pick

If we finish with the 4th best record, we have a 37.8% chance at a top 3 pick plus a 9.9% chance at the 4th pick.

The difference between 4th and 5th is huge. At 4th place, we have a 47.7% chance at landing a top 4 pick. At 5th place, we have just a 29.2% chance at a top 4 pick.

I haven't read the odds for the draft recently (like today) but that seems like the average odds for landing a 1-3 pick are greater than the odds for landing a 4th pick, which seems odd. Maybe I need another coffee.

[nate33]

If we finish with the 6th best record, we have a 21.5% chance at a top 3 pick

If we finish with the 5th best record, we have a 29.2% chance at a top 3 pick

If we finish with the 4th best record, we have a 37.8% chance at a top 3 pick plus a 9.9% chance at the 4th pick.

The difference between 4th and 5th is huge. At 4th place, we have a 47.7% chance at landing a top 4 pick. At 5th place, we have just a 29.2% chance at a top 4 pick.

I haven't read the odds for the draft recently (like today) but that seems like the average odds for landing a 1-3 pick are greater than the odds for landing a 4th pick, which seems odd. Maybe I need another coffee.

Don't think of it as our "average odds of landing a 4th pick". Think of it as the "odds that nobody seeded 5th or below lands a top 3 pick". The only way to get the 4th pick with the 4th worst record is if the top 3 picks go to the top 3 teams. That's pretty unlikely. Usually, somebody from 4th or lower moves up.

[doclinkin]

Looks like the fundamentals of flubbing lay as so:

Indiana Commuter Traffic: 4th seed - 29.5 games back
7 games against against woe worn wobblers

Washington Sea Dogs: Tied for 5th seed - 29 games back (though a tie, Kings have one more win, we have one less loss)
5 games against hex-harried harlots

Sacramento Tyrants: Tied for 5th seed - 29 games back
6 games against sundry o' slinking suck

New York Knee Breaches: tied for 7th seed - 28 games back
6 games against yon yucky yella'bellies

Detroit Mud Flaps: tied for 7th seed - 28 games back
5 games against scab scarred stillborns

'Delphi Cheese Steaks: 9th seed - 27.5 games back
4 games against muck mired midgets

Oakland Jihadis: Let's just not even bother listing these guys 'til they pull a 'mouse that roared' run.

Los Angles Garbage Barges: Conversely, we'll assume they don't descend down deep enough to scare us.

New York has no stake in this. The Jazz have their pick, TMac is trying to prove he has something left, they've got a swarm of impending free agents trying to audition and show something. D'Antoni would like to look like a good coach, and he's likely not going anywhere so any free agents on the squad better play like he's got the cards if they want to get any PT. They're trying to win, for whatever that's worth.

LA Cripples have a similar deal, though less upside. Still they have the dubious benefit that they just jettisoned a coach, thus they have players who are liberated and want to show they can play a little. Granted sometimes that means there's no ball movement and the veterans will coast nursing phantom injuries. But sometimes that means they get an uptick in energy and occasionally a player will f@#k up and have a good game. Hapless Coach wouldn't mind a win every now and then, hoping for the world to know his name, or at least to convince the general public that in fact he is an actual man, even if his name is 'Kim'. They will slide, but I think we can keep pace.

Pacemakers, Deeetroit and the Ph'ixers are the real contenders for our spot. Pacers have an ossified roster of players that ain't going anywhere and have limited trade value. The only way they improve is via draft talent. But right, they have a halfdozen cupcakes on their schedule upcoming.

Deeetroit Basketbrawl has the same situation, with slightly better talent, and a few leftovers from a Championship who prefer to play with a little pride. Their coach is still trying to win.

Philly's got no chance of a re-set in free agency. They'll lose the coach since he's lost the team, and his primary strength as a coach is player relations, so, that's a done deal. Their schedule isn't quite as brutal as the Wiz', but then again maybe they catch fewer teams trying to rest up and coast into the playoffs. Still, they're probably definitely our toughest competition in the tankstakes.

Plus our guys have been improving a little bit, certainly playing harder than before, with sometimes good defense for all that they're sometimey all over the place. Should be a wild ride.

[montestewart]

If we finish with the 6th best record, we have a 21.5% chance at a top 3 pick

If we finish with the 5th best record, we have a 29.2% chance at a top 3 pick

If we finish with the 4th best record, we have a 37.8% chance at a top 3 pick plus a 9.9% chance at the 4th pick.

The difference between 4th and 5th is huge. At 4th place, we have a 47.7% chance at landing a top 4 pick. At 5th place, we have just a 29.2% chance at a top 4 pick.

I haven't read the odds for the draft recently (like today) but that seems like the average odds for landing a 1-3 pick are greater than the odds for landing a 4th pick, which seems odd. Maybe I need another coffee.

Don't think of it as our "average odds of landing a 4th pick". Think of it as the "odds that nobody seeded 5th or below lands a top 3 pick". The only way to get the 4th pick with the 4th worst record is if the top 3 picks go to the top 3 teams. That's pretty unlikely. Usually, somebody from 4th or lower moves up.

Thanks. I just looked at the odds chart and it makes more sense. I shouldn't work with numbers when I'm tired.

[Donkey McDonkerton]

[yungal07]

A few more losses and we'll be tied with the Pacers for the 4th worst record. They own the tiebreaker so the Wiz would leapfrog them in position.

GS is up against the Lakers in the 3rd.