dj's top 25 of 2015
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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Zordor
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
no love for Justin Anderson...
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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djphan
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
he's made great strides on the offensive end and he's a great defender but his secondary skills.. namely his rebounding and defensive numbers are questionable...
he looks to be a guy who might struggle to hang on in the league but all the guys who are early 2nd rd to late first rd have that same problem... all that said, i'm not too optimistic on him.. he's certainly not top half of the first rd material...
he looks to be a guy who might struggle to hang on in the league but all the guys who are early 2nd rd to late first rd have that same problem... all that said, i'm not too optimistic on him.. he's certainly not top half of the first rd material...
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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Dr Positivity
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
Good posts. I have Delon in my top 10 as well.
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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djphan
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
Part 2...
Rotation Guys
This is the part of the draft when things start taking a bit of a dive and have multiple and more serious questions start popping up for each prospect. It's probable though that at least a few guys out of these remaining groups will have long lasting careers though as they do enough things well to have a puncher's chance at success.
16. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson - He's gone in and out of my board multiple times. When the draft was stronger he didn't project as well but given the folks who chose not to declare a guy like RHJ becomes more appealing if that makes sense. He's pretty much a shoe-in for a rotation spot somewhere given his wide skillset although he might be a journeyman type depending on how fast his offense progresses. The offense does have a lot of work to do but he has enough ball skills where he's not a complete zero.
Celtics - They need a big man and this is the part of the draft where someone attractive could conceivably fall to them. Wood would seem like a good gamble and Jefferson would seem like a solid safe choice. Ainge does have a tendency to go completely off the board so there's no telling who they like.
Questionable Bigs
This group has some potential but have size questions that limit their upside. They all have a long climb to be regular contributors but have enough to like to say that someone might have some impact.
17. Montrezl Harrell - He hasn't had much growth in his college career but he has demonstrated that he is pretty athletic and played at a high level. He has developed a semblance of a mid range game and that will be key to how much potential he will have.
Bucks - This is the part of the draft where Delon probably makes the most sense taking consensus rankings into account. MCW is a pet project for Kidd but Delon should be able to provide a nice Plan B(but really should be Plan A) for them.
18. Jordan Mickey - The most upside in the group but also has the biggest offensive and size questions. He has the necessary explosion and quicks to hang in the league but does he have the strength to bang regularly? He will struggle on offense but if he can figure it out, he can prove to be a nice starter.
Rockets - Tyus Jones gets slotted here a lot but I do think it's a mistake for Morey to force a PG here. There are athleticism questions abound with Jones highlighted by his inability to finish at the rim and poor rebounding and defensive numbers. Payne and Wright provide much better alternatives who are more ready to contribute. Portis also provides a good fit here.
19. Rakeem Christmas - If he can hold on to all the gains he's made his senior year and translate that over he could prove to be solid. That is a big if however but he is a solid choice around here for some team.
Wizards - A team full of aging veterans in the frontcourt. Lots of options at this point and all the PF's in this group make some sense with Ochefu obviously preferred.
20. Richaun Holmes - Came onto my radar late but a lot to like in his stat profile. Another undersized guy but he measures well with great defensive stats. He should be a contributor on some level.
Raptors - RHJ makes a lot of sense here given he fits the helter skelter defense that Casey likes.
Sleepers/Non-Sleepers
Some of the players in this group are getting some attention and some are not. Most have level of competition concerns but have pretty stellar stat profiles to make up for it. There are others that are getting more attention than they probably should deserve. The upsides here are not all that great, else they wouldn't be rated here but you could see a lot of these guys make a rotation and make a career for themselves.
21. RJ Hunter - Gunner who took a slight step back in his junior year due to a long shooting slump. His freshman/soph years make him look like a good prospect. He will light it up from deep and might be able to hang in the league defensively which separates him from guys like Doug McDermott. I like him to be a solid starter or a spark plug off the bench which would normally rate him higher but he did only shoot 30% from 3 this year.
Mavericks - They could go in a lot of directions but PG is the obvious need. This is another slot where Jones is being talked up but will probably not end well.
22. Kristaps Porzingis - He is obviously not a sleeper but with saner heads, this is about where he should be slotted. Low rebounding numbers and iffy ballhandling numbers even in the Euroleague and even at 19 do not portend to great things. He is a tweener and being rail thin without the necessary ball skills is a bad combination. Kirilenko is talked as a comp but it's not prudent here. He was a much better slasher and ball handler at his age. Porzingis will need to grab a lot more boards to fulfill the potential people thinks he has or else he will just be an OK stretch 4. The upside here isn't all that great.
Bulls - Could go either PG or SF here and no telling where they go if/when Thibodeau makes his exit. I like Hunter in this spot for them.
23. Derrick Marks - A true sleeper. An undersized senior SG hidden in the confines of Boise St. He has done nothing but produce every year but this year he stepped up his inside scoring efficiency and added a 3p game that's not all spot up. He is undersized but bench player types have much more leeway size wise if they can show the ability to score. His secondary skills are ok enough where you can see him catching on and having a role somewhere. Whether he gets enough attention is a different question.
Blazers - A scary time for the Blazers with Aldridge, Lopez and Matthews all iffy propositions to come back. SG is going to be a need for them either way and this is another spot where Hunter makes sense.
24. TJ McConnnell - Another guy who is not getting the attention he deserves. If you want a pg who can shoot and make solid decisions late in the first round, he is the pg to grab and not Jones. He comes with solid defense as well. What dings him a bit is his age due to the transfer but he's been amazingly consistent throughout his college career. What you see is what you get and the question is, does any of it translate? Stellar steals rate and shooting efficiency say yes.
Cavaliers - Probably going to need to replace Kevin Love's production somehow in the frontcourt. All the undersized PF's are decent options here. No matter who they pick they will struggle to crack the rotation and the approval of King James. Not a desirable spot for a draftee. Upshaw might be given a look here.
25.Robert Upshaw - There is no confidence in this rating. He has a lot of things going against him: missing significant time for any reason is a major red flag whether it's by injury or disciplinary action. Transferring schools also lowers any prospects chances of succeeding as you lose a year of development during a very important time. The only success that comes to mind is Bison Dele or Brian Williams as he was referred to in college. Upshaw only played a half season's worth of games but he absolutely destroyed the competition before the suspension. If you ignore the character questions and judge him based on his 19 games this season, he'd be rated right after Okafor. He offers a lot of upside but many will wonder if this is another Larry Sanders situation. He becomes a very attractive gamble for the successful teams at the tail end of the first round.
Grizzlies - They are going to sweat out Gasol's free agency but should be a safe bet for him to return. This is another team that could gamble on Upshaw in this range but might go after safer options since they do have needs for perimeter shooting. Booker is not a great option for them but RJ Hunter might make sense.
26. Jerian Grant - After much back and forth, the rebounding and poor defensive numbers are a little too much to ignore and think this is a good spot for him. I think he can survive in the league based on his ability to score and create with efficiency. Should be a steady combo guard for someone.
Spurs - Yet another contender with big offseason questions. Usually I would say they would go with the best international prospect left but they could have quite a few holes to fill. This is a deepish draft so I think they try to make a selection and hopefully someone of decent value falls. Wood or Wright seem like good candidates if you believe the mocks.
27. Seth Tuttle Like Marks, has produced at a high level in relative obscurity. The numbers look even better once you adjust for UNI's slow pace. The size and athleticism questions are warranted however. He has a lot of ball skills: passing, shifty post moves and shooting ability to cause headaches for defenses which should either make him something of a poor man's Luis Scola or Josh McRoberts. He's not exactly a sexy pick but guy's who are clever with the ball and can shoot while having a modicum of athleticism are usually underrated.
Lakers - Assuming they go big with their first pick, they'll have a number of interesting guards to choose from. I see them going with Jerian Grant as it looks like Jim Buss likes big college names.
28.Chris McCullough - Knee injury doesn't help things but he showed he had athleticism to hang on the next level. The offense does not hang however. Any team picking him will have a long development ahead of them with McCullough but the reward will be pretty good with any team willing to take the plunge. It's not a bad bet for offense to develop.
Celtics - Another team with Upshaw probably on it's radar as Ainge has shown he isn't afraid to take risks. He also likes athletic types so McCullough could be an option here also.
29. Kevon Looney - He is curiously rated a lot higher than he probably should be. He has youth, he has decent size and he has what many refer to as a set of tools. That's about as good as you can say about him as he doesn't show great defensive or offensive production at all. Frankly he is probably a bust but he's young, he has range on his shot to 3p land, he has decent ballhandling numbers and he hits the boards. There's enough here where if you squint hard enough you'll see the upside that everyone is talking about. In the lottery, he is a mistake. Towards the end of the first round it starts making sense.
Nets - At least they have a pick. They have needs everywhere except maybe at C. They would do well to hope and pray a decent prospect falls to them. Given their dearth of picks and an aging roster, they should probably gamble on someone like Zeke Woodley who is an interesting prospect.
30. Vince Hunter - He doesn't have much of an offensive game but it seems that he produced pretty well. He has the makings of an undersized PF playing SF in the mold of Derrick Williams. He has a slim chance to succeed but other players in this range have that same problem.
Warriors - They don't need anything. What they probably do need is cap space so I bet they try pretty hard to deal out of the first round especially when there's tremendous value lurking in the second round. A backup pg or sg is probably in the mix here with a lot of potential names that could come up.
If you've made it this far, thanks and I hope you got something out of this.
Rotation Guys
This is the part of the draft when things start taking a bit of a dive and have multiple and more serious questions start popping up for each prospect. It's probable though that at least a few guys out of these remaining groups will have long lasting careers though as they do enough things well to have a puncher's chance at success.
16. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson - He's gone in and out of my board multiple times. When the draft was stronger he didn't project as well but given the folks who chose not to declare a guy like RHJ becomes more appealing if that makes sense. He's pretty much a shoe-in for a rotation spot somewhere given his wide skillset although he might be a journeyman type depending on how fast his offense progresses. The offense does have a lot of work to do but he has enough ball skills where he's not a complete zero.
Celtics - They need a big man and this is the part of the draft where someone attractive could conceivably fall to them. Wood would seem like a good gamble and Jefferson would seem like a solid safe choice. Ainge does have a tendency to go completely off the board so there's no telling who they like.
Questionable Bigs
This group has some potential but have size questions that limit their upside. They all have a long climb to be regular contributors but have enough to like to say that someone might have some impact.
17. Montrezl Harrell - He hasn't had much growth in his college career but he has demonstrated that he is pretty athletic and played at a high level. He has developed a semblance of a mid range game and that will be key to how much potential he will have.
Bucks - This is the part of the draft where Delon probably makes the most sense taking consensus rankings into account. MCW is a pet project for Kidd but Delon should be able to provide a nice Plan B(but really should be Plan A) for them.
18. Jordan Mickey - The most upside in the group but also has the biggest offensive and size questions. He has the necessary explosion and quicks to hang in the league but does he have the strength to bang regularly? He will struggle on offense but if he can figure it out, he can prove to be a nice starter.
Rockets - Tyus Jones gets slotted here a lot but I do think it's a mistake for Morey to force a PG here. There are athleticism questions abound with Jones highlighted by his inability to finish at the rim and poor rebounding and defensive numbers. Payne and Wright provide much better alternatives who are more ready to contribute. Portis also provides a good fit here.
19. Rakeem Christmas - If he can hold on to all the gains he's made his senior year and translate that over he could prove to be solid. That is a big if however but he is a solid choice around here for some team.
Wizards - A team full of aging veterans in the frontcourt. Lots of options at this point and all the PF's in this group make some sense with Ochefu obviously preferred.
20. Richaun Holmes - Came onto my radar late but a lot to like in his stat profile. Another undersized guy but he measures well with great defensive stats. He should be a contributor on some level.
Raptors - RHJ makes a lot of sense here given he fits the helter skelter defense that Casey likes.
Sleepers/Non-Sleepers
Some of the players in this group are getting some attention and some are not. Most have level of competition concerns but have pretty stellar stat profiles to make up for it. There are others that are getting more attention than they probably should deserve. The upsides here are not all that great, else they wouldn't be rated here but you could see a lot of these guys make a rotation and make a career for themselves.
21. RJ Hunter - Gunner who took a slight step back in his junior year due to a long shooting slump. His freshman/soph years make him look like a good prospect. He will light it up from deep and might be able to hang in the league defensively which separates him from guys like Doug McDermott. I like him to be a solid starter or a spark plug off the bench which would normally rate him higher but he did only shoot 30% from 3 this year.
Mavericks - They could go in a lot of directions but PG is the obvious need. This is another slot where Jones is being talked up but will probably not end well.
22. Kristaps Porzingis - He is obviously not a sleeper but with saner heads, this is about where he should be slotted. Low rebounding numbers and iffy ballhandling numbers even in the Euroleague and even at 19 do not portend to great things. He is a tweener and being rail thin without the necessary ball skills is a bad combination. Kirilenko is talked as a comp but it's not prudent here. He was a much better slasher and ball handler at his age. Porzingis will need to grab a lot more boards to fulfill the potential people thinks he has or else he will just be an OK stretch 4. The upside here isn't all that great.
Bulls - Could go either PG or SF here and no telling where they go if/when Thibodeau makes his exit. I like Hunter in this spot for them.
23. Derrick Marks - A true sleeper. An undersized senior SG hidden in the confines of Boise St. He has done nothing but produce every year but this year he stepped up his inside scoring efficiency and added a 3p game that's not all spot up. He is undersized but bench player types have much more leeway size wise if they can show the ability to score. His secondary skills are ok enough where you can see him catching on and having a role somewhere. Whether he gets enough attention is a different question.
Blazers - A scary time for the Blazers with Aldridge, Lopez and Matthews all iffy propositions to come back. SG is going to be a need for them either way and this is another spot where Hunter makes sense.
24. TJ McConnnell - Another guy who is not getting the attention he deserves. If you want a pg who can shoot and make solid decisions late in the first round, he is the pg to grab and not Jones. He comes with solid defense as well. What dings him a bit is his age due to the transfer but he's been amazingly consistent throughout his college career. What you see is what you get and the question is, does any of it translate? Stellar steals rate and shooting efficiency say yes.
Cavaliers - Probably going to need to replace Kevin Love's production somehow in the frontcourt. All the undersized PF's are decent options here. No matter who they pick they will struggle to crack the rotation and the approval of King James. Not a desirable spot for a draftee. Upshaw might be given a look here.
25.Robert Upshaw - There is no confidence in this rating. He has a lot of things going against him: missing significant time for any reason is a major red flag whether it's by injury or disciplinary action. Transferring schools also lowers any prospects chances of succeeding as you lose a year of development during a very important time. The only success that comes to mind is Bison Dele or Brian Williams as he was referred to in college. Upshaw only played a half season's worth of games but he absolutely destroyed the competition before the suspension. If you ignore the character questions and judge him based on his 19 games this season, he'd be rated right after Okafor. He offers a lot of upside but many will wonder if this is another Larry Sanders situation. He becomes a very attractive gamble for the successful teams at the tail end of the first round.
Grizzlies - They are going to sweat out Gasol's free agency but should be a safe bet for him to return. This is another team that could gamble on Upshaw in this range but might go after safer options since they do have needs for perimeter shooting. Booker is not a great option for them but RJ Hunter might make sense.
26. Jerian Grant - After much back and forth, the rebounding and poor defensive numbers are a little too much to ignore and think this is a good spot for him. I think he can survive in the league based on his ability to score and create with efficiency. Should be a steady combo guard for someone.
Spurs - Yet another contender with big offseason questions. Usually I would say they would go with the best international prospect left but they could have quite a few holes to fill. This is a deepish draft so I think they try to make a selection and hopefully someone of decent value falls. Wood or Wright seem like good candidates if you believe the mocks.
27. Seth Tuttle Like Marks, has produced at a high level in relative obscurity. The numbers look even better once you adjust for UNI's slow pace. The size and athleticism questions are warranted however. He has a lot of ball skills: passing, shifty post moves and shooting ability to cause headaches for defenses which should either make him something of a poor man's Luis Scola or Josh McRoberts. He's not exactly a sexy pick but guy's who are clever with the ball and can shoot while having a modicum of athleticism are usually underrated.
Lakers - Assuming they go big with their first pick, they'll have a number of interesting guards to choose from. I see them going with Jerian Grant as it looks like Jim Buss likes big college names.
28.Chris McCullough - Knee injury doesn't help things but he showed he had athleticism to hang on the next level. The offense does not hang however. Any team picking him will have a long development ahead of them with McCullough but the reward will be pretty good with any team willing to take the plunge. It's not a bad bet for offense to develop.
Celtics - Another team with Upshaw probably on it's radar as Ainge has shown he isn't afraid to take risks. He also likes athletic types so McCullough could be an option here also.
29. Kevon Looney - He is curiously rated a lot higher than he probably should be. He has youth, he has decent size and he has what many refer to as a set of tools. That's about as good as you can say about him as he doesn't show great defensive or offensive production at all. Frankly he is probably a bust but he's young, he has range on his shot to 3p land, he has decent ballhandling numbers and he hits the boards. There's enough here where if you squint hard enough you'll see the upside that everyone is talking about. In the lottery, he is a mistake. Towards the end of the first round it starts making sense.
Nets - At least they have a pick. They have needs everywhere except maybe at C. They would do well to hope and pray a decent prospect falls to them. Given their dearth of picks and an aging roster, they should probably gamble on someone like Zeke Woodley who is an interesting prospect.
30. Vince Hunter - He doesn't have much of an offensive game but it seems that he produced pretty well. He has the makings of an undersized PF playing SF in the mold of Derrick Williams. He has a slim chance to succeed but other players in this range have that same problem.
Warriors - They don't need anything. What they probably do need is cap space so I bet they try pretty hard to deal out of the first round especially when there's tremendous value lurking in the second round. A backup pg or sg is probably in the mix here with a lot of potential names that could come up.
If you've made it this far, thanks and I hope you got something out of this.
Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
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djphan
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Re: dj's top 25 of 2015
Final Top 30
Nothing much changed although I wanted to make a few tweaks to the board after having some time to look at it...
1. Karl-Anthony Towns
2. D'Angelo Russell
3. Justise Winslow
4. Jahlil Okafor
5. Willie Cauley-Stein
6. Emmanuel Mudiay - Originally had Mudiay and Wright side by side earlier in the season with Delon a small edge. I think the thin slice from China does hurt Mudiay's case a tad. Stein has an edge with a higher floor.
7. Delon Wright
8. Myles Turner
9. Bobby Portis
10. Christian Wood
11. Frank Kaminsky
12. Kelly Oubre
13. Stanley Johnson
14. Cameron Payne
15. Cliff Alexander - Think this is a better spot. He did show decent skills in the little games that we saw but the unknowns should put him squarely behind the guys who actually played at a high level but ahead of the lower upside guys.
16. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
17. Montrezl Harrell
18. Jordan Mickey
19. Kevon Looney - After looking at his measurements, he does pose as a good upside risk when you compare him head-to-head with Christmas who did even less as a freshman.
20. Rakeem Christmas
21. Richaun Holmes
22. RJ hunter
23. Kristaps Porzingis
24. Derrick Marks
25. TJ McConnell
26. Robert Upshaw
27. Jerian Grant
28. Chris McCullough
29. Seth Tuttle
30. Vince Hunter
Honorable mentions: Terry Rozier and Darrun Hilliard
Notable omissions:
Trey Lyles - One of my least favorite prospects. He was playing out of position at Kentucky but couldn't distinguish himself on the defensive end or on the boards which makes him dangerous for anyone picking him. The offense seems ok but there is nothing to suggest that he can hang at the next level.
Devin Booker - Another Wildcat and he has sort of the same issues as Lyles. He can shoot but that's about it. He will most likely fail but might be ok as a 3pt specialist at best.
Tyus Jones - Being a small guard doesn't hurt him much but not being able to score with efficiency in the paint along with low athleticism scores portends bad news for him at the next level. Shane Larkin is a good comp.
Mario Hezonja - I was going back and forth with him and Vince Hunter. He might be 31 or 32 on this list if it went longer but the only thing that stands out is that he can score with good efficiency at low usage. He'll probably be better than Booker but he'll also live behind the arc and depending on how well he shoots can stick in the league for a little while. The other skills, especially a microscopic FTr, point to a guy who probably won't be good with big minutes.
Nothing much changed although I wanted to make a few tweaks to the board after having some time to look at it...
1. Karl-Anthony Towns
2. D'Angelo Russell
3. Justise Winslow
4. Jahlil Okafor
5. Willie Cauley-Stein
6. Emmanuel Mudiay - Originally had Mudiay and Wright side by side earlier in the season with Delon a small edge. I think the thin slice from China does hurt Mudiay's case a tad. Stein has an edge with a higher floor.
7. Delon Wright
8. Myles Turner
9. Bobby Portis
10. Christian Wood
11. Frank Kaminsky
12. Kelly Oubre
13. Stanley Johnson
14. Cameron Payne
15. Cliff Alexander - Think this is a better spot. He did show decent skills in the little games that we saw but the unknowns should put him squarely behind the guys who actually played at a high level but ahead of the lower upside guys.
16. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
17. Montrezl Harrell
18. Jordan Mickey
19. Kevon Looney - After looking at his measurements, he does pose as a good upside risk when you compare him head-to-head with Christmas who did even less as a freshman.
20. Rakeem Christmas
21. Richaun Holmes
22. RJ hunter
23. Kristaps Porzingis
24. Derrick Marks
25. TJ McConnell
26. Robert Upshaw
27. Jerian Grant
28. Chris McCullough
29. Seth Tuttle
30. Vince Hunter
Honorable mentions: Terry Rozier and Darrun Hilliard
Notable omissions:
Trey Lyles - One of my least favorite prospects. He was playing out of position at Kentucky but couldn't distinguish himself on the defensive end or on the boards which makes him dangerous for anyone picking him. The offense seems ok but there is nothing to suggest that he can hang at the next level.
Devin Booker - Another Wildcat and he has sort of the same issues as Lyles. He can shoot but that's about it. He will most likely fail but might be ok as a 3pt specialist at best.
Tyus Jones - Being a small guard doesn't hurt him much but not being able to score with efficiency in the paint along with low athleticism scores portends bad news for him at the next level. Shane Larkin is a good comp.
Mario Hezonja - I was going back and forth with him and Vince Hunter. He might be 31 or 32 on this list if it went longer but the only thing that stands out is that he can score with good efficiency at low usage. He'll probably be better than Booker but he'll also live behind the arc and depending on how well he shoots can stick in the league for a little while. The other skills, especially a microscopic FTr, point to a guy who probably won't be good with big minutes.