Isaiah Thomas's fantasy value

soccer8098 · Post #1 » by **soccer8098** » Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:15 am

Did a mock draft on espn and noticed Thomas was rated 19th overall in the pre rankings... Is this just because of last years production or are they seeing something im not? assuming Bledsoe doesnt get traded early in the season wont Thomas be coming off the bench? If so where would you rate him? I see him more as 7th-8th round talent if Dragic and Beldsoe are healthy.

soccer8098 · Post #2 » by **soccer8098** » Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:31 am

as of now the 3 of them are ranked 19th-Thomas 20th- Dragic and 22nd- Bledsoe. i really wanted to take Dragic but im starting to think its a risk taking any of them that early

Post #3 » by **Yuri Vaultin** » Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:14 pm

Dragic will be gold again IMO. Thomas will be relegated to a 6th man role so I see a drop off across the board for him.

Post #4 » by **bwgood77** » Tue Sep 23, 2014 2:52 pm

It's risky taking these guys (other than maybe Dragic) until we see how the Bledsoe situation plays out. Personally I think he will sign in Phx for a 4 year deal in about a week, but many disagree with me on that. But even if he takes the QO, he will likely play hard for his next contract.

Thomas shouldn't be ranked that high but he should be solid and may have better shooting percentages and stuff playing against more bench units. He will likely still get about 25 minutes regardless.

soccer8098 · Post #5 » by **soccer8098** » Tue Sep 23, 2014 3:27 pm

These 3 guys and Kevin Love are giving me the most trouble

Post #6 » by **bwgood77** » Tue Sep 23, 2014 7:41 pm

soccer8098 wrote:These 3 guys and Kevin Love are giving me the most trouble

I think Love will be a monster. You can't find a better complementary player than LeBron. He will get more wide open 3s because he can't really be double teamed like last year. When LeBron is taking 3s, he will be good with offensive boards, and if Varejao is injured as usual, he will probably be even a better rebounder than usual because Pekovic won't be stealing as many (LeBron will get more than the typical PF, but probably not more than Pek). I imagine they will also run small ball quite a bit with Love at the 5 and James and Marion at the forward spots. They are both good rebounders but not nearly as much as Love.

LeBron impacted Wade and Bosh so much initially because neither could hit 3s and LeBron plays best when surrounded by floor spreaders. Bosh finally evolved into a 3 pt threat. Love is also a very good passer and if he can get 4+ assists with Rubio, Martin, Brewer and Pek, he will likely get more with Irving, LeBron and company.

F1uxCapacit0r · Post #7 » by **F1uxCapacit0r** » Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:39 pm

soccer8098 wrote:These 3 guys and Kevin Love are giving me the most trouble

Unless its a keeper league who cares if kevin Love will be a beast.

Clevland has a 4-3-2 game schedule during playoffs.. essentially in the final 2 weeks (most important part of season) they play the fewest games.

I am avoiding Clevland players for that very reason.

Its also part of the reason I was more open to rolling the dice on Deron Williams again as they have a 4-4-4 playoff sched

Post #8 » by **TASTIC** » Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:34 pm

ESPN are a complete joke - look at the majority of last year's stats vs projected stats and 90% are within 1% of each other across the board, they don't even give a crap.

I think Thomas will still hold top 50 value on that Suns team - like I'd take him over a lot of other starting options like Collison, GHill, Burke, Payton etc.

I think I'd lump him into that 45-60 range of PGs like Teague, Kemba, Deron, Rose, MCW etc. Some have more upside than others but others have injury risks, I guess with Thomas he'd held value regardless whether he's starting or off the bench.

His career stats are basically what I'm looking for him to do: 15.3pts, 2.5reb, 4.8asst, 1.0stl, 45%fg 86%ft and 1.5x 3s.

He has immense value in FTM/FTA cos he buries his free throws - hard to find that coupled with 4-5asst late.

soccer8098 · Post #9 » by **soccer8098** » Wed Sep 24, 2014 1:35 pm

Is there any website that gives quality projections? It does seem that espn just closed their eyes and threw a dart at the board when they put them together.

Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Post #10 » by **Yuri Vaultin** » Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:19 pm

With the signing of Bledsoe, I'm pretty confident in saying that Thomas has just taken a HUGE fantasy hit. He'll be good for a sixth man, but anyone drafting him with expectations close to last season will be in for disappointment.

witnessraps · Post #11 » by **witnessraps** » Fri Sep 26, 2014 2:46 am

F1uxCapacit0r wrote:
soccer8098 wrote:These 3 guys and Kevin Love are giving me the most trouble

Unless its a keeper league who cares if kevin Love will be a beast.

Clevland has a 4-3-2 game schedule during playoffs.. essentially in the final 2 weeks (most important part of season) they play the fewest games.

I am avoiding Clevland players for that very reason.

Its also part of the reason I was more open to rolling the dice on Deron Williams again as they have a 4-4-4 playoff sched

do you have a full list or would you be able to reference something? Would be very helpful..

Bank Shot · Post #12 » by **Bank Shot** » Fri Sep 26, 2014 12:58 pm

I'd take Isaiah around 90-100. For reference he was ranked 97th in 2012-2013 while playing 27 MPG. He's behind better players with higher usage this year so it will be interesting to see how his minutes shake out. Top 50 is still too high. The guy is a very good per minute though who isn't just fantasy relevant because of minutes (cough Chandler Parsons). Over the last two years Isaiah has put up top 5 value per 36. If he can get 24-26 minutes, he won't be a stud like last year but he'll be effective.

It kills me to say this because Dragic is my favourite fantasy player but I'm staying away this year. When Bledsoe was on the floor he was more of a top-60 guy than top-30 guy. He's too pricey this year.

Bank Shot · Post #13 » by **Bank Shot** » Fri Sep 26, 2014 1:00 pm

soccer8098 wrote:Is there any website that gives quality projections? It does seem that espn just closed their eyes and threw a dart at the board when they put them together.

Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

You have to pay for it but basketball monster is 100% worth it. It puts the big sites to shame.

Also, Yahoo has Terrace Jones ranked 147th. WTF.

soccer8098 · Post #14 » by **soccer8098** » Fri Sep 26, 2014 2:29 pm

Bank Shot wrote:I'd take Isaiah around 90-100. For reference he was ranked 97th in 2012-2013 while playing 27 MPG. He's behind better players with higher usage this year so it will be interesting to see how his minutes shake out. Top 50 is still too high. The guy is a very good per minute though who isn't just fantasy relevant because of minutes (cough Chandler Parsons). Over the last two years Isaiah has put up top 5 value per 36. If he can get 24-26 minutes, he won't be a stud like last year but he'll be effective.

It kills me to say this because Dragic is my favourite fantasy player but I'm staying away this year. When Bledsoe was on the floor he was more of a top-60 guy than top-30 guy. He's too pricey this year.

Do you also think Kyrie is ranked too high? i feel like taking him in the 2nd round is too big of a risk considering his assists and points will probably drop. what PGS would you take in the 2nd or 3rd rounds? right now im thinking Lowry.

F1uxCapacit0r · Post #15 » by **F1uxCapacit0r** » Fri Sep 26, 2014 8:05 pm

witnessraps wrote:
F1uxCapacit0r wrote:
soccer8098 wrote:These 3 guys and Kevin Love are giving me the most trouble

Unless its a keeper league who cares if kevin Love will be a beast.

Clevland has a 4-3-2 game schedule during playoffs.. essentially in the final 2 weeks (most important part of season) they play the fewest games.

I am avoiding Clevland players for that very reason.

Its also part of the reason I was more open to rolling the dice on Deron Williams again as they have a 4-4-4 playoff sched

do you have a full list or would you be able to reference something? Would be very helpful..

I usually use basketball monster. You can also just google playoff fantasy grid or schedule and it will give alternatives.

https://basketballmonster.com/ScheduleGrid.aspx

Bank Shot · Post #16 » by **Bank Shot** » Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:15 pm

soccer8098 wrote:
Bank Shot wrote:I'd take Isaiah around 90-100. For reference he was ranked 97th in 2012-2013 while playing 27 MPG. He's behind better players with higher usage this year so it will be interesting to see how his minutes shake out. Top 50 is still too high. The guy is a very good per minute though who isn't just fantasy relevant because of minutes (cough Chandler Parsons). Over the last two years Isaiah has put up top 5 value per 36. If he can get 24-26 minutes, he won't be a stud like last year but he'll be effective.

It kills me to say this because Dragic is my favourite fantasy player but I'm staying away this year. When Bledsoe was on the floor he was more of a top-60 guy than top-30 guy. He's too pricey this year.

Do you also think Kyrie is ranked too high? i feel like taking him in the 2nd round is too big of a risk considering his assists and points will probably drop. what PGS would you take in the 2nd or 3rd rounds? right now im thinking Lowry.

I'm fine with late second for Kyrie although he wouldn't be my first target. Too many nice bigs available in the second to gamble on Kyrie, especially since the upside isn't there anymore with LeBron in town.

I'd rank the likely third round PGs like this:

1) Lowry - Top-15 upside

2) Conley - Coming off a down year but he's just about the safest PG out there and has top-25 upside.

3) Lillard - Was only barely a top-50 guy over the last three months of the season. The lack of steals hold him back. He's being overdrafted in the second. He won't be on any of my teams.
4) Lawson - I don't like Shaw's system but Ty's their main guy and Gallo coming back should help.
5) Bledsoe - The Isaiah signing is annoying but he's a real nice per minute player. If the blocks come back he's got huge upside.
6) Dragic - He was only a top-50 to 60 guy when Bledsoe was on the court. He's my favourite player but I don't see him returning value unless Bledsoe goes down.

7) Rose - Do not want. I don't trust him at all and he doesn't have first-round upside. I see him more as a top-35 even guy even if healthy.

Kabookalu · Post #17 » by **Kabookalu** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 9:07 am

F1uxCapacit0r wrote:
witnessraps wrote:
F1uxCapacit0r wrote:
Unless its a keeper league who cares if kevin Love will be a beast.

Clevland has a 4-3-2 game schedule during playoffs.. essentially in the final 2 weeks (most important part of season) they play the fewest games.

I am avoiding Clevland players for that very reason.

Its also part of the reason I was more open to rolling the dice on Deron Williams again as they have a 4-4-4 playoff sched

do you have a full list or would you be able to reference something? Would be very helpful..

I usually use basketball monster. You can also just google playoff fantasy grid or schedule and it will give alternatives.

https://basketballmonster.com/ScheduleGrid.aspx

Thanks for that, this is really helpful. This is putting a lot of weight on who I should be drafting. Was definitely considering Deron Williams even before seeing this.

Post #18 » by **TASTIC** » Wed Oct 1, 2014 12:20 pm

soccer8098 wrote:Is there any website that gives quality projections? It does seem that espn just closed their eyes and threw a dart at the board when they put them together.

Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

I helped put out a draft guide for the Fantasy Hoops Insider podcast - only $10...nearly 80 pages long and unlike the bigger sites we actually put a LOT of effort in, simply because we didn't have the big name/recognition of the main ones.

Here's a snapshot of projections (200+ players including the rookies, unlike ESPN)

(might need to paste this into a new window, too wide for the page)

http://www.thefantasyhoopsinsider.com/p ... draft-kit/