Wolves Actively Looking For Ricky Rubio Trade

[foreigngrammar]

It's about goddam time! I like Brandon. Knights game.. maybe even Bledsoe with the bad knees greater than Rubio. Dragic is available... probably pass there. I am firm believer the wolves success begins the day Rubio exits the organization

With Knight running the show? What are youi smoking?

[fluent]

tanking purposes obviously.

Yeah dude answered his own question. Thibs has probably come to realize that even if wolves go on a roll and slide into the playoffs - they will just get it handed to them by the warriors or the spurs. There better off getting another high pick especially if reports are true that the 2017 draft has similar talent to the 2012 draft class. Wolves will be a superpower soon but they need more talent in their small market and lock down their anchors in Towns and Wiggins to extensions asap. I could see a 3 team trade scenario working out where rubio and some other assets land in philly while okafor/noel go to a third team and the wolves also pick up something of value.

I used to be 100% on board with the tank/rebuild strategy, but it seems like as more and more teams are willing to tank that the strategy is losing its effectiveness. The type of talents that come along in the draft who can change a franchise are rare as is, but increasingly the franchise changing talents are coming outside of the top 3 picks and becoming great because of coaching and development (Ex: Kawhi/Curry).

In fact if you break the numbers down, tanking is a really bad way to build statistically.

To illustrate this point let's take the top 3 picks from 2003-2012 Drafts and see how many of them brought their team to a championship level (which I define as their team at least once reaching the finals). Stick with me on this one. This is far enough back that it captures a good sample size of players without diluting it with players under 4 years of experience.

2003: LeBron/Darko/Carmelo (3 Trips)
2004: Dwight/Emeka/B.Gordon (1 Trip)
2005: Bogut/M.Williams/D.Williams (0 Trips)
2006: Bargnani/LaMarcus/Adam Porn Stache Morrison (0 Trips)
2007: Oden/Durant/Horford (1 Trip)
2008: Rose/Beasley/Mayo (0 Trips)
2009: B.Griffin/Thabeet/Harden (0 Trips)
2010: Wall/Evan Turner/Favors (0 Trips)
2011: Irving/Derrick Williams/Kanter (2 Trips)
2012: A.Davis/MKG/Beal (0 Trips)

In short, if you were a tanking team there were 30 possible top 3 picks over the course of 10 years. LeBron has of course dominated this list by bringing 3 finals trips to the Cavs. His teammate Irving was on board for 2 of them, whether you count that is up for debate. Then outside of those two only Durant and Dwight brought their teams to the championships season.

If you decided to tank as a team any season between '03 and '12 in order to get a top 3 pick then there was a 10-13% chance that you would get a player that would take you to the championship at least once. But remember, there's only a 64.3% chance that the worst team would get in the top 3. So you're looking at a 6.5-8.4% chance of a full on tank getting your team the super star player needed to get to the championship. That's assuming your team has the worst record, if your team wins a few games by accident that 6.5-8.4% chance falls under 3%.

In short, getting an NBA championship is hard and tanking is not always the best way to go. It might actually be better to develop the elusive "winning culture" and pray to the free agency gods.

Source for Odds: http://www.tankathon.com

Cool, but what are the odds of getting to the Finals without a Top 3 pick? If the percentage is even lower then tanking would still be a more effective strategy.

Also, what are the odds that teams in the middle-to-lower-but-not-Top-3-picking-bad make the Finals? Something to think about as well.

Finally, in every draft you listed there is at least 1 excellent/top tier player. They may not single-handedly turn the team into a championship contender, but they are a great first building block to a franchise.

Tanking is not a sure bet, but neither is any other strategy. You have to get a top 2, top 3 pick, but also get lucky. That's why the term NBA Lottery makes sense. And even after that you have to build a team around that player, so...yeah.

[Sam195]

Yeah dude answered his own question. Thibs has probably come to realize that even if wolves go on a roll and slide into the playoffs - they will just get it handed to them by the warriors or the spurs. There better off getting another high pick especially if reports are true that the 2017 draft has similar talent to the 2012 draft class. Wolves will be a superpower soon but they need more talent in their small market and lock down their anchors in Towns and Wiggins to extensions asap. I could see a 3 team trade scenario working out where rubio and some other assets land in philly while okafor/noel go to a third team and the wolves also pick up something of value.

I used to be 100% on board with the tank/rebuild strategy, but it seems like as more and more teams are willing to tank that the strategy is losing its effectiveness. The type of talents that come along in the draft who can change a franchise are rare as is, but increasingly the franchise changing talents are coming outside of the top 3 picks and becoming great because of coaching and development (Ex: Kawhi/Curry).

In fact if you break the numbers down, tanking is a really bad way to build statistically.

To illustrate this point let's take the top 3 picks from 2003-2012 Drafts and see how many of them brought their team to a championship level (which I define as their team at least once reaching the finals). Stick with me on this one. This is far enough back that it captures a good sample size of players without diluting it with players under 4 years of experience.

2003: LeBron/Darko/Carmelo (3 Trips)
2004: Dwight/Emeka/B.Gordon (1 Trip)
2005: Bogut/M.Williams/D.Williams (0 Trips)
2006: Bargnani/LaMarcus/Adam Porn Stache Morrison (0 Trips)
2007: Oden/Durant/Horford (1 Trip)
2008: Rose/Beasley/Mayo (0 Trips)
2009: B.Griffin/Thabeet/Harden (0 Trips)
2010: Wall/Evan Turner/Favors (0 Trips)
2011: Irving/Derrick Williams/Kanter (2 Trips)
2012: A.Davis/MKG/Beal (0 Trips)

In short, if you were a tanking team there were 30 possible top 3 picks over the course of 10 years. LeBron has of course dominated this list by bringing 3 finals trips to the Cavs. His teammate Irving was on board for 2 of them, whether you count that is up for debate. Then outside of those two only Durant and Dwight brought their teams to the championships season.

If you decided to tank as a team any season between '03 and '12 in order to get a top 3 pick then there was a 10-13% chance that you would get a player that would take you to the championship at least once. But remember, there's only a 64.3% chance that the worst team would get in the top 3. So you're looking at a 6.5-8.4% chance of a full on tank getting your team the super star player needed to get to the championship. That's assuming your team has the worst record, if your team wins a few games by accident that 6.5-8.4% chance falls under 3%.

In short, getting an NBA championship is hard and tanking is not always the best way to go. It might actually be better to develop the elusive "winning culture" and pray to the free agency gods.

Source for Odds: http://www.tankathon.com

Good analysis. Harden made it to finals with thunder.

It's more than just a team landing a high pick - a management and coaching structure has to be in place that fosters development and enhances the skill set of those high picks/blue chip prospects. The Spurs drafted Tim Duncan #1 in the 1997 nba draft after a massive tank job and never missed the playoffs since also won 5 titles. There is a strong case to be made that if Pistons had drafted Melo/Bosh with the 2nd Pick in the 2003 nba draft (they won a title in 2004) that they could have created a dynasty that rivals the likes of the bulls, lakers and heat. Larry Brown was the coach of the pistons and previously the sixers who got the best seasons out of another ball dominant offensive player in Allen Iverson - maybe he does the same with Melo except with the advantage of surrounding him with the veteran Pistons squad. Also you mentioned Kawhi and Curry were not high picks but they were actually top 5 prospects in the mock drafts leading up to their respective drafts but fell on draft night for various reasons. Grizzlies allegedly had Curry #2 on their draftboard after Thabeet. Kawhi supposedly had great workouts across the board infront of many teams which is why teams that didn't even own lottery picks at the time like the Spurs pushed hard to interview him and see if he could be fit for them. Would Damian Lillard be the superstar he is today if he been drafted one pick earlier to the dysfunctional Sacramento Queens. Or would Thomas Robinson who killed it in college be a perennial allstar instead of a drifter had his nba career not begun in Sacramento. Team's don't tank assuming that their high pick guarantees them a superstar, they do it so they don't get stuck in the nba's awful middle where your team gets eliminated in the first round of the playoffs or misses it entirely but your awarded a pick that is less likely to give you reasonable luck in drafting the next superstar. The majority of nba allstars have been top 10 picks and the majority of even higher picks became nba hall of famers. Since most nba players are not staying in college beyond 1 season - their talent is more scrutinized and the best prospects will always be selected with the top picks. Another note - Kawhi, Curry and Lillard all played more than one season in college which is contributing factor to their lower draft stock but also maybe a positive influence on why they developed faster when they joined the nba.

[Killboard]

This is the 84932714289734019 time that a report about Rubio trade is out, and they never gets done.

You know what dont make any sense? Rubio played 39 minutes last night, 21 points in 9 shots, 14 assist (4.6:1 A:TO) ratio vs Dunn 9 minutes.
Against Rubio, Mills and Parker combined for 6/18 from the floor scoring 13 points in 39 minutes – 4/11 from Tony Parker and 2/7 from Mills. Dunn played 9 minutes, Parker was 2/2 from the floor and 2/3 from the line, Patty Mills was 2/2 from 3 while Dunn was in.

Dunn is 22 and is very raw on offense. Expect him to be better than Rubio at some point in his career is a really long shot and neither of Wiggins, Lavine or Towns can create for anyone else in the meantime.

[isucb]

I think a trade to Denver for say Nurkic and Nelson for Rubio would be pretty decent for both teams. No clue if that matches up money wise but it would help the Nuggets currently with the playoff chase and would allow the T'wolves a chance to pick up a decent post prospect along with a guard that could help Dunn. Plus there is some great wings/guards that should be in the lottery so its kind of a win win for both teams in their own way.