Sweet Sixteen Day 2

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Sweet Sixteen Day 2 

Post#1 » by RealGM Articles » Sat Mar 28, 2015 5:49 am

#7 Michigan St. defeated #3 Oklahoma


For most of the last 10 years, Michigan St. has struggled to hold onto the ball. The next table shows Michigan St.’s offensive turnover ranking over the last 10 years:


















































Year



Turnover Rate Ranking



2015



77th



2014



107th



2013



226th



2012



147th



2011



179th



2010



221st



2009



198th



2008



157th



2007



301st



2006



129th



But turnovers haven’t been the problem in 2015. And that was why the start of the game against Oklahoma was so strange. Oklahoma opened the game by stealing the ball from Michigan St.’s Tum Tum Nairn. In seemingly no time at all, Oklahoma led 18-8. Michigan St. was really pressing at this point, and even with the double digit deficit, Michigan St. had two more costly turnovers. This was looking like the Michigan St. team of old, not the Michigan St. team of 2015. But suddenly things flipped. Michigan St. had just two turnovers for the rest of the game.


Meanwhile, I have never been a fan of Tum Tum Nairn this season. When he forced a bad two point jumper in the opening stretch, I personally gave him the quick-hook signal from my couch. NCAA tournament games are not won by taking questionable shots. And amazingly, Tom Izzo agreed. The sideline reporter said it was because Nairn was sick and because Oklahoma was sagging off Nairn and daring him to shoot. Bryn Forbes came in and didn’t play great. But he has at least had some hot games, and he keeps the defense honest and ensures the right floor spacing.


And with those two issues cleaned up, Michigan St. kept grinding away. They got some great dunks on offensive put-backs. They were smart in their three point shooting. When Oklahoma tried to draw a charge at half-court, and didn’t get the call, Michigan St. calmly went to the three point arc and drained the three. And by playing lock-down defense, Michigan St. finally built a lead in the final minutes.


Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield is a great shooter. But here is the thing about the NCAA tournament. Good defensive teams take away your teams’ strengths. Michigan St. did a fabulous job fighting under screens and switching and making sure that Hield never got an open look on the perimeter.


Hield’s only logical play was to drive and attack. And when he did that, it was effective. With the game tied at 39, Hield drove and drew the foul and made it 42-39. That felt like a huge momentum play at the time, and for a moment I thought that might be the play of the game. Even down by 5 in the final minute, when Hield drove, he found a teammate on the dish for a lay-up and foul.


Hield did eventually get one good three point look in the final stretch of the game, on an offensive rebound kick-out. That type of chaotic moment, when the defense is collapsed, is the perfect time to shoot a three. But Hield’s other three attempts down the stretch were all forced.


Michigan St. got punched in the mouth and responded. Oklahoma got punched in the mouth, and kept making the same mistake. And somehow, when a few free throws finally fell for Michigan St., the Spartans prevailed.


#4 Louisville defeated #8 NC State


Louisville was a team with four offensive scorers and no one else with any confidence that they could put the ball in the basket. One way to look at the end of the season is to say that after Chris Jones left the team, Louisville’s offense was permanently broken, and that the run in the NCAA tournament has been aided by a fortunate draw more than skill.


But another story might be emerging.  In four of the last seven games, Louisville’s offense has actually looked pretty good. And to the extent that Jones departure has given players like Quentin Snider and Anton Gill more playing time and a chance to gain more confidence, that improvement doesn’t have to be a mirage. Louisville’s roster is not made up of scrubs. There are plenty of Top 100 athletes and quality recruits who could break out at any time.


Gill’s big shots on Friday were quite a surprise, but Snider’s been steadily improving. His season long ORtg in only 93, but in four of the last five games, Snider has posted an ORtg over 100 and scored in double figures. And in the nine games Jones did not play, Snider has averaged 3 assists per game.


Of course it doesn’t hurt when the stars shine bright as well. Louisville’s Montrezl Harrell somehow logged 40 minutes, something almost unheard of for a big man. And Harrell even had quickness late in the game. He followed a screen, and drove from the three point arc all the way to the hoop for an easy two. That’s something you expect from a guard, not a forward. Not to be outdone, Louisville guard Terry Rozier did his best forward impression by grabbing 14 rebounds.


But as great as those two star players are, I think to defeat a disciplined team like Michigan St., Louisville will need more from those complimentary players. If Snider can someone find another 14 point game on a few less shots, that might just be enough for the Final Four.


As for NC State, they have nothing to hang their head about. This is a team with plenty of talented young players who should be even better next year. Caleb Martin’s dunk at the end of the game might not have meant much to the final outcome, but it was a reminder of the talent NC State has that the team hasn’t even been unable to unleash yet.


NC State might still be inconsistent. But then you remember it was not that long ago that Sidney Lowe was on the sideline and NC State was never winning big games while Dick Vitale kept screaming “help is on the way”. Under Mark Gottfried, NC State is recruiting and getting a fair share of big wins.


#1 Duke defeated #5 Utah


I have my concerns about Duke’s late game execution. I don’t care if you have a double digit lead. With over 7 minutes left in the game, you have to continue to run your offense. That is too early to just run clock against a good defensive team like Utah. If you only give yourself 15 seconds to score on Utah’s defense, you aren’t going to get enough quality looks.


And Jahlil Okafor missed the front end of a one-and-one with just under 2 minutes left in the game causing Mike Krzyzewski to send him to the bench. If Duke’s lead wasn’t so big, that could have been more costly.


But those criticisms are really minor compared to the plays Duke made. Utah played their kind of basketball game, a grind-it-out, physical defensive game, where there were no easy looks from the three point line. Utah switched defenses on Okafor, threw multiple 7 footers on him, double-teamed him and intercepted his cross-court passes when he tried to pass out of the double-team. Basically they made the All-American look average.


And yet Duke still rolled comfortably. Duke won easily because their defense really did reach another level. Utah had two huge droughts in the game. The one in the first half was almost certainly aided by the fact that Delon Wright had to go to the bench with three fouls. But Wright had his own misses in the second half, and he was not completely absent in Utah’s second big drought.


Teams don’t win six games in the NCAA tournament by shooting lights out every night. Teams don’t win six games in the NCAA tournament with their best player (Okafor) scoring well every night. Championship caliber teams have to win at least a game or two in another way. And Duke just did that. That’s a great sign if the team wants to go on an even deeper run.


Of course as I wrote that last paragraph, I find myself asking this: Are we sure Okafor is Duke’s best player? Justise Winslow is certainly stating his case.


#2 Gonzaga defeated #11 UCLA


Seriously, why do they play these games in these cavernous stadiums with no back-drop for shooters? Both the Gonzaga/UCLA game and the Duke/Utah game started out with some horrendous shooting from deep. This is like holding the SEC football title game in a blizzard in New England. It is still fun, but it changes the game substantially.


Hats off to UCLA senior guard Norman Powell. He has always been a better driver than shooter, and he saved some of his finest drives for the final night of his college career. When UCLA couldn’t shoot, he could still take the ball to the basket.


But I thought it was pretty telling that eight Gonzaga players scored in the first 15 minutes. Gonzaga was the deeper team, and on a night when shooting was at a premium, having some different scoring options was critical. UCLA just wasn’t going to win this year when Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton weren’t making their shots. They just didn’t have any other ways to create offense.


Yes, Tony Parker looked good for a stretch. But then Przemek Karnowski absolutely demolished him for a stretch. And Karnowski had two fabulous assists as well. I still don’t know how someone that big and physical can have the touch to throw a behind-the-back pass for an under-the-hoop lay-up.


Both Duke and Gonzaga proved they could win an ugly game Friday Night. And both have proved all year  that they can win a shooting contest. It will be interesting to see which direction Sunday’s game swings.

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