While we do not yet know for sure that Tom Thibodeau and the Chicago Bulls will be parting ways, it looks likely enough now to justifiably ponder some logical next steps.
At the outset, I have to mention that there are nuances to a coach/team fit that are largely unknowable at this point line how much personnel power Thibodeau wants (something Nate Duncan, Seth Partnow and I talked about on Friday morning's Dunc’d On Basketball Podcast), the fundamentals of a good landing place for him stay the same.
In my eyes, a Thibodeau team should have played below expectations on defense, have some key players capable of performing at a high level who will still be under team control a few seasons from now and the total talent to be relevant within the first two seasons.
That set of paramaters makes the best fit a surprising one: the Toronto Raptors. This job is not open yet but checks all the boxes in a more interesting way than some of the other contenders. The Atlantic Division champions were 23rd in Defensive Efficiency last season after finishing ninth the previous year. More importantly, the Raptors have a very short time to determine if young big man Jonas Valanciunas can be their rim protector since he can sign an extension this summer or hit restricted free agency in 2016. Beyond the Lithuanian big, the Raptors have a nice core in Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan with Terrence Ross potentially fitting in as well. Thibs could make his imprint on this team early, have success and help Masai Ujiri ascertain which players will be key factors moving forward.
My No. 2 destination may be his most likely since there are already reports of mutual interest with Thibodeau and the New Orleans Pelicans. A team with Anthony Davis and former Thibs big Omer Asik should not allow 107.3 points per 100 possessions (T-25th) even with unfortunate injuries. Putting a hard-driving coach with two young players who have already missed time due to injuries in AD and Jrue Holiday scares me but he could forge this team’s identity on defense in a way that parallels Mark Jackson with the Warriors. Even with some defensively challenged perimeter players, I see a top-10 defense in this core and that kind of improvement makes New Orleans a more reliable playoff team.
Potentially the most intellectually interesting landing place, a Denver Nuggets' Thibodeau team would be something to see. The hard-driving coach at the NBA’s highest altitude could create a truly fearsome team or just break everyone. The Nuggets could be better defensively and like the Raptors have some big decisions to make in the next fourteen months. One downside here is that Denver teams unquestionably benefit from playing in an uptempo scheme, something that has not exactly been a Thibs hallmark.
The Orlando Magic also makes some sense but may actually be too on the nose for the next Thibs team. The Magic already possess the defensive talent to be much better and should get there with time. Their comparative lack of scorers and shot-creators portends a poor offense without major personnel changes or a coach capable of generating system baskets with regularity. In my eyes, Thibodeau is not that coach.
One other team to add: depending on what talent they bring in this summer, Tom Thibodeau coaching the Los Angeles Lakers either next season or in 2016 after taking some time to recharge his batteries would be fascinating. The post-Kobe Lakers will be ready for molding and Thibodeau could use a young big like Willie Cauley-Stein as the foundation for a new kind of Lakers team. He would not be my top choice for that kind of glamour market since some players do not like his hard driving style but it merits consideration.
