Over the next month, we will be previewing every team in the NBA. Here's is the next installment of our series on the New York Knicks.
2014-15 Record: 17-65
Notable Acquisitions: Robin Lopez (FA), Kristaps Porzingis (Draft), Derrick Williams (FA), Arron Afflalo (FA), Jerian Grant (Draft)
Notable Departures: Andrea Bargnani, Shane Larkin, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Temperature Check:
After the worst season in franchise history, the Knicks are looking to rebuild on the fly. With Carmelo Anthony entering the late stages of his prime, New York will likely contend for the playoffs this season or they’ll find themselves at a crossroads with their franchise player.
Inside the Playbook:
Fresh off signing a four-year, $54 million deal, Robin Lopez will be counted on to be an integral part of the Knicks rebuilding efforts. Though he’s typically thought of as a blue-collar, physical defender and rebounder, Lopez is actually a fairly skilled offensive player. In fact, the Blazer team he just departed was actually better defensively and worse offensively when Lopez was on the bench last season.
To fit the Triangle offense, Lopez will need to put these under-the-radar skills to use. As Phil Jackson has let the world know over the years, the Triangle needs players capable of putting pressure on defenses in numerous ways -- as facilitators, screeners, cutters and low block operators. It’s an offense that in some ways, is the exact opposite of the analytics friendly system Lopez leaves behind in Portland.
As a Blazer, Lopez was primarily asked to do two things: battle for offensive rebounds and set screens and dive to the basket. His role in the Knicks’ Triangle offense will be far different. For starters, Lopez spend a decent chunk of time looking to pick out open teammates executing the Triangles’ staple “split cut.” from the low post:
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Yy8V_ch872c" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
This will be an adjustment for Lopez who, according to the Synergy Sports database, only had five charted passes out post ups all season with Portland (that number is likely low, however, as it only tracks passes out of the post that lead to shots).
Making reads from higher up on the floor might suit Lopez a little bit better. In Portland, head coach ran “Corner” or “Push” action that allowed Lopez to catch at the elbow and try to find open cutters, like this backdoor gem:
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/iRCkVhP1-Lk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Making reads like that aren’t all that different from some of the ones Lopez will make in New York, like my personal favorite, a backdoor drop off pass against an overplay awesomely labeled “Blind Pig” action:
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CZ22iSihf_g" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
To help open these reads in New York, Lopez will probably have to count on a shot that he mostly canned in Portland: the mid-range jumper. Last year, the Knicks lead the NBA in shots taken from 16-24 feet, likely because of how often the Triangle places the ball in that area of the floor. Over the past two seasons, Lopez has only attempted 70 such shots. He’s converted 28 of them, good for a respectable 40 percent from that distance.
But now that he’s in New York, Lopez will have to continue to push that percentage upward over a higher volume of attempts. If he does, he will add even more value to his new roles in Jackson’s Triangle offense.
Lineup to Watch:
Robin Lopez-Kristaps Porzingis-Carmelo Anthony-Arron Afflalo-Jerian Grant
The place where the present and future collide. Grant and Porzingis were drafted by a franchise that has traditionally been allergic to youth with the idea they could become foundational pieces in Jackson’s program. At 6-foot-3, Grant is seen as the bigger, non-traditional guard Jackson prefers in the Triangle. As a high lottery pick, Porzingis is the skilled big man capable of being a threat anywhere in the offense -- from the high post to posting up.
For a team operating a typically rebuilding timeline, these two would be under no pressure to be productive right away. But the average age of Anthony, Afflalo and Lopez is 29, right smack dab in the middle (or in Anthony’s case, nearing the end) of their primes. The combination of the two different age spectrums will make for a very interesting contrast of development versus immediate results.
No matter how they perform, this group, barring injuries, will likely be one of the most used 5-man combinations on the team. So in effect, the Knicks season could simply come down to how this group performs. If this quintet is mediocre or outright struggles, New York will likely endure another long season with lots of losses. On the flip side, if Grant and Porzingis prove capable of holding their own sooner rather than later and mesh well with this established trio of vets, the Knicks could be competitive much quicker than most anticipated.
Wildcard:
The Triangle
With all their offseason additions and the return to health of Anthony, this Knicks team has enough talent on the roster to contend for a playoff spot, particularly in the NBA’s weaker conference. As usual, however, talent alone is only half the equation. How that talent is used is more often than not what truly dictates a team’s success (see: Warriors, Golden State).
It’s clearly not secret that this team is being assembled to run Jackson’s beloved Triangle Offense. Across the internet, the belief that this is an antiquated offense may not be well-suited for the modern NBA is growing. And a closer inspection of New York’s roster makes you wonder if it’s the best fit for the talent on hand as well.
As we all saw in the accidental success of the 2012-13 season, Anthony is a nightmare match-up as a power forward surrounded by shooting. New addition Arron Afflalo had the best two seasons of his career in George Karl’s dribble-penetration based system. Lopez, as mentioned above, excelled as a pick-and-roll finisher last season. Derrick Williams showed promise in Sacramento last year in that same Karl system as a power forward.
The two first round picks, while young and moldable, also seem more suited for different styles. Grant was an attacking, pick-and-roll guard at Notre Dame. Porzingis has all the potential in the world to be the next, great playmaking 4 or even a nightmare inside-out match up as a center (can you imagine him with the Hawks?).
Now NBA players, contrary to what we say and think on the internet are in this league because they are really, really good at basketball. Lopez, Afflalo (who is a solid post player), Porzingis, etc all have attributes that lend really well to the Triangle’s demands. And let’s face it, any system can look productive when good basketball players are playing in it.
The concerns around the Triangle aren’t really whether it can produce results. In year two under Fisher and Jackson, with more talent on hand, it will likely look and perform better. But there’s obviously a difference between the offense looking better and it being the best system for this roster now and going forward. The performance of the Knicks this year will show us how large that gap between “better” and “best” will be.
Coach’s Question:
Should Derek Fisher consider super-small ball?
Let’s pretend for a moment, that we live in a world where Phil Jackson and the Triangle don’t exist. Or an alternate universe where Don Nelson was president of global basketball. Or we can even imagine a scenario where a team that just won an NBA Finals thanks in part to starting a guy that measured 6-foot-5 without shoes at center….
Sarcasm aside, given the league-wide trend of teams playing smaller, the Knicks depth chart houses a handful of players -- Anthony, Derrick Williams, Cleanthony Early, Lance Thomas, etc -- that on most rosters would be considered power forwards or, at the very least, combo guys who would spend a lot of time at that position. But as evidenced by last year, where a player like the 6-foot-8 Thomas played the majority of his minutes at the 3, New York seems to going big while others go small (which, in fairness, there is some theoretical merit to doing).
But for this Knicks, pigeonholing those guys at small forward seems counterproductive (for numerous reasons) because outside of Lopez and Porzingis, the rest of the Knicks bigs are limited upside vets like Lou Amundson, Kevin Seraphin and Kyle O’Quinn. Those players can certainly be solid with the right roles in the right system, but they are mostly guys that, at least without surprising developments, allow you to simply get by. And for a team that is already lacking explosive, top-end talent aside from Anthony, just getting by with bench or hybrid lineups won’t help New York make major strides in the standings.
That’s why Fisher may need to consider rolling out a bunch of his top athletes all at once. Imagine how difficult it would be to defend the Knicks with lineups that have Anthony as the nominal center flanked by some combination of Williams, Early, Porzingis or Thomas in the frontcourt. Sure those lineups would hemorrhage points, but if they played with a fast, attacking tempo, they’d be extremely difficult to guard, enough so that it may produce a net positive for Fisher. Applied in the right doses, these super-small units might give New York an edge they’d otherwise lack if they stuck to more traditional or 90s era lineups they seem built for.
Best Case Scenario:
44-38 If…
Anthony not only proves to be healthy and revitalized, but willing to sacrifice parts of his game (and favored position) in order to better the team (Insert snark here). The kids -- Porzingis, Grant and maybe even Early -- mature quickly into productive regulars while the army of free agents fill key holes in the rotation. Oh, and that whole “Triangle offense not being an anchor to the team’s offensive production” thing.
Worst Case Scenario:
29-53 If…
The Triangle proves to be a disaster despite additions intended to bolster its use and Fisher (because of the presence of Jackson) waits far too long stray from it. Anthony continues his career trend of favoring points and comfort over wins. Lopez misses extended time, exposing the mediocre assembly of big men behind him on the depth chart while Afflalo’s production continues its downward slide.
Click here for a full list of NBA Season Previews from Brett Koremenos.