Here's the next installment of our team-by-team season preview series on the Dallas Mavericks.
2014-15 Record: 50-32
Notable Acquisitions: Wes Matthews (FA), Deron Williams (FA), Zaza Pachulia (Trade), Justin Anderson (Draft)
Notable Departures: Al-Farouq Aminu, Monta Ellis, Richard Jefferson, Rajon Rondo, Amar’e Stoudamire
Temperature Check:
A key figure in the most soap opera-esque moment of the season, Dallas was forced to reconfigure their approach on the fly after DeAndre Jordan decided to ultimately remain with the Los Angeles Clippers. In his place are a combination of veteran castoffs and unheralded young prospects. It will be up to these players, along with Dallas mainstays Rick Carlisle and Dirk Nowitzki, to maintain the team’s incredible run of success.
Inside the Playbook:
Dirk Nowitzki has changed a lot of things about the NBA during his time in the league. But perhaps his biggest impact will be creating an actual concept out of his ability to punk all comers when posting them up on the free throw line.
This call, oddly named “Ear” in the Dallas playbook, comes out whenever Carlisle wants Nowitzki to get into an isolation attack at the nail (center of the free line) or when an opponent switches a smaller player onto him in pick-and-roll, like this:
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The details behind this set are rather easy, as Nowitzki plants himself firmly at the free throw line while his teammates move to spread the floor. Their alignment -- a lone shooter in the corner on on side and a triangle of players (corner shooter, wing shooter and big man in the short corner along the baseline) on the other side -- is what really puts a defense in a bind. With those spots filled, there is no easy way to send a double team.
Bring help off the strongside shooter and you give up a corner 3. Try to flash the big up and you open up either an easy lob at the rim or corner 3 on that side. Stunt hard from the wing shooter and it’s the easiest pitch and catch Nowitzki can make. And because those options are so bad, opponents are just forced to live with Dirk abusing defenders on that spot -- something he’s done for years. And Dallas will need their future Hall-of-Famer to continue to do so if they are doing to be successful this season.
Lineup to Watch:
Dirk Nowitzki-Chandler Parsons-Wes Matthews-Deron Williams & a second point guard
With very few competent (and legit) centers on their roster, it’s tempting to think of crazy lineup combinations that have none at all. And while Nowitzki isn’t a fan of the physical pounding he’d take at that spot, especially given his advancing age, a lineup like this could be an interesting curve ball for the Mavs to throw at opponents.
By going small with shooting at every spot, Dallas could simply play fast, let Parsons and the point guard alongside Williams (Felton, Barea, Harris) attack opponents in space, penetrate into the paint and produce an avalanche of 3s. This group could also be one that allows the Mavericks to “invert” their offense as well, posting either Matthews or Williams and letting them pummell opposing perimeter players on the block while the floor is spaced around them.
The defensive shortcomings of this group may make it more “entertaining” than “effective” but it still might be an option for a Dallas team short on them.
The Wildcard:
The health of Chandler Parsons and Wes Matthews
If the Mavericks are to have any hope at the playoffs this season, the return to health of Parsons and Matthews will be essential. As we know with Matthews, he is working against the odds of a player returning from an achilles tendon tear to recapture his previous production. And for a player who already wasn’t the quickest cat in the league, a lone lost stop (or trickle down effect to his jumper) could leave Dallas with a very ordinary player instead of one that will be needed to take a huge role for a playoff team.
Parsons and his somewhat mysterious knee injury saga is in the same boat. Parsons relies a ton of attacking closeouts with long, crafty strides that put a lot of stress and require a lot of trust in a joint that is on the mend. If he loses confidence in his knee, even if he’s given a clean bill of health, it could be a huge detriment to his game.
The Mavericks need both, not just one, of these players to shake off injuries and return playing at a high level. If they don’t, it will be a long season in big D.
Coach’s Question:
Will Rick Carlisle make super small lineups the norm for Dallas this season?
As mentioned in the Lineup section above, the Mavericks lack of a true, productive big man (outside of maybe Zaza Pachulia) could make for some interesting tactical tweaks. That’s why, instead of playing more traditionally with inferior personnel, Carlisle could go full Don Nelson on the rest of the NBA this season.
Aside from lineups with Dirk at center, players like Charlie Villanueva and 6-foot-9 dunk machine Jeremy Evans could take a crack at anchoring smallball lineups. Carlisle could also even try to roll out random lineups with three point guards -- say Felton, Williams and Barea or Harris -- and just go all out on out-scoring opponents.
With their backs up against the wall after the DeAndre Jordan saga, Dallas needs to think outside the box in order to gain a competitive edge. Going small might be the way for them to win big this year.
Best Case Scenario:
42-40 If…
Matthews and Parsons come back healthy from their injuries. Carlisle cobbles together enough crazy rotations and lineups that it papers over Dirk’s defensive decline and the general lack of talent on the roster. Someone, either a young prospect or veteran journeyman, comes out of nowhere to be a key figure in the rotation.
Worst Case Scenario:
30-52 If…
Nowitzki’s defensive decline becomes a major problem that even Carlisle’s mad scientist approach can’t cover up. Williams fails to be rejuvenated by his fresh start and few other notable contributors -- JJ Barea, Devin Harris, etc -- see their production fall off. And all those journeyman fliers prove to be, well, just that.