Despite a single loss separating its two participants through an entire 82-game regular season, the Eastern Conference Finals could not possibly be any more lopsided than it currently looks.
The Cleveland Cavaliers made winning the first two rounds look easier than sipping pink lemonade in a hammock. They drowned the Detroit Pistons and the Atlanta Hawks by raining outside shots, pounding the offensive glass and coalescing in ways they haven’t since LeBron James returned home two summers ago.
Toronto, on the other hand, is battered and bruised. Their path to the Eastern Conference Finals mirrors an inebriated hike up Mt. Kilimanjaro; they gave their entire fan base gray hair after barely escaping a pair of hideous seven-game series in which they had homecourt advantage both times.
Cleveland is the only playoff team that hasn’t lost. Their flammable offense is averaging 117 points per 100 possessions, which leads the postseason by a wide margin. No group is more accurate behind the three-point line (46.2 percent), nor has attempted more three pointers (36.3 per game).
LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving appear more comfortable together than ever before, Tristan Thompson has resumed his status as a 6’8” mosquito on the offensive glass and since you started reading this article J.R. Smith made nine contested jump shots.
Meanwhile, the Raptors have been wildly inconsistent. Despite entering the postseason with a versatile bench, top-five offense, 11th ranked defense and two All-Stars in the backcourt, Toronto’s opponents have twice pushed them to the brink of elimination. In 14 games, they’ve posted a net rating of -2.1 points per 100 possessions—worse than the San Antonio Spurs, Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Clippers and Atlanta Hawks.
The Raptors’ offense is about as efficient as the Phoenix Suns were during the regular season, which, on paper, sets this series up to be one of the least competitive Conference Finals in recent NBA history. Can Toronto draw blood now that the presumed pressure is off and they’re finally in a match up nobody expects them to win? Or will the Cavaliers throw them in a blender?
These two teams squared off three times in the regular season, and the Raptors won twice. Does that mean anything? Not really. For one: Luis Scola and James Johnson played a total of 103 minutes and the Raptors were outscored by a combined 57 points with them on the floor.
Scola has since fallen out of Toronto’s rotation, and Johnson’s played 15 total minutes in these playoffs. On Cleveland’s side, neither Irving nor Matthew Dellavedova played in the first meeting (Jared Cunningham spotted 21 minutes of 2-for-10 action in their place).
But a major upset won’t materialize because Patrick Patterson is in the starting lineup. It’s an obvious statement, but sometimes basketball is an obvious game: Kyle Lowry needs to be the second-best player in the series (at least) for Toronto to have a prayer. In the regular season series, he took a backseat to nobody against the Cavs, tallying 93 points, 25 assists and two turnovers in 115 minutes. (James scored 69 points in 111 minutes.)
The Raptors disintegrate with Lowry on the bench, and it’ll be interesting to see how hard Dwane Casey leans on his best and only option. If Lowry wants to average 44-plus minutes, he can’t guard Irving as much as Toronto needs him to. That means more minutes for Cory Joseph and/or Norm Powell against a team that likes to play big.
Jonas Valanciunas’ production after the first two games will be a factor, alongside Casey’s rotation behind Bismack Biyombo when the big Lithuanian can’t go.
The Cavaliers grabbed a conference semifinals-high 31 percent of their own missed shots against Atlanta. The Raptors are much more competent on the boards, but Jason Thompson and Lucas Nogueira aren’t the answer.
Assuming the worst, Casey should lean on Biyombo extra hard and go small whenever he needs a breather. That means playing Patterson as a stretch five—Joseph, Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll and Patterson may be a sneaky-useful lineup, even though it’ll struggle on defense.
But at the end of the day, no meaningful adjustment can be made to tip the scales in Toronto’s favor. They’re the inferior team. They have less talent and fewer lineup combinations that can shield off the hammers Cleveland will throw.
What happens when Tyronne Lue rolls LeBron, Love and Channing Frye out at the same time? How does Toronto guard that?
Ultimately, there’s not much to analyze when you stop and realize LeBron is LeBron. During the regular season, the Cavaliers outscored the Raptors by 19.1 points per 100 possessions with LeBron on the floor, and were outscored by 29.4 points per 100 possessions in the 33 minutes he sat.
What more is there to say?
