It happened. Kevin Durant chose the Golden State Warriors and created the potential for one the most dominant and offensively-gifted teams we may ever see. It’s obviously still very early to process, but we’ll try to examine how it will actually look when Durant teams up with his new All-NBA teammates in the Bay.
The Immediate Upgrades
In a simplistic sense, the Warriors have just swapped Harrison Barnes out for Durant. Now obviously Steve Kerr isn’t going to plug his new superstar into Barnes’ old role and leave everything untouched, but Durant will certainly be asked to perform similar tasks -- he’ll just do them a lot better.
Barnes was a secondary option/offensive glue guy during his time with Golden State under Kerr. For all of the criticisms of his game, Barnes at least had the versatility to shift between several different tasks depending on the personnel around him. Whether that was spreading the floor, screening off-the-ball, handling in pick-and-roll or posting up, Barnes could, at the very least, adequately carry out those tasks.
That said, spotting up in catch-and-shoot or closeout attack situations was Barnes' primary means of contribution. Per Synergy data, Barnes was third on the team in “spot up” possessions in the regular season with 211, ranking behind only Draymond Green (240), who played seven more minutes per game than Barnes, and Klay Thompson (275), whose speed and willingness to squeeze off shots versus onrushing defenders is well established. In a general sense, Barnes was Golden State’s “let him beat us” guy, or the player opposing defenses were happy to help off of in order to avoid having Stephen Curry or Thompson rip them to shreds.
From a raw data standpoint, Durant is, not shockingly, already an upgrade over Barnes. In his “spot up” attempts this season, Durant produced a 1.13 points per possession (PPP) rating. Barnes, on the other hand, was solid but further behind at 1.08. That may not seem like much, but in a broader sense, the difference between those two is the equivalent of having the league’s 5th ranked offense versus the league’s 20th ranked unit. Not a bad trade.
Now imagine sliding Durant into situations Barnes inhabited over the past two seasons -- like this Thompson-Andrew Bogut pick-and-roll.
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In the play above, Thompson draws a switch against Karl Anthony-Towns, beats him back to the middle and sucks in the help defender at the nail (lingo for the spot at the middle of the free throw line). While teams generally try to stop all middle penetration, defenders are a lot more willing to help off Barnes than they are to let Thompson (or Curry) get into dangerous areas. The end result of this play was a Barnes turnover (in general, Barnes wasn’t very good in these situations when chased off the 3-point line).
Now if you plug Durant into that spot, it’s an entirely different dynamic. Not only is the help defender on the nail far less willing to move from a cozy help position to put his body in the line of Thompson’s drive, he’ll have to rush out at the mega-talented Durant once the ball is passed out. Given Durant’s all-world skill set, that’s an unsightly proposition.
It’s hard to put into words how devastating that will be to opposing defenses. The gravity of Durant’s presence, much less his actual production in those situations, will leave gaping holes in the dangerous areas of the floor. Because while helping off Barnes in certain situations was not only acceptable, but potentially even game-planned, abandoning Durant to stop other Warriors is a different beast. That sentiment holds true for every Green-Curry pick-and-roll, every split cut and every time the Warriors are in their “Delay” call -- it’s just a neverending series of lose-lose choices for the defenses facing Golden State.
And leaving Barnes open on the perimeter was just one of the ways opponents set up their “let him beat us” strategy. Another was switching everything involving Barnes and daring the Warriors to attack that mismatch. On a basic level, that presented a quandary for Golden State every time it happened. Should they continue to run offense through their bell cows despite little to no advantage or dump the ball into Barnes against a smaller defender? Per Synergy data, it wasn’t exactly an awful choice to throw it into Barnes, as his PPP on post ups was .91, placing him in the league’s upper third in such situations.
Yet, by swapping out Barnes for the Durant again in the situations -- like pick-and-rolls or off-ball screens -- that opponents used switches to combat, the dynamic totally shifts. Instead of choosing between their bread-and-butter and Barnes, the Warrior bread-and-butter will be Durant posting up. Last season, Durant produced a whopping 1.24 PPP on 149 post up situations, a phenomenal number that put him atop the league. That number alone could completely eradicate the concept of switching anything involving a Durant screen from opponent’s defensive playbooks.
Given where the game is going, it’s a notion so absurd it’s almost impossible to comprehend. Yet even on a surface level, we’re starting to get a glimpse of what Durant’s decision to join the Warriors is going to do to defenses around the NBA.
The Possibilities
It’s going to be hard to predict exactly what Kerr will do with his new offensive star. Obviously, as we went over above, plugging Durant into the team’s base schemes will do enough damage. Kerr and his staff are also probably diligent enough that they will comb over Oklahoma City's playbook, pick out sets that Durant excelled in and plug them into their own playbook. After that, it’s up to essentially Kerr’s imagination and the random strokes of organic, creative brilliance that occur as these players begin to work together starting in training camp.
A good bet would be that we see Durant both handling and screening in pick-and-rolls involving Curry. The traditional 1-3/1-4 pick-and-roll with Curry handling and Durant setting the pick will be hard enough to defend, especially given the switching problem we outlined above. But the inverse -- which we’ve seen with LeBron James and Norris Cole or Mario Chalmers when they were together in Miami -- is a totally new element with all kinds of destructive powers.
Barnes wasn’t a skilled enough ballhandler or savvy enough in pick-and-roll to merit a high volume of attempts with Curry screening for him. Green could handle the distinction but, the Warriors incumbent power forward still isn’t enough of a threat from deep for opponents just to duck under every Curry pick and let him shoot 3’s behind the screen. Durant, once again, is a different beast.
With Curry setting the screen and Durant handling, the Golden State duo can present a problem for every coverage defenses could attempt to throw at them in that situation. Go under Curry’s pick and Durant will uncork an uncontested 3. Trail behind Durant and he’s got the handle to beat a token show -- which you’ll have to use in order to keep Curry from getting separation for a shot of his own -- get downhill and attack the basket. Switch and either Durant or Curry will eviscerate a mismatch. It’s a potential play that’s an absolute nightmare to deal with.
With such a tremendously skilled and talented group of players at his disposal, Kerr will likely create up some difficult dilemmas for his opponents to deal with starting this October.
The Concerns
Every dream pairing is exactly that until chemistry kicks in -- a dream. Just because Curry, Durant, Thompson and Green are a death machine on paper, doesn’t mean there are not legitimate concerns about how they mesh.
For starters, Durant will have to adjust to the flowing randomness that is Golden State’s base offense. Given how ball-dominant he’s been throughout his career, it’ll be interesting to see how Durant responds to a system that is primarily based on improvised off-the-ball cuts and movement. The Warriors' halfcourt offense is an atypical combination of college-like concepts (the mover-blocker and basic motion) with high IQ players reading and reacting on a whim.
Durant’s likely never played in anything like this before - a major contrast to how Curry and Thompson spent their formative basketball years. The Warriors' new former MVP clearly has the skills to fit in, it’s just a matter of how quickly he can shed the ball-stopping/ball-hawking habits that he’s accumulated with the Thunder and previous levels of the game. What the Warriors can’t afford to have happen is a proliferation of “iso” ball spread throughout their offensive system.
Given Durant, Curry and Thompson are natural shooters/scorers versus ball movers, this is going to be an interesting development. Curry and Thompson can obviously move the ball, but Curry’s playmaking has a reckless component to it while Thompson, who can be a wonderfully unselfish passer, mostly does his damage moving the ball in simple drive-and-kick situations. Green is perhaps the only true playmaker of this quintet and the Warriors will need both his voice and pass-first mentality to keep their offense flowing.
But if these four can develop a trust and chemistry quickly, the Warriors will in fact be the unstoppable machine many are predicting.
