Grading The Deal: Russell Westbrook, Thunder Agree Upon $85M Extension

User avatar
RealGM Articles
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,786
And1: 45
Joined: Mar 20, 2013

Grading The Deal: Russell Westbrook, Thunder Agree Upon $85M Extension 

Post#1 » by RealGM Articles » Thu Aug 4, 2016 7:00 pm

Russell Westbrook will be always nothing if not different. From his unmatchable, violent approach to the game, his fashion curation and detachment with the media, Westbrook is a perennial MVP candidate and commercially viable superstar that doesn’t do anything like anyone else.


Signing a three-year, $85 million extension with the Thunder exactly a month after Kevin Durant left the franchise and less than a year before he could also become a free agent is another special Westbrook-only move. Westbrook chose one additional season of loyalty, more guaranteed short-term money and perhaps a type of solo revenge.


The extension isn’t purely symbolic but it does only gives the Thunder one additional season of control as he can become a free agent now in 2018. Oklahoma City presumably told Westbrook they would trade him if he didn’t agree upon an extension and this allows both parties to be in the same exact position they were this summer a year from now next summer.


The Thunder nearly made The Finals with Westbrook, Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka along with their supporting core. Now the Thunder will need to compete against an improved Warriors team without Durant and Ibaka, but with a fully unleashed, fully anointed Westbrook and the additions of Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova and Dontas Motiejunas. Westbrook staying with the Thunder for 16-17 without the real possibility of a February trade will be one of the more interesting NBA subplots from an entrainment perspective. The three or four matchups against the Warriors in the regular season and the possibility of meeting again in the playoffs will be the most watched nights in the NBA calendar, but every night of Westbrook on his own with the Thunder will be watched and Vine’d.


At least for one season, Westbrook and the Thunder are completely going for it. The Thunder will aspire to become their own version of last year’s Blazers with perhaps a little more upside since Westbrook is a superior player than Damian Lillard at this point in their careers. If that’s enough for Westbrook indefinitely, we’ll still find out a year from now.


The 2017 NBA Draft is completely loaded with with 12 freshmen projected in the top-15. Tearing it down by trading away Westbrook to Boston for the 2017 Brooklyn pick, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart while signing Steven Adams to an extension and trading away Enes Kanter would be the more prudent, dispassionate long-term move. The Thunder would have their own very high lottery pick and the Nets’ pick to again do what Sam Presti so expertly did between 2007 and 2009 by drafting Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka and James Harden.


The end goal of a GM that accumulates draft picks is to end up with a player like Westbrook, so you never trade him when you don’t have to but it does very little good to have him if you can’t eventually build a title around him. Westbrook is capable of being an antihero on an anti-superteam filled with role players, but it’s difficult to see the current construction of the Oklahoma City roster facilitating that vision. There’s not enough shooting and defense around Westbrook and that’s been the story throughout Oklahoma City’s playoff runs. The Thunder were the best team in the NBA at one point in May but improvisationally bandaging up this team with role players hasn’t been the strongest part of their history. The process of trading away Harden, trading picks for former lottery picks like Kaner and Dion Waiters, trading Ibaka for former lottery picks like Oladipo and current ones like Sabonis all make sense but none have been the right acquisitions except for the pick that became Adams.


Letting Westbrook play out 16-17 and possibly leaving in 2017 without any return would have been catastrophic for the Thunder, so this extension at least eliminates that prospect. The opportunity to make a similar decision one year from now with the possibility of signing Blake Griffin is a risk worth taking but sitting out the potentially historic 2017 draft class could be a long-term mistake that puts the franchise back in a more subtle way.


Grade for Thunder: B-


While the Thunder made their decision from a place of judiciousness, it is difficult to see Westbrook choosing to commit an extra season for reasons other than stubborn ones. Westbrook receives more money in the short-term but he puts himself at one more season of risk before getting a long-term deal while also removing one potential season of title contention from his career. Westbrook figures to have a shorter peak than someone like Durant as uber athletic point guards who can’t shoot efficiently from distance don’t age as well.


It is an admirable decision for Westbrook to soldier on with the Thunder and see what he can achieve as a solo artist but he’s doing it with the wrong supporting cast and the wrong franchise. The Celtics could have traded a package for Westbrook that accelerates Oklahoma City’s rebuild while also becoming instant title contenders.


Financially, Westbrook just needs to hang in there to continue to being healthy and dominant until 2018 when he can sign his 35 percent supermax to make the money work long-term. Whether it’s been Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard and even Kevin Love, no player of Westbrook’s caliber has made this type of decision in recent years. It’s his own path even if it’s just a postponement of one year.


Grade for Russell Westbrook: C+

cjliu49
Ballboy
Posts: 24
And1: 3
Joined: Jul 30, 2013

Re: Grading The Deal: Russell Westbrook, Thunder Agree Upon $85M Extension 

Post#2 » by cjliu49 » Thu Aug 4, 2016 9:17 pm

first time i've disagreed with a realgm grade post. A for the Thunder, B+ for Russell. How can you not give the Thunder an A... and how can you really diss Russell's decision, he is maxing out his money while maintaining leverage to switch teams just a little bit later, and he has no alternative either. There is no team that is significantly better than the Thunder that he could go to next year. Say the Warriors couldn't sign Durant, his 2nd best option was a way way worse option in terms of title contention.
SATANLOVES
Freshman
Posts: 54
And1: 146
Joined: Jan 16, 2010
 

Re: Grading The Deal: Russell Westbrook, Thunder Agree Upon $85M Extension 

Post#3 » by SATANLOVES » Thu Aug 4, 2016 10:14 pm

This article is stupid. OKC did great by keeping him and he got his money secured.
uncleoswald
Sophomore
Posts: 157
And1: 76
Joined: May 16, 2009
Location: expect the unexpected
 

Re: Grading The Deal: Russell Westbrook, Thunder Agree Upon $85M Extension 

Post#4 » by uncleoswald » Fri Aug 5, 2016 12:12 am

did motiejunas sign with the thunder? maybe you meant sabonis.
Patches Perry
RealGM
Posts: 11,285
And1: 15,339
Joined: May 11, 2016
 

Re: Grading The Deal: Russell Westbrook, Thunder Agree Upon $85M Extension 

Post#5 » by Patches Perry » Fri Aug 5, 2016 2:44 pm

The Celtics could have traded a package for Westbrook that accelerates Oklahoma City’s rebuild while also becoming instant title contenders.


OKC is not in a "rebuild" phase. They are still in position to tweak. This is a problem in the NBA. Everything has to rebuild from scratch. Durant leaves, and that means the whole thing needs to be blown up? Trading Westbrook is telling your other assets under 25 years old (Adams, Kanter, Roberson, Oladipo) to make other plans. Westbrook is 27, Adams/Kanter/Oladipo/Roberson under 25. Throw Payne in there too if you wish. You have a top 5 player and some great support pieces. They probably need an all-star caliber forward to round out the roster to fill the void Durant left.

I'm not sure why anyone would give a poorer grade to a team because they didn't blow it up to become Philly in virtue of being able to keep a top 5 player and be a 45-50 win team now.

Grade for article: C-
bballshinobi
Ballboy
Posts: 48
And1: 6
Joined: Jun 18, 2015

Re: Grading The Deal: Russell Westbrook, Thunder Agree Upon $85M Extension 

Post#6 » by bballshinobi » Fri Aug 5, 2016 8:38 pm

I agree with cjliu49 - this is probably the first NBA transaction grade comment from RealGM that I have ever disagreed with. The author makes a good point but then contradict his own argument:

"The end goal of a GM that accumulates draft picks is to end up with a player like Westbrook, so you never trade him when you don’t have to but it does very little good to have him if you can’t eventually build a title around him."


His rationale seems to be that the current Thunder can't acquire enough pieces to eventually become a championship team. He cited the lack of shooting and defense as the primary missing ingredients. However, aren't 3&D players the most fashionable type of players right now? Every wing player who is not a superstar in the league is trying to develop their game into a 3&D role player, and you are saying that Thunder should trade Westbrook for a bunch of young players and picks because the team is missing 3&D players? Playing the Sam Hinkie ball makes sense when your team is a dumpster fire, but if you already have a superstar and plenty of good young players then you should try to develop the team.

If his arguing for a team to trade away its superstar if it can't compete for a championship, does that mean that 26 out of 30 teams should all get on the phone and sell their superstars? Tanking doesn't lead to winning. The only proven strategy to winning is to have multiple superstar players, regardless of how you acquire them. Tanking increases your chance to acquire talents in the draft, but for every Karl-Anthony Towns you also get a Anthony Bennett. You can tank and have high draft pick every year, but you might still end up like the Magic or the Bucks.

If you already have a superstar, then you need to develop a winning environment to attract other superstars. Great players don't want to play with young players or draft picks. Lebron left CLE to play with Bosh and Wade, then left MIA to play with Kyrie and KLove. Aldirdge left Portland to play with Duncan and Kawhi. If young players and draft picks are more attractive, then everybody and their mom would've signed with the Celtics this offseason. You keep Westbrook and you have a chance to land a superstar in the free agency. You let Westbrook go for a bunch of young players and draft picks, the best case is becoming the Celtics - 9 replacement level players and annual 1st/2nd round exit.

OKC actually did exactly what the author wants - get young players, acquire picks, and maintain flexibility - when they traded away James Harden for a bunch of crap (they have Steven Adams to show for it, but they probably could've acquired a 12th pick with a much lower price than Harden). By cheaping out and always focus on the future flexibility, they actually lost both Durant and Harden.
badax33
Ballboy
Posts: 3
And1: 0
Joined: May 05, 2006

Re: Grading The Deal: Russell Westbrook, Thunder Agree Upon $85M Extension 

Post#7 » by badax33 » Sat Aug 6, 2016 11:52 am

Disagree with the author
First it's a great deal for RW. He get a big raises and in 2 years gets the max at 35%. Pls do the math. A+ for RW.
Second I canstill see RW traded at the deadline. especially if they aren't playing well. The added year makes RW more valueable in a deal. However, it also gives OKC a chance to make some upgrades to build around him. So I give OKC and A+ as well.
gabri3l3
Junior
Posts: 378
And1: 468
Joined: Jun 25, 2015
   

Re: Grading The Deal: Russell Westbrook, Thunder Agree Upon $85M Extension 

Post#8 » by gabri3l3 » Sat Aug 6, 2016 12:18 pm

badax33 wrote:Disagree with the author
First it's a great deal for RW. He get a big raises and in 2 years gets the max at 35%. Pls do the math. A+ for RW.
Second I canstill see RW traded at the deadline. especially if they aren't playing well. The added year makes RW more valueable in a deal. However, it also gives OKC a chance to make some upgrades to build around him. So I give OKC and A+ as well.


I agree. Perfect deal for Russ as he maximizes the money he gets
PF55
Ballboy
Posts: 6
And1: 3
Joined: Aug 05, 2016

Re: Grading The Deal: Russell Westbrook, Thunder Agree Upon $85M Extension 

Post#9 » by PF55 » Sat Aug 6, 2016 12:40 pm

This deal was clearly an A+ for both sides.

Westbrook had one year left @ $17.7M and committed to OKC for ONLY one additional year and now gets $55.1M (plus a free $30.5M insurance policy in the form of an option year). So quick math tells us the he will earn $37.4M in 2017-18. And he needed that year to reach 10 years and a super Max next contract. It's such a no-brainer, i can't fathom how you gave him a C+.

The Thunder couldn't trade Westbrook and get equal value because of the expiring contract. Now he will be available to trade in 6 months , just before the the trade deadline, and the other team will be guaranteed the stretch run/playoffs this year and the entire 2017*18 season. Then that team will have a big financial advantage of being able to offer the 5 year super max.

So let's say that the Thunder are sitting around the 5th or 6th seed next Feb 15th, a good team but not a threat to GSW, SAS or LAC. And And Boston is in second in the east a couple of games behind Clev. Presti should be able to get a king's ransom from Ainge: I Thomas, Jaylen Brown and that Brooklyn pick and still make the playoffs, while jump-starting his rebuild. That's the flexibility this deal gave OKC.
EnriCela13
Sophomore
Posts: 165
And1: 28
Joined: Jan 22, 2014

Re: Grading The Deal: Russell Westbrook, Thunder Agree Upon $85M Extension 

Post#10 » by EnriCela13 » Tue Aug 9, 2016 3:48 am

PF55 wrote:This deal was clearly an A+ for both sides.

Westbrook had one year left @ $17.7M and committed to OKC for ONLY one additional year and now gets $55.1M (plus a free $30.5M insurance policy in the form of an option year). So quick math tells us the he will earn $37.4M in 2017-18. And he needed that year to reach 10 years and a super Max next contract. It's such a no-brainer, i can't fathom how you gave him a C+.

The Thunder couldn't trade Westbrook and get equal value because of the expiring contract. Now he will be available to trade in 6 months , just before the the trade deadline, and the other team will be guaranteed the stretch run/playoffs this year and the entire 2017*18 season. Then that team will have a big financial advantage of being able to offer the 5 year super max.

So let's say that the Thunder are sitting around the 5th or 6th seed next Feb 15th, a good team but not a threat to GSW, SAS or LAC. And And Boston is in second in the east a couple of games behind Clev. Presti should be able to get a king's ransom from Ainge: I Thomas, Jaylen Brown and that Brooklyn pick and still make the playoffs, while jump-starting his rebuild. That's the flexibility this deal gave OKC.


Exactly what I was thinking! And I think they could get more for him in a trade than that but I see where you're going with it.
Omega Prime
Ballboy
Posts: 21
And1: 1
Joined: Jul 07, 2016

Re: Grading The Deal: Russell Westbrook, Thunder Agree Upon $85M Extension 

Post#11 » by Omega Prime » Tue Aug 9, 2016 7:54 am

Obviously this is a great deal for both sides. When I saw the author's latest grading the deal article and saw the whack grades, I thought he is just making up these grades to cause controversy and get people posting comments.

But now I know how he grades the deals. Just throws darts at the Real Gm Grade the Deal dart board and, there you go.

Return to Articles Discussion