On Warriors' Big 3 Possibility In 2016

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On Warriors' Big 3 Possibility In 2016 

Post#1 » by RealGM Blog » Tue Jul 15, 2014 9:35 pm

I was inspired by a piece from Tim Kawakami to do a walkthrough of how I think about a situation like the Golden State Warriors adding a max player in the summer of 2016.


Like Tim, I will use a conservative estimate of a $75 million salary cap for that 2016-17 season, though I will throw in some figures of how it would work with a $80 million cap that could be closer to what we actually see two summers from now.


The Non-Negotiables


When looking that far in the future, I strip the entire salary structure down and start with only the mandatory pieces. If we are talking about Golden State and a max player in 2016, that means just Stephen Curry and the max player. We know Curry’s 16-17 salary, but the other guy’s is a mystery right now. Fortunately, if that other player is Kevin Durant we can work it out.


The most Kevin Durant can be paid for the 16-17 season is the larger of 30% of the salary cap (calculated slightly differently than the actual salary cap) and 105% of his salary from the previous season. Even at a conservative $75 million salary cap, Durant would make more under the 30% calculation.


At a $75 million salary cap, the Warriors would have to carry $40.39 million or less in non-Curry salary to sign Kevin Durant with cap space. At an $80 million cap, this number jumps to about $43.89 million. For reference, LeBron’s max is about $4 million higher than Durant’s due to his greater amount of NBA experience.


The Money on the Books


That remaining $40.39 million or so can come from any source but must include everything if the Warriors are to sign a max player using cap space. That means on the books salaries as well as cap holds to pending free agents and clearing the space would also mean no trade exceptions and the much smaller Room Mid-Level Exception.


At present, the Warriors have about $30 million committed to Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston and Nemanja Nedovic for that season. It should be noted that Nedovic’s contract is a team option and Livingston’s contract is reportedly about half-guaranteed, so there would be a little wiggle room if either is still in the equation at that point.


The players not counted that the Warriors would presumably want to retain include 2015 restricted free agents Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. Their combined price tag is larger than the $10 million remaining (there’s a chance each of them gets that much, though I expect Thompson to get much more and Green less) so that means Bob Myers would need to make some choices. When you add in Harrison Barnes hitting restricted free agency that summer the situation gets even more challenging.


Both Iguodala and Bogut will be expiring contracts that season and we know that teams will be clearing cap space with reckless abandon to acquire a star or two so there could be interest in either or both should they age reasonably. Depending on the salary they get, either Thompson or Green could price himself out of a spot on that 2016 Warriors team as well. If the Warriors want to sign someone to a max deal using cap space, at least one and likely two of Bogut, Iguodala, Thompson and Green will need to go.


The Bigger Swings


As I said before, you can see that $40.39 million for players beyond Curry and Durant in a series of different ways: it could be retaining existing  players either currently on their deals or signing new ones soon, adding new players via free agency or trades, or some combination of the two.


By far my favorite possibilities for Golden State in 2016 come from using that $40.39 million more aggressively. The Warriors have an elite player locked up to a below-market contract and should be close to a new arena and presumably a larger revenue stream from that and their local TV deal which expires at the end of the upcoming season. Furthermore, I sincerely doubt we see a hard cap in the new CBA so playing the free agency game for a soft cap and heavy luxury tax payments makes the most sense. Plus, building a strong core then makes it a near certainty that Stephen Curry would stick around when he hits unrestricted free agency the following year.


If they could clear the money, the Warriors could actually sign two max players even at the higher 35% salary slot and still keep Curry. Doing so would require some major sacrifices at some point since the team has so many other assets. Fortunately, the fact that other teams will be clearing the decks too means that Golden State would not have to be particularly proactive unless someone’s contract looks substantially worse two summers from now. That said, we have no idea how willing other franchises would be to enable a team to have a core of Stephen Curry and two of LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Dwight Howard, Joakim Noah, Marc Gasol, Al Horford and Goran Dragic. That said, each individual piece holds value right now so the sales pitch would be much easier. This approach worked reasonably well for the Rockets with Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik even though the end result may not have been to their liking.


This concept of a core with three max players also helps explain why moving Klay Thompson to get Kevin Love makes so much sense if Love is willing to commit to staying long-term. Even if Love takes the most money he can, the Warriors could still open up another max slot in 2016 without too much trouble as long as the league does not play some serious hanky panky with the new TV deal and the cap. We know right now that Thompson will command a massive salary on his next contract and a team with one of the best young players in the sport should be able to command someone better than Thompson to be the No. 2 or even No. 3 player, as good as Thompson could become. While the Warriors have a strong team right now, a foundation of three All-Stars in their mid to late twenties would be legitimately special regardless of what other teams around the league can manage that summer.


Bob Myers and the rest of the Warriors’ front office have some major decisions to make but the combination of Stephen Curry’s below market contract and the expanding salary cap create some genuinely compelling options.

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Re: On Warriors' Big 3 Possibility In 2016 

Post#2 » by Warriorfan » Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:10 am

Get Love now that seems possible hopefully without KMart sign Festus Ezelli on the cheap if healthy started 45 games rookie year and Dramond Green around mle.

Its possible dream Durant
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Re: On Warriors' Big 3 Possibility In 2016 

Post#3 » by HomegrownRebel » Sat Jul 19, 2014 1:33 pm

Durant will not be coming to Golden State. IF and ONLY IF he leaves OKC (which I don't see happening), he'll be going to the Washington Wizards - his home area of Washington DC. He has a tattoo of Maryland on his back. Why in the world, if he leaves OKC, would he go to GS? Washington is better than GS IMO.
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Re: On Warriors' Big 3 Possibility In 2016 

Post#4 » by Dasein » Sat Jul 19, 2014 3:45 pm

HomegrownRebel wrote:Durant will not be coming to Golden State. IF and ONLY IF he leaves OKC (which I don't see happening), he'll be going to the Washington Wizards - his home area of Washington DC. He has a tattoo of Maryland on his back. Why in the world, if he leaves OKC, would he go to GS? Washington is better than GS IMO.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: On Warriors' Big 3 Possibility In 2016 

Post#5 » by HomegrownRebel » Sat Jul 19, 2014 5:16 pm

Dasein wrote:
HomegrownRebel wrote:Durant will not be coming to Golden State. IF and ONLY IF he leaves OKC (which I don't see happening), he'll be going to the Washington Wizards - his home area of Washington DC. He has a tattoo of Maryland on his back. Why in the world, if he leaves OKC, would he go to GS? Washington is better than GS IMO.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


You can laugh all you want. I'd rather have John Wall, Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat, Nene, and Paul Pierce than the Warriors team. Lee is good, not consistent. And you can keep thinking Durant would come there. Very doubtful. He's always making his way back to the hole that is Maryland. He loves his hometown and area. Why would he want to live closer to fruitcakes?
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Re: On Warriors' Big 3 Possibility In 2016 

Post#6 » by Warriorfan » Sun Mar 15, 2015 3:21 pm

HomegrownRebel wrote:Durant will not be coming to Golden State. IF and ONLY IF he leaves OKC (which I don't see happening), he'll be going to the Washington Wizards - his home area of Washington DC. He has a tattoo of Maryland on his back. Why in the world, if he leaves OKC, would he go to GS? Washington is better than GS IMO.


One year later GS as a team seems more attractive than DC. Atl is also a possibility.
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Re: On Warriors' Big 3 Possibility In 2016 

Post#7 » by spin_cycle » Fri Jan 15, 2016 4:18 pm

Warriors already have a big 3 in 2015. Curry, Draymond and Klay.
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Re: On Warriors' Big 3 Possibility In 2016 

Post#8 » by old rem » Sat Feb 20, 2016 8:31 pm

Dasein wrote:
HomegrownRebel wrote:Durant will not be coming to Golden State. IF and ONLY IF he leaves OKC (which I don't see happening), he'll be going to the Washington Wizards - his home area of Washington DC. He has a tattoo of Maryland on his back. Why in the world, if he leaves OKC, would he go to GS? Washington is better than GS IMO.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Okay... what seemed real in 2014.. has changed. Wiz....NOT Close to GSW. Cap has soared but GSW paid Klay+ Dray. Can they slash a few $ to sign Durant? Probably. It's risky. Yo have to CUT/Burn BEFORE Durant is SIGNED.

Worst case.. you yard sale several main guys.. fail to get Durant. Best case You dump rotation guys
maybe some other depth, but get Durant (max $ now --then.. in a Year Curry is ALSO max). looks good.. but one injury can be huge.. can't afford much depth.
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Re: On Warriors' Big 3 Possibility In 2016 

Post#9 » by old rem » Mon Sep 19, 2016 2:51 pm

HomegrownRebel wrote:Durant will not be coming to Golden State. IF and ONLY IF he leaves OKC (which I don't see happening), he'll be going to the Washington Wizards - his home area of Washington DC. He has a tattoo of Maryland on his back. Why in the world, if he leaves OKC, would he go to GS? Washington is better than GS IMO.
well.. that turned into a crow sandwich.

GSW.....had REALLY got good and the Cap game changed. Durant is a Warrior. :D . I'd note Durant did not stay around DC for college.
I'm talking to a post a couple years old... MUCH has changed. Back then I sure never thought GSW would be a top dog AND add Durant.
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Re: On Warriors' Big 3 Possibility In 2016 

Post#10 » by old rem » Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:13 pm

HomegrownRebel wrote:
Dasein wrote:
HomegrownRebel wrote:Durant will not be coming to Golden State. IF and ONLY IF he leaves OKC (which I don't see happening), he'll be going to the Washington Wizards - his home area of Washington DC. He has a tattoo of Maryland on his back. Why in the world, if he leaves OKC, would he go to GS? Washington is better than GS IMO.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


You can laugh all you want. I'd rather have John Wall, Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat, Nene, and Paul Pierce than the Warriors team. Lee is good, not consistent. And you can keep thinking Durant would come there. Very doubtful. He's always making his way back to the hole that is Maryland. He loves his hometown and area. Why would he want to live closer to fruitcakes?


Uh..... have you ever lived in Nor Cal? It's got MANY good things. Have you ever been in Oklahoma? Not great if you are a minority.
Anyhow.. the deal is done. If I got $$$ millions I buy a Napa Vinyard and a Sausilito Houseboat. Very nice. However... the hills above Berkeley and Oakland are very nice. San Fran has some VERY cool areas. There's scenic wonders near by. My friend's house has a great view of the Golden Gate Bridge, you can walk to Baker Beach.... you can walk to Clement Street. Actually.. can walk to Golden Gate park. From SF .....it's just a day trip to Yosemite. It's less to get to Marin, Napa, etc.. VERY nice. Nothing like it in OK.
Business future? well.....N Cal is a hub of Hi Tech.

If I have a BUNCH of $......GSW is where I wanna be. The TEAM was super.. and Durant makes them extra super. SF is EXPENSIVE (as are any nice areas around DC). WHY is it expensive? It's a VERY nice place to be.
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