2014 Record: 9-7, second in AFC West
Current +/- wins per LV Hilton: 8
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Overall: In 2013 the Chargers rallied to win five of their final six games to miraculously make the playoffs, where they won a game before putting a big scare into the eventual AFC champion Broncos. They were a feel-good story in Mike McCoy’s debut season.
The story reversed in 2014. San Diego opened 5-1 but withered down the stretch, dropping three of its final four to fall out of playoff contention despite finishing with the same 9-7 record as the prior campaign. Quarterback Philip Rivers and the offense sputtered badly as the season bore on, as injury issues and a lack of punch on defense took their toll.
Now in Year Three of the McCoy era, this team appears at a crossroads. Rivers remains a fiery leader capable of greatness, and he’s got what is likely his best assortment of weapons since LaDanian Tomlinson’s heyday. Smart additions like first-round pick Melvin Gordon, slot receiver Stevie Johnson and left guard Orlando Franklin will help bolster the attack.
Defensively, San Diego is built from the back to the front. As great as safety Eric Weddle is, it’s hard to depend so highly on the secondary to cover for an iffy front which has not come close to meeting expectations. It didn’t help that kicker Nick Novak’s weak kickoffs and inconsistent coverage units allowed too many short fields, either.
The Chargers still possess formidable talent, but there are several key questions surrounding their potential. Perhaps foremost is the future of the franchise in San Diego, an unfortunate potential distraction which is unlikely to go away. McCoy and his staff have their work cut out for them.
Five Questions
1. Can the running game get going?
Running the ball was a major struggle for San Diego last year. The Chargers finished 31st in the NFL (only Arizona was lower) in yards per carry at just 3.4. Just 23% of their first downs came via the ground, ranking 28th, while their rushing output accounted for just 25% of the offense, ranking 31st as well. Both the line and the running backs share the blame for the anemic output.
GM Tom Telesco didn’t stand pat, and the Chargers should be much more formidable on the ground in 2015. The line is shuffled for the better, while Telesco spent his first-round pick on a legit feature back. Melvin Gordon immediately vaults to the top of the depth chart. The Wisconsin wonder should be a strong candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year. His high-kneed speed and slashing style remind me very much of Robert Smith. Many compare him to Jamaal Charles, which is also lofty company though I don’t think Gordon’s quite as fast thru the A- or B-gaps.
One of the few chinks in Gordon’s repertoire is catching the ball (it’s not his hands but rather relative lack of opportunity at Wisconsin), but San Diego is in great shape there…as long as Danny Woodhead and Branden Oliver are both healthy. They are the holdovers from a year ago, and frankly they were the two backs of the deep rotation worth keeping. Woodhead missed almost all of last season with an ankle injury, a season after catching 76 passes and earning Rivers’ trust in every situation. He could catch 85 this season, and that might be as many carries as he gets too. Oliver stepped up nicely as a lowly-regarded rookie. Like Woodhead, he’s diminutive (5’6”) but his game is between the tackles. The former Buffalo Bull cranked out over 4.6 yards per carry from tackle to tackle, handily the most effective rusher on the roster. He’s a nice complement to Gordon and the trio represents a significant upgrade.
The line shakes out like this:
<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-conversation=\"none\" lang=\"en\"><p lang=\"de\" dir=\"ltr\">O-Line Starters: King Dunlap, Orlando Franklin, Chris Watt, Johnnie Troutman, D.J. Fluker Backups: Joe Barksdale, Trevor Robinson Grade: B</p>— ⚡⚡CHARGERS⚡⚡ (@ChargersLegion) <a href=\"https://twitter.com/ChargersLegion/status/624401971676450816\">July 24, 2015</a></blockquote>
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There was talk of moving D.J. Fluker inside to right guard, but as of now (July 30) he’s still the starting right tackle. The concept makes sense, as the guards were nothing short of embarrassing last year. Chad Rinehart is gone from left guard, and the difference between newcomer Orlando Franklin and him is akin to trading up from an old Oldsmobile Alero to an Audi A6. Franklin is a street brawler of a run blocker, a tenacious hole clearer who is a physical handful to match up against. His penchant for penalties is problematic but the fifth-year veteran is a major upgrade. He and Dunlap are a formidable duo on the left side and figure to pave the way for Gordon & Co. to add at least half a yard to that rushing average.
Fluker remains in the lineup for his run blocking, though he can struggle to stay engaged with defenders at times. His pass protection is a liability, hence the potential move inside. The team brought in Joseph Barksdale to help the depth and perhaps compete for the right tackle gig, but he’s not any better at either skill than Fluker. At least the Jimi Hendrix-loving veteran improves the third tackle spot. I wouldn’t rule out Barksdale taking over at tackle and Fluker sliding inside if the terrible Johnnie Troutman continues to bomb at right guard. Neither Jeremiah Sirles nor Kenny Wiggins are the answer, not even as reserves.
I’m a Chris Watt fan from his days at Notre Dame. He spent his rookie campaign at both right guard and center with mixed results. Staying in the pivot should help his development. Watt is blessed with great strength and tenacity, and he’s technically proficient inside. Expect improvement.
2. Where does the pass rush come from?
San Diego’s pass rush really struggled in 2014. The Chargers ranked 29th in sack percentage, and that lofty ranking comes only thanks to a four-sack outing in the finale which lifted them out of the bottom three. They spent most of the year in the bottom two in that category. End Corey Liuget led the team with just 4.5 sacks, less than half what the team leaders on 26 other teams bagged.
More than just the low sack total, San Diego just couldn’t generate any sort of consistent disruption up front. Dwight Freeney was somewhat effective rushing around the edge but the venerable veteran had become as one-dimensional as any player in any sport. He didn’t even try to play the run, and his four sacks on 40 (per Pro Football Focus) QB Hurries is a dangerous inefficiency. Still, the 35-year-old was the only player who provided any sort of punch. He remains unsigned by any team right now, a testament to his age and increasingly narrow role.
The Chargers are desperately hoping this is the year Melvin Ingram lives up to expectations. The 2012 first-rounder has battled a litany of injuries which have stymied his considerable potential. He’s slimmed down about 15 pounds in an effort to put less strain on his body frame. Ingram, whose versatility and closing speed shined at South Carolina, represents the best hope for internal improvement. Last year’s second-round pick Jerry Attaochu picked up a sack in his debut game but added just one other in an underwhelming rookie campaign. He must add some countermoves and physical strength or else he’s nothing more than a situational edge nibbler and not the impact starter they need him to be.
Up front, neither nose tackle Sean Lissimore or end Kendall Reyes make plays in the backfield against the run, let alone provide any semblance of a pass rush. Reyes probably should lose pass-rush reps to young Ricardo Matthews, who showed a little life in limited duty a year ago.
The lack of a pass rush showed in the secondary, too. San Diego notched just seven INTs and finished near the bottom in passes defended despite having a pretty solid starting secondary. Weddle & Co. are the strength of the defense but they need a lot more help from the big guys up front. It’s just hard to see where that help is going to come from unless Ingram and Attaochu peak quickly.
3. Which Philip Rivers shows up?
In 2012, the veteran quarterback had a lousy season, one which led many (notably myself) to write him off as washed up. Rivers responded to the coaching regime change and gave Mike McCoy a MVP-caliber season, rallying the Chargers to an improbable playoff berth with a furious finish.
Season | Record | Completion % | Yards | YPA | TD/INT | QB Rating |
2012 | 7-9 | 64.1 | 3606 | 6.8 | 26/15 | 88.6 |
2013 | 9-7 | 69.5 | 4478 | 8.2 | 32/11 | 105.5 |
2014 | 9-7 | 66.5 | 4286 | 7.5 | 31/18 | 93.8 |
Last season sort of split the difference, though it was a year where he started strongly but tailed off badly. Five of his first six outings topped 100 on the QB Rating scale, but just one other 100+ game followed. His yards per attempt plummeted while also throwing 13 INTs in the final eight games. His 18 INTs on the season led the league.
Rivers is now 33 and remains one of the least mobile QBs in the league. His arm, really his whole body, looked tired last year. He’s been sacked over 120 times in the last three years and the pass protection in front of him doesn’t look much improved. Rivers has expressed reticence at signing a new contract with the uncertain future of the team. None of that portends well.
I refuse to write him off, however. I did that two years ago and he made me look foolish. He’s got arguably his best supporting cast in years with Gordon behind him and three very good wideouts in Malcom Floyd, Keenan Allen and newcomer Stevie Johnson, who upgrades the slot position dramatically. Ladarius Green is a skilled receiver at tight end, and Antonio Gates still plays well despite being in his mid-30s. This is arguably one of the deepest skill position groups in the NFL. With Kellen Clemens as his backup, there is no internal threat to usurp Rivers anytime soon.
Last year’s stat line is eminently replicable, hopefully with a better TD/INT ratio and a few less sacks. If Rivers posts those totals again, these Chargers will be in the thick of the AFC West race and stand a decent shot at a playoff berth. If he’s the same Rivers who finished last year and that we saw in 2012, 9 wins is going to be a real challenge.
For a nice insider take on Rivers and his contractual situation, check out this solid piece at Bolts From the Blue by John Gennaro.
4. Where is the depth?
The starting 22 here is one of the best in the league. Between the offensive skill positions, the secondary and even the lines, San Diego has a group of starters capable of winning playoff games.
Problems arise if the Chargers have to tap into the reserves. Other than running back, tight end and perhaps inside linebacker, the backups are either untested or failed their trials in bigger roles. Wide receiver is a good example. Allen, Floyd and Johnson form a dynamic, well-conceived blend of talents. Jacoby Jones is the next man up with his nine receptions in Baltimore a year ago. He’s a special teams player good for one fluky offensive outburst a season where he actually catches a couple of those deep throws which take advantage of his blazing speed. Beyond him? Lanky Dontrelle Inman and Rams castoff Austin Pettis do not inspire confidence.
The defensive backs are another good example. Eric Weddle is one of the best safeties in the league, probably the best all-around. He’s a worthy All-Pro with a strong beard game to boot. Jahleel Addae is a perfectly adequate starter next to him, a little weak in coverage range but not a detriment. Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett should be a very solid corner tandem, provided Verrett can return to health and play the way he did as a rookie before getting hurt. I do like third-rounder Craig Mager to emerge as a quality nickel back in time, though he might need a year or two to get up to that level. But Patrick Robinson is the definition of toast as the ostensible outside starter opposite Flowers (with the shorter Verrett inside). After Mager it’s a gaggle of street free agents and practice squad refugees. The same is true at safety after Darrell Stuckey, who is an acceptable third safety but would be over his head pressed into greater service.
If Rivers goes down…oh the horror. The same is true of any interior lineman on either side of the ball. Given the relative weakness of the defensive line starters, dropping to Mitch Unrein or Tenny Palepoi for extended reps could be catastrophic. Rookie Denzel Perryman is a boom/bust player at inside linebacker; he was my 114th-rated player in the draft but the Chargers grabbed him in the second round. He’s the next man up if Donald Butler or Manti Teo go down.
In short, if these Chargers are blessed with good health they have a real chance as a contender. If the injury bug is virulent, they’re in a lot worse shape than most potential playoff teams.
5. Is this the end of the Chargers in San Diego?
The writing is on the wall. Unless something generally unexpected happens, the Chargers sure appear set to depart San Diego and move north to Los Angeles, perhaps as soon as the 2016 season. Sigh.
There is one of two ways these Chargers can handle the unfortunate situation. They can rally around themselves and give the San Diego faithful one last great hurrah, feeding off the desperate energy of the local fan base. Or they can realize their relative insignificance as mere pawns in the grand money grab that is the NFL and suffer their fate quietly, accepting the upheaval with a resigned sallowness. That’s what happened in Cleveland with those Browns, a similarly talented maybe-contender that just couldn’t handle the weight of the world.
Which way this team goes is hard to predict. Given the uncertainty with Rivers’ future, which is in no small part caused by the franchise location uncertainty, it’s hard to see them achieving full potential. Then again, the roster is strong in a winnable division and Rivers has a history of pulling off surprise greatness. We’ll have to watch and see how this question gets answered. As someone who lived through a gut-wrenching franchise departure in Cleveland, I really hope the great fans in San Diego get a glorious parting gift.
Forecast
Given the uncertainty in San Diego, it’s hard to see this talented but flawed team finding the success the fans covet. The collapse at the end of last season does not inspire confidence, even though I do like the offensive upgrades.
The schedule does not play in their favor. The early games are filled with contests against what figure to be strong defenses, from the opener against Detroit to the Week 4 contest against Cleveland. Road trips to returning playoff teams in Green Bay, Baltimore and Cincinnati look tough, and the divisional battles are always an adventure in the AFC West. The final two games are on the road at Oakland and Denver.
Would a 10-6 finish and a playoff berth surprise me? Not in the least; the potential is absolutely here for an AFC West crown and a playoff win or two. Unfortunately I just don’t see the defense being able to live up to that potential. These Chargers finish a disappointing 7-9.