Charlotte 2014 Picks Watch Thread

[BlackOutBuzz]

Nice! Small victory but that pick could've been 26th.

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[BigSlam]

So we traded the 16th pick for Tyrus Thomas?

That's not too bad and was worth the gamble. It's not like it was a top 10 pick - or worse, a top 5 pick.

[fatlever]

can anyone work out the math on the chance that a team in the 9-14 range will jump into the top 4, thus pushing the pistons pick back to us at 9?

i came up with 0.195% chance that we could end up with the 9th pick in the draft. somebody check my math.

[MasterIchiro]

We've talked about trading up but how about trading down?

If the Pistons pick gets pushed to 9 would you trade it to the Suns for picks 14 & 18?

I think I would.

Bobcats take James Young and Zach LaVine.

[BlackOutBuzz]

You can only move up into the top three, and if you add up all the teams' odds behind Detroit it comes out to 19.5% (which is what I assume you meant).

Edit: We did have a Detroit fan mention the odds were like 17.6%, though I'm not sure where he got that number.

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[HornetJail]

can anyone work out the math on the chance that a team in the 9-14 range will jump into the top 4, thus pushing the pistons pick back to us at 9?

i came up with 0.195% chance that we could end up with the 9th pick in the draft. somebody check my math.

If we didn't already have like 12 rotation players already worth playing, I probably would, but I'd rather trade it to move up. Any way to get into the top 6 minus sans giving up Kemba, MKG, or Al is a done deal IMO.

[BlackOutBuzz]

I do wonder what would be a better trade asset if we were to make a move THIS draft. The ninth pick, or the top one protected pick for next season.

I'm kinda leaning toward the ninth pick being more valuable at first. I could see a team being more willing to move down a couple slots to ninth before I could see one completely giving up a pick this year for one next. Plus getting it this year makes it a known commodity.

Now, of course, post-draft the pick would instantly be worth more than anyone we could use the pick on this year. So the question becomes - with the team in win-now mode - would it be better to get the pick this year and hopefully use it to move up, or would it be better to NOT get it and wait for next year or perhaps trade for a current player?

I think for now I'd rather get it now, but either side has merit.

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[MasterIchiro]

It's hard to know without identifying the player targeted for selection if we trade up.

I would think with Zeller's play, Randle is out of the equation. I would think Parker, Wiggins and Embiid are off limits. Maybe Exum? It's tough to know for sure. And again, if we are in win-now mode who impacts the game more in Big Al's next 2 seasons, Shaun Livingston, a known commodity, or Exum, a wild card?

I'd rather just sign Shaun Livingston and trade the top-1 protected pick for a known commodity like Gordon Hayward. Chances are we wouldn't be able to move all the way up to get Exum even if we do get lucky and get the pick at 9. So assuming 9 is the best we can do, would you rather have McDermott, a wild card or Hayward, the known commodity?

Once again I think you go with the known commodity as Hayward has played well with Al Jefferson and likely will impact the game more in the next 2 years of Big Al than McDermott.

I think you can have your cake and eat it too by signing Livingston and getting Exum production from there and trading the pick for Hayward and getting McDermott production there.

Again, this considers we are in win-now mode with only 2 years remaining on Al Jefferson's deal. There are no rookies on the board capable of playing major roles in a top contender in the East within 2 years, maybe not even Jabari Parker.

[SpearNMgicHelmt]

You can only move up into the top three, and if you add up all the teams' odds behind Detroit it comes out to 19.5% (which is what I assume you meant).

Edit: We did have a Detroit fan mention the odds were like 17.6%, though I'm not sure where he got that number.

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I get about 15.6% myself, (via reducing that 19.5% by multiplying it by the odds of Detroit not moving up too) but I'm seeing that 17.6% number mentioned a couple of places, so I must be looking at it wrong. Maybe some of the percentages of possible outcomes overlap to make it more complicated.

http://www.detroitbadboys.com/2014/4/17/5624022/2014-nba-draft-pistons-have-82-4-percent-chance-of-keeping-their
http://www.freep.com/article/20140417/SPORTS03/304170093/2014-nba-draft-lottery-odds

[JDR720]

we couldn't trade up much, the teams at the top of the draft more than likely tanked their way up there so they will want a lot more than the pick is worth to justify the tanking, maybe a team with 2 picks is more likely like Orlando, Philly and Phoenix, most likely would be Phoenix we can trade our portland pick + a player maybe McBob? to them for the 14th pick

[jakenc]

I think if we had any chance at moving into Exum/Randle/other non-top3 guys territory we should do it. I would love Exum, although he doesn't do much for our shooting woes. Still, he's bound to better than Hendo (probably not immediately) and he'll be on a rookie deal. Plus, he and MKG could grow into one hell of a wing combo. But either way, I doubt that opportunity will present itself.

[BlackOutBuzz]

You can only move up into the top three, and if you add up all the teams' odds behind Detroit it comes out to 19.5% (which is what I assume you meant).

Edit: We did have a Detroit fan mention the odds were like 17.6%, though I'm not sure where he got that number.

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I get about 15.6% myself, (via reducing that 19.5% by multiplying it by the odds of Detroit not moving up too) but I'm seeing that 17.6% number mentioned a couple of places, so I must be looking at it wrong. Maybe some of the percentages of possible outcomes overlap to make it more complicated.

http://www.detroitbadboys.com/2014/4/17/5624022/2014-nba-draft-pistons-have-82-4-percent-chance-of-keeping-their
http://www.freep.com/article/20140417/SPORTS03/304170093/2014-nba-draft-lottery-odds

See I don't get that, the odds of someone behind them jumping is 19.5%, so I don't understand where the 17.6% comes from unless they round the decimals differently.

As for subtracting their odds, you shouldn't have to do that since their odds of keeping it are opposite the 19.5%, which would be 80.5%.

Not sure what I'm missing.

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[SpearNMgicHelmt]

You can only move up into the top three, and if you add up all the teams' odds behind Detroit it comes out to 19.5% (which is what I assume you meant).

Edit: We did have a Detroit fan mention the odds were like 17.6%, though I'm not sure where he got that number.

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I get about 15.6% myself, (via reducing that 19.5% by multiplying it by the odds of Detroit not moving up too) but I'm seeing that 17.6% number mentioned a couple of places, so I must be looking at it wrong. Maybe some of the percentages of possible outcomes overlap to make it more complicated.

http://www.detroitbadboys.com/2014/4/17/5624022/2014-nba-draft-pistons-have-82-4-percent-chance-of-keeping-their
http://www.freep.com/article/20140417/SPORTS03/304170093/2014-nba-draft-lottery-odds

See I don't get that, the odds of someone behind them jumping is 19.5%, so I don't understand where the 17.6% comes from unless they round the decimals differently.

As for subtracting their odds, you shouldn't have to do that since their odds of keeping it are opposite the 19.5%, which would be 80.5%.

Not sure what I'm missing.

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For us to get the pick we don't just need to know the chances of a team below Detroit bumping themselves up to a top-3. We need to know the chances of a team below Detroit bumping themselves up *and* Detroit not moving up too.

For instance, it doesn't help our cause for Phoenix to move up to number one if Detroit has also moved up to number three. Some of the scenarios where those teams below Detroit move up are including outcomes of Detroit being there as well.

[BlackOutBuzz]

Ah that makes sense, I guess I just figured those odds were already included.

So, we have to consider that they have a 10% chance of moving into the top three, in addition to the 19.5% chance that someone behind them moves into the top three.

So to get the odds odd them NOT getting their pick, we'd have to multiply the odds of them not moving up (90%) by the odds of someone jumping them (19.5%).

.9 * .195 = .1755 or 17.55%

Well I'll be damned...

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[BlackOutBuzz]

Per WT: "Lakers may be willing to trade 6th pick"

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/23 ... For-Lakers

The Los Angeles Lakers may have their highest pick in over 30 years this year, but they appear interested in trading it away.

"I think there’s a possibility," said Kupchak when asked about a trade of the pick.

The Lakers may look to accelerate their rebuilding efforts around Kobe Bryant and their cap space.

Obviously seems as though the Lakers would want to net a superstar (Kevin Love?), but I'd love to be proven wrong. If we land the ninth pick I wonder what it'd take to move up? I'm sure we'd send them Hendo

[SpearNMgicHelmt]

Ah that makes sense, I guess I just figured those odds were already included.

So, we have to consider that they have a 10% chance of moving into the top three, in addition to the 19.5% chance that someone behind them moves into the top three.

So to get the odds odd them NOT getting their pick, we'd have to multiply the odds of them not moving up (90%) by the odds of someone jumping them (19.5%).

.9 * .195 = .1755 or 17.55%

Well I'll be damned...

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Aha! There you go. We could totally get it if we eat enough fish sticks.

[JDR720]

Ah that makes sense, I guess I just figured those odds were already included.

So, we have to consider that they have a 10% chance of moving into the top three, in addition to the 19.5% chance that someone behind them moves into the top three.

So to get the odds odd them NOT getting their pick, we'd have to multiply the odds of them not moving up (90%) by the odds of someone jumping them (19.5%).

.9 * .195 = .1755 or 17.55%

Well I'll be damned...

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Aha! There you go. We could totally get it if we eat enough fish sticks.

I believe we would have to eat 18.5 servings (or almost 2 boxes} of Mrs.Pauls fish sticks, how i figured this out

17.55% changed into a whole number 1755 divided by 95 (grams of fish in serving) = 18.5 servings, and we would have to eat this before the lotto, i hope we don't die

[BeesWax]

Ah that makes sense, I guess I just figured those odds were already included.

So, we have to consider that they have a 10% chance of moving into the top three, in addition to the 19.5% chance that someone behind them moves into the top three.

So to get the odds odd them NOT getting their pick, we'd have to multiply the odds of them not moving up (90%) by the odds of someone jumping them (19.5%).

.9 * .195 = .1755 or 17.55%

Well I'll be damned...

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Actually the odds are fluid and influenced by who gets picked where. If the first two teams go one and two then the odds jump a bit as there are way fewer options of who gets picked. The Pistons odds would jump too though.

[BlackOutBuzz]

Obviously, but those are the odds as of now pre-lottery.

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[doc.end]

You can only move up into the top three, and if you add up all the teams' odds behind Detroit it comes out to 19.5% (which is what I assume you meant).

Edit: We did have a Detroit fan mention the odds were like 17.6%, though I'm not sure where he got that number.

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Seems roughly about right. http://www.tankathon.com/ 19.5% that 9-14th place moves into top 3 multiplied by (100 - 9.9 =) 90,1 (Det's chance to get into top 3). That got him 17,57%

There should be some overlaps for cases when more than one team leapfrogs them etc. I am lazy to do the math