Fun with Stats!!!

[yosemiteben]

We looked quite solid last night offensively with the first unit. I don't buy that we can't continue to improve on that side of the ball.

I also think it's silly to judge our first unit defense harshly when MKG has been out or injured most of the games so far.

[Benjamin Linus]

I wish Lance would be fine accepting a role off the bench. Still think our best starting lineup would be Al-Zeller-MKG-Neal-Kemba. Neal's arguably our second best scorer and our best shooter. Zeller gives us a little extra interior defense. The bench would be Biz-Marvin-PJ-Lance-Roberts. Which gives Lance three shooters around him and Biz who he seems to like playing with.

[yosemiteben]

Was playing with the defense dashboard on stats.nba.com comparing our bigs and was pretty surprised with the results. These numbers are a little bit skewed because (1) Cody largely has gotten to go against second string bigs, and (2) Biz has a relatively small sample size, but look at these defensive shooting %'s, arranged from best to worst:

3 pointers:
Cody - 20% on 2.0 attempts per game (15.9% below average)
Marvin - 40% on 1.4 attempts per game (4.5% above average)
Biz - 50% on 0.6 attempts per game (12.9% above average)
Al - 53.8% on 0.9 attempts per game (18.9% above average)

2 pointers:
Cody - 45.7% on 6.7 attempts per game (3.4% below average)
Al - 52.3% on 12.4 attempts per game (2.5% above average, surprisingly not that bad)
Marvin - 57% on 6.6 attempts per game (7.4% above average)
Biz - 58.8% on 4.9 attempts per game (5.2% above average, surprisingly bad)

Shots within 6 feet:
Cody - 60% on 2.5 attempts per game (0.3% above average)
Al - 60.3% on 4.5 attempts per game (0.8% above average, again surprisingly not that bad)
Biz - 66.7% on 2.6 attempts per game (1.2% above average)
Marvin - 82.1% (!!!!) on 2.8 attempts per game (22.2% above average)

Shots within 10 feet:
Cody - 54% on 3.6 attempts per game (1.1% below average)
Marvin - 72% on 3.6 attempts per game (17.2% above average)
Al - 53.3% on 7.6 attempts per game (1.1% below average, WTF Al actually is decent one on one)
Biz - 53.8% on 3.7 attempts per game (5.6% below average)

2 pointers greater than 15 feet:
Cody - 27.4% on 4.4 attempts per game (12.0% below average)
Marvin - 38.5% on 3.7 attempts per game (0.9% below average)
Al - 53.4% on 4.1 attempts per game (13.5% above average - Al generally doesn't even contest)
Biz - 63.6% on 1.6 attempts per game (26.5% above average, WTF)

I know Biz can be a great help defender, but he is in the bottom two in every category. Really did not expect that.

Very pleasantly surprised with Zeller, and also pretty surprised that Al's numbers aren't terrible.

Now I'm curious to see how our guards stack up. Will get around to that later.

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

I was interested to see what those old Orlando teams that Cliff seems to be wanting to recreate had done stat wise. I also wanted to take looks at the current Charlotte, Chicago and Detroit teams to see if there were any patterns.

The thing that stood out as a difference was 3 point attempts per game. The really good Orlando teams with Howard attempted nearly 10 more 3s per game than the current Hornets do. Red flag right? However I did some digging. Chicago and Detroit are taking more 3s than the Hornets … but not 10 more. Chicago shoots 2 more per game and Detroit 4. That said the Hornets are the 5th worst team in the league at this point on 3 point attempt rate. They also have a rather large percentage of long 2s as a staple. Only the Knicks, TWolves, and Lakers take a higher percentage of really long 2s per game. My gut feeling here? Today teams defend the 3 point shot a lot better than they did in the past. This is one way in which the league has evolved since the Orlando heyday. My in game observation is that I saw several instances where a potential 3 point shot by a Charlotte player was challenged and the response was that the player dribbled to avoid the closeout and then took a long 2. My perception is that the players are setting up to take the shots that Cliff wants … but when challenged on them they aren’t always doing what I would perceive to be the correct next step by passing to another open shooter or driving strong. Compared to last year the team is actually slightly worse when it comes to taking long 2s, but not by much.

Another thing I’m noticing is that both Detroit and Charlotte are really bad in terms of their Free Throws per FG attempt. Chicago is better at this though. I’ve got to think that this is related both to what I talked about above in settling for shots … and that Al’s offense historically doesn’t generate a lot of FT attempts per shot when compared to other some other big men. Interestingly last year’s team was actually a lot better at this part of the game.

Cliff himself has talked about the best possessions being ones where the other team fouls, followed by 3 point shots and shots at the rim. So the team isn’t getting fouled much (Clippers game being the outlier) and they aren’t taking the shots the Cliff himself has said are the best (I’ve glossed over rim shots, but they aren’t good there either). So why? Is the Alfense bad, is the team poorly built, or is this simply bad execution so far early in the season? Honestly I’m starting to think it’s a bit of all of them.

[Radu_Hornets]

Was playing with the defense dashboard on stats.nba.com comparing our bigs and was pretty surprised with the results. These numbers are a little bit skewed because (1) Cody largely has gotten to go against second string bigs, and (2) Biz has a relatively small sample size, but look at these defensive shooting %'s, arranged from best to worst:

3 pointers:
Cody - 20% on 2.0 attempts per game (15.9% below average)
Marvin - 40% on 1.4 attempts per game (4.5% above average)
Biz - 50% on 0.6 attempts per game (12.9% above average)
Al - 53.8% on 0.9 attempts per game (18.9% above average)

2 pointers:
Cody - 45.7% on 6.7 attempts per game (3.4% below average)
Al - 52.3% on 12.4 attempts per game (2.5% above average, surprisingly not that bad)
Marvin - 57% on 6.6 attempts per game (7.4% above average)
Biz - 58.8% on 4.9 attempts per game (5.2% above average, surprisingly bad)

Shots within 6 feet:
Cody - 60% on 2.5 attempts per game (0.3% above average)
Al - 60.3% on 4.5 attempts per game (0.8% above average, again surprisingly not that bad)
Biz - 66.7% on 2.6 attempts per game (1.2% above average)
Marvin - 82.1% (!!!!) on 2.8 attempts per game (22.2% above average)

Shots within 10 feet:
Cody - 54% on 3.6 attempts per game (1.1% below average)
Marvin - 72% on 3.6 attempts per game (17.2% above average)
Al - 53.3% on 7.6 attempts per game (1.1% below average, WTF Al actually is decent one on one)
Biz - 53.8% on 3.7 attempts per game (5.6% below average)

2 pointers greater than 15 feet:
Cody - 27.4% on 4.4 attempts per game (12.0% below average)
Marvin - 38.5% on 3.7 attempts per game (0.9% below average)
Al - 53.4% on 4.1 attempts per game (13.5% above average - Al generally doesn't even contest)
Biz - 63.6% on 1.6 attempts per game (26.5% above average, WTF)

I know Biz can be a great help defender, but he is in the bottom two in every category. Really did not expect that.

Very pleasantly surprised with Zeller, and also pretty surprised that Al's numbers aren't terrible.

Now I'm curious to see how our guards stack up. Will get around to that later.

I was thinking about this the other day... And trying to figure out why bizz figures are so low. And does it take into account only the opponent or also the guards who attack the basket for example?

[BeesWax]

Was playing with the defense dashboard on stats.nba.com comparing our bigs and was pretty surprised with the results. These numbers are a little bit skewed because (1) Cody largely has gotten to go against second string bigs, and (2) Biz has a relatively small sample size, but look at these defensive shooting %'s, arranged from best to worst:

3 pointers:
Cody - 20% on 2.0 attempts per game (15.9% below average)
Marvin - 40% on 1.4 attempts per game (4.5% above average)
Biz - 50% on 0.6 attempts per game (12.9% above average)
Al - 53.8% on 0.9 attempts per game (18.9% above average)

2 pointers:
Cody - 45.7% on 6.7 attempts per game (3.4% below average)
Al - 52.3% on 12.4 attempts per game (2.5% above average, surprisingly not that bad)
Marvin - 57% on 6.6 attempts per game (7.4% above average)
Biz - 58.8% on 4.9 attempts per game (5.2% above average, surprisingly bad)

Shots within 6 feet:
Cody - 60% on 2.5 attempts per game (0.3% above average)
Al - 60.3% on 4.5 attempts per game (0.8% above average, again surprisingly not that bad)
Biz - 66.7% on 2.6 attempts per game (1.2% above average)
Marvin - 82.1% (!!!!) on 2.8 attempts per game (22.2% above average)

Shots within 10 feet:
Cody - 54% on 3.6 attempts per game (1.1% below average)
Marvin - 72% on 3.6 attempts per game (17.2% above average)
Al - 53.3% on 7.6 attempts per game (1.1% below average, WTF Al actually is decent one on one)
Biz - 53.8% on 3.7 attempts per game (5.6% below average)

2 pointers greater than 15 feet:
Cody - 27.4% on 4.4 attempts per game (12.0% below average)
Marvin - 38.5% on 3.7 attempts per game (0.9% below average)
Al - 53.4% on 4.1 attempts per game (13.5% above average - Al generally doesn't even contest)
Biz - 63.6% on 1.6 attempts per game (26.5% above average, WTF)

I know Biz can be a great help defender, but he is in the bottom two in every category. Really did not expect that.

Very pleasantly surprised with Zeller, and also pretty surprised that Al's numbers aren't terrible.

Now I'm curious to see how our guards stack up. Will get around to that later.

I was thinking about this the other day... And trying to figure out why bizz figures are so low. And does it take into account only the opponent or also the guards who attack the basket for example?

I think some of it can have to do with when players attack. Is Biz getting caught out of position covering for someone else and just hustling back to at least give it an attempt. Also looking at Al's numbers players are completely willing to attack him. People are going to miss shots no matter what so when they are selective against a shot blocker the numbers may look better than when they attack a weak defender.

Do they only go at Biz when he has had to help therefore upping their chances? Do they attack Al every chance they get? Sometimes these numbers do not tell the whole story. If they attempt shots from further out because they are scared of Biz then he has accomplished a goal. If you look at NBA.com on and off court stats those are interesting too.

[JDR720]

We have given up an average of 24.9ppg in the 4th quarter and scored an average of 22.4, which actually isn't as bad as i thought

[yosemiteben]

We have given up an average of 24.9ppg in the 4th quarter and scored an average of 22.4, which actually isn't as bad as i thought

Yeah, I would've guessed at least a five point spread.

[yosemiteben]

I think some of it can have to do with when players attack. Is Biz getting caught out of position covering for someone else and just hustling back to at least give it an attempt. Also looking at Al's numbers players are completely willing to attack him. People are going to miss shots no matter what so when they are selective against a shot blocker the numbers may look better than when they attack a weak defender.

How does the fact that players are more likely to attack Al diminish the evidence that when they do so they finish a lower percentage of the time than when they attack Biz?

You may have a point about him attempting more help defense, but again that doesn't diminish the fact that he has been ineffective.

Do they only go at Biz when he has had to help therefore upping their chances? Do they attack Al every chance they get?

I don't know where to find hard stats where that is tracked, but I disagree with the notion that teams avoid Biz when he is in.

Look, last year Biz only allowed a FG% of 40.1% within six feet on 2.6 attempts. This season he is allowing a FG% of 61.5% within six feet on 2.4 attempts. How do you explain that disparity?

2014-15
2013-14

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

He is a trying to emulate Al's team defense?

In all seriousness I think that he's out of position on D a lot this year. Not sure why. Could be that the guards aren't doing as well and he has to help more ... Or it could be that he isn't lingering in the post as much.

[yosemiteben]

He is a trying to emulate Al's team defense?

In all seriousness I think that he's out of position on D a lot this year. Not sure why. Could be that the guards aren't doing as well and he has to help more ... Or it could be that he isn't lingering in the post as much.

I'm not sure either, but I do find his defensive stats to be very surprising. I think most of us were aware of his elite rim protection last year, and I think that may be coloring how we have viewed him this year. He has not been an elite defender. Even if those stats are dilluted because they incorporate his help defense on defenders that are doing a worse job, it is tough to make the argument that a guy giving up 60% on shots within six feet is playing like an elite rim protector.

[yosemiteben]

Check out the touches and possessions stats over on stats.nba.com, pretty interesting stuff. Kemba Walker leads the league in front court touches per game at 86.2 touches per game and is third in the league in overall touches per game at 96.2 per game in 34 mpg. Lance Stephenson gets 64.7 touches per game and 57.2 front court touches per game in 33.2 mpg.

[HornetJail]

We have given up an average of 24.9ppg in the 4th quarter and scored an average of 22.4, which actually isn't as bad as i thought

How much do we score in 4th quarters? 12 points?

[BeesWax]

I think some of it can have to do with when players attack. Is Biz getting caught out of position covering for someone else and just hustling back to at least give it an attempt. Also looking at Al's numbers players are completely willing to attack him. People are going to miss shots no matter what so when they are selective against a shot blocker the numbers may look better than when they attack a weak defender.

How does the fact that players are more likely to attack Al diminish the evidence that when they do so they finish a lower percentage of the time than when they attack Biz?

You may have a point about him attempting more help defense, but again that doesn't diminish the fact that he has been ineffective.

Do they only go at Biz when he has had to help therefore upping their chances? Do they attack Al every chance they get?

I don't know where to find hard stats where that is tracked, but I disagree with the notion that teams avoid Biz when he is in.

Look, last year Biz only allowed a FG% of 40.1% within six feet on 2.6 attempts. This season he is allowing a FG% of 61.5% within six feet on 2.4 attempts. How do you explain that disparity?

2014-15
2013-14

This is the heart of the problem with defensive stats. I am going to assume these numbers are for shots a player challenges while in the game. If that is the case then those stats will always hurt players like Biz and Zeller because they work to challenge shots. Al takes a position on defense and only challenges people who come within his area. If a guard gets beat Biz, whether he has a chance or not, cuts across and tries to help out, while Al just gives up the open layup. Biz is getting credited with defending a shot that likely goes in 80% of the time because of hustle while Al does not get hurt stat wise despite giving up 100% opportunities.

Almost all defensive stats are very hard to judge because of circumstance. Most are either based on shots contested or results of what happens as a team. One lazy player can look good at something because he only defends the shots that are easiest for him to defend. Our perimeter defense has struggled this year which may be an influencing factor in Biz having to help defend more in giving up shots at the rim. This may change when MKG comes back. If Al came across to help he isn't going to jump back at his man if the pass is made. Biz will try even if there is next to know chance he will get there.

Trying to look at these stats and assume anything off of them is crazy since so much of defense is help. If Biz played a game like Al does he would be a much worse player and his numbers on defense would be astonishing. If he never helped anyone else and only picked his spot to defend other teams would just choose to go other ways. You have to watch the games and see all the times nobody was there to hedge a screen and all the times there was a wide open layup with a player on the other side of the rim not trying to stop it. Those stats go unassigned yet show how absolutely terrible a player is.

[BeesWax]

He is a trying to emulate Al's team defense?

In all seriousness I think that he's out of position on D a lot this year. Not sure why. Could be that the guards aren't doing as well and he has to help more ... Or it could be that he isn't lingering in the post as much.

He is jumping around and trying to help more and teams are moving the ball around him. Our team defense has been terrible this year. Teams are drawing him out with screens that he has to help on as well. Since Biz will move around teams are clearing him away from the rim and attacking while he tries to recover.

Speights for instance was setting screens and hitting elbow jumpers while Biz hedged the screens. Against Al there was no hedge but Speights still got an open jumper or Curry had an open path to the basket.

[yosemiteben]

This is the heart of the problem with defensive stats. I am going to assume these numbers are for shots a player challenges while in the game. If that is the case then those stats will always hurt players like Biz and Zeller because they work to challenge shots.

Yet last year Biz had a 20% lower percentage allowed than he does this year. If he is challenging more shots, he is not affecting them.

Trying to look at these stats and assume anything off of them is crazy since so much of defense is help. If Biz played a game like Al does he would be a much worse player and his numbers on defense would be astonishing.

No one on here is calling Al one of the best help defenders and rim protectors in the NBA, but we've been pretty liberal with throwing those labels at Biz. Those percentages allowed do not support that type of claim.

If he never helped anyone else and only picked his spot to defend other teams would just choose to go other ways. You have to watch the games and see all the times nobody was there to hedge a screen and all the times there was a wide open layup with a player on the other side of the rim not trying to stop it. Those stats go unassigned yet show how absolutely terrible a player is.

Then maybe Biz should just stay in the paint. He is giving up 52% from 5 - 9 feet. Al is giving up 35.9% on 7.1 attempts per game from that range.

Your entire argument is that Al's numbers are artificially deflated because he doesn't contest enough shots. If that were true, one would expect that his stats would reflect less FGA's against him. In fact, the FGAs against him in the 5 - 9 foot range is tied with Cousins for most attempts in the NBA against centers, so that 35.9% rate is pretty fantastic. He only has about 0.5 - 1.5 FGAs less from five feet (15.9 per game) than guys like Hibbert (16.5), Asik (17.4), Drummond (17.3), Noah (17.9), and Jordan (17.6). To verify, just play with the sorting here.

ETA: Surprising comparison for ya...

FG% allowed from 5 - 9 feet:
Al Jefferson - 35.9% on 7.1 attempts per game
Anthony Davis - 35.0% on 6.7 attempts per game

FG% allowed from 10 - 14 feet:
Al Jefferson - 35.8% on 4.5 attempts per game
Anthony Davis - 34.3% on 4.5 attempts per game

FG% allowed from 15 - 19 feet:
Al Jefferson - 47.1% on 11.7 attempts per game
Anthony Davis - 40.5% on 8.7 attempts per game

By contrast, ADavis has way more FGA's within five feet and holds shooters to less than 60% (shocker).

[BeesWax]

This is the heart of the problem with defensive stats. I am going to assume these numbers are for shots a player challenges while in the game. If that is the case then those stats will always hurt players like Biz and Zeller because they work to challenge shots.

Yet last year Biz had a 20% lower percentage allowed than he does this year. If he is challenging more shots, he is not affecting them.

Biz is getting credited with defending a shot that likely goes in 80% of the time because of hustle while Al does not get hurt stat wise despite giving up 100% opportunities.

So he actually is playing like an elite rim protector and help defender, and the fact that he gives up 65% FG% within six feet of the basket is because he hustles too much? I just don't buy that.

Trying to look at these stats and assume anything off of them is crazy since so much of defense is help. If Biz played a game like Al does he would be a much worse player and his numbers on defense would be astonishing.

No one on here is calling Al one of the best help defenders and rim protectors in the NBA, but we've been pretty liberal with throwing those labels at Biz. Those percentages allowed do not support that type of claim.

If he never helped anyone else and only picked his spot to defend other teams would just choose to go other ways. You have to watch the games and see all the times nobody was there to hedge a screen and all the times there was a wide open layup with a player on the other side of the rim not trying to stop it. Those stats go unassigned yet show how absolutely terrible a player is.

Then maybe Biz should just stay in the paint. He is giving up 52% from 5 - 9 feet. Al is giving up 35.9% on 7.1 attempts per game from that range.

Your entire argument is that Al's numbers are artificially deflated because he doesn't contest enough shots. If that were true, one would expect that his stats would reflect less FGA's against him. In fact, the FGAs against him in the 5 - 9 foot range is tied with Cousins for most attempts in the NBA against centers, so that 35.9% rate is pretty fantastic. He only has about 0.5 - 1.5 FGAs less from five feet (15.9 per game) than guys like Hibbert (16.5), Asik (17.4), Drummond (17.3), Noah (17.9), and Jordan (17.6).

Biz should likely stay in the paint more. Our team as a whole has been very porous on defense and both Biz and Zeller have been running around trying to help make up for that.

You don't have to buy anything it is true. If Biz didn't try to get in on plays that he had little to no chance at stopping his number would look a lot better. How many times have you seen Biz start on his man then peel off to stop a driver only to see him drop the pass back off to his man. What does he do then? He jumps from where he is and tries to swipe at the ball to see if he can cause a missed shot. Has Al ever done that? No. Biz gets plays that count against him because he gives effort those types of plays don't hurt Al because he is to lazy to even try to influence the shot. If it only works 1 out of every 5 times to cause a miss it is still better then the 100% Al gives up on the completely uncontested shot.

Al is lazy and only contests shots in his area when brought there by the other team. He has no range. If you want to use stats from NBA.com then Al travels 3 miles per 48 minutes to Biz's 3.3 or Zeller at 3.6. Al picks a spot plants there and doesn't move. There are only five people who play at least 12 minutes a game who travel less per 48 than Big Al.

Again I will say defense is team oriented and if you look at the way the team performs when the two are in you see a different story. Our team gives up better shooting percentages from less than 5 feet with Al in as compared to Biz also we give up better percentages to other teams from range. This could be that our backup guards are far superior defenders that our starters or that our starters have to help down to cover for Al or give up open jumpers of uncontested screens. These are all possibilities. Biz seems to get eaten up in the mid range game by other teams while Al loses for us inside and outside. This could be because Biz gives up more pick and pops because of hedging while Al gives up more layups if he does hedge, seldom, or wide open jumpers if he doesn't.

[BeesWax]

ETA: Surprising comparison for ya...

FG% allowed from 5 - 9 feet:
Al Jefferson - 35.9% on 7.1 attempts per game
Anthony Davis - 35.0% on 6.7 attempts per game

FG% allowed from 10 - 14 feet:
Al Jefferson - 35.8% on 4.5 attempts per game
Anthony Davis - 34.3% on 4.5 attempts per game

FG% allowed from 15 - 19 feet:
Al Jefferson - 47.1% on 11.7 attempts per game
Anthony Davis - 40.5% on 8.7 attempts per game

By contrast, ADavis has way more FGA's within five feet and holds shooters to less than 60% (shocker).

Way to compare him to somebody people are afraid to challenge. Davis' shots are down because people don't like to take it at him while Al's are down because he is no where near the shooter. Davis moves and contests shots all over the court while Al stays put and only contests what is brought to him.

What I would really like to know if the difference in uncontested shots for our team while Al is in the game vs when he is out. I would think from watching that number would be staggering in terms of difference per 48.

[EwingSweatsALot]

We have given up an average of 24.9ppg in the 4th quarter and scored an average of 22.4, which actually isn't as bad as i thought

I'll piggy back on this some.

Score Diff Breakdown by QTR

1Q
-2.39

2Q
-0.72

3Q
-2.44

4Q
-2.22

OT
2.50

So to even my surprise, the 4th quarter is our 3rd worst quarter. If you take a look at it compared to wins and losses though you see a major difference and how the average can be skewed.

In losses, the 4th quarter is our worst quarter by almost 2 points. We have a difference of -4.93 (-2.71 points worse than our average). In wins, the 4th quarter is our best quarter by 7 POINTS!! We have a difference of 7.25 (almost 9.5 points better than our average).

In close games we struggle worse than our average as well. In games that end in a point differential of 6 or less we are -3.33 in the 4th quarter. In games where the 4th quarter starts out with a 6 point differential or less between the two teams we are a -2.43 in the 4th quarter.

In our wonderful 9 game losing streak the 4th quarter is a -5.78 differential. Over the last 6 games we are a grand -8.7 in the 4th.

So overall the 4th quarter isn't that bad for us compared to the other quarters, but break it down a little and you can see that it is a major problem for us. When we do well we win, and when we do poorly we we lose. We struggle in the 4th in close games. Only scoring 21.4 points in games decided by 6 points or less. We have been awful over this 9 game stretch in the 4th as well.

WE HAVE BEEN LEADING AT THE END OF THE 3RD QUARTER 7 TIMES THIS YEAR AND WE ARE 1 AND EFFING 6 IN THOSE GAMES!!

The only game we won was the Miami game and they still outscored us in the 4th quarter.

I need to stop looking at this teams stats, it makes me hate this team more and more each time I do.

[yosemiteben]

Way to compare him to somebody people are afraid to challenge. Davis' shots are down because people don't like to take it at him while Al's are down because he is no where near the shooter.

Did you miss the part where I said Al has the most shots taken against him in the 5 - 9 foot range than any other center in the NBA? Look at the top 12 in that range - Cousins, Dwight, Noah, ADavis, Pau, Deandre Jordan, Hibbert, Gasol. So Al is failing to contest lots of shots in the middle of the paint yet somehow has the most FGAs in that range of all NBA centers? Doesn't add up.

What I would really like to know if the difference in uncontested shots for our team while Al is in the game vs when he is out. I would think from watching that number would be staggering in terms of difference per 48.

I would be curious too, would be an interesting statistic. Honestly not sure how to construct it or where to find it though.