Will we make playoffs?

[GlenRiceARoni]

The 7 seed is already a very low probability.Getting The 6 seed is out of the question.

And I agree Toronto is by far our best matchup but we are almost certainly getting Cleveland at this point if we get in.

Vague + absolute certainty. Love it.

Seems like you haven't perused this thread.

Here is where he laid out the math in his predictions on a previous occasion (posted without comment): viewtopic.php?p=51796210#p51796210

I would expect a similar spit balled formula.

Don't forget to mention that I was right, yosemiteben. Very right.

The argument you made that we still had time to pass atlanta and Washington looks patently ridiculous now just two weeks later

-----------------------------------------------------------------------Hinkie has created a monster that will awaken in 2018 precisely 200 years after Mary Shelley published Frankenstein in 1818 A.D.
I don't think for a second this is coincidental as Hinkie is well educated and a fan of Classic British Lit

[Mystical Apples]

Yeah I mean the 7 seed is probably under 10%.

The 6 seed is probably like ~1%. 2% max.


MA, I was under the impression you had a math background based on your charts and stuff.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------Hinkie has created a monster that will awaken in 2018 precisely 200 years after Mary Shelley published Frankenstein in 1818 A.D.
I don't think for a second this is coincidental as Hinkie is well educated and a fan of Classic British Lit

Got it.

[316Hornets]

The fact that the Pacers, according to this model, only have an 80% chance of making the playoffs, I'd put the chance of us getting the 6th seed right around 15%. http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

This is with the assumption that Zeller is able to return relatively soon.

One interesting thing about the above model, Charlotte has a higher chance of winning the conference than all seeds lower than 4.

[yosemiteben]

Don't forget to mention that I was right, yosemiteben. Very right.

The argument you made that we still had time to pass atlanta and Washington looks patently ridiculous now just two weeks later

My issue was never with your prediction, only with the certainty you attributed to the "formula" you used and what I consider to be the arbitrary percentages that resulted. But I adequately expressed my views before and don't feel compelled to go down that road again.

[Mystical Apples]

The fact that the Pacers, according to this model, only have an 80% chance of making the playoffs, I'd put the chance of us getting the 6th seed right around 15%. http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

This is with the assumption that Zeller is able to return relatively soon.

Interesting. I noticed they too have Indiana with the EC's toughest remaining schedule. I have CHA with the easiest, they have 2nd easiest.

Indiana could very well finish 6th. Or they could turn into a pumpkin against that tough schedule.

[GlenRiceARoni]

Last one left turn out the lights.

Our playoff bid is essentially over after tonight.

We've fallen 2.5 games behind the #8 seed Detroit. And 1.5 games behind #9 Milwaukee.

But the real killer is slipping 0.5 games behind a white hot Miami team that we cant expect to outperform from here on out.

Its time to fully embrace the tank.




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-2014 2nd Rd Draft Pick
-2016 All ROOK 1st Team
-2017 All NBA 3rd Team
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-2019 All NBA 1st Team

[TheKingofSting]

We absolutely won't make the playoffs!


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[TheKingofSting]

Last one left turn out the lights.

Our playoff bid is essentially over after tonight.

We've fallen 2.5 games behind the #8 seed Detroit. And 1.5 games behind #9 Milwaukee.

But the real killer is slipping 0.5 games behind a white hot Miami team that we cant expect to outperform from here on out.

Its time to fully embrace the tank.




My Jokic Progression Signature
-2014 2nd Rd Draft Pick
-2016 All ROOK 1st Team
-2017 All NBA 3rd Team
-2018 All NBA 2nd Team
-2019 All NBA 1st Team

Don't forget our marvelous 11 game road losing streak with the next six on the road including going out West.


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[316Hornets]

Recent trades just made this road trip a whole lot easier. Sacramento and Lakers should be embracing the tank, which equals wins for us.

[Travers]

making the playoffs or not, this team is bound for average

[TheKingofSting]

Recent trades just made this road trip a whole lot easier. Sacramento and Lakers should be embracing the tank, which equals wins for us.

We can end the road losing streak vs the Kings now. If not we should just turn our equipment in.

The Lakers still have good guards without Lou and Z-Man will probably destroy us in the paint so not as confident about beating LAL.


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[GlenRiceARoni]

A quiet trade deadline and a loss Thursday night @detroit and we are basically mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
I invented the Piano Key Necktie.
What did Vivek get for Cousins?
NOTHING!

[fatlever]

A quiet trade deadline and a loss Thursday night @detroit and we are basically mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
I invented the Piano Key Necktie.
What did Vivek get for Cousins?
NOTHING!

[Math teacher voice]

Glen, please show your work.

[GlenRiceARoni]

Lol just flip to page 1 and 2 don't feel like doing it all again.

But being behind miami now is a big factor since they are riding the lightning

-------------------------------------------------------------------
I invented the Piano Key Necktie.
What did Vivek get for Cousins?
NOTHING!

[yosemiteben]

I continue to think you don't understand what "mathematically eliminated" means.

[GlenRiceARoni]

Yes i do. I use it to drive home the point that competing for the 8th seed is completely unrealistic.

Two weeks ago you were arguing we had a good shot at the 4 seed. Look how ridiculous that assertion looks now...

The major difference here is that det/chi arent very good so we arent completely out of the chase here.

Its much more realistic to catch a .500 team than a good one.

That said, Miami throws a wrench in our plans as they are clearly a good team right now.

Milwaukee just got their boy back too and losing jabari is a fairly minimal impact on them given their depth and ability to replace his overall production .

Id expect it to take exactly 40 or 41 games to nab the 8 seed given the math at the Allstar break.

So that makes it a simple math problem. What are the chances of us going 16-10 or 17-9 and winning the tiebreaker if we lose tonight?

Well for starters youd need to assure me that cody is healthy for all 26 games.

So id say its basically 0% but you can round up to 1-2% if you would like




-------------------------------------------------------------------
I invented the Piano Key Necktie.
What did Vivek get for Cousins?
NOTHING!

[Braggins]

Yes i do. I use it to drive home the point that competing for the 8th seed is completely unrealistic.

Two weeks ago you were arguing we had a good shot at the 4 seed. Look how ridiculous that assertion looks now...

The major difference here is that det/chi arent very good so we arent completely out of the chase here.

Its much more realistic to catch a .500 team than a good one.

That said, Miami throws a wrench in our plans as they are clearly a good team right now.

Milwaukee just got their boy back too and losing jabari is a fairly minimal impact on them given their depth and ability to replace his overall production .

Id expect it to take exactly 40 or 41 games to nab the 8 seed given the math at the Allstar break.

So that makes it a simple math problem. What are the chances of us going 16-10 or 17-9 and winning the tiebreaker if we lose tonight?

Well for starters youd need to assure me that cody is healthy for all 26 games.

So id say its basically 0% but you can round up to 1-2% if you would like




-------------------------------------------------------------------
I invented the Piano Key Necktie.
What did Vivek get for Cousins?
NOTHING!

Just say "virtually" or "all but" mathematically eliminated. "Mathematically eliminated" literally means its impossible regardless of our record, as in we could win out and still couldnt possibly make it. It isnt interchangeable with "highly unlikely". Its almost like you are intentionally misusing that term to spite Yosemiteben lol.

[yosemiteben]

Yes i do. I use it to drive home the point that competing for the 8th seed is completely unrealistic.

Even if that were true, "completely unrealistic" =/= "mathematically impossible" and the fact that you use them interchangeably is just silly. Again, you're the guy that talked down to us because you assumed we don't have an economics background. Let's at least get the concepts right.

Two weeks ago you were arguing we had a good shot at the 4 seed. Look how ridiculous that assertion looks now...

"Good shot" is ambiguous. I thought our odds were better than the 1% you gave us. My issue is with the certainty you attribute to your assumptions that enable you to generate these arbitrary percentages that you provide.

[fatlever]

Yeah, agreeing with Braggins and YB. While I might agree with you in the sense that the Hornets making the playoffs feels closer to being a longshot than probable, this argument comes down to semantics. Why not just say "Its highly unlikely the Hornets make the playoffs" than "basically mathematically eliminated". In sports the term "mathematically eliminated" has always removed probability out of the equation and simply reduced it down is it possible or not possible. There shouldn't be a "basically" in front of that term. It's a yes or no situation, with no room for interpretation. Either a team is mathematically eliminated or they are not.

Carry on.

[GlenRiceARoni]

The word "basically" is used to give us the 1 in a million "so you're sayin there's a chance" understanding .

The concept people are having difficulty grasping is that our team sucks and 3.5 games is a TON to make up when your team isnt good

-------------------------------------------------------------------
I invented the Piano Key Necktie.
What did Vivek get for Cousins?
NOTHING!