Will we make playoffs?

[yosemiteben]

Atlanta and Washington are both 16-6 in their last 22 games and we are 10-12. That's a quarter season's worth of data suggesting they are both going to play at a ~60 win team level from here on out while we play at a ~37 win level. That's an enormous disparity.

I mean, yeah if you assume they'll maintain a winning percentage they had during a hot streak and ignore the train wreck before that, they'll have a good record. Yet somehow this 60 win calibre Washington team hasn't won any more games than our lowly 37 win Hornets squad.

On top of that you make a three game lead sound trivial.

With 40 games left, it is.

If the Hawks completely bombed the 2nd half of the season and went .500 the rest of the way they'd be 45-37.

Completely bombing is not going .500. Bombing is losing 10 out of 11 like they did earlier this season. They are a Paul Millsap trade away from being a pretty crappy team.

Right now we appear closer to a bad team than a good one. A win over a reeling Toronto squad, a poor Portland team, and the hapless Nets isn't enough to sway me that our recent 1-7 and 6-12 skids were a fluke.

I assume you had the same view when ATL lost 10 out of 11 games back in November?

[Chapelchilla]

Yup.

And we'll progress through the 2nd round.


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I agree and I didn't sweat it during their usual January doldrums due to nagging injuries, the road trips and being tired. We played 6 out of 7 away. Now we are 3-0 at home in a row and will hopefully beat #5 WAS tonight. Do that and we are #5.
The Hornets are not good enough to win without effort or through multiple injuries to the core but as long as Kemba doesn't go down we will make the playoffs. I think we could sneak into 4th.
A first round match up with the Hawks as 4/5 seed could be in the cards and is fairly winnable.
We won't beat the Cavs in round 2 though.....
Go Hornets!

[GlenRiceARoni]

I mean, yeah if you assume they'll maintain a winning percentage they had during a hot streak and ignore the train wreck before that, they'll have a good record. Yet somehow this 60 win calibre Washington team hasn't won any more games than our lowly 37 win Hornets squad.

A hot streak?! Its TWENTY TWO GAMES. And yeah they're not way ahead of us yet because they started off like 2-8. They are clearly significantly better than us now. We have almost no chance of finishing ahead of them unless they suffer serious injuries...

On top of that you make a three game lead sound trivial.

With 40 games left, it is.

No, it absolutely is not. First of all we only have 37 games left. And three games is nowhere near trivial. Thats a huge lead, especially when the team in the lead is the significantly better team. I just showed you the basic math and it was ugly enough. If i took the time to do a statistical comparison based on team strength it would almost write our chances off completely. We need a miracle collapse or injuries.

If the Hawks completely bombed the 2nd half of the season and went .500 the rest of the way they'd be 45-37.

Completely bombing is not going .500. Bombing is losing 10 out of 11 like they did earlier this season. They are a Paul Millsap trade away from being a pretty crappy team.

No. A team that is 26-18 going .500 the rest of the way is completely bombing. What are the chances of them going worse than .500 over 38 games?! Pretty darn low.

Right now we appear closer to a bad team than a good one. A win over a reeling Toronto squad, a poor Portland team, and the hapless Nets isn't enough to sway me that our recent 1-7 and 6-12 skids were a fluke.

I assume you had the same view when ATL lost 10 out of 11 games back in November?

Do you really think their record in November is a better predictor than either their season long record or their Dec/Jan record?


I cant tell if youre trolling me or just trying to remain comfortably numb to our precarious situation here...

Most of us were expecting ~50 wins. We are the 3rd most disappointing team in the NBA pre all star break behind Por/Det. This is arguably the most disappointing season in franchise history. We're in serious danger of missing the playoffs completely after starting out 8-3 and remaining relatively healthy.

Our re-signings of Batum and Marvin look like dangerous contracts. MKG is looking like he wont outperform his deal. Lamb, Hawes, Belly are hogging up space with little production. Frank's rookie deal is being squandered.

We're just good enough to get crappy draft picks for the next several years. AND WE ARE CAPPED OUT!

We're well on our way to wasting the entire 4/ $48 miracle Kemba contract.



I went all Debbie Downer on you there just to show you we're a heck of a lot closer to disaster than we are success.

I think we absolutely have to make a move before the deadline. We simply can't afford to head into this offseason with no cap room, no good draft picks, an uncompetive roster full of expensive declining veterans.

Im okay with us sacrificing future assets to try to build a winner around this Kemba deal. We've got 3 more potential playoffs (including this year) so it would be dumb to blow our whole roster up IMO.

Another option is to try to unload Batum and use Lamb/Bellinelli as a cheap SG replacement. Another option is to unload both Batum and Marvin and use Frank as a cheap PF replacement. This would give us some serious cap room if we can take back expiring deals.

Would Philly do Batum and a 1st for Noel, and the Rodriguez/Henderson expiring deals?

They pick up a free first rounder, batum is a decent fit with Simmons, and they are going to lose Noel for nothing or get stuck paying him batum money anyway...






-----------------------------------------------------------------------Hinkie has created a monster that will awaken in 2018 precisely 200 years after Mary Shelley published Frankenstein in 1818 A.D.
I don't think for a second this is coincidental as Hinkie is well educated and a fan of Classic British Lit

[yosemiteben]

If you think it's practically impossible for us to make up a 3 game deficit over 37 games, probably best that I go ahead and exit this conversation.

I'll just say that under Cliff the worst record we've ever had post-ASB was 2014-15, the season where we missed Kemba for a month, we were stuck with Lance, and MKG, Al, and Cody got injured, and even then we were right around .500.

In 2013-14 we were 20-9 (69% winning percentage). In 2015-16 we were 21-8 (72% winning percentage).

[BigSlam]

Yup.

And we'll progress through the 2nd round.


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I agree and I didn't sweat it during their usual January doldrums due to nagging injuries, the road trips and being tired. We played 6 out of 7 away. Now we are 3-0 at home in a row and will hopefully beat #5 WAS tonight. Do that and we are #5.
The Hornets are not good enough to win without effort or through multiple injuries to the core but as long as Kemba doesn't go down we will make the playoffs. I think we could sneak into 4th.
A first round match up with the Hawks as 4/5 seed could be in the cards and is fairly winnable.
We won't beat the Cavs in round 2 though.....
Go Hornets!

I also think we'll end up with HCA. Likely the 4th seed.


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[GlenRiceARoni]

If you think it's practically impossible for us to make up a 3 game deficit over 37 games, probably best that I go ahead and exit this conversation.

I'll just say that under Cliff the worst record we've ever had post-ASB was 2014-15, the season where we missed Kemba for a month, we were stuck with Lance, and MKG, Al, and Cody got injured, and even then we were right around .500.

In 2013-14 we were 20-9 (69% winning percentage). In 2015-16 we were 21-8 (72% winning percentage).

Perhaps the math is above your head here. What percentage chance would you give us to finish in 4th place or better for playoff seeding?

This is the kind of willful ignorance that chased Mystical Apples off.

The NBA is approaching GTO thanks to player data tracking capabilities. Ignoring that doesn't change that fact.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------Hinkie has created a monster that will awaken in 2018 precisely 200 years after Mary Shelley published Frankenstein in 1818 A.D.
I don't think for a second this is coincidental as Hinkie is well educated and a fan of Classic British Lit

[yosemiteben]

Perhaps the math is above your head here.

I assure you it's not, I just think that you are arbitrarily selecting one 20 game sample size over another and then using the winning percentage over the more favorable sample size to project the next half of the season. There is no reason to assume that WAS's and ATL's win rates are sustainable, just like there was no reason to assume that their poor performance to kick off the season meant they were poor teams.

CHA's net rating on the season is 4th in the EC, both for the season and in the last 15 games, and our EWL is 4th in the EC. We are better than our record indicates right now, and in addition we notoriously slump in January and then come roaring out the gate post-ASB when Cliff stops f'ing around with the rotation.

But my biggest pet peeve is the fact that you said that a 3 game deficit was practically impossible to make up over a 37 game span, which to me is just obviously absurd and not worth engaging. Teams go on winning and losing streaks all the time.

[GlenRiceARoni]

The gap is SIGNIFICANTLY higher than three games.

There are TWO teams ahead of us so you have to combine the probabilities of both of them going into the tank. That changes the outlook considerably.

Now if you account for the fact that both teams are clearly considerably better than us over the last 23 games (not even close to a "small sample size" . In fact it's unnecessarily large).

Washington just stomped us out on our home court as 6 point underdogs. Thats alarming.

They also have the potential of adding Mahinmi who is coming off an excellent season.

Our surge last year was a direct result of limiting Jefferson's minutes, moving Cody to center, ridding ourselves of Hairston negative impact, and trading for lee to form one of the best 5 man lineups in the league.

Our rotation shift does not have that kind of potential this year given zeller is already featured at C and marv at Pf.

Upgrading Sessions/Hibbert minutes is a necessity short of Kemba morphing back into Superman for us to be at all competitive for the 4 seed. Unless we have some sort of monster deal up our sleeves.

That said it would still take an injury to Washington. They are leaps and bounds better than us right now

-----------------------------------------------------------------------Hinkie has created a monster that will awaken in 2018 precisely 200 years after Mary Shelley published Frankenstein in 1818 A.D.
I don't think for a second this is coincidental as Hinkie is well educated and a fan of Classic British Lit

[yosemiteben]

The gap is SIGNIFICANTLY higher than three games.

We trail ATL by 3 in the standings for the 4 seed. I don't understand what you are trying to accomplish by exaggerating the reality of the standings or acting like I don't know what they are.

Over the next 37 games, if we win three more games than ATL or WAS and no one below us jumps us, we'll be tied for the 4 seed. I don't believe that is such an impossible task.

[GlenRiceARoni]

Simple.

A) The probability of a .500 team going 22-15 is low.

B) The probability of a .580 team going below 19-18 is low.

C) The probability of the combination of TWO .580 teams going below 19-18 is very low.

The probability of ( A given C) is extremely low.

Like significantly lower than you're thinking. Im at the gym so i dont feel like doing the math but im guessing its about 2%.

Lets be generous and say we are better than our record and make it 3%

Im not sure how to adjust for the three teams injury probabilities but lets be generous and double our chances and make it 6%.







-----------------------------------------------------------------------Hinkie has created a monster that will awaken in 2018 precisely 200 years after Mary Shelley published Frankenstein in 1818 A.D.
I don't think for a second this is coincidental as Hinkie is well educated and a fan of Classic British Lit

[yosemiteben]

Like significantly lower than you're thinking. Im at the gym so i dont feel like doing the math but im guessing its about 2%.

There is no math to be done, you are just arbitrarily making up probabilities in a void. Unless you have a secret store of magical data on the future, there is nothing to calculate - it's all just arbitrary predictions. The reality is that ATL, WAS, and CHA have all had bottom 10 schedules based on SOS (link), so past performance is not necessarily a great indicator of what the future holds.

[GlenRiceARoni]

Nothing arbitrary about that math at all. I work in finance i have a degree in economics with a strong background in statistical analysis.

That isn't a brag whatsoever, im just stating ive done enough statistical analysis to have a pretty good idea of how the calculations are going to turn out.

Im saying all this as Hornets fan. Im not bashing your favorite team to be mean here, im just dealing with the reality of our situation.

Stating that we've all had similar schedule strengths actually hurts your argument as it strengthens the likelihood that our estimates of the team's relative strength is accurate.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------Hinkie has created a monster that will awaken in 2018 precisely 200 years after Mary Shelley published Frankenstein in 1818 A.D.
I don't think for a second this is coincidental as Hinkie is well educated and a fan of Classic British Lit

[yosemiteben]

Ok, explain to me the method by which you precisely determine the probability of a team's winning percentage over 37 games.

[GlenRiceARoni]

I'd just use a normal distribution centered around 18.5 wins since we are a .500 team

The Noll Scully calculation is about 4.5 wins for a full season so... lets use 2.25 for a half season and then kick that up to 3 to be conservative since this doesnt fit noll Scully

1 standard deviation is probably about 3 wins... so 2 std is probably around 6 wins. This is a pretty reasonable and generous assumption i believe since there is less than half a season.

So 95% Confidence interval would be 12.5 to 24.5 wins . Again this is being extremely generous.

So that puts us at about a 16% chance of winning more than 21.5 games and a 2.5% chance to win 24.5+ games.



-----------------------------------------------------------------------Hinkie has created a monster that will awaken in 2018 precisely 200 years after Mary Shelley published Frankenstein in 1818 A.D.
I don't think for a second this is coincidental as Hinkie is well educated and a fan of Classic British Lit

[yosemiteben]

I'd just use a normal distribution centered around 18.5 wins since we are a .500 team

So you have to predict a similar win rate to quantify that probability, correct?

[GlenRiceARoni]

Right. Its completely reasonable to expect us to win roughly half our games given thats our record so far.

Also our point differential is slightly positive and our recent record is below .500. So they kinda cancel each other out.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------Hinkie has created a monster that will awaken in 2018 precisely 200 years after Mary Shelley published Frankenstein in 1818 A.D.
I don't think for a second this is coincidental as Hinkie is well educated and a fan of Classic British Lit

[yosemiteben]

Right. Its completely reasonable to expect us to win roughly half our games given thats our record so far.

Except you don't consider things like injuries, incorporating new players, or making changes to / shortening the rotation.

It's just a bit of an arbitrary assumption, which was my original point. Calculating probabilities of us reaching a certain win total based on assumptions of a .500 performance seems circular.

[GlenRiceARoni]

You can bump the mean up a game and the probabilities are still extremely low...

Heck lets get REALLY optimistic with the projections

Lets say we were 50% likely to go 4 or more games over .500 and Atlanta was 50% likely to go .500 or worse...

Thats still 0.5 x 0.5 = 25% chance we pass atlanta. And those percentages are obviously overly optimistic. And it doesnt include washington!

Lets say they are 80% likely to finish 2 games above .500 or less from here on out.

Now we are at 20% to win the 4 seed with yet another overly optimistic estimation.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------Hinkie has created a monster that will awaken in 2018 precisely 200 years after Mary Shelley published Frankenstein in 1818 A.D.
I don't think for a second this is coincidental as Hinkie is well educated and a fan of Classic British Lit

[yosemiteben]

That is just more arbitrary assigning of percentages.

[Hornet Mania]

Yeah, we'll make the playoffs. Our group has been together for awhile, they'll remain steady enough to get to 42-44 wins and that's all you need to punch your ticket. Indy and Chicago have much more volatile situations, same with Detroit and the Bucks, they could go way up or way down depending on trades or how much bitching their stars do. Our boat will rock less, and we'll get in over at least two of those teams because of it.

Might even make the 2nd round if we don't draw Cleveland. The entire East 2-8 (yeah, I included the Raps, they ain't sweeping anyone and they always play a long series win or lose) is basically wide-open just as it was last season.

We don't have the horses to pull ahead of that pack, pretty much ever ("ever" being the next few years) as it stands right now, but we've got enough to stay comfortably within the middle. I think we'll finish 6th or 7th, but anything 3 and below would be unsurprising.

I just hope Cho can make a heady under-the-radar trade exchanging garbage for a decent role player like he did with Warrick for McBob and Hairston/Roberts for Lee. I think we'll make the playoffs even if we don't, but that would push us more towards 3-5 rather than 6-8 in seeding.

I also hope we keep our 1st, this is the PG draft of the ages on paper and we should grab whichever one falls into the 20s.

On the topic that yosemite and glenricearoni are on right now, I gotta say we should not assume Atlanta/Washington are gonna just keep streaking like this. The Wizards are one Beal knee pop or Wall ankle roll away from the lottery (same with us and Kemba, to be fair) and any Dwight team is capable of melting down at the drop of a hat. They'll both probably finish above us, they arguably should in terms of talent, but they aren't immune to a tailspin.