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Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2024 1:26 am
by NyKnicks1714
Sedale Threatt wrote:
NyKnicks1714 wrote:
Sedale Threatt wrote:
Nope, and this is what it all comes down to. Just like NFL teams are figuring out they've been way, way, way too conservative with fourth downs, the NBA optimized game strategy based on the current court layout. It only took them 30-plus years and it didn't have as much to do with Stephen Curry as increased statistical analysis inspired by baseball.

It's pretty simple: The most efficient shot in basketball on a points-per-attempt basis is, obviously, right at the rim. Then it gradually slopes downward until you get to the 3-point line, where it skyrockets because of the 50-percent boost from 2 to 3. So it doesn't take a brain genius to figure out which shots you should be emphasizing.

And then because of all the movement cameras and advanced tracking that came into use, they were able to break down shot efficiency by play type and figured out that post-ups and isos were some of the worst shots you could take. It's fine if you're dealing with Hakeem Olajuwon or Kevin McHale. But 90 percent of the rest of the goons that used to get NBA jobs? Not so much.

So until they move the line back or get rid of it entirely, or do something radical like what you mentioned -- that one's hard to wrap my head around but I suppose it could work -- nothing's going to change it.


It's wild, no doubt, but it's the only way I can see to add more variety back into the game at the team level. As an example, maybe three options: current 3-point line, 3-point line with no corner three, extended 3-point line. They choose one and it's their home 3-pt line for the entire regular season and postseason.

Let teams use analytics to figure out which would give them the best advantage over their opponent according to their rosters. There are added wrinkles and more challenges when putting together game-plans on the road.

It's a little gimmicky, but it has a lot of utility.


The more I think about it the less Iike it. At one point the 3-point line itself was a gimmick so it's not that. It just feels goofy that the 3-point line would vary from building to building. I guess baseball fields are all different, and I know soccer fields only have set mins/maxes that teams can use to fit their facilities. But that just feels way off to me.

Honestly, the only thing that will probably fix it -- if it even needs to be fixed -- goes back to pushing the line out deep enough where there isn't as much reward for taking them. That would eliminate the corner 3, but they already had to shorten those porches to get it to fit in the first place. Or I guess they could widen the court, but that's got all kinds of potential ramifications -- besides removing valuable seats from your bottom line, which no team would want to do.


We're talking about different things though. I'm talking about variety, not overall number or rate of three-point attempts. No court design or set of rule changes addresses the former. An optimal shot distribution would emerge and teams, like they do now, would develop a strategy to be as close to that optimal distribution as they can.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2024 6:10 am
by sisibilio
SkyBill40 wrote:The game has, to me anyway, become boring. Is Curry at fault for the massive increase in chucking from distance by just about everyone? Probably not, but he's definitely had an effect.

I genuinely miss the days of 90's basketball with hard nosed defense which included hand checking and no zone. The rules have given so much favor to the offensive player and stripped away tactics for the defensive player to counter it. That's created the entertainment monster we have today. No one wants to see those grind out, low scoring Knicks games anymore. And while I wasn't a fan of that method per se, it meant that if you wanted to score... you had to earn it.

How exactly allowing "a bit" of zone defense favors the offensive player? :dontknow:

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2024 6:15 am
by CIN-C-STAR
I always liked the idea of each team setting their own 3-point line.
It gives the game more variety as others have said but it also rewards more pure shooters I think, guys that can just pullup from anywhere.
Those are the guys I actually want to see shooting from outside, not some uncoordinated oaf that can only shoot it from exactly 23'9" because he's spent thousands of hours practicing that one skill since he's 6'11" and will make millions if he can just get this one muscle memory down.
Naw I'm good on that put that dude in the paint and teach him a drop step, a baby hook, and a step thru.
And I know some say it's gimmicky but, c'mon, it's the NBA. It's already gimmicky don't fool yourself.
They've practically turned it into the Harlem Globetrotters anyway. Thankfully they have recently considered reinstalling defense, we'll see if it holds, but the fact that it's been a debate, I mean, c'mon.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2024 6:27 am
by Ito
Moving the 3 point line back just gon have players shooting more long 2’s which then would have people complaining bout what is a good or bad shot..

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2024 7:01 am
by CIN-C-STAR
Crazy chart. Thanks for sharing OP.

Kinda funny how in the old chart you look at certain spots on the floor and see certain players, like Dirk at the extended elbow or high post, but you see today's shot chart and all there is to see is, "yeah, everyone shoots a lot of 3s" lol.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2024 3:17 pm
by SkyBill40
sisibilio wrote:
SkyBill40 wrote:The game has, to me anyway, become boring. Is Curry at fault for the massive increase in chucking from distance by just about everyone? Probably not, but he's definitely had an effect.

I genuinely miss the days of 90's basketball with hard nosed defense which included hand checking and no zone. The rules have given so much favor to the offensive player and stripped away tactics for the defensive player to counter it. That's created the entertainment monster we have today. No one wants to see those grind out, low scoring Knicks games anymore. And while I wasn't a fan of that method per se, it meant that if you wanted to score... you had to earn it.

How exactly allowing "a bit" of zone defense favors the offensive player? :dontknow:


This is the NBA and these are professionals. They should be able to play man on man defense just like always and not have to rely on zone. And it's not just a "bit" of zone; it's either employed or it isn't.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2024 3:27 pm
by JujitsuFlip
jpengland wrote:It does make me laugh that people are yearning for.the days of Josh Smith throwing up deep 2s and Jerry Stackhouse isolating and throwing up off balance mid rangers.

Basketball got smarter and more talented.
100% this. Idk who is chomping at the bit for contested mid range turn around fade aways and throwing it into the post to watch some no name big with no post moves dribble the air out of the ball lol

That game sucked to watch, no wonder scoring was so low, the efficiency on either shot type was atrocious, given the players who were attempting them.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2024 3:31 pm
by CelticSooner
We sure the first shot chart isn’t the Suns current one? I kid….I kid…..

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2024 4:30 pm
by Jamaaliver
dhsilv2 wrote:
Jamaaliver wrote:It always amuses me when I read a draft profile of a young player being a 3-level scorer...knowing that modern NBA offenses typically only allow 2 level scoring.

It becomes a wasted skill TBH.


3 levels is allowed by the allstars. If this were the top 300 shots by the guys who made the allstar game for example, it would look significantly different.




To your very valid point:

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Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2024 4:35 pm
by life_saver
I think this is a lot better chart than whatever was shared in the OP. Actions that are being run for generating shots haven't changed much...it's just that these shots are now taken from 3 pt line from midrange

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Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2024 4:39 pm
by Jamaaliver
Ito wrote:Moving the 3 point line back just gon have players shooting more long 2’s which then would have people complaining bout what is a good or bad shot..


IDK, man. If a long two is considered the worst possible shot in basketball, and a player can't hit from the new deeper 3-pt line, seems like coaches would encourage FGAs closer to the bucket -- that have a higher % chance of going in.


10-15 foot jumpers would be the spot on the floor most likely to see an increase...not 20+ foot jumpers for the same amount of points.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2024 4:40 pm
by pipfan
I agree with some other posters here-the game is predictable now. The skill level is off the chart (even if you called the proper travels and carries, players' skill levels are so high). But, when I watch games I feel like I know all the sets-since all teams seem to use about the same offense.
My suggestions
1-allow any defense
2-call carries and blatant travels

those 2 changes would allow the game to balance some

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Mon Apr 1, 2024 3:19 am
by Jamaaliver
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Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Mon Apr 1, 2024 6:05 am
by BloodNinja
Jamaaliver wrote:
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Wow the last 5 champions in the single digits.

I do miss the variety of offense the mid range offfered.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Mon Apr 1, 2024 10:24 am
by FarBeyondDriven
none of the above. just call the rules currently on the books. The game would change overnight and revert back to its former glory. I'm so tired of seeing moving screens, offensive push offs, carries and travels.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Mon Apr 1, 2024 10:31 am
by FarBeyondDriven
Jamaaliver wrote:
KembaWalker wrote:I don’t really get why people act like it’s some kind of stylistic preference, it’s just truly and simply objectively worse that we’ve lost 3 level basketball. Fewer archetypes in the league make for a more boring sport


It always amuses me when I read a draft profile of a young player being a 3-level scorer...knowing that modern NBA offenses typically only allow 2 level scoring.

It becomes a wasted skill TBH.


It's really mentioned so infrequently and when it is, it's because the prospect actually has a mid-range game either a J or a floater and will probably utilize those skills in the NBA as well like SGA, McCollum, Booker, KD and Kyrie. It's a good way to separate prospects like Knecht, McCain, Watkins and Carrington from guys like Sheppard, Risacher, Salaun and Collier.

Re: NBA Shot Profile 2004 vs 2024

Posted: Wed May 1, 2024 2:51 pm
by Jamaaliver
This is pretty crazy. The majority of the court is no longer being used properly.

Spacing isn't just 5 guys sitting on the 3-pt line!

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