2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread

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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#361 » by mopper8 » Wed Apr 27, 2011 4:24 pm

Tim_Hardawayy wrote:
Sixerlover wrote:
Chosen01 wrote:So the league average is 25.7% with Durant and co hovering around 23%? here I was thinking the rest of the league was shooting 50% while LeBron and Wade were the only ones not converting efficiently in 5 secs or less.

Mind=Blown

The league average is 25%, but you guys are at 5%. 5x worse then the AVERAGE. That's why the media is making a big deal out of it.

And if they made 4 more they'd be at 25%. 4 shots over the course of a whole season. Do you grasp the concept of sample size?


As little as you're conceding, you're still conceding too much here lol, because the math is off. Wade/Lebron aren't at 5%, they are at 7.7%. They don't need to make 4 more to hit 25.7%, 25.7% of 13 is 3.34. So that's 2.3 more made over the course of the entire season. Because of rounding, then, basically if they were 3-13 instead of 1-13 they are at league average. So its not 4 more shots over the course of the season, it's two.

If you don't think a deviation of +/- 2 in 13 tries is within standard statistical variations, then I don't know what to say.
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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#362 » by JellosJigglin » Wed Apr 27, 2011 4:37 pm

Tim_Hardawayy wrote:
Sixerlover wrote:
Chosen01 wrote:So the league average is 25.7% with Durant and co hovering around 23%? here I was thinking the rest of the league was shooting 50% while LeBron and Wade were the only ones not converting efficiently in 5 secs or less.

Mind=Blown

The league average is 25%, but you guys are at 5%. 5x worse then the AVERAGE. That's why the media is making a big deal out of it.

And if they made 4 more they'd be at 25%. 4 shots over the course of a whole season. Do you grasp the concept of sample size?

Make no mistake, the media is making a big deal about it because this is one of the first things they were going to scrutinize with this team. They were asking, "Who takes the last shot?" the very first day all 3 guys were signed.


The question remains to this day. And I do think it needs to be addressed if they're going to develop long term chemistry. It's only year one, but if the issue continues year after year, there will be internal problems.

There hasn't been a team with 2 alpha males since Kobe and Shaq. But even as a 19 year old, it was clear Kobe would be the one taking those shots, and Shaq was okay with it (for the most part). There was a clear pecking order in those situations, which I think helped their chemistry on the court. Kobe was their closer, and that became a part of the team's personality.

Personally, I'd want my closer to be a guy who's looking to create his own shot first, and a teammate's shot 2nd. That's why, for me at least, Wade should be the obvious closer on the Heat. I just don't think that closer mentality is in Lebron's DNA. He looks to facilitate as much as he looks for his own shot. That's great for the first 46 minutes of the game, but a late game assassin should be looking for the kill shot.
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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#363 » by kyphi » Wed Apr 27, 2011 4:41 pm

Miami should be so far ahead it shouldn't have to come down to last shots - sometimes you hit, sometimes you miss on those kinds of shots -
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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#364 » by Iversean » Wed Apr 27, 2011 4:55 pm

I just had another thing to bring up:

Did anybody that was a "real fan" believe the Grizzilies be up 3-1 with a chance to close out the Spurs in 5 today? I am pretty sure nobody had predicted this. Grizzilies have a VERY good chance to do it now. I actually won't be surprised if they win convincingly back in MEM, game 6.

The only people that probably predicted Grizzilies winning in 6, or winning at all: would most likely be Memphis fans. Or at least a good percentage of those who had them winning are. Does this make their fans unknowledgeable? Does it make them not "real" fans? Haha.

They have faith in their team just like I do for mine. I bet if people started picking Memphis in 5 (which now can happen) people or lets say "real fans" would call them unknowledgeable/delusional or whatever remarks posters use to talk smack. I've never stated the Sixers would sweep the heat like the one poster you despise. I do however think if 100% HEALTHY, we could stand a chance in making it a competitive series. And a miniscule, yet still a shot at beating the Heat. What's wrong with that?

That is just pride for their team. So even if the Grizzilies[and their fans] know the Spurs are a better team. and OUTMATCHED. less STAR power. Ginobli-Parker-Duncan can be a Big3 comparable to the Big3 of Miami. Does that mean they can't TRULY believe their team[and the city of Memphis] can beat a superior one, this case the Spurs?

No. Because it's on the brink of happening. Even if MEM gets eliminated in 7, I bet most people before the series wouldn't even think they take the #1 seed to a full series. Heck, even I predicted SA in 5. And look where we are at now. I respect MEM even if they choke and lose this series lead.

Again, I know Miami's roster is better than Philadelphia. But does that make me think we have no shot of taking it past 6 games? No. I think we could win. As I've stated, it would take a miracle to happen and probably a 1/10 chance. I predicted MIA in 5. But if 100% I do think we could drag this series longer, maybe a full 7 gamer [with a tiny shot at beating them] than how it looks like you guys are most likely going to close it out today.

My example proves my point. Fans can have faith and truly believe we can defeat teams [higher seeds] heck that is why only 14 teams make it, and 16 other teams don't. As long as I wouldn't make any absurd prediction such as "Sixers would sweep the Heat if 100% healthy"

I simply stated Sixers in 6 would be the best-case scenario if everything clicked. Oops, I forgot that was an absurd "outta this world prediction" Just like how the Grizzilies are handling the Spurs 3-1 with a chance to close out in 5 today. btw, I am picking the Grizzilies in 6 now. Had spurs in 5, but at this moment [after seeing 4 games of action], I expect them to finish them off in Memphis.


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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#365 » by mopper8 » Wed Apr 27, 2011 4:59 pm

I don't know if anyone questioned the validity of anyone's "fandom" over how they predicted this series to go, but if they did, that's ridiculous.
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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#366 » by Iversean » Wed Apr 27, 2011 5:07 pm

16 teams make it, 14 don't
:X ha

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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#367 » by Edrees » Wed Apr 27, 2011 6:48 pm

Iversean - The difference is that the Grizzlies have played the spurs tight in San Antonioall series long, and spurs only won one game by like 3 points. Griz have blown out the Spurs hard in Memphis. Hence why people will predict the Grizz to win the next game. The sixers have been completely outplayed in most of their games and completely blown out once, so with the way the series is going it's unlikely for them to turn it around. A more realistic comparison IMO is someone predicting the spurs can comeback and win that series is like the Sixers coming back to win this one.

Having faith in your team is commendable, and I respect that, but I don't think your analogy there is a good one.
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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#368 » by tk76 » Wed Apr 27, 2011 7:25 pm

Edrees wrote: The sixers have been completely outplayed in most of their games and completely blown out once


The Sixers are over-matched, but your statement is incorrect. There have been 3 close games and 1 blow-out. In 3 of the games the Sixers jumped out to big leads, the Heat countered in the 2nd qtr and the games have been close throughout the 3rd and much of the 4th.

The Sixer were within 2 pts with 2 minutes left game 1.
The Sixer were within 5 pts with 2.5 minutes left game 3. Within 4 with 45 sec left.
The Sixers won game 4.
The Sixers were blown out in game 2.

How is that being "completely outplayed in most of their games"?
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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#369 » by SideshowBob » Wed Apr 27, 2011 7:29 pm

JellosJigglin wrote:The question remains to this day. And I do think it needs to be addressed if they're going to develop long term chemistry. It's only year one, but if the issue continues year after year, there will be internal problems.

There hasn't been a team with 2 alpha males since Kobe and Shaq. But even as a 19 year old, it was clear Kobe would be the one taking those shots, and Shaq was okay with it (for the most part). There was a clear pecking order in those situations, which I think helped their chemistry on the court. Kobe was their closer, and that became a part of the team's personality.

Personally, I'd want my closer to be a guy who's looking to create his own shot first, and a teammate's shot 2nd. That's why, for me at least, Wade should be the obvious closer on the Heat. I just don't think that closer mentality is in Lebron's DNA. He looks to facilitate as much as he looks for his own shot. That's great for the first 46 minutes of the game, but a late game assassin should be looking for the kill shot.


On the contrary, I the exact opposite is true. I think it's arguable that Lebron becomes a complete ball hog (if you will) in high pressure moments.

Let's take a look at his 82 games clutch numbers for this season.

http://www.82games.com/1011/CSORT11.HTM

I'm going to focus on AST ratio, or the % of a players possessions that end in an assist. Formula: AST/(.44 x FTA + FGA + TOV + AST)

This year in the clutch, Lebron posted an AST ratio of 10.6%. On the other hand, his AST ratio for the season overall was 21.2%, or exactly TWICE of what his clutch ratio was.

Let's compare this with Kobe Bryant

Kobe's clutch AST ratio was 12.8%, and his overall was 15.4%, a much smaller difference. Kobe was a lot more likely to pass in close game situations than Lebron was, and his dropoff was not nearly as significant.


Now let's look at last season as well

In 09-10, Lebron's clutch AST ratio was 12.8%, as opposed to an overall AST ratio of 23.4%!

Say what you want about him, it doesn't seem that he's afraid to take the shots down the stretch, and his production justifies it. This isn't to say that he should be the "closer" over Wade, nor the opposite in that he is a "ball hog" in the clutch that should not be given the ball. All I'm pointing out is that for all the flak that he gets for not having the mentality to take the big shots, it seems that he's more prolific in taking them than he's given credit for.


EDIT:
http://www.82games.com/SCSORT11.HTM
I found an 82 games study from several years ago that shows "super-clutch" numbers (defined as 4th quarter or overtime, less than 2 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 3 points) from the 07-08 season. The sample sizes are even smaller, however the same point holds true. James' AST ratio has dropped even further down to 9.5% from his overall 19.4% that season, and his scoring rate skyrockets further.
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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#370 » by tk76 » Wed Apr 27, 2011 8:54 pm

The national coverage and discussion of this series is 100% about the Heat. This is not unexpected.. nor is it even unfair.

But I wonder what it would take for the Sixers to get some attention. I do not think winning games would be enough. It still would simply turn into a discussion about why the Heat were losing. My guess is that some Sixer player would have to score 30+ at least twice before they got even a national mention let alone some buzz.
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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#371 » by Murk » Wed Apr 27, 2011 9:26 pm

So Skip just tweeted something rather humorous and relevant to this series. There's no reason to make a new thread on it so I'll leave you with this (no trollo):

Skip Bayless
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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#372 » by RoseAboveDurant » Wed Apr 27, 2011 9:49 pm

tk76 wrote:The national coverage and discussion of this series is 100% about the Heat. This is not unexpected.. nor is it even unfair.

But I wonder what it would take for the Sixers to get some attention. I do not think winning games would be enough. It still would simply turn into a discussion about why the Heat were losing. My guess is that some Sixer player would have to score 30+ at least twice before they got even a national mention let alone some buzz.


Its sad that the National media hasn't given the 76ers more attention.

All the games save 1 were close.

However, if the 76ers win 1 more game and push the Heat to a 6th game back in Philly and people will notice.

It does seem though that more credit has gone to Doug Collins rather than the players.
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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#373 » by Rondo To KG » Wed Apr 27, 2011 10:05 pm

Iversean wrote:I just had another thing to bring up:

Did anybody that was a "real fan" believe the Grizzilies be up 3-1 with a chance to close out the Spurs in 5 today? I am pretty sure nobody had predicted this. Grizzilies have a VERY good chance to do it now. I actually won't be surprised if they win convincingly back in MEM, game 6.

The only people that probably predicted Grizzilies winning in 6, or winning at all: would most likely be Memphis fans. Or at least a good percentage of those who had them winning are. Does this make their fans unknowledgeable? Does it make them not "real" fans? Haha.


http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1106658&start=30

Rondo To KG wrote:Predicting an upset. Grizzlies in 6.


8-)
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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#374 » by tk76 » Wed Apr 27, 2011 10:36 pm

RoseAboveDurant wrote:However, if the 76ers win 1 more game and push the Heat to a 6th game back in Philly and people will notice.


I'm bummed at how little attention the Sixers get even in Philly.

Game 2 the Sixers, Flyers and phillies were all playing at the same time.

In Philly the ratings were:

Sixers: 3.0
Flyers: 5.6
Phillies: 15

So 85% of the sports fans in Philly were watching another team.
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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#375 » by Sinant » Wed Apr 27, 2011 11:13 pm

Game 2 was a 20 point game. It wasn't close after the first quarter.

That's a "boring game" thing, not a "Philly hates the Sixers" thing.
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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#376 » by Clocian » Wed Apr 27, 2011 11:18 pm

philly off to a good start
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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#377 » by RealRip32 » Wed Apr 27, 2011 11:19 pm

wow good D by bosh!
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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#378 » by JNelson43 » Wed Apr 27, 2011 11:23 pm

Even with this start, I'd be shocked if the Heat lost this one.
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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#379 » by BlameTheRefs » Wed Apr 27, 2011 11:24 pm

Look at all the bandwagon Heat fans out there.
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Re: 2x Official (2) Miami vs. (7) Philadelphia Thread 

Post#380 » by mrblunt » Wed Apr 27, 2011 11:24 pm

into the beast post presence of joel anthony.
Feel the Heat!
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