Michael Jordan would average 50 ppg according to experts

[Gongxi]

???

He said there were other factors, didn't he? Wouldn't usage be part of that? He's just saying if you only look at pace and defensive rating (which is the only two numbers you provided) you'd be left feeling very confused.

[Shot Clock]

It's funny when people defend something they don't even understand. In the late 80s the pace was considerably higher and defenses were slightly worse than they are now

You are seriously overrating the defense of the mid-90s

League wide defensive rating and pace this season was: 107.3 (DRtg) / 92.1 (pace)

DRtg/ Pace during late 80s
86-87 - 108.3 / 100 <---- the season he averaged 37
87-88 - 108 / 99.6
88-89 - 107.8 / 100.6
89-90 - 108.1 / 98.3

What about DRtg / Pace for the Mid 90s?
92-93 - 108 / 96.8
95-96 - 107.6 / 91.8
96-97 - 106.7 / 90.1


Jordan is the GOAT but you to take off your homer goggles and be reasonable for a change.

League pace isn't as important as your team pace and team pace is practically a non-indicator of individual scoring. According to PACe and drtg

Kobe in 07-08 averaged 28.3 on a team with a PACE of 95.6 and a league drtg of 107.5

So there's no way he could increase his scoring by 7 points on a team with a PACE of 90.9 in a league with a better drtg of 106.2. (05-06)

Yet he did.

Also you wouldn't expect that the year before he hit 35 ppg he played at almost exactly the same PACE and in a league with the same DTRG that he would average almost 8 points less per game....

I really dislike the DRTG overall. And PACE alone ignores so many other factors that are much more critical to individual scoring.

lol.

So should we ignore the fact that Kobe's USG% in 05-06 was 38.7% compared to 31.4% in 07-08?

Try again.

Are we going to ignore the fact that Kobe's USG% in 05/06 was

So you talk drtg and PACE and he points out how flawed the logic is around predicting scoring and says there are many other factors that impact it more and you go ahead and add another factor USG and feel somehow you have made a counterpoint....

[Don Draper]

???

He said there were other factors, didn't he? Wouldn't usage be part of that? He's just saying if you only look at pace and defensive rating (which is the only two numbers you provided) you'd be left feeling very confused.

I thought it was a given that USG% matters (and TS% etc).

The point still stands. It would very unlikely that Jordan averages 40 PPG let alone 50. Jordan at 23 averaged 37 PPG, had a usage of 38% (his career high), TS% around his career average, played in a much faster face, and against slightly worse defenses. What would make any critical thinking person believe he would average 40+ PPG?

[Gongxi]

I already told you: the rules of the game today make it much easier for slashing guards to dominate. You don't think those rules would account for 3 points. I do.

[Don Draper]

lol.

So should we ignore the fact that Kobe's USG% in 05-06 was 38.7% compared to 31.4% in 07-08?

Try again.

Are we going to ignore the fact that Kobe's USG% in 05/06 was

So you talk drtg and PACE and he points out how flawed the logic is around predicting scoring and says there are many other factors that impact it more and you go ahead and add another factor USG and feel somehow you have made a counterpoint....

And another one who can't grasp the simple concepts of efficiency and pace. lol

Like I said before, I thought it was a given that we are factoring his other offensive statistics. Even if you factor everything else (USG%, TS%, team pace, etc) the conclusion is still the same. He doesn't average 40 or 50.

[Gongxi]

Dude, all the guy did was tell you that defensive rating and pace don't account for everything. Instead of just saying "Yeah, I know", you used usage to try to rebut what he said. People are going to laugh at you about it, don't get butthurt.

[colts18]

I already told you: the rules of the game today make it much easier for slashing guards to dominate. You don't think those rules would account for 3 points. I do.

I don't see that. From 85-90, there were 20 guard seasons with 20+ PPG and .500 FG% compared to 4 from 06-11.

[Gongxi]

That's because they don't shoot as well between the 3 point line and the paint. Mostly because they all want to be Jordan.

[BubbaTee]

Jordan would basically need the mentality of a complete ballhog to average 50, because it would require taking shots against double- and triple-teams instead of passing to wide-open guys. It would require him to play bad, low-IQ basketball.

The mentality Jordan would need to average 50 is incompatible with Jordan being the same player who passed to Paxson and Kerr. You'd have to replace his brain with Sasha Vujacic's or Slava Medvedencko's - someone who thinks they should be shooting every time they touch the rock.

eurohater lolz

Fine, toss Eddie House in there too or something. Those 2 were just the first 2 ballhogs that came to mind. I live in LA, so I saw them quite a bit more than shot-jackers from other cities. The next time either passes up a decent shot and makes the extra pass for a better shot will be the first.

[Jase]

I don't see why this matters now.

[Don Draper]

Dude, all the guy did was tell you that defensive rating and pace don't account for everything. Instead of just saying "Yeah, I know", you used usage to try to rebut what he said. People are going to laugh at you about it, don't get butthurt.

Whoever said DRtg and pace account for everything? I know I sure didn't. If we trying to predict what Prime Jordan's scoring average would have been in 2011 then league wide pace and defensive efficiency are two important points to consider.

the rules of the game today make it much easier for slashing guards to dominate.

Yet defenses overall were worse in the late 80s and early 90s.

[reapaman]

Beyond that, I think people are out of their minds if they don't think he'd average an extremely efficient 30-35 against modern defensive players and schemes (on a good to great team). The lack of the handcheck rule helps an extremely aggressive Jordan more than any other player in NBA history. His advanced post game against defenders at the SG/SF position that have no idea how to defend against an elite post player is also a huge advantage.

Jordan could average 30+ doing nothing but posting up against modern wing defenders. Current wing defenders have no clue how to defend the post, and Jordan is not only the best post guard of all time, he's one of the best post players period. If on a terrible team, he would approach the 37 he averaged back in the day. More than 37-38 is too much.

If a low post game was so effective, then more players would use it. Kobe has a low post game that he developed over the past couple seasons but he rarely uses it but he does operate with his back turned in the high post for the turn around jumper. Carmelo has a great low post game and great size, he also rarely uses it. If posting up was so effective then tim duncan wouldn't have fall off so hard like the big man in the past were able to rely on the post game to extend their careers. Even KG rarely uses his post game anymore even though he used to use it alot when he was younger. Lamarcus Aldridge displayed a good low post game in the middle of the season this year, but stop using it as the schedule got tougher.

Your making a biased assumption. Its just not as effective today as you think it is. The game is more perimeter oriented to deal with better defenses, stop denying it. And your notion that guys don't know how to defend in the post is beyond silly. We have mini books today that disect a team/player every move, so you can plan for anything (whether it works or not is a different story). And again, guys like pierce and kobe sometimes turn their back to the defender in the high post (usually for the turn around jumper). And defending a guy in the low post wouldn't be any different than defending in the high post with the offender's back turned to them. So guys today do have experience defending in the post.

BTW, when you guys talk about hand checking, why don't you ever mention how the offensive players would use part of their are to push the defender away and create space. The bigger person would usually win this battle oviousily. Jordan did that all the time versus the "6-1 white guys".

[Tim_Hardawayy]

I don't see why this matters now.

People love era debates, kind of like in baseball how they try to determine how Babe Ruth would do in today's game, or in football debating how Dan Marino's numbers would translate to today's rules.

I personally dislike them, because they're just so... hypothetical. Inevitably, one side goes too far in one direction, the other goes too far in the other, and you never reach any sort of common ground.

[number 11]

let kobe, in his prime, play on the elbow without a soft double or any ball denial

he would be the GOAT w/o question

it was hilarious watching michael catch the ball in the same spot over and over

the defense would get a whistle if they moved an inch before he caught it 15 feet from the basket

by the time he caught it, it was wayyy too late to do anything

every time

[disoblige]

micheal scored 20pts per game with the wizard with horrible TS%. All bull. Sure he was 38, but he was still Micheal Jordan.

[DavidSterned]

Replace 2005-06 Kobe with a prime Jordan and put him in the same situation and I think there's no question MJ could up Kobe's 35.4 PPG average by a decent amount. Probably up to 38-40PPG. Of course he'd still be very hard pressed to win more than Kobe did that season, but it's not like the scoring would be a huge challenge.

[Gongxi]

Dude, all the guy did was tell you that defensive rating and pace don't account for everything. Instead of just saying "Yeah, I know", you used usage to try to rebut what he said. People are going to laugh at you about it, don't get butthurt.

Whoever said DRtg and pace account for everything? I know I sure didn't. If we trying to predict what Prime Jordan's scoring average would have been in 2011 then league wide pace and defensive efficiency are two important points to consider.

But not all, unfortunately.

the rules of the game today make it much easier for slashing guards to dominate.

Yet defenses overall were worse in the late 80s and early 90s.

Whether this is true or not, wouldn't the most important thing when talking about a slashing guard scoring be if the rules allowed them to do so or not? "Defense" in general is pretty peripheral to the point there. It's easier to slashing guards to score now than it was then. Jordan at his peak was probably the best slashing guard scorer ever, so...

[Jordan23Forever]

I don't even understand what you guys are trying to argue. 50 is impossible and 40 is a laughable.

There is absolutely no indication that Jordan would average 40 let alone 50.

Except that you said he wouldn't even average 35 ppg, which is also laughable. He may or may not depending on the circumstance, but he certainly could. 35-37 ppg on 47.5-50% FG/56-58% TS is entirely reasonable for 24-28 year old MJ as a peak season or two.

Annual averages of 32-33.5 ppg on 49-51.5% FG/58-60+% TS are a foregone conclusion.