We'll see. I'd bet on L.A. if they were healthy because Howard immediately nullifies Gasol's impact, at least, and I think it's clear that Nash is superior to Conley. Metta will be disruptive, especially if Gay continues to peddle his mediocre scoring wares and Pau matches up well with Z-Bo. Now, those are just straight 1v1 matchups, so team chemistry will be important and obviously the Grizz have phenomenal team chemistry, but the offensive firepower on L.A. and how well it meshes (as opposed to, say, the 04 Lakers) leaves me doubtful that Memphis will be able to hang with the Lakers once/if they get semi-healthy.
On paper, coming into the season, that Lakers squad is absolutely terrifying. But there are sufficient question marks around their coaching, age and integration, and the grizzlies have been sufficiently impressive to date that I can absolutely see them ending up as another Griz-Spurs type series, with the griz upsetting an ageing contender against the apparent odds. But equally I wouldn't be at all surprised if the lakers do manage to pull it together...
I wouldn't call them a favorite over New York based on a single RS game. Remember, that loss happened because of the 3rd quarter in the Knicks/Grizz game. New York was +3 over the other three quarters in the game but laid an 18-point egg while the Grizz scored 31 in the third quarter. Melo played only 3 minutes in that quarter because of some fouls and a tech, I mean that game was just a RS game. The 72-win Bulls lost to the expansion Raptors, right? So did the WC champ Sonics that year, it happens. I'd still tend to favor the Knicks in a Finals series.
The griz have been the better team than the knicks each of the last two seasons, beat them by double figures a couple of days ago and have a better record against tougher competition. Again, we're talking probabilities not certainties here, but it's hard to see what else the grizzlies could have done to show that they deserve to be favoured over Melo and co.