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Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?

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Post#61 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:33 pm by Aeternus

misterrunon wrote:The only other point guard who i think is considered elite with low PPG average is kidd.

Oh goodness, Rondo is pretty damn far from Kidd's scoring volume actually. Ok, Kidd may not have scored at MJ's volume and efficiency, but he had 8 (eight) seasons above Rondo's career high season. Rondo is quite a bit a worse scorer than the worst scoring of elite PGs.
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Post#62 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 1:10 pm by FingerRoll

I love how Jason Kidd's 3 point shots end up looking like jumping jacks toward the release.
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Post#63 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:16 pm by Bertrob

Yep this thread is turning out like usual

AntwanBoldin wrote:Jason Kidd actually played defense


Rondo is one of the more aggressive and intelligent defenders in the league.

CKRT wrote:Most of his assists are already set up before he even crosses half court. Avery Bradley stepped into his role last year and actually improved the team's dismal ORTG. Every year that he's received more responsibility in the offense, the worse the Celtics offense has gotten, and despite what Celtic fans will tell you, Nash has dominated the top ten offenses of all time without strong offensive rebounding.


The Celtics offense got worse because its teams got worse. Not hard to understand. Rondo's mediocre scoring had something to do with it but throwing OTRG out there and trying to fool people who aren't familiar with it is a low blow. Also the Celtics offense were always decent to good before last year. Its back to decent again and Rondo still has his fingertips all over the offense so what does that tell you?

AntwanBoldin wrote:He CAN guard, but he chooses not to.


From time to time. But he plays defense far more than he slacks off

Deathclutch23 wrote:
83SixersRocked wrote:We'd better be, otherwise Father Time enters the room next.


Rondo's game isn't athleticism based anyway so father time will be late barring major injury.


This is slightly untrue. Rondo depends on his athleticism for scoring due to his weak jumper, if Rondo doesn't develop that jumper like KIdd did, he will be hit hard by father time.

CKRT wrote:
Yeah! Lets rely on our faulty eye tests and biased minds to provide all the knowledge we need! Your kind of thinking is thankfully being weeded out. No need to keep being ignorant of what's actually happening on the court. I love the implication that the "stat geeks" don't watch games either. It's brilliant, really.


By the way, all those "nerdy pocket protecting kids" that came up with these statistics work in all the top NBA franchises.


Lets also not rely on bias and falsifying people who bend stats to their advantage.

CKRT wrote:
KingCuban wrote:
GratefulDead wrote:he will need to develop a consistent shot if he wants to enter his prime.


If he wants to go down as one of the great point guards of all time, then he does, but even now, without a dead eye jumper, he is a top 5 point guard in the game.

20 assists yesterday.

You don't see that much these days.


You also don't see many guys getting assists for passing the ball to a guy who takes 4 dribbles and then scores.


Too bad that applies to everyone in the league

MrHidden wrote:
+1
scorekeeper in boston is meh


THE SCOREKEEPER EVERYWHERE IS MEH. NASH IN PHX. STOCKTON IN UTAH. JACKSON IN NY. WHAT THE **** ARE YOU GUYS SEEING?
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Post#64 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:24 pm by Bertrob

All the OTRG guys wrote:Rondo = Bad Celtics Offense


From a GB thread, thought it would be of interest

bertrob wrote:First off its pretty hilarious how the usual Rondo-haters come out and throw barbs behind Tsherkin's argument. But since the new rules are pretty strict about the verbal insults I can spew at those guys, I won't go further

THE LONG 2:
I see this old tired myth that people keep throwing out there. "Rondo's usage rate is going up and the Celtics offense efficiency is going down THEREFORE RONDO IS DIRECTLY THE MAIN REASON THE OFFENSE SUCKS NOW" This is simply not true. The reason the offense is so bad is because the Celtics have basically no shot creators. Without many shot creators, they rely on spacing for their offense and that requires ball movement, pacing and sharp decisions. They live and die with their shooting percentage, and with an emphasis on perimeter shooting big men who spread the floor, they are primarily a jump-shooting team with”out much of a low post presence. The Celtics offense is DESIGNED to use the worst shot in basketball. Of **** course its gonna be extremely bad because of it. Thats because of entire team personnel instead of just Rondo.The league’s most efficient offenses normally hit plenty of three-pointers and draw free throws at high rates. The Celtics do neither.

THE CRAPTASTIC BENCH:
Boston's starting lineup (Rondo/Bradley/Pierce/Bass/Garnett) when they all got healthy and meshed put up a RIDICULOUS 92.96 defensive efficiency rating and a ridiculous 112.54 on the offensive side (basketball value). The starters were a full 19 points better than its opposition per 100 possession. A FULL 19 POINTS. The bench? an efficiency rating of 98.9, seventh worst in the league. Its pretty obvious why the Celtics struggle to score when any of its starters sit. (especially Pierce/Garnett/Rondo)

The Conclusion:
The Celtics have had a lot of factors as to why the offense has fallen off of a cliff. Rondo is definitely partial to some of the blame. But the fact that people keep spewing this utter BS that Rondo's rise directly correlates to the downfall of the Celtics offense is disgusting. If this season with the highly improved bench, and possibly a better shooting/FT drawing team, the offense should exponentially get better. If not, maybe we really do need to look at Rondo and his affect on the offense. But until then, this utter crap that people spew without restrain needs to be bottled.

Also I'm pretty sure this was a thread about Rondo fitting with the Knicks. But too bad like every Rondo thread people just love to pop in, make pointless additions like "That anti-Rondo argument I probably didn't even read?! I AGREE AND I WAS JUST THINKING THE SAME THING"

As for Rondo making the Knicks "instant contenders" not a chance. That team has way too many problems in its way to actually contend to be fixed by Rondo himself. He'd make them better though.
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Post#65 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:43 pm by semi-sentient

smith2373 wrote:Yeah Nash isn't better than Deron, Rondo, Rose, Westbrook or even Parker.


As a pure PG Nash is better than all of them.

There's no question he's a better playmaker. CP3 is the only one that I've seen create as many easy shots. Rondo creates a lot of great looks as well, but you can't really ignore how inefficient he generally is as a scorer. That plays a part in how effectively a PG can run an offense.

Rose, Westbrook, and Parker aren't pure PG's. They're better volume scorers and better defenders, but Nash is far more efficient and plays a larger role in shot creation which is what I want from my PG over all else.

Deron is more of a pure PG, but his play-making has fallen off since he joined the Nets (less shots created, more turnovers).

Anyway, Nash averaged 12.5 pts (.625 ts%), 10.7 ast, and 3.7 tov last season on a team that lacked a true 2nd option and underwhelming overall offensive talent. Still, the Suns were a top 10 offense while the Celtics, for example, were one of the leagues worst. He's a threat from anywhere on the floor and not someone you want to put on the line when the game is tight. He's ultra-competitive and has never shy'ed away from big moments. He's the best leader of the bunch. Rondo has never had a full season as good.

The PG's you mentioned haven't overtaken him yet IMO. If you disagree then that's cool, but as a pure PG Nash gives me everything that I want.
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Post#66 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:55 pm by og15

Deathclutch23 wrote:
Krodis wrote:
cnv2855 wrote:Anyone who saw his 44pt performance against Miami game 2 last year, knows he's a top 2 PG.

He's got a godmode switch like Lebron James, and can definitely step up and score. When Pierce and Garnett are gone, we're going to see a new Rondo... and it's going to be undeniable how great he truly is.

Yes, everyone who saw his entirely representative and not at all fluky sample size of one game where the Heat barely even bothered to guard him knows he can score.


Fluke? He averaged near triple double against Bulls in 09, Rondo was the biggest factor in Celtic's historic run in 2010 playoffs, he dominated against Cavs and Magic, And he played great against Knicks in 2011 playoffs and stepped up his game again in '12 playoffs.

Rondo has been the best playoff performer on Celtics since '09 , and one of the best playoff players in general since that year.
I think he's calling the scoring a fluke, I wouldn't say a fluke (though I guess that isn't inaccurate), but it isn't representative of his ability as a scorer. You can't pick a players best game and say it represents what they can do, if it did, they would do it consistently. That's very faulty analysis. we can know Rondo is a scorer based on his consistent scoring, not on the game where everything is clicking,

Rondo ended up averaging 16.9 points in 41.2 MPG the 08-09 playoffs, 14.7 pts/36. There's this idea that he scores so much more in the post-season, but honestly, he just plays more minutes and scores a little more. His highest per 36 average in the post season was 14.7 in 08-09 as mentioned, and he has a career average of 13.6 pts/36 in the post season on .487 TS%, along with 5.6 Rebs and 8.6 assists per 36 minutes, compared to his regular season 12.0 pts/36 on .514 TS% and 4.9 rebounds and 9.0 assists per 36 minutes. (Minus first year in post season, 14/6/9/.496 TS%)

His playoff numbers in context are not this beastly thing some people seem to think they are, but he does a good job in general. He's a really good floor manager, and a smart player. If his individual offensive ability and efficiency was better, that would actually be what makes him a better player. He's been better this season and had past good seasons, so we'll see how he does.
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Post#67 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 3:01 pm by FakeScreenName123

smith2373 wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
GreenBloodedC wrote:Man, I never imagined that assists would even be questioned. And if some assists were badly given, it's not like it's a special treatment on Rondo. It applies to everyone in the league, it's unlike the superstar fouls.


I think that questioning the definition of an assist in the NBA is not at all Rondo-specific, but a remark on how looking at raw assist totals and APG averages represent really thin, lazy and uninformative analysis of a performance or a player. More than anything for Rondo himself, it's his comparative lack of involvement in plays rthat comes up. He does a lot of waiting for a polished set offense to create a shot, more so than do his peers.

Between that and the fact that he's a vastly inferior scoring threat, it does much to level the playing field.


Your hatred for Rondo is so obvious. It never fails, in every Rondo thread you're in here bashing the guy to no end, never giving him credit for anything and downplaying anything he does.



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Post#68 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 3:10 pm by MAQ

Who knew a thread about Rondo would be the best thread on the GB.
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Post#69 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 3:16 pm by SichtingLives

tsherkin wrote:
GreenBloodedC wrote:Man, I never imagined that assists would even be questioned. And if some assists were badly given, it's not like it's a special treatment on Rondo. It applies to everyone in the league, it's unlike the superstar fouls.


I think that questioning the definition of an assist in the NBA is not at all Rondo-specific, but a remark on how looking at raw assist totals and APG averages represent really thin, lazy and uninformative analysis of a performance or a player.


This is the case with every statistic not called points, which is why advanced stats based on these already deeply flawed statistics are so irrelevant.

Most people who hate the supposed "eye test" (aka watching basketball) or don't understand that stats are merely a supplement to observation are people who really don't understand the nuances of the game and need something to hang their hat on in forums like this. That's not to say there aren't stat nerds who totally get it, of course there are, but if you understand how the advanced stats work, it's only that much easier to lay them out to sully up an argument that really is all that complicated.

If you want to downplay the importance of assists, I agree. If you want to jump through hoops to assert that Rondo is really just some marginally above average role player, I'd have to say you're intentionally using knowledge of certain skewed statistics in a subversive manner to do so. I know this is crazy, but all you have to do is watch him play at his best for 48 minutes to see all he adds to his team compared other PG's in the league.
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Post#70 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 3:16 pm by og15

Actually, just looking at a players PPG is pretty bad analysis in itself, what do we get from that if we don't know how many shots he's taking, how he affects the offense, etc,etc. Points isn't exempt by any means, but the lack of perfection of statistical analysis is not some proof of lack of usefulness, just means some extra homework is needed. Validity and usefulness don't require 100% accuracy in all circumstances. Throwing the baby out with the bath water isn't a solution.

KGboss wrote:
picc wrote:He's one of the few players in the league that actually amazes me. Don't even care that he's a Celtic. He's amazing.

2008 nobody knew who he was. Then he played a fantastic game in the closeout game against LA. Next year KG goes out and he's arguably the best player.

Next year after that, he's almost definitely the best player. In 2011 he does it again, but gets injured in the 2nd round. 2012 he's the best player again.

Now he's upped his game even more.

He's to PG's what Lebron is to forwards. He scores, makes the plays, rebounds, and can guard 1-3. Wtf? And he's an a--hole. Which is what you want from your PG. One of the most competitive guys in the league.

Can't say enough good things.


I love this post.

At least there are a few who get it.

This is a wrong analysis though, he's not a Lebron of PG's as Lebron is a big scorer, and a much more efficient scorer, and there's no true playing style or production similarities.

A guy like Bledsoe now in terms of style, and a little bit of production, but too small a sample size (he's putting up 21/5/6 per 36 with a .575 TS%) is what we could consider a "Lebron of PG's". Rondo is just himself, a totally different style of player and production level.
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Post#71 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 3:20 pm by Golabki

Until Rondo runs a team that's actually good offensively I don't think you can say he's a top 15 player. The Celtics have completely gutted their defense to give Rondo a great offensive supporting cast and the Celtics still just look average on offense.
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Post#72 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 5:30 pm by jamesnamida

it will be interesting it to see in the next few years how this celtic team will look when PP and KG drop off more while Rondo is in the midst of his prime.
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Post#73 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 5:58 pm by Bertrob

Golabki wrote:Until Rondo runs a team that's actually good offensively I don't think you can say he's a top 15 player. The Celtics have completely gutted their defense to give Rondo a great offensive supporting cast and the Celtics still just look average on offense.

They're in the top 10 of OTRG.....
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Post#74 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:02 pm by tsherkin

bertrob wrote:
bertrob wrote:First off its pretty hilarious how the usual Rondo-haters come out and throw barbs behind Tsherkin's argument. But since the new rules are pretty strict about the verbal insults I can spew at those guys, I won't go further


For the record, I want my argument to be clear:

I think Rondo is one of the best point guards in the league, a fact I constantly mention and which the people who attack my posts (not bertrob) never mention. I frequently indicate that I respect his ability as a playmaker as among the best in the league, focusing my argument on his limited contributions (comparatively, not absolutely) next to his peers in this discussion. Through the lens of the idea that PGs have more impact offensively than defensively, having a player who is hamstrung thus on the offensive end makes him less valuable than comparable players. Things inevitably degenerate into the usual "44 points, HURRR!!!!" kind of BS that is just too frustrating to bother with, it's so empty and foolish.

Rondo is a VERY good player. He is not a perfect player, and he's not clearly the best PG in the league. He's got some nice performances behind him, but he obviously exerts less impact on an offense than do his peers. This is true from every angle of analysis beyond looking at his APG and raw totals, which is a meaningless form of analysis anyway. Pretty much anyone watching him can see that he knows what he's doing, his coach isn't routinely yelling at him, so he must be doing things right. He's patient, he knows the plays, he runs the offense well and doesn't force the issue a lot. He exploits transition, he's not a shot-hog (could pull the trigger a little more, actually, and this year he's doing that with some success compared to previous seasons)... I mean he's clearly a really good PG. His turnovers, his assist production, etc, those are indicative of a good player even once you get past the superficial level of analysis. And he does play a little differently in the playoffs.

So, TL;DR, I think Rondo's among the best PGs in the league but not clearly separated from several of them (especially over an 8- or 9-game sample), and that he's clearly inferior to at least Chris Paul. That's not really "hating," which is the banner word of fools without actual arguments who just disagree because my opinion isn't the same as theirs.

I see this old tired myth that people keep throwing out there. "Rondo's usage rate is going up and the Celtics offense efficiency is going down THEREFORE RONDO IS DIRECTLY THE MAIN REASON THE OFFENSE SUCKS NOW"


This is true. The fairer way to put it is that Rondo's not able to compensate for the decline in Boston's offensive rebounding and he's not an efficient scorer himself, so he's not raising their level of efficiency by much. Having said that, he cannot shoulder the blame for their offense pitting out entirely. In 08 when they won the title, they were a 26.6% ORB team, 18th in the league. Last year, 19.7% ORB team, dead last in the league. That's not something that Rondo can really impact, he's a little PG. That's on their frontcourt. Kevin Garnett is half the offensive rebounder he was in 08, and he wasn't a stunner to begin with. He's rebounding like a guard on the offensive end these days. He also missed 6 games. Brandon Bass missed 7 games and wasn't that great to begin with. Powe, Glen Davis, Perkins... not on the team anymore, and they would be among the best offensive rebounders on the Celtics these days. They're even worse so far this season. That affects ORTG a fair bit. Right now, in 12-13, the Celtics are 3rd in the league in FT/FGA, partially because Pierce is drawing at .444 FTA/FGA and partially because the team is 5th in the league in FT%. Last year, they were 17th in FT/FGA (although also 5th in FT%). Pierce's draw rate will probably come down nearer to the ~ .390 he averaged last year, but still, Boston's looking pretty solid on O with the additions they've made. Last year, the compressed season affected a lot of things, namely shooting ability and durability. Ray Allen missing 20 games didn't help the team's ORTG, especially when he was shooting over 45% on 5+ 3PA/g, which would have affected eFG%, which plays into team ORTG.

So yeah, there are other factors. Mainly that Boston's O has typically been driven by the play of the Big Three, not Rondo, which is why they were able to win the title with him as a marginally effective player in 09, and why as the team declined due to age, those things affected the team more than Rondo could elevate the team. He's not as good as Rose, Deron, Paul and several others at scoring himself... he lacks consistency and efficiency in that regard. As a playmaker, ignoring other elements, he stands with anyone in the league. I'd call Nash the only clearly superior playmaker in the league in terms of vision, technical passing ability and creative passing, but where Rondo lags behind is his ability to use his own offense as a threat to create for others. He can do it, I mean he uses screens cleverly, he's got speed, his handle is tight... but he doesn't get the same kind of respect because he's not as dangerous or as willing a shooter as some of the others. That makes a difference... and it's a hair's-breadth difference like that which can turn a comparison such as one evaluating who the BEST PG in the league is.

The Celtics offense is DESIGNED to use the worst shot in basketball. Of **** course its gonna be extremely bad because of it. Thats because of entire team personnel instead of just Rondo.The league’s most efficient offenses normally hit plenty of three-pointers and draw free throws at high rates. The Celtics do neither.


Mmm....

The team's offense is designed to use post-ups for Pierce and Garnett as well as pin-down action for 3s and for those long 2s... but Ray has always spammed volume 3PA/g and that was a big part of the team's offense. Pierce has taken no LESS than 3.7 3PA/g and as many as 4.6 3PA/g from 08 forward (4.6 in 08 and so far this season). They've employed 3s, post-ups, Pierce's typically strong draw rate and what they can get from KG as their primary attacks. The decline in ORTG is far more important than any other element. They are old and don't kill in transition: they've averaged 20th in the league in pace since 08 and haven't been higher than 18th. That's a concession to their personnel, and it means they don't get a ton of those high-efficiency buckets in transition (which tend to have a decent DrawF as well). Rondo plays in transition, of course, running out ahead of the old guys, but obviously it's not the same as, say, Golden State or Denver or whomever.

Remember, though, in 2008, this was a 110.2 ORTG team, good for 10th in the league. That's pretty good as a team rating. The team's offense is just fine as long as they get the appropriate combinations. In deference to Rondo, however, Boston management hasn't done much to ameliorate the roster declining due to age, that is certainly true. And with injuries, it's been a struggle to maintain that same level of offensive efficacy... especially since Rondo's usage has jumped and he's been a bad scoring threat from day one. That, however, is not the root cause, only a contributing factor... and his passing tends to outweigh such things, or at least neutralize them. Again, he's one of the best PGs in the league, regardless of he's a poor scoring threat. The team isn't designed to use him in that capacity a lot anyway.

Its pretty obvious why the Celtics struggle to score when any of its starters sit. (especially Pierce/Garnett/Rondo)


Another fine point, although again, if Rondo were a better scoring threat himself, he could do more of what guys like Nash and Paul do, which is create a bit for themselves and open up better opportunities for others as a result... plus drive the offense with their own success.

The Celtics have had a lot of factors as to why the offense has fallen off of a cliff. Rondo is definitely partial to some of the blame.


This is a fair description of the situation. There are too many things happening in Boston to lay EVERYTHING at Rondo's feet and cry "It's HIS fault!" It doesn't paint a total picture of what's happening, so as long as one recognizes that he's a part of it, it needn't go farther than that. Boston's not exactly the picture of perfect health and roster efficiency. This season, though, with a healthy Terry and the additions of Green (if he keeps hitting his 3s) and Barbosa (likewise), they should be able to exploit the 3 a little more. Pierce is still doing his thing and the offense runs like clockwork, so they're still going to get a lot of good post-ups for KG and Pierce as well as good looks for the shooters.

Should also point out that basically all of 2011-2012 should be looked at with an asterisk, because players all over the league struggled with the compressed schedule.

As for Rondo making the Knicks "instant contenders" not a chance. That team has way too many problems in its way to actually contend to be fixed by Rondo himself. He'd make them better though.


Would he? Raymond Felton is currently the third-leading scorer on that team, 0.6 PPG behind JR Smith. He's managing 16.1 ppg on 50.0% TS, which isn't very good, but he's a better scorer than Rondo, so I shudder to think of what Rondo's scoring efficiency would be at a similar volume. The New York offense isn't marked by the same kind of trademark precision and well-oiled efficacy as is the Boston offense (which has a half-dozen years of practice and star continuity behind it), which changes things as well.

It's possible Rondo would fit in well, but it's not as easy as just plugging him in, right? He's a better shooter (including FT shooter) and the Knicks offense looks different than Boston's.

That said, it's a damned-ass slow offense in New York, and Rondo is a much, much better playmaker than Felton, so it's possible that Rondo might do better... but what bugs me is that Felton is a much better 3pt and FT shooter than Rondo, and that spacing effect is of value. The Knicks run enough guys out there who aren't that awesome at playing at range, right? Melo has range, but prefers to operate in the post. Chandler has little range. Kidd is a useful spacer when his feet are set, Novak is awesome, etc, etc, but their spacing is critical right now. You put a crap 3pt shooter like Rondo out there and now you have to wonder if his shooting inadequacy outweighs the large gap in playmaking between him and Felton, yes? Rondo is CLEARLY the better player compared to Felton, but is he the better fit? The Knicks run a ton of offense through places other than their PG, and they flat out actually run two point guards on the floor in their backcourt, right? It's Ray Felton and Kidd starting right now, so what extra value is there in throwing in a wicked playmaker when you're already splitting the ball-handling duties anyway?

To me, that's an issue of chemistry. If I was New York and I had a crack at Rondo, obviously I take it and then work a trade to sort out my backcourt, but just from a plug'n'play scenario, it doesn't make a ton of sense, know what I mean?

SichtingLives wrote:This is the case with every statistic not called points, which is why advanced stats based on these already deeply flawed statistics are so irrelevant.


Why exclude points? Raw points aren't that illuminating either.

Most people who hate the supposed "eye test" (aka watching basketball) or don't understand that stats are merely a supplement to observation are people who really don't understand the nuances of the game and need something to hang their hat on in forums like this. That's not to say there aren't stat nerds who totally get it, of course there are, but if you understand how the advanced stats work, it's only that much easier to lay them out to sully up an argument that really is all that complicated.


Stats make a statement about something. You need to understand WHAT that statement is and you need to establish context. You cannot effectively analyze a sport without a good mixture of both contextual (aka qualitative) analysis and the statistical (quantitative), it just doesn't work. There are a lot of statistical metrics that don't tell you a lot in basketball... but when you start slapping a bunch of them together and seeing a statistical trend that matches certain eye-based observations, then you have to start questioning old beliefs, right?

If you want to jump through hoops to assert that Rondo is really just some marginally above average role player, I'd have to say you're intentionally using knowledge of certain skewed statistics in a subversive manner to do so.


Who's doing that? It surely isn't me... on numerous occasions, I've made my opinion of Rondo clear and it is NOT that he's some marginal roleplayer. I don't think he's the best PG in the league, but I think he's definitely up there among the best. But he definitely doesn't compare to someone like Paul, or Nash, and he doesn't separate himself from a lot of other guys. His teams win, but he's had wicked talent around him and a really tight and stable coaching/management environment that a lot of those other guys haven't benefited from during their careers. To whit, Boston sent 3 guys to the All-Star game in 2008. And 2009. Then in 2010, they swapped Ray Allen for Rondo and still sent three guys. Then they sent 4 guys in 2011. Last year, they "only" sent Pierce and Rondo.

But again, looking at the performances of the Big Three, that's an absolutely ridiculous amount of talent, post-prime or not, that really outstrips what a guy like Paul enjoyed in New Orleans, or Deron in Utah (and certainly in New Jersey), etc, etc. It makes these comparisons a little tougher because Rondo has had a wholly different context in which he's played. Again, obviously, he's one of the best PGs in the league. Anyone sensible isn't leaving that on the table as a point to be refuted. Rondo is talented, his impact within a certain threshold is established. He is a legitimate All-Star PG. But you open up a discussion of him in comparison with his peers, and a host of factors must be examined in order to legitimately rank him above some of these other guys with any certainty, and there's plenty of reasonable doubt around that notion right now.

As to the OP, I don't think there's a real chance that he ends up as a top 3 MVP candidate with Lebron, Durant and Dwight still in the league, to say nothing of the waning star of Kobe Bryant and a bunch of other guys. Rondo just isn't good enough to merit that kind of attention. Top 10 makes sense, though, and that's what he's been catching the past few seasons. I could see a top 5 type peak, but people forget that he's essentially a poor-man's Stockton in a way. Less effective as a scoring threat, similarly dynamic as a help defender and as a playmaker, a little more dangerous in transition and a better rebounder. And Stock peaked at #7.

Let's see Rondo make it to the All-NBA team for the second time in his career. Then let's see him get on the All-NBA 2nd Team for the first time. Then maybe a First Team. Then, we'll start talking about top 3 finishes. Now, those are somewhat political accolades, right, and popular opinion can sway those, but it's something to consider. There is a lot of talent at the 1 in the league right now, and he needs to do something to separate himself from the pack.

Is this Rondo's prime? He's 26... so no, I don't think so. His physical prime, sure, but I can see him having a later peak where his scoring skills start to catch up to his playmaking skills a bit in his late 20s and that could have a profound impact on his ability to influence a game.
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Post#75 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:07 pm by AntwanBoldin

Fred Williamson wrote:since he's 26, 27yo? I'd say say so

AntwanBoldin wrote:Jason Kidd actually played defense


implying Rondo doesn't play defense? not sure if serious.



In what way does he play defense? He doesn't move his feet at all. He only goes for steals. His paint denial is non existent
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Post#76 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:14 pm by lukekarts

I still don't rate Rondo that highly. He still brings too many negatives to almost every game, just can't pull together all round performances often enough. A few off the top of my head - he played awful defence against Milwaukee, Jennings dominated him, though he did address this a few nights later IIRC. The Philly game everyone got excited about - I could care less about 20 assists when he missed 11 of 17 (34% shooting) against a team that is controlling the boards better. Then the most recent game, he committed 5 turnovers. Don't care how many assists you get, 5 turnovers is potentially 10 easy points for your opponent straight away.

And that is what separates Rondo from the likes of Paul, because the latter will tend to have an efficient, low turnover performance, almost every game.
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Post#77 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:17 pm by tsherkin

bertrob wrote:
Golabki wrote:Until Rondo runs a team that's actually good offensively I don't think you can say he's a top 15 player. The Celtics have completely gutted their defense to give Rondo a great offensive supporting cast and the Celtics still just look average on offense.

They're in the top 10 of OTRG.....


Top 15 player, top 15 player...

Who would you take over Rondo right now? I'm thinking Rose and Dirk (when healthy), Pierce (until he shows me otherwise, which will happen soon), Steph Curry, Chris Paul, Dwight, Nash, Kobe, Lebron, Deron, Melo and Tony Parker. I'm strong considering adding Kyrie Irving and James Harden to that list.

EDIT: MWAHAHAHAH! I'm a derp and forgot Durant! Doesn't change much, though...

That's, at most, 14 guys, which for me means Rondo's in my top 15, or at least I'd accept the notion that it's debatable. He's hovered in my top 15-17 for the past four seasons, yeah. I'm expecting to drop Kobe and Pierce from that list very soon, and of course neither Dirk nor Rose ARE actually healthy at the moment, and I'm expecting to drop Dirk from that list soon as well. That's at least three guys whom age will claim perhaps as early as this season, leaving Rondo more like borderline top 10 for me.

I think that Rondo CAN run a reasonably good offense even without sick talent. We're still waiting to see it, of course, I mean I look to what Nash did as a pretty high bar to match in terms of success without a ton of talent. No Marion, no Amare, enduring the VC trade, putting up with that duck-faced moron Hedo Turkoglu, he still managed a team 109.5 ORTG (which was 9th in the league). That's pretty impressive, especially since Nash was 36 at the time.

We won't really be able to tell a ton about what Rondo can REALLY do until Pierce and Garnett are gone, or until he shows a major forward leap in scoring ability. We'll have to see. He's playing well right now, he's actually at +1.7% TS over league average, which is a HUGE leap for him. It's 9 games, so it's mostly meaningless, but it's really nice to see. He's been shooting a lot better everywhere under the arc (except as a free throw shooter), and while it's a little high to expect it to sustain away from the rim, he's starting strong. There's about a 0% chance he has turned into a Steve Nash-caliber mid-range and perimeter shooter overnight, so again, regression is coming, but we'll see. Maybe he's turned some kind of corner and will be better than usual in that regard, which would open up a whole new world of possibilities for him. And Pierce and KG ARE still aging, declining, so the Celtics can maintain a top 10 offense with Rondo at the helm, that would at least be something.

We'll see, this season will be very interesting.
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Post#78 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:17 pm by I_Socrates

Deathclutch23 wrote:Sorry using some obscure stat won't change the fact that as Rondo goes the Celtics go. He is their best player and Celtics will go as far Rondo takes them.

Nash led some of the best offense, that's cool and stuff and he had an amazing career. But this is Rondo thread and he will lead Celtics in his own way.


Dude, you need to relax. He never said Rondo wasn't good, didn't lead the Celtics, or is worse than Nash; he was just throwing out a comparison and some (non-homer) perspective. This may not be Rondo's prime, but he's close to it, and he may never play with players the calibre of Garnett and Pierce again, so his production will definitely see a drop off.

Problem with guys like Rondo, Nash, Kidd is that their game depends solely on the team around them; if the other players just can't put the ball in the basket or cover their deficiencies, they're gonna have trouble being effective.

Rondo is a more complete player than Nash, but he doesn't have the shooting touch so he doesn't require the defensive pressure that Nash does. Teams are fine going under the pick, giving him a ton of space, which does work for him because he can see the court better, but it does work against him because teams can double onto other players.

To me, he's a top 3 point guard behind Paul and Rose/Westbrook (tied for 2). If he can get his jump shot to a respectable level (even 33% from for 3 and around 40% from 17-18 feet) then he's going to be the clear cut best point guard in the NBA.
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Post#79 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:20 pm by CoachKobe

love rondo, but i feel he's overrated at the same time. he's an average scorer at best so he's always relying on a couple of good/great teammates. mvp candidates, really great players are more independent in their play.
also, i give him a lot of credit for his assist numbers, but i don't trust today's scorekeepers when it comes to assists, that's why i'm not a huge fan of those records. check out his 20 assists video vs toronto. count them. it's a joke.

not saying he's the only one who gets that treatment. not at all. but i'm pretty sure cousy or robertson didn't get that treatment.

still a fan tho.
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Post#80 Re: Are we witnessing Rondo's prime?
Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:27 pm by lukekarts

tsherkin wrote:Who would you take over Rondo right now?


I know you weren't asking me, but..

Point guard-wise, I'd take Paul, Rose (pending injury recovery), Parker, Irving, possibly Westbrook depending on his form this season. Beyond that, I'd take LeBron, Kobe, Durant, Chris Bosh, Dirk, Dwight Howard of course, 50:50 on Melo, Harden, Marc Gasol. Need to see how Wade & Bynum recover from injury but assuming they do then they bump straight above him. Older guys like Duncan and Pierce I'd still rank above in the short term. May have missed someone obvious. But yeah that ranks him somewhere 13-20.
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