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The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II

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Post#1361 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 3:50 am by Goldtop

Bskey wrote:
Blkbrd671 wrote:idk, but when you have Tyson Chandler at the top of any offensive statistical ratings list, imo doesn't really hold a lot of weight


It certainly needs to be put into context. Drummond is NOT a top 10 offensive player, not even close.

That however is a good indication that he's succeeding where he needs to atm.


The thing is I think you guys are just defining great offensive players in terms of their individual scoring talent, like its streetball. This rating system is based on what impact players have on the team offense as a whole, which is actually a more accurate way to rank players, imo.

For instance, I think they give credit to players who get offensive rebounds that lead to pts for their team, even if they techincally didn't score or make the assist. But that offensive rebound was crucial to getting those pts. So they rightfully give some credit to that player too. And thats likely how players like Drummond and Chandler are rated as top offensive players because of their offensive rebounds, as well as all their dunks.

If we're talking about ranking the top 10 offensive players that would win a 1 on 1 tournament, then no Drummond or Chandler would not be on that list. But if we're talking about biggest impact players to a TEAM offense, which is really how offensive players should be judged, then I think this rating system is valid.

Take Chandler off the Knicks, taking away the bulk of their offensive rebs, and see how many pts NY scores when they only get 1 shot per posession. So technically he is a top offensive player if he's having that much impact on a teams offense. He may never win a 1 on 1 tournament like Carmelo, but NBA is a team game.

"Offensive Rating" is a statistic used in basketball to measure an individual player's efficiency at producing points for the offense. It was created by author and statistician Dean Oliver.

For players, the formula is: Offensive Rating = (Points Produced / Individual Possessions) x 100

Points can be produced through field goals, free throws, assists, and offensive rebounds. Individual possessions are the sum of a player's scoring possessions (field goals, free throws, plus partial credit for assists), missed field goals and free throws that the defense rebounds, and turnovers.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offensive_rating
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Post#1362 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:19 am by mcfly1204

That just means those players are efficient, it does not say whether or not they are impact players on offense.
Well at least we're not Detroit!
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Post#1363 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:45 am by mitrandil20

Wow, I saw Drummond's highlights; I can't believe he has that body and is that elite in athleticism: strength, power, leaping, agility..
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Post#1364 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 2:49 pm by Shem

April 4, 2014:
HotrodBeaubois wrote:I never said Dallas was good as Portland


Earlier on December 8, 2013:
HotrodBeaubois wrote:That's the Whole Point Portland is No better than Dallas
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Post#1365 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:07 pm by Jon1798

Just for kicks:

Anthony Davis(19 years old)
20th in the league in PER
4th amongst PF's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
16.2 PPG
9.8 rebounds
2.4 blocks
1.4 steals
1.7 TO's
51.9% FG

Damian Lillard(22 years old)
90th in the league in PER
22nd amongst PG's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
17.1 PPG
6.2 assists
.9 steals
2.8 TO's
42% FG

Andre Drummond(19 years old)
11th in the league in PER
2nd amongst C's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
13.6 PPG
13.3 rebounds
2.9 blocks
1.6 steals
1.5 TO's
60.7% FG


Discuss......
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Post#1366 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:18 pm by fishnc

Jon1798 wrote:Just for kicks:

Anthony Davis(19 years old)
20th in the league in PER
4th amongst PF's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
16.2 PPG
9.8 rebounds
2.4 blocks
1.4 steals
1.7 TO's
51.9% FG

Damian Lillard(22 years old)
90th in the league in PER
22nd amongst PG's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
17.1 PPG
6.2 assists
.9 steals
2.8 TO's
42% FG

Andre Drummond(19 years old)
11th in the league in PER
2nd amongst C's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
13.6 PPG
13.3 rebounds
2.9 blocks
1.6 steals
1.5 TO's
60.7% FG


Discuss......


My first thought is...why would you use Per 36? And then I thought, oh, because it makes your guy look better.
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Post#1367 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:29 pm by Ziggy Stardust

Jon1798 wrote:Just for kicks:

Anthony Davis(19 years old)
20th in the league in PER
4th amongst PF's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
16.2 PPG
9.8 rebounds
2.4 blocks
1.4 steals
1.7 TO's
51.9% FG

Damian Lillard(22 years old)
90th in the league in PER
22nd amongst PG's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
17.1 PPG
6.2 assists
.9 steals
2.8 TO's
42% FG

Andre Drummond(19 years old)
11th in the league in PER
2nd amongst C's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
13.6 PPG
13.3 rebounds
2.9 blocks
1.6 steals
1.5 TO's
60.7% FG


Discuss......


After reading this thread, those stats really reaffirm the prospect that Davis was/is. A big, athletic freak like Drummond performs 100% over expectations, but Davis playing ten minutes more and dealing with petty, unforseable injuries puts up similar production over 36.
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Post#1368 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:38 pm by dpnim

Jon1798 wrote:Just for kicks:

Anthony Davis(19 years old)
20th in the league in PER
4th amongst PF's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
16.2 PPG
9.8 rebounds
2.4 blocks
1.4 steals
1.7 TO's
51.9% FG

Damian Lillard(22 years old)
90th in the league in PER
22nd amongst PG's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
17.1 PPG
6.2 assists
.9 steals
2.8 TO's
42% FG

Andre Drummond(19 years old)
11th in the league in PER
2nd amongst C's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
13.6 PPG
13.3 rebounds
2.9 blocks
1.6 steals
1.5 TO's
60.7% FG


Discuss......


Shouldn't compare guard metrics to big man metrics. PER is not an end all be all metric. The league is short on quality big men and the abundant in quality PGs. Also, dont underestimate the value of assists, Damian get's 6.6/game that's at the very least 13.2 additional points he creates for his team when on the court. Assuming they are 2pt shots. And can be argued that he is responsible for 31.5 of the teams pts every game (18.3+13.2). Which with the team averaging 97pts/game is atleast about 32.5% of the total points. That's not counting the plays PG's "assisted" on where the receiving player is immediately fouled and goes to the line (those points don't give assists to the PG) or in case of an "And 1".
Being a Blazer fan isn't exactly healthy.
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Post#1369 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 8:09 pm by Jon1798

Look, I would hope that anyone that can get all the way to a basketball message board would understand why per 36 is used. Hopefully we can discuss the comparisons this time.

To above, absolutely per is not the end all metrix. I just find it to be the best attempt at assigning a number and ranking to something that can never completely be compared. As is any stat, it is what it is and nothing more.

I think the main thing this shows is that these three are fantastic players. I think Davis suffers from much higher expectations than anyone else. I find some of the things Drummond is doing is almost unprecedented. I am also a little surprised at Lillard's assist numbers. For the time he's on the court, with that supporting cast, he should not have those sort of assist numbers. He's a better player than that and I think he'll prove it.
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Post#1370 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:18 pm by Mikez1919

Drummond with 11/11/2 blocks in 24min. This is no longer surprising.
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Post#1371 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:20 pm by Wizenheimer

Jon1798 wrote:Look, I would hope that anyone that can get all the way to a basketball message board would understand why per 36 is used. Hopefully we can discuss the comparisons this time.

To above, absolutely per is not the end all metrix. I just find it to be the best attempt at assigning a number and ranking to something that can never completely be compared. As is any stat, it is what it is and nothing more.

I think the main thing this shows is that these three are fantastic players. I think Davis suffers from much higher expectations than anyone else. I find some of the things Drummond is doing is almost unprecedented. I am also a little surprised at Lillard's assist numbers. For the time he's on the court, with that supporting cast, he should not have those sort of assist numbers. He's a better player than that and I think he'll prove it.


there are some factors in those assist numbers. Portland is 25th in 3pt% and 23rd in FG%. They are also about 28th in points in the paint. Portland just doesn't get many easy opportunity or fast break baskets and that's where a lot of PG's fatten-up their assist numbers

another factor is that Batum has been taking over a bigger role in initiating the offense. He's averaging 4.5 assist for the season but in December and January is averaging 5.6 assists.

and finally, opposing teams have made Lillard the focus of their defensive game plan since about 12-15 games into the season. This is no exaggeration. Lillard is aggressively defended for about 3/4 of the court, constantly. He's doubled more times then not, and almost always doubled in a pick-and-roll situation. Last season, Aldridge was the defensive focus, thei season it's Lillard. I can't remember a rookie getting quite so much attention from the other team's game plan. I seriously doubt that either Davis or Drummond are ever subject to that kind of defensive focus and attention. And for sure, neither of the bigs have anything close to the responsibility that Lillard has.

Lillard is putting up his numbers against much higher resistance

and yet, with all of that pressure, Lillard is still best on the Blazers in on-court/off-court net production at +13.1. Drummond is at +4.9, while Davis is -5.4
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Post#1372 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:22 pm by branny

Mikez1919 wrote:Drummond with 11/11/2 blocks in 24min. This is no longer surprising.

Yep just needs to cut down on the fouling
NaturalThunder wrote:OKC killing Serge's MVP candidacy...2-0 without Ibaka on the season.
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Post#1373 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:35 pm by DetroitSho

branny wrote:
Mikez1919 wrote:Drummond with 11/11/2 blocks in 24min. This is no longer surprising.

Yep just needs to cut down on the fouling

Huh? Are you talking about the same Andre Drummond he is?
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Post#1374 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:36 pm by Moose10Fan

2 fouls per 20 mins is pretty good for a 19 year old big man who plays the type of defence Drummond plays.
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Post#1375 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:48 pm by ComboGuardCity

He picked up bad fouls today. I think that's what he's talking about.
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Post#1376 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:49 pm by Goldtop

Mikez1919 wrote:Drummond with 11/11/2 blocks in 24min. This is no longer surprising.


+ 2 stls
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Post#1377 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Tue Jan 22, 2013 11:23 pm by DeBlazerRiddem

Part of what Lillard is accomplishing is that Per36 statistics don't have to be used. The other part is that Lillard is a huge focus of the opposing teams defense. Coaches now know they have to account for Damian, they probably spend more time preparing against him than designing their defense to stop Drummond or Davis.

This is not to take away from what Drummond and Davis are doing, especially on defense. Teams obviously spend more resources figuring out how to get past their shot blocking than how to screen Damian. I fully expect them to have a higher ceiling and greater impact than Damian. Davis is kind of obvious, but it's possible that in a few years Portland looks regretfully at passing on Drummond, even if Lillard wins ROY.


So in terms of discussion: No one is saying that Lillard is a better prospect than those two. Well, not many are saying that. But you cannot use that to take away how much Lillard is overachieving, and by every right, he should be in that ROY conversation (if not leading it).
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Post#1378 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Wed Jan 23, 2013 12:30 am by ComboGuardCity

I love Drummond and Davis is playing well, but yeah, Lillard is ROY.
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Post#1379 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Wed Jan 23, 2013 2:35 am by Blkbrd671

Davis is player with Huge Expectations that he's failing to hold up too(unrealistic expectations)

Drummond is a player far exceeding his low expectations

Hence why Drummond seems like the better player.

Reality both are good/great players
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Post#1380 Re: The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt
Wed Jan 23, 2013 7:18 am by orangeparka

Davis/Drummond should be an interesting comparison for years to come.
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