The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II

[fishnc]

Just for kicks:

Anthony Davis(19 years old)
20th in the league in PER
4th amongst PF's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
16.2 PPG
9.8 rebounds
2.4 blocks
1.4 steals
1.7 TO's
51.9% FG

Damian Lillard(22 years old)
90th in the league in PER
22nd amongst PG's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
17.1 PPG
6.2 assists
.9 steals
2.8 TO's
42% FG

Andre Drummond(19 years old)
11th in the league in PER
2nd amongst C's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
13.6 PPG
13.3 rebounds
2.9 blocks
1.6 steals
1.5 TO's
60.7% FG


Discuss......

My first thought is...why would you use Per 36? And then I thought, oh, because it makes your guy look better.

[Ziggy Stardust]

Just for kicks:

Anthony Davis(19 years old)
20th in the league in PER
4th amongst PF's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
16.2 PPG
9.8 rebounds
2.4 blocks
1.4 steals
1.7 TO's
51.9% FG

Damian Lillard(22 years old)
90th in the league in PER
22nd amongst PG's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
17.1 PPG
6.2 assists
.9 steals
2.8 TO's
42% FG

Andre Drummond(19 years old)
11th in the league in PER
2nd amongst C's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
13.6 PPG
13.3 rebounds
2.9 blocks
1.6 steals
1.5 TO's
60.7% FG


Discuss......

After reading this thread, those stats really reaffirm the prospect that Davis was/is. A big, athletic freak like Drummond performs 100% over expectations, but Davis playing ten minutes more and dealing with petty, unforseable injuries puts up similar production over 36.

[dpnim]

Just for kicks:

Anthony Davis(19 years old)
20th in the league in PER
4th amongst PF's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
16.2 PPG
9.8 rebounds
2.4 blocks
1.4 steals
1.7 TO's
51.9% FG

Damian Lillard(22 years old)
90th in the league in PER
22nd amongst PG's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
17.1 PPG
6.2 assists
.9 steals
2.8 TO's
42% FG

Andre Drummond(19 years old)
11th in the league in PER
2nd amongst C's in PER
Per 36 minutes:
13.6 PPG
13.3 rebounds
2.9 blocks
1.6 steals
1.5 TO's
60.7% FG


Discuss......

Shouldn't compare guard metrics to big man metrics. PER is not an end all be all metric. The league is short on quality big men and the abundant in quality PGs. Also, dont underestimate the value of assists, Damian get's 6.6/game that's at the very least 13.2 additional points he creates for his team when on the court. Assuming they are 2pt shots. And can be argued that he is responsible for 31.5 of the teams pts every game (18.3+13.2). Which with the team averaging 97pts/game is atleast about 32.5% of the total points. That's not counting the plays PG's "assisted" on where the receiving player is immediately fouled and goes to the line (those points don't give assists to the PG) or in case of an "And 1".

[Jon1798]

Look, I would hope that anyone that can get all the way to a basketball message board would understand why per 36 is used. Hopefully we can discuss the comparisons this time.

To above, absolutely per is not the end all metrix. I just find it to be the best attempt at assigning a number and ranking to something that can never completely be compared. As is any stat, it is what it is and nothing more.

I think the main thing this shows is that these three are fantastic players. I think Davis suffers from much higher expectations than anyone else. I find some of the things Drummond is doing is almost unprecedented. I am also a little surprised at Lillard's assist numbers. For the time he's on the court, with that supporting cast, he should not have those sort of assist numbers. He's a better player than that and I think he'll prove it.

[Mikez1919]

Drummond with 11/11/2 blocks in 24min. This is no longer surprising.

[Wizenheimer]

Look, I would hope that anyone that can get all the way to a basketball message board would understand why per 36 is used. Hopefully we can discuss the comparisons this time.

To above, absolutely per is not the end all metrix. I just find it to be the best attempt at assigning a number and ranking to something that can never completely be compared. As is any stat, it is what it is and nothing more.

I think the main thing this shows is that these three are fantastic players. I think Davis suffers from much higher expectations than anyone else. I find some of the things Drummond is doing is almost unprecedented. I am also a little surprised at Lillard's assist numbers. For the time he's on the court, with that supporting cast, he should not have those sort of assist numbers. He's a better player than that and I think he'll prove it.

there are some factors in those assist numbers. Portland is 25th in 3pt% and 23rd in FG%. They are also about 28th in points in the paint. Portland just doesn't get many easy opportunity or fast break baskets and that's where a lot of PG's fatten-up their assist numbers

another factor is that Batum has been taking over a bigger role in initiating the offense. He's averaging 4.5 assist for the season but in December and January is averaging 5.6 assists.

and finally, opposing teams have made Lillard the focus of their defensive game plan since about 12-15 games into the season. This is no exaggeration. Lillard is aggressively defended for about 3/4 of the court, constantly. He's doubled more times then not, and almost always doubled in a pick-and-roll situation. Last season, Aldridge was the defensive focus, thei season it's Lillard. I can't remember a rookie getting quite so much attention from the other team's game plan. I seriously doubt that either Davis or Drummond are ever subject to that kind of defensive focus and attention. And for sure, neither of the bigs have anything close to the responsibility that Lillard has.

Lillard is putting up his numbers against much higher resistance

and yet, with all of that pressure, Lillard is still best on the Blazers in on-court/off-court net production at +13.1. Drummond is at +4.9, while Davis is -5.4

[branny]

Drummond with 11/11/2 blocks in 24min. This is no longer surprising.

Yep just needs to cut down on the fouling

[DetroitSho]

Drummond with 11/11/2 blocks in 24min. This is no longer surprising.

Yep just needs to cut down on the fouling

Huh? Are you talking about the same Andre Drummond he is?

[Moose10Fan]

2 fouls per 20 mins is pretty good for a 19 year old big man who plays the type of defence Drummond plays.

[ComboGuardCity]

He picked up bad fouls today. I think that's what he's talking about.

[Goldtop]

Drummond with 11/11/2 blocks in 24min. This is no longer surprising.

+ 2 stls

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Part of what Lillard is accomplishing is that Per36 statistics don't have to be used. The other part is that Lillard is a huge focus of the opposing teams defense. Coaches now know they have to account for Damian, they probably spend more time preparing against him than designing their defense to stop Drummond or Davis.

This is not to take away from what Drummond and Davis are doing, especially on defense. Teams obviously spend more resources figuring out how to get past their shot blocking than how to screen Damian. I fully expect them to have a higher ceiling and greater impact than Damian. Davis is kind of obvious, but it's possible that in a few years Portland looks regretfully at passing on Drummond, even if Lillard wins ROY.


So in terms of discussion: No one is saying that Lillard is a better prospect than those two. Well, not many are saying that. But you cannot use that to take away how much Lillard is overachieving, and by every right, he should be in that ROY conversation (if not leading it).

[ComboGuardCity]

I love Drummond and Davis is playing well, but yeah, Lillard is ROY.

[Blkbrd671]

Davis is player with Huge Expectations that he's failing to hold up too(unrealistic expectations)

Drummond is a player far exceeding his low expectations

Hence why Drummond seems like the better player.

Reality both are good/great players

[orangeparka]

Davis/Drummond should be an interesting comparison for years to come.